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Arizona +2.5* System Play: Home underdogs of 3 or less off a SU win vs an opponent that is coming off a home win in which they failed to cover have been very profitable play ON teams over the years. Since 1997, these underdogs are 11-1-0 ATS and have covered each game by an average of +15 points per game. In fact, these teams have won SU all 11 times and the one loss was decided in the final seconds. The line of +3 or less means we have a team that is not out of their league and may be undervalued getting no respect off a win. Their opponent doesn't have an increased sense of urgency off a win but there are some problems because they played under their potential last week and failed to cover. These small home dogs play like they have something to prove and tend to have the emotional edge. On the other side the betting public falls into the trap and jump at the chance to lay less than a FG with the away favorite. Carolina has been horrible in the favorite role while Arizona has pulled off numerous head-scratching wins and ****** in the home underdog role. The play is a good fit with the personality of these teams. If we were seeing +3 and the Arizona secondary was a bit healthier this play would have been upgraded. * The public may drive the line to +3 before gametime so I suggest waiting for the key line move for maximum value.
For what it is worth
For what it is worth
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