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HAS ANYBODY NOTICED THAT I WIN EVERY OTHER WEEK IN COLLEGE? ITS A RIDICULOUS TREND WHICH I HOPE WILL NOT CONTINUE, BUT I NEVERTHELESS WENT 4-3 LAST WEEKEND JUST LOOSING THE VIG. HOWEVER, NFL AGAIN WAS A WINNER SO CONTINUE MY AMAZIING STREEK. WITH THIS CONTINUED DOMINATION, I HAVE NOW WON (SHOWED A PROFIT) 17 OUT OF THE LAST 19 WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF THURSDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
Opinion: ARKANSAS ST -10
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* OLE MISS +13 PROBABLE UPGRADE
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LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 3)
Week 7 Thursday, 10/13/2005 7:30 PM
* Note: LAL Qb Mike Babb is doubtful
vs 
Analysis
This Sun Belt battle will be decided on the ground by the better run defense. Both these teams love to run the football, and are very good at it. UL-Lafayette (1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) Head Coach Ricky Bustle has an attack that is averaging 185 yards rushing and 158 passing. But the defense is giving up 34 points, and over 220 yards rushing and passing each contest! There are also quarterback problems, as junior QB Jerry Babb (shoulder) didn't play last week. He isn't expected back for this Thursday's road date with Arkansas State. Redshirt freshman QB Michael Desormeaux is producing less than 160 yards per game through the air and managed just 47 yards in last week's loss. It's going to be very difficult for this Lafayette run defense to handle Arkansas State's terrific backfield of RBs Antonio Warren (524 yards, 8.7 ypc), Shermar Bracey (328, 7.3 ypc) and Chris Easley (7.5 ypc). Warren (ankle) is still out, and is questionable, but the other guys have been productive behind a solid offensive line. Senior QB Nick Noce (6 TDs, 3 INTs) is also very good, providing great balance to this Arkansas State (2-3) offense that averages 35 points and 215 yards rushing.
These teams have played twice in the past three years, both resulting in close UL-Lafayette home victories as a three-point favorite. UL-Lafayette surrendered 21 points in a loss to meanger Florida Atlantic offense last week and will be up against it here as Arkansas State is averaging 61 points per game in its two victories. Arkansas State is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 SU wins and are also 7-1 ATS at home with revenge. With the Indians coming off a bye week they should be primed to avenge those losses to UL-Lafayette. Lay it.
Forecast: UL-Lafayette 17, Arkansas State 38
OPINION SELECTION ON ARKANSAS STATE -10
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ALABAMA (5 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI (2 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 12:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Well I know this selection will make most people cringe and with 78% of the action on Alabama you will not be alone. Alabama is off their bye week and it could very well be flat this week as it travels to Oxford, Miss., to face the struggling Rebels. But just about everybody thinks this game will be a rout, as Ole Miss has no offense and goes up against a brilliant Alabama defense. Alabama (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare and celebrate after a rousing 31-3 rout of Florida. On an eight-game winning streak as Alabama's starting quarterback, senior Brodie Croyle has raised his career record in that role to 12-9. In the 12 wins, Croyle has completed 169 of 284 passes for 2,514 yards and 21 touchdowns with four interceptions. Alabama RB Ken Darby leads the SEC with an average of 102.6 rushing yards per game. Alabama is allowing 11 points per game and leads the SEC in total defense. Nationally, Alabama ranks sixth in total defense and eighth in scoring defense. Mississippi (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and erratic QB Mike Spurlock (2 TDs, 4 INTs) didn't look that great Saturday in a win over Citadel which should add to the over-confidence of Alabama and its fans. The major problem for the Rebels is their lack of offense, specifically their passing game, which has just 720 net yards in four Division I-A games. They don't figure to have much luck throwing the ball this week against an Alabama defense that allows just 3.86 yards per pass
I would be flat out lying if I didn’t admit that Alabama owns most all of the statistical edges against the Rebels in this game. Simply put, they have more talent, are better coached and are flat out the better team. However, this just doesn't shape up as a good spot for the Crimson Tide with the bye last week and Tennessee on deck. Add that to the fact that the Rebels are a staunch 11-2 ATS in their last 13 tries as an SEC dog of +11 or more and the fact that game six 5-0 conference road favorites that covered their last game by 10 or more points are just 3-15 ATS when taking on a .400 or better opponent we have not other choice to back the home dog getting almost 2 TD’s. Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) for the weak at heart.
Forecast: Alabama 21, Mississippi 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OLE MISS +13
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF THURSDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
Opinion: ARKANSAS ST -10
SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* OLE MISS +13 PROBABLE UPGRADE
--------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 3)
Week 7 Thursday, 10/13/2005 7:30 PM
* Note: LAL Qb Mike Babb is doubtful
vs Analysis
This Sun Belt battle will be decided on the ground by the better run defense. Both these teams love to run the football, and are very good at it. UL-Lafayette (1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) Head Coach Ricky Bustle has an attack that is averaging 185 yards rushing and 158 passing. But the defense is giving up 34 points, and over 220 yards rushing and passing each contest! There are also quarterback problems, as junior QB Jerry Babb (shoulder) didn't play last week. He isn't expected back for this Thursday's road date with Arkansas State. Redshirt freshman QB Michael Desormeaux is producing less than 160 yards per game through the air and managed just 47 yards in last week's loss. It's going to be very difficult for this Lafayette run defense to handle Arkansas State's terrific backfield of RBs Antonio Warren (524 yards, 8.7 ypc), Shermar Bracey (328, 7.3 ypc) and Chris Easley (7.5 ypc). Warren (ankle) is still out, and is questionable, but the other guys have been productive behind a solid offensive line. Senior QB Nick Noce (6 TDs, 3 INTs) is also very good, providing great balance to this Arkansas State (2-3) offense that averages 35 points and 215 yards rushing.
These teams have played twice in the past three years, both resulting in close UL-Lafayette home victories as a three-point favorite. UL-Lafayette surrendered 21 points in a loss to meanger Florida Atlantic offense last week and will be up against it here as Arkansas State is averaging 61 points per game in its two victories. Arkansas State is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 SU wins and are also 7-1 ATS at home with revenge. With the Indians coming off a bye week they should be primed to avenge those losses to UL-Lafayette. Lay it.
Forecast: UL-Lafayette 17, Arkansas State 38
OPINION SELECTION ON ARKANSAS STATE -10
--------------------------------------------------
ALABAMA (5 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI (2 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/15/2005 12:00 PM
vs Analysis
Well I know this selection will make most people cringe and with 78% of the action on Alabama you will not be alone. Alabama is off their bye week and it could very well be flat this week as it travels to Oxford, Miss., to face the struggling Rebels. But just about everybody thinks this game will be a rout, as Ole Miss has no offense and goes up against a brilliant Alabama defense. Alabama (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare and celebrate after a rousing 31-3 rout of Florida. On an eight-game winning streak as Alabama's starting quarterback, senior Brodie Croyle has raised his career record in that role to 12-9. In the 12 wins, Croyle has completed 169 of 284 passes for 2,514 yards and 21 touchdowns with four interceptions. Alabama RB Ken Darby leads the SEC with an average of 102.6 rushing yards per game. Alabama is allowing 11 points per game and leads the SEC in total defense. Nationally, Alabama ranks sixth in total defense and eighth in scoring defense. Mississippi (2-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and erratic QB Mike Spurlock (2 TDs, 4 INTs) didn't look that great Saturday in a win over Citadel which should add to the over-confidence of Alabama and its fans. The major problem for the Rebels is their lack of offense, specifically their passing game, which has just 720 net yards in four Division I-A games. They don't figure to have much luck throwing the ball this week against an Alabama defense that allows just 3.86 yards per pass
I would be flat out lying if I didn’t admit that Alabama owns most all of the statistical edges against the Rebels in this game. Simply put, they have more talent, are better coached and are flat out the better team. However, this just doesn't shape up as a good spot for the Crimson Tide with the bye last week and Tennessee on deck. Add that to the fact that the Rebels are a staunch 11-2 ATS in their last 13 tries as an SEC dog of +11 or more and the fact that game six 5-0 conference road favorites that covered their last game by 10 or more points are just 3-15 ATS when taking on a .400 or better opponent we have not other choice to back the home dog getting almost 2 TD’s. Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) for the weak at heart.
Forecast: Alabama 21, Mississippi 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OLE MISS +13
It's always noon somewhere! 
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