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LAID LOW LAST WEEK IN THE NFL ONLY PLAYING A FEW GAMES. AGAIN THE TOP PLAY HIT WITH ATLANTA COMPLETLY DOMINATING FROM THE OPENING KICKOFF. I HAVE WON 16 OUT OF THE LAST 18 WEEKS COMBINED IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND NFL CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. WITH LAST WEEKS PROFIT, I HAVE ALSO NOT HAD A LOSING WEEK THIS YEAR IN THE NFL, AND HAVE WON AN AMAZING 13 STRAIGHT WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 2 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 6 WINS 1 LOSS (85.7%)
1* 4 WINS 6 LOSSES (40%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
3* CLEVELAND -3
2* JACKSONVILLE -3
2* NEW YORK JETS +3
1* BUFFALO -2.5
1* ST. LOUIS -3
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CHICAGO (1 - 2) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Both teams are well rested after a bye week. Chicago (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) is outscoring opponents by a 17-13 average (2-1 “under” the total.) The defense is giving up 267 total yards pg (4th in the NFL). Conversely their offense has been nothing short of horrible, and lacks another WR to Muhsin Muhammad, and they still are working in a rookie QB in Kyle Orton (one TD, 6 INTs). The offense is 5th worst in the NFL, 252 total yards per game. The Bears are 0-1 US/1-0 ATS on the road (lost 9-7 at Washington), and 6-3 ATS their last 9 road games (6-3 “under” the total their last 9 road games). Meanwhile, Cleveland (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) is playing hard for first-year Head Coach Romeo Crennell. Surprisingly, the offense is 10th in NFL (15 points, 75 yds rushing, 267 yds passing per game.) QB Trent Dilfer (822 yards, 66%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) leads a passing attack that is 4th in the NFL! Cleveland is home here after a terrific two-game road trip, winning at Green Bay and playing the Colts tough. The Browns are so encouraged that they're hoping to emerge from the upcoming soft portion of their schedule as a winning team. Over the next five games, they play the 1-2 Bears, the 0-2 Ravens, the 1-1 Lions, the 0-2 Texans and the 1-2 Titans. In summary lets simply put it this way, the Browns have the better offense, the Bears the better Defense.
With both teams off the bye there is no advantage for either team coming into this weeks contest. Both these teams have a common opponent in Cincinnati. The Browns actually played the Bengals pretty tough; while the Bears didn't come close to giving the Bengals a game. Cleveland had 3 turnovers in their game (which led to 10 Cincy points), and also were stopped short on two 4 and 1's in Cincy territory; while on the other hand the Bears were totally dominated by the Bengals they were never in the contest. Naturally, that has nothing to do with their performance this weekend, but at the very least it give some indication as to the quality of each team. So I guess the main question is why Cleveland and why the top play? I do totally respect Chicago’s running game, but without a passing offense to keep defenses honest opposing teams will stack the line and make Bears QB Kyle Orton beat them through the air a dubious task for a rookie QB playing in a hostile environment. In contrast, the Browns have a proven superbowl winning QB Trent Dilfer who knows all he has to do to notch a win here is take care of the ball, as the Browns have a potent running game of their own. Cleveland stayed within 13 points of Indianapolis at Indy then they went on the road and beat Green Bay. Cleveland has a better than average rushing offense, and an offensive line that is giving Dilfer time to throw. Lay the small price on the Browns at home, as they are the better team with the home field.
Forecast: CLE Browns 21, CHI Bears 10
PLAY 3* UNITS ON CLEVELAND -3
CINCINNATI (4 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 8:30 PM
vs
Analysis
Remember Icky Woods? He was the Bengals’ star performer the last time they went to the Super Bowl back in 1988. It also was the last time the Bengals opened 4-0. Are the Bengals that good again? No, and this game should prove it. The Bengals (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) have parlayed a soft schedule and a revamped defense into an undefeated start. Offense is the strength of the team, with QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson, and WRs in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. However, the defense has been a surprise, allowing 9.5 points per game and is 10th in total 'D' in the NFL. For the second consecutive game and third time in 17 starts, Palmer did not throw an interception in a 16-10 win over Houston. He now has nine touchdowns, just two interceptions and 1,062 passing yards in four games. Cincinnati out gained Houston, 371-254. First-year defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan's group has allowed just 38 points in the first four games, so it's clear head coach Mavin Lewis has these guys headed in the right direction. One area of concern, however, is the run defense which was a weakness even last season. The Bengals are allowing 4.9 yards per carry (3rd worst in the NFL) without a real run-stuffer, and you need tough run defense against RB Fred Taylor and the Jacksonville ground attack. Jacksonville (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) still is tough on defense, allowing 16 ppg, but they are off an awful performance. The Denver Broncos rushed for 188 yards and collected four turnovers while beating the Jaguars 20-7 in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The Jaguars rushed for a franchise-low 12 yards and were charged with 15 penalties. The ailing offensive line couldn't open holes or protect QB Byron Leftwich, and the defensive line couldn't stop the Broncos when they mounted two long touchdown drives in the second period.
As I stated above, although undefeated the Bengals have feasted against weak opposition as their opponents have a combined 3-10 record. Unfortunately, for Cincinnati backers that undefeated streak will come to a halting end this weekend. They match up poorly against the Jags who are a ball-control team with a fine running back, Fred Taylor, and a physical defense that excels in stopping the run. My Taylor should be able to run with ease opening up some nice opportunities for Leftwich who traditionally excels at home. The main problem with the Bengals this weekend will be their offense. Their starting center is questionable and their backup is out for the season. Since the the Bengals rely RB Rudi Johnson to opening up the passing game through his straight ahead running style. The heart of Jacksonville’s defense is its outstanding tackles, John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. If Johnson can’t move the chains, and I do no think he will have much success (especially if both centers are out) all the pressure reverts to Carson Palmer (who may not have any receivers open). Oh yeah for you trend guys...the Bengals are a woeful 8-52 SU in their last 60 road games against .500 or better teams. Like Chicago, the Jags have also held every foe to a season low yardage mark this season. The Jags are also 4-0 ATS off a double digit defeat. The Jaguars have won and covered their past three against the Bengals and they will make it four in a row in the series here.
Forecast: CIN Bengals 17, JAX Jaguars 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON JACKSONVILLE -3
TAMPA BAY (4 - 0) at NY JETS (1 - 3)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The undefeated Buccaneers held off a Detroit Lions uprising in the fourth quarter for a 17-13 win on Sunday. The Lions had trouble moving the ball on offense all day, but Joey Harrington led a drive from his own 7 to the Tampa Bay 11 in the last five minutes that stalled after an instant replay TD reversal. The Bucs outgained the Lions 353 yards to 226, though QB Brian Griese finished 22-of-39 and threw three interceptions. He also was sacked three times. The one concern is that stud RB Carnell Williams (foot/hamstring) is not 100% and is questionable. Tampa Bay is 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS their last 10 road games (though 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS this season). Vinny, Vinny, Vinny! Testaverde gets the start and the Jets will get the much needed win. Vinny will be replacing third-string QB Brian Bollinger who went 14-for-28 for 149 yards in place of injured starter Chad Pennington. RB Curtis Martin was held to 30 yards on 13 carries, and New York (1-3 SU, ATS) made only six first downs and had 90 yards in offense through the first 56 minutes. Simply awful. But as I always say in the NFL like no other sport, last week means nothing.
Being a huge Vinny fan myself, and living about 20 minutes from the meadowlands I’m not going to get sentimental. Situationally, this is a terrible spot to back the Bucs. I do not think there is anybody that will argue when I say the Bucs are not going to go undefeated, and this game may be the least important game on their schedule so if ever there was a game for the Bucs to let down, this would be it. They play against a non-conference team. If they lose, Jon Gruden may just look back and say, "oh well, you can't win 'em all." His quarterback Brian Griese is one hard hit away from giving way to Luke McCown or Chris Simms. Not to take anything away from either of those guys, but it would completely change the complexion of their offense. Simply put, so long as the Jets move the chains gradually and don’t turn it over, their overall personnel is as good, if not better than, Tampa Bay’s. Look for Vinny to play conservative with short passing plays. The New York defensive front that played very well in Baltimore against a very good Baltimore offensive line, goes up against a so-so Tampa offensive line and you can bet that the New York running game will be a lot more effective than it was last week. J-E-T-S...JETS..JETS..JETS!
Injury Update: T.B. star RB Cadillac Williams (447 YR; sprained foot, sore hamstring; did not finish last week’s narrow victory over Detroit) sat out Wed. & Thur. practices this week and is questionable. HC Jon Gruden says he will have to see significant improvement Friday & Saturday in
order for Williams to play.
Forecast: TB Bucs 13, NYJ Jets 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW YORK JETS +3
MIAMI (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 3)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Miami is off a bye week and is a surpising 2-1 SU/ATS this season, although they are 0-1 SU/ATS on the road, getting beat 17-7 at the NY Jets. You need a rushing defense to face Buffalo, as the Bills have no QB experience with young J.P. Losman struggling. Fortunately, Miami is No. 3 in the NFL in run defense, allowing 76 yards rushing, just 2.9 ypc! QB Gus Frerotte (5 TDs, 3 INTs) has been decent, and rookie RB Ronnie Brown (224 yards, 3.9 ypc) is getting better. RB Ricky Williams will miss this game (suspenion) and is eligible to come back Oct. 16 against Tampa Bay. Despite the trick plays in the opener and 34 points against Denver, Miami is still 20th in the NFL in total offense. Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-3 SU/ATS) had high hopes for this season, but has plenty of problems. The offense is in shambles with a starting quarterback who has been pulled in two of the last three games. This week, veteran Kelly Holcomb will start at QB for Buffalo. Holcomb played the fourth Q in last week’s 19-7 loss against the Saints in San Antonio, completing 3 of 6 passes. Second-year QB J.P. Losman has started all four games for the Bills TY, generating only 3 overall TDs, hitting only 48% with 1 TDP and 2 interceptions. Holcomb started two games LY while with the Browns. Under Loshman Buffalo's offense is 31st in the NFL. Even more alarming is the run defense which is second worst in the NFL, allowing 172 yards rushing, 4.9 yards per carry! After their 19-7 loss to the Saints: "The frustration level is just unbelievable right now," Bills guard Chris Villarrial said. "I'm frustrated. My teammates are frustrated."
With Losman out of the picture, we will see a totally different Bills team this Sunday. Eric Moulds and Lee Evans are above average receivers, but they had been invisible with Losman at QB. Holcomb is not great by any means but he does have the “ability” to throw which will neutralize opposing defenses who now will not be able to put eight men in the box to stop Willis McGahee. Buffalo has won six of its last seven at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Playing on the turf, is an off-surface for Miami, and the Dolphins still have not proven they can win away from the brutal, south Florida humidity.They have lost eight of their last nine road games, including dropping their lone away game this season to the Jets. Their only road victory since 2004 came against the 2-14 49ers last year. Miami was idle last week, but is 3-13 ATS the week following its bye. Buffalo’s defense should do well at home against a weak Dolphins’ ground attack, makeshift offensive line and quarterback Gus Frerotte, one of the five worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Taking the nice short price on the Home team.
Forecast: MIA Dolphins 10, BUF Bills 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO -3
SEATTLE (2 - 2) at ST LOUIS (2 - 2)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Analysis forthcoming check back Wednesday Night.
YEAR TO DATE RECORD:
3* 2 WINS 0 LOSSES (100 %)
2* 6 WINS 1 LOSS (85.7%)
1* 4 WINS 6 LOSSES (40%)
Opinions: 2 WINS 1 LOSE (66.6%)
WEEK BY WEEK SUMMARY:
WEEK #1: 4 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #2: 3 WINS 1 LOSS (+3.9 UNITS)
WEEK #3: 5 WINS 4 LOSSES (+4.5 UNITS)
WEEK #4: 2 WINS 2 LOSSES (+1.9 UNITS)
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
3* CLEVELAND -3
2* JACKSONVILLE -3
2* NEW YORK JETS +3
1* BUFFALO -2.5
1* ST. LOUIS -3
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CHICAGO (1 - 2) at CLEVELAND (1 - 2)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Both teams are well rested after a bye week. Chicago (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) is outscoring opponents by a 17-13 average (2-1 “under” the total.) The defense is giving up 267 total yards pg (4th in the NFL). Conversely their offense has been nothing short of horrible, and lacks another WR to Muhsin Muhammad, and they still are working in a rookie QB in Kyle Orton (one TD, 6 INTs). The offense is 5th worst in the NFL, 252 total yards per game. The Bears are 0-1 US/1-0 ATS on the road (lost 9-7 at Washington), and 6-3 ATS their last 9 road games (6-3 “under” the total their last 9 road games). Meanwhile, Cleveland (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) is playing hard for first-year Head Coach Romeo Crennell. Surprisingly, the offense is 10th in NFL (15 points, 75 yds rushing, 267 yds passing per game.) QB Trent Dilfer (822 yards, 66%, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) leads a passing attack that is 4th in the NFL! Cleveland is home here after a terrific two-game road trip, winning at Green Bay and playing the Colts tough. The Browns are so encouraged that they're hoping to emerge from the upcoming soft portion of their schedule as a winning team. Over the next five games, they play the 1-2 Bears, the 0-2 Ravens, the 1-1 Lions, the 0-2 Texans and the 1-2 Titans. In summary lets simply put it this way, the Browns have the better offense, the Bears the better Defense.
With both teams off the bye there is no advantage for either team coming into this weeks contest. Both these teams have a common opponent in Cincinnati. The Browns actually played the Bengals pretty tough; while the Bears didn't come close to giving the Bengals a game. Cleveland had 3 turnovers in their game (which led to 10 Cincy points), and also were stopped short on two 4 and 1's in Cincy territory; while on the other hand the Bears were totally dominated by the Bengals they were never in the contest. Naturally, that has nothing to do with their performance this weekend, but at the very least it give some indication as to the quality of each team. So I guess the main question is why Cleveland and why the top play? I do totally respect Chicago’s running game, but without a passing offense to keep defenses honest opposing teams will stack the line and make Bears QB Kyle Orton beat them through the air a dubious task for a rookie QB playing in a hostile environment. In contrast, the Browns have a proven superbowl winning QB Trent Dilfer who knows all he has to do to notch a win here is take care of the ball, as the Browns have a potent running game of their own. Cleveland stayed within 13 points of Indianapolis at Indy then they went on the road and beat Green Bay. Cleveland has a better than average rushing offense, and an offensive line that is giving Dilfer time to throw. Lay the small price on the Browns at home, as they are the better team with the home field.
Forecast: CLE Browns 21, CHI Bears 10
PLAY 3* UNITS ON CLEVELAND -3
CINCINNATI (4 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 8:30 PM
vs Analysis
Remember Icky Woods? He was the Bengals’ star performer the last time they went to the Super Bowl back in 1988. It also was the last time the Bengals opened 4-0. Are the Bengals that good again? No, and this game should prove it. The Bengals (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) have parlayed a soft schedule and a revamped defense into an undefeated start. Offense is the strength of the team, with QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson, and WRs in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. However, the defense has been a surprise, allowing 9.5 points per game and is 10th in total 'D' in the NFL. For the second consecutive game and third time in 17 starts, Palmer did not throw an interception in a 16-10 win over Houston. He now has nine touchdowns, just two interceptions and 1,062 passing yards in four games. Cincinnati out gained Houston, 371-254. First-year defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan's group has allowed just 38 points in the first four games, so it's clear head coach Mavin Lewis has these guys headed in the right direction. One area of concern, however, is the run defense which was a weakness even last season. The Bengals are allowing 4.9 yards per carry (3rd worst in the NFL) without a real run-stuffer, and you need tough run defense against RB Fred Taylor and the Jacksonville ground attack. Jacksonville (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) still is tough on defense, allowing 16 ppg, but they are off an awful performance. The Denver Broncos rushed for 188 yards and collected four turnovers while beating the Jaguars 20-7 in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The Jaguars rushed for a franchise-low 12 yards and were charged with 15 penalties. The ailing offensive line couldn't open holes or protect QB Byron Leftwich, and the defensive line couldn't stop the Broncos when they mounted two long touchdown drives in the second period.
As I stated above, although undefeated the Bengals have feasted against weak opposition as their opponents have a combined 3-10 record. Unfortunately, for Cincinnati backers that undefeated streak will come to a halting end this weekend. They match up poorly against the Jags who are a ball-control team with a fine running back, Fred Taylor, and a physical defense that excels in stopping the run. My Taylor should be able to run with ease opening up some nice opportunities for Leftwich who traditionally excels at home. The main problem with the Bengals this weekend will be their offense. Their starting center is questionable and their backup is out for the season. Since the the Bengals rely RB Rudi Johnson to opening up the passing game through his straight ahead running style. The heart of Jacksonville’s defense is its outstanding tackles, John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. If Johnson can’t move the chains, and I do no think he will have much success (especially if both centers are out) all the pressure reverts to Carson Palmer (who may not have any receivers open). Oh yeah for you trend guys...the Bengals are a woeful 8-52 SU in their last 60 road games against .500 or better teams. Like Chicago, the Jags have also held every foe to a season low yardage mark this season. The Jags are also 4-0 ATS off a double digit defeat. The Jaguars have won and covered their past three against the Bengals and they will make it four in a row in the series here.
Forecast: CIN Bengals 17, JAX Jaguars 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON JACKSONVILLE -3
TAMPA BAY (4 - 0) at NY JETS (1 - 3)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
The undefeated Buccaneers held off a Detroit Lions uprising in the fourth quarter for a 17-13 win on Sunday. The Lions had trouble moving the ball on offense all day, but Joey Harrington led a drive from his own 7 to the Tampa Bay 11 in the last five minutes that stalled after an instant replay TD reversal. The Bucs outgained the Lions 353 yards to 226, though QB Brian Griese finished 22-of-39 and threw three interceptions. He also was sacked three times. The one concern is that stud RB Carnell Williams (foot/hamstring) is not 100% and is questionable. Tampa Bay is 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS their last 10 road games (though 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS this season). Vinny, Vinny, Vinny! Testaverde gets the start and the Jets will get the much needed win. Vinny will be replacing third-string QB Brian Bollinger who went 14-for-28 for 149 yards in place of injured starter Chad Pennington. RB Curtis Martin was held to 30 yards on 13 carries, and New York (1-3 SU, ATS) made only six first downs and had 90 yards in offense through the first 56 minutes. Simply awful. But as I always say in the NFL like no other sport, last week means nothing.
Being a huge Vinny fan myself, and living about 20 minutes from the meadowlands I’m not going to get sentimental. Situationally, this is a terrible spot to back the Bucs. I do not think there is anybody that will argue when I say the Bucs are not going to go undefeated, and this game may be the least important game on their schedule so if ever there was a game for the Bucs to let down, this would be it. They play against a non-conference team. If they lose, Jon Gruden may just look back and say, "oh well, you can't win 'em all." His quarterback Brian Griese is one hard hit away from giving way to Luke McCown or Chris Simms. Not to take anything away from either of those guys, but it would completely change the complexion of their offense. Simply put, so long as the Jets move the chains gradually and don’t turn it over, their overall personnel is as good, if not better than, Tampa Bay’s. Look for Vinny to play conservative with short passing plays. The New York defensive front that played very well in Baltimore against a very good Baltimore offensive line, goes up against a so-so Tampa offensive line and you can bet that the New York running game will be a lot more effective than it was last week. J-E-T-S...JETS..JETS..JETS!
Injury Update: T.B. star RB Cadillac Williams (447 YR; sprained foot, sore hamstring; did not finish last week’s narrow victory over Detroit) sat out Wed. & Thur. practices this week and is questionable. HC Jon Gruden says he will have to see significant improvement Friday & Saturday in
order for Williams to play.
Forecast: TB Bucs 13, NYJ Jets 24
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW YORK JETS +3
MIAMI (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 3)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Miami is off a bye week and is a surpising 2-1 SU/ATS this season, although they are 0-1 SU/ATS on the road, getting beat 17-7 at the NY Jets. You need a rushing defense to face Buffalo, as the Bills have no QB experience with young J.P. Losman struggling. Fortunately, Miami is No. 3 in the NFL in run defense, allowing 76 yards rushing, just 2.9 ypc! QB Gus Frerotte (5 TDs, 3 INTs) has been decent, and rookie RB Ronnie Brown (224 yards, 3.9 ypc) is getting better. RB Ricky Williams will miss this game (suspenion) and is eligible to come back Oct. 16 against Tampa Bay. Despite the trick plays in the opener and 34 points against Denver, Miami is still 20th in the NFL in total offense. Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-3 SU/ATS) had high hopes for this season, but has plenty of problems. The offense is in shambles with a starting quarterback who has been pulled in two of the last three games. This week, veteran Kelly Holcomb will start at QB for Buffalo. Holcomb played the fourth Q in last week’s 19-7 loss against the Saints in San Antonio, completing 3 of 6 passes. Second-year QB J.P. Losman has started all four games for the Bills TY, generating only 3 overall TDs, hitting only 48% with 1 TDP and 2 interceptions. Holcomb started two games LY while with the Browns. Under Loshman Buffalo's offense is 31st in the NFL. Even more alarming is the run defense which is second worst in the NFL, allowing 172 yards rushing, 4.9 yards per carry! After their 19-7 loss to the Saints: "The frustration level is just unbelievable right now," Bills guard Chris Villarrial said. "I'm frustrated. My teammates are frustrated."
With Losman out of the picture, we will see a totally different Bills team this Sunday. Eric Moulds and Lee Evans are above average receivers, but they had been invisible with Losman at QB. Holcomb is not great by any means but he does have the “ability” to throw which will neutralize opposing defenses who now will not be able to put eight men in the box to stop Willis McGahee. Buffalo has won six of its last seven at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Playing on the turf, is an off-surface for Miami, and the Dolphins still have not proven they can win away from the brutal, south Florida humidity.They have lost eight of their last nine road games, including dropping their lone away game this season to the Jets. Their only road victory since 2004 came against the 2-14 49ers last year. Miami was idle last week, but is 3-13 ATS the week following its bye. Buffalo’s defense should do well at home against a weak Dolphins’ ground attack, makeshift offensive line and quarterback Gus Frerotte, one of the five worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Taking the nice short price on the Home team.
Forecast: MIA Dolphins 10, BUF Bills 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO -3
SEATTLE (2 - 2) at ST LOUIS (2 - 2)
Week 5 Sunday, 10/9/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Analysis forthcoming check back Wednesday Night.
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