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BOOOM HUGE WEEKEND SHOWIN PROFITS IN BOTH SPORTS SWEEPING BOTH TOP PLAYS ON SATURDAY AND THE TOP PLAY ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS CONTINUED DOMINATION, I HAVE NOW WON 16 OUT OF THE LAST 18 WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* IOWA STATE -8
2* NEVADA -8.5
2* PURDUE -4.5
1* PENN STATE +3
1* BYU +8
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BAYLOR (3 - 1) at IOWA ST (3 - 1)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 2:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Baylor Bears (3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U) came within a minute of defeating Texas A&M for the second straight year before falling in OT 16-13 Saturday. Texas A&M's normally explosive offense was held in check for most of the game and thanks to the Bears defense, was horrible in the first half. The Aggies managed just three first downs and 70 yards before halftime. But does anyone else believe Texas A&M really prepared for the likes of Baylor when they had a huge showdown with Colorado this week. A&M’s coach is know for his “let’s get up for the big teams” approach, so I do not think last weekends “almost upset” was really a telling sign of Baylor’s improvement. Iowa State (3-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U), the defending co-champion of the Big 12 North, lost for the first time in five road games Saturday 27-20 to Nebraska in OT. QB Bret Meyer was 23 of 41, with an interception, for 317 yards, and the Cylones netted only 57 yards on the ground. The Cyclones are more experienced while the Bears continue to struggle against Big XII opponents.
Although both teams come off tough road losses, one has to think that Baylor might be a little flat in this game. Last week, all the papers talked about was how Baylor wanted to defeat A&M more than any other opponent this season. All the above is ok but what really opened my eyes is this starteling trend given to me by Tom Scott. Baylor is 0-38 SU on the conference road and, in that stretch, has NEVER covered the spread against a team off a SU and ATS loss. Meanwhile, Iowa State is a powerful 30-2 to the money in its last 32 victories against opponents who covered their last game and, in the 13 instances where the Cyclones were off a SU ATS loss of their own, they are a perfect 13-0 against the number. Holy shit what a trend. Shop around your books guys there are some -8's out there so lay the number with confidence.
Projected Score: Iowa St 38, Baylor 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON IOWA STATE -8
IDAHO (1 - 4) at NEVADA (2 - 2)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 4:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Nevada is a far better team at home than it is on the road and Idaho is bad everywhere. Granted, Idaho (1-4) has had a tough schedule, and played well in a 38-24 loss at Washington State in the opener and they did show some grit last weekend in their 27-13 homecoming win at home over Utah State. Idaho quarterback Steven Wichman, who had thrown for 390 yards and three scores three weeks earlier against UNLV, completed his first 13 passes and finished 20-for-25 for 238 yards in Saturday's win. In all fairness to the Vandals, they have played representatively this season at tougher venues but they are crippled by injuries right now. Idaho's offensive line has been decimated by injuries and overall, the unit is only paving the way for about 45 yards rushing a game. Unfortunately, for Idaho they also have to play without 2 of their top RBs (Jayson Bird and Antuawn Sherman), and QB Steven Wichman has thrown as many interceptions as TD passes and has been sacked a season worth 18 times in just 5 games. Meanwhile, Nevada Reno’s (2-2 SU/ATS) win at San Jose State last week was a “buy” signal in the upcoming weeks, so do not be surprised if they appear as a selection next week as well. Nevada features a strong passing attack, averaging 23.5 points and 268 yards passing behind junior QB Jeff Rowe, so Nevada should have little trouble picking apart the Vandals defense that’s allowed 34-or-more points three times this Year. Nevada 6-2 ATS last 8 home games and 3-0 ATS last 3 as home chalk while Idaho just 4-7 as road dog last 11. Oh yeah, Idaho is also a miserable 0-6 ATS on the road coming off a game at home. Last week, Idaho had its Homecoming win, and guess what…its now homecoming for the Wolf Pack this weekend. I’m forecasting a blowout here!
Projected Score: Nevada Reno 34, Idaho 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEVADA -8.5
IOWA (3 - 2) at PURDUE (2 - 2)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 4:30 PM
vs 
Analysis
It wasn’t hard to see Iowa’s (3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) big bounce back last week against routing Illinois 35-7. However, the Hawkeye’s have have been a poor road team thus far at 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. They lost 23-3 at Iowa State as a 9-point favorite, then lost 31-6 at Ohio State. The offense is balanced this season (187 yards rushing, 192 passing per game, 29 ppg) behind junior QB Drew Tate (724 yards, 68%, 6 TDs, 3 INTs) and sophomore RB Albert Young. The defense is allowing 16 points, 156 rushing, 3.5 ypc, 191 passing per game allowed. Meanwhile, Purdue (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is off an embarrassing home loss, 49-28, to Notre Dame. That was the second loss in row after a 42-35 defeat at Minnesota. Purdue’s defense is allowing 34.8 points, 346 pass yards per game! That’s even more disappointing when you realize Purdue has all 11 defensive starters back to a 2004 ‘D’ that allowed 17 points and 345 total yards per game. QB Brandon Kirsch (912 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs) leads the offense that is too often playing catchup. The Boilermakers have allowed 1,193 yards in their past two games, including 572 in a 42-35 double-overtime loss at Minnesota.
I have to honestly say that this is a very tough game to handicap. It is entirely possible that Purdue will have a Notre Dame hangover and get completely blown away. Their defensive numbers are horrible (see above) but they are playing a foe who in my eyes is over rated. Iowa does not possess a balanced attack and still doesn’t have a running game. They are also very vulnerable in the secondary and there are several fundamental match-up advantages for Purdue to exploit. This is also a revenge game for Purdue (Iowa won 23-21 last year) and that’s where we will have to look to get our “edge” in this contest. Purdue checks in at 36-3 ATS in its last 30 revenge wins. Moreover, Joe Tiller teams are 24-10 ATS in this role, including 11-1 ATS when their opponent (Iowa) checks in off a SU & ATS win. FYI: Iowa is 4-31 ATS in SU losses to avenging teams, including 1-18 ATS when playing off a win and recent history shows Iowa is just 1-4 ATS its last 5 games with Purdue. The trend continues and the Boilermakers exact their revenge! Lay it.
Projected Score: Iowa 17, Purdue 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON PURDUE -4.5
OHIO ST (3 - 1) at PENN ST (5 - 0)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 7:45 PM
vs 
Analysis
Well this selection certainly is not going to be a very popular selection this weekend as early betting indications show that 85% of the bets are being placed on Ohio State. So lets break this game down to see exactly why I arrived at Penn State as the selection. At the beginning of the season we all knew that Ohio State was supposed to be tremendous (actually in the top 5 to win the championship this year by odds makers), so there is no shock there. Meanwhile, Penn State was supposed to be markedly “improved” than they were in either of the last two seasons, when the Lions won a combined total of only seven games so that fact that they are now 5-0 at this stage isn't a totally outlandish proposition. I also believe there is no question that if this game was played in the beginning of the season Ohio State would be 7 or more chalk even on the road. Both teams possess great defenses albeit Ohio State’s defense has faced better competition and does have an edge. However offensively, Ohio State is just miserable. And this is where I have to look back to Penn states performances in their 5-0 start. While Ohio State continues to struggle, Penn State is turning into an offensive juggernaut average 457 yards per contest (36 points per contest).
Ohio State won last season 21-10, and the last four meetings in the series have been decided by a combined 20 points and the home team has covered seven straight in the series. Ohio State is also a pathetic 1-11 ATS mark on the road after a double-digit win. It should be noted that Penn State has been a home dog just eight times since 1996, going 5-3 against the number with three outright upsets. It's a guarantee that the 100,000 plus in attendance will be more fired up for this contest than for any game in perhaps more than a decade. With Ohio State having o play its FIRST road game of the season in Happy Valley at night, is an ominous transition. Take the points!
Projected Score: Ohio St 17, Penn St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON PENN STATE +3
BYU (1 - 3) at NEW MEXICO (3 - 2)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 8:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Cougars are struggling and New Mexico's defense folded against TCU. This is an elimination game for the Lobos. They must win if they plan on contending for the conference title. BYU has already been strapped with a pair of MWC losses and are now trying to salvage a once promising season, that ended quickly with a thud. I have been staring at this line for the better part of the week trying to figure out what the odd makers know that I don’t to make New Mexico 8 point favorites. That’s way to much respect for a team that lost two straight to TCU and UTEP. BYU averages 367 passing yards per game while New Mexico has a respectable well balanced offense led by running back DonTrell Moore and quarterback Kole McKamey. Their defense which was suppose to be dominant but they yielded 28 points to TCU in the first quarter, including 14 points in the first two minutes of the game. Each club has played TCU. BYU won, New Mexico lost. In the last four years of this series, seven points has been the largest margin of victory as these teams traditionally play close against each other. Here is what the Lobo’s coach Rocky Long said the other day…”I’m hoping for some rain to slow the BYU offense down.” Sorry Rocky, the forecast for Saturday in University Stadium calls for clear and sunny skies. Take the generous offering.
Projected Score: BYU 28, New Mexico 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BYU +8
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* IOWA STATE -8
2* NEVADA -8.5
2* PURDUE -4.5
1* PENN STATE +3
1* BYU +8
--------------------------------------------------
BAYLOR (3 - 1) at IOWA ST (3 - 1)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 2:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Baylor Bears (3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U) came within a minute of defeating Texas A&M for the second straight year before falling in OT 16-13 Saturday. Texas A&M's normally explosive offense was held in check for most of the game and thanks to the Bears defense, was horrible in the first half. The Aggies managed just three first downs and 70 yards before halftime. But does anyone else believe Texas A&M really prepared for the likes of Baylor when they had a huge showdown with Colorado this week. A&M’s coach is know for his “let’s get up for the big teams” approach, so I do not think last weekends “almost upset” was really a telling sign of Baylor’s improvement. Iowa State (3-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U), the defending co-champion of the Big 12 North, lost for the first time in five road games Saturday 27-20 to Nebraska in OT. QB Bret Meyer was 23 of 41, with an interception, for 317 yards, and the Cylones netted only 57 yards on the ground. The Cyclones are more experienced while the Bears continue to struggle against Big XII opponents.
Although both teams come off tough road losses, one has to think that Baylor might be a little flat in this game. Last week, all the papers talked about was how Baylor wanted to defeat A&M more than any other opponent this season. All the above is ok but what really opened my eyes is this starteling trend given to me by Tom Scott. Baylor is 0-38 SU on the conference road and, in that stretch, has NEVER covered the spread against a team off a SU and ATS loss. Meanwhile, Iowa State is a powerful 30-2 to the money in its last 32 victories against opponents who covered their last game and, in the 13 instances where the Cyclones were off a SU ATS loss of their own, they are a perfect 13-0 against the number. Holy shit what a trend. Shop around your books guys there are some -8's out there so lay the number with confidence.
Projected Score: Iowa St 38, Baylor 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON IOWA STATE -8
IDAHO (1 - 4) at NEVADA (2 - 2)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 4:00 PM
vs Analysis
Nevada is a far better team at home than it is on the road and Idaho is bad everywhere. Granted, Idaho (1-4) has had a tough schedule, and played well in a 38-24 loss at Washington State in the opener and they did show some grit last weekend in their 27-13 homecoming win at home over Utah State. Idaho quarterback Steven Wichman, who had thrown for 390 yards and three scores three weeks earlier against UNLV, completed his first 13 passes and finished 20-for-25 for 238 yards in Saturday's win. In all fairness to the Vandals, they have played representatively this season at tougher venues but they are crippled by injuries right now. Idaho's offensive line has been decimated by injuries and overall, the unit is only paving the way for about 45 yards rushing a game. Unfortunately, for Idaho they also have to play without 2 of their top RBs (Jayson Bird and Antuawn Sherman), and QB Steven Wichman has thrown as many interceptions as TD passes and has been sacked a season worth 18 times in just 5 games. Meanwhile, Nevada Reno’s (2-2 SU/ATS) win at San Jose State last week was a “buy” signal in the upcoming weeks, so do not be surprised if they appear as a selection next week as well. Nevada features a strong passing attack, averaging 23.5 points and 268 yards passing behind junior QB Jeff Rowe, so Nevada should have little trouble picking apart the Vandals defense that’s allowed 34-or-more points three times this Year. Nevada 6-2 ATS last 8 home games and 3-0 ATS last 3 as home chalk while Idaho just 4-7 as road dog last 11. Oh yeah, Idaho is also a miserable 0-6 ATS on the road coming off a game at home. Last week, Idaho had its Homecoming win, and guess what…its now homecoming for the Wolf Pack this weekend. I’m forecasting a blowout here!
Projected Score: Nevada Reno 34, Idaho 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEVADA -8.5
IOWA (3 - 2) at PURDUE (2 - 2)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 4:30 PM
vs Analysis
It wasn’t hard to see Iowa’s (3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) big bounce back last week against routing Illinois 35-7. However, the Hawkeye’s have have been a poor road team thus far at 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. They lost 23-3 at Iowa State as a 9-point favorite, then lost 31-6 at Ohio State. The offense is balanced this season (187 yards rushing, 192 passing per game, 29 ppg) behind junior QB Drew Tate (724 yards, 68%, 6 TDs, 3 INTs) and sophomore RB Albert Young. The defense is allowing 16 points, 156 rushing, 3.5 ypc, 191 passing per game allowed. Meanwhile, Purdue (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is off an embarrassing home loss, 49-28, to Notre Dame. That was the second loss in row after a 42-35 defeat at Minnesota. Purdue’s defense is allowing 34.8 points, 346 pass yards per game! That’s even more disappointing when you realize Purdue has all 11 defensive starters back to a 2004 ‘D’ that allowed 17 points and 345 total yards per game. QB Brandon Kirsch (912 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs) leads the offense that is too often playing catchup. The Boilermakers have allowed 1,193 yards in their past two games, including 572 in a 42-35 double-overtime loss at Minnesota.
I have to honestly say that this is a very tough game to handicap. It is entirely possible that Purdue will have a Notre Dame hangover and get completely blown away. Their defensive numbers are horrible (see above) but they are playing a foe who in my eyes is over rated. Iowa does not possess a balanced attack and still doesn’t have a running game. They are also very vulnerable in the secondary and there are several fundamental match-up advantages for Purdue to exploit. This is also a revenge game for Purdue (Iowa won 23-21 last year) and that’s where we will have to look to get our “edge” in this contest. Purdue checks in at 36-3 ATS in its last 30 revenge wins. Moreover, Joe Tiller teams are 24-10 ATS in this role, including 11-1 ATS when their opponent (Iowa) checks in off a SU & ATS win. FYI: Iowa is 4-31 ATS in SU losses to avenging teams, including 1-18 ATS when playing off a win and recent history shows Iowa is just 1-4 ATS its last 5 games with Purdue. The trend continues and the Boilermakers exact their revenge! Lay it.
Projected Score: Iowa 17, Purdue 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON PURDUE -4.5
OHIO ST (3 - 1) at PENN ST (5 - 0)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 7:45 PM
vs Analysis
Well this selection certainly is not going to be a very popular selection this weekend as early betting indications show that 85% of the bets are being placed on Ohio State. So lets break this game down to see exactly why I arrived at Penn State as the selection. At the beginning of the season we all knew that Ohio State was supposed to be tremendous (actually in the top 5 to win the championship this year by odds makers), so there is no shock there. Meanwhile, Penn State was supposed to be markedly “improved” than they were in either of the last two seasons, when the Lions won a combined total of only seven games so that fact that they are now 5-0 at this stage isn't a totally outlandish proposition. I also believe there is no question that if this game was played in the beginning of the season Ohio State would be 7 or more chalk even on the road. Both teams possess great defenses albeit Ohio State’s defense has faced better competition and does have an edge. However offensively, Ohio State is just miserable. And this is where I have to look back to Penn states performances in their 5-0 start. While Ohio State continues to struggle, Penn State is turning into an offensive juggernaut average 457 yards per contest (36 points per contest).
Ohio State won last season 21-10, and the last four meetings in the series have been decided by a combined 20 points and the home team has covered seven straight in the series. Ohio State is also a pathetic 1-11 ATS mark on the road after a double-digit win. It should be noted that Penn State has been a home dog just eight times since 1996, going 5-3 against the number with three outright upsets. It's a guarantee that the 100,000 plus in attendance will be more fired up for this contest than for any game in perhaps more than a decade. With Ohio State having o play its FIRST road game of the season in Happy Valley at night, is an ominous transition. Take the points!
Projected Score: Ohio St 17, Penn St 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON PENN STATE +3
BYU (1 - 3) at NEW MEXICO (3 - 2)
Week 6 Saturday, 10/8/2005 8:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Cougars are struggling and New Mexico's defense folded against TCU. This is an elimination game for the Lobos. They must win if they plan on contending for the conference title. BYU has already been strapped with a pair of MWC losses and are now trying to salvage a once promising season, that ended quickly with a thud. I have been staring at this line for the better part of the week trying to figure out what the odd makers know that I don’t to make New Mexico 8 point favorites. That’s way to much respect for a team that lost two straight to TCU and UTEP. BYU averages 367 passing yards per game while New Mexico has a respectable well balanced offense led by running back DonTrell Moore and quarterback Kole McKamey. Their defense which was suppose to be dominant but they yielded 28 points to TCU in the first quarter, including 14 points in the first two minutes of the game. Each club has played TCU. BYU won, New Mexico lost. In the last four years of this series, seven points has been the largest margin of victory as these teams traditionally play close against each other. Here is what the Lobo’s coach Rocky Long said the other day…”I’m hoping for some rain to slow the BYU offense down.” Sorry Rocky, the forecast for Saturday in University Stadium calls for clear and sunny skies. Take the generous offering.
Projected Score: BYU 28, New Mexico 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BYU +8
It's always noon somewhere! 
Single Unit: 10-9 -1.34 units
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