Line Movement Question

[weazel079]

Does anybody know how this does in the long run: If the public is clearly on one side of a game and the line moves the other way, play against the public.

For Example last Sunday about 60% were on Tampa Bay and the line opened at TB -3.5 and moved to TB -2.5 30 minutes from game time, yet the public was on TB.

Is this a good fade or system in the long run?

Thanks for any input

[Brady22]

I was part of the public on that one. If anyone knows the answer to this question please fill us in. The public is on one side but the line moves the other way.

[stoney]

Does anybody know how this does in the long run: If the public is clearly on one side of a game and the line moves the other way, play against the public.

For Example last Sunday about 60% were on Tampa Bay and the line opened at TB -3.5 and moved to TB -2.5 30 minutes from game time, yet the public was on TB.

Is this a good fade or system in the long run?

Thanks for any input

In my opinion, when you see a move like that I would have to say that it's not the public moving the line It is some big players who lay down a huge chunk of change that move a line like that. Just like stocks. Individuals don't move the price buying 100 or 500 share blocks, Institutions move it buying 500,000 share blocks.

Also when you say 60% of the people were on TB that does not mean the money is even on both teams. When you say 60% do we need to assume that every one of the 60% is just betting one unit? If not the numbers do not mean a thing. For example: say the 60% of the people who bet TB bet $100 each = $6000. And the 40% who bet NYJ bet $500 each = $20000. The line will come down because of the imbalance of money. So which is the right side??

[weazel079]

I'm going by a consensus pick, not by money. 60% picked TB and 40% picked Jets

[stoney]

I'm going by a consensus pick, not by money. 60% picked TB and 40% picked Jets

Weazel, I know where you are going with this system and it does work to some degree. I think I know what consensus site you use. But look at a game it didnt work on Consensus was on new england 60% atlanta 40%. Line went down but new england won right?
The way I have found consensus sites useful is to look at each game one by one and think in my head "who is everyone on?" then look at the consensus. If I am dead wrong about a game I go the opposite. But the thing is there has to be absolutely no reason why the public is picking a certain team over another. I 'll give you an example, sea vs stl. In my head I though the game would be about even as far as the consensus numbers both teams 2-2 both off of loses, maybe a little edge to stl because it was home. Turns out everyone on the consensus liked stl 65% to 35%? Nothing obvious wrong with seattle. So I took seattle. Check it out.

[weazel079]

I ignored the Atlanta game because of Vick DNP not announced til Sunday Morning.

[weazel079]

I have kept track of this the last two weeks in College and in NFL. 1st week NFL it went 3-0, last week it went 2-2-1.
In college it 1st week it went 6-3 and 2nd week it went 13-6. I don't think line systems work though because it would be to easy, but I don't really know.

[terpinator72]

a good example of this is the steelers chargers game.

chargers won a big game against the defending champs. The pats were obviously banged up in mid game, and didnt have the luxury of scheming with the replacement players most notably a missnig rodney harrison.

Chargers were 3 pt favorites at home against a good steelers team coming off a bye week when they went 15-1 this year. Only loss against a healthy pats team, taht got extra time in the game due to refs. and the pats barely won.

Take that look adn public was like 65-70 percent on chargers. Steelers were a great bet.

[weazel079]

The site I look at pretty much had it 50-50 for the Charger Steeler game

[terpinator72]

i went to sportsbook and *********.com, both were heaviyl on chargers

[weazel079]

If you go to ********* it has pittsburgh 50.87 and SD 49.13

[stoney]

Weazel if your system has those kind of results I would stick with it. Your system is simple, but thats the nice thing about it. I think the more you try to analyze or read between the lines the more times you second guess or talk yourself out of a play.