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Sunday NFL Week 5 - 10/9
This is my first play for week 5. I'll add a couple more later in the week.
NFL
5 STAR: HOUSTON (-3)(+$100) OVER Tennessee
Line from BetJamacia on 10/5/05
Risking $500 to win $500
The Texans are off to an 0-3 start, but I look for them to get their first win of the season as 1-3 Tennessee comes to town. The Texans swept both meetings with the Titans last season and Tennessee is now in a rebuilding mode as they again endured catastrophic losses to their roster in the off season due to financial reasons. The Texans played better last week in their loss at Cincinnati. The Houston defense held the high scoring Bengals to just 16 points, but the offense only managed to put 10 points on the board. I think the Texans offense will have more success this week as they get to go against a Titans defense that has allowed 31 or more points in three out of their four games. The Titans are 0-6 against the spread after a division game over the last 2 seasons and only 2-10 against the spread after having lost two out of their last three games over the last 3 seasons. The Texans have been great at home in division games, posting a record of 6-0 against the spread in home games versus division opponents. Houston is also 10-1 against the spread after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and 10-1 against the spread after 2 or more consecutive losses. Lay the points!
3 STAR: BUFFALO (-2.5) OVER Miami
Line from BetJamacia on 10/6/05
Risking $330 to win $300
I like Buffalo to pick up the win here. The Bills have decided to put quarterback JP Losman on the bench for a while in favor of Kelly Holcomb. I like this move as Losman has been unimpressive with a 55.9 passer rating through the first four games of the 2005 campaign while averaging just 108.3 yards passing per game with one touchdown and two interceptions. Holcomb can provide a spark to this offense and open up the passing thus giving Willis McGahee more room to run once the opposing defense has to respect the pass. Miami has played well at home this year winning both games against the Broncos and Panthers, but they struggled in their only road game against the NY Jets and their tough defense. I look for those road struggles to continue here at Buffalo against the Bills defense that is 7th in the league in total defense. The key to stopping the Dolphins is stopping the run. In their two wins they rushed for over 140 yards in both games, in their loss the Jets held them to only 66 yards on the ground. Look for a strong effort by the Buffalo defense to stop the run here. Miami is only 9-22 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog since 1992 and road underdogs that have a winning record and are coming off of an upset win as a home underdog are only 19-46 against the spread. Lay the points!
2 STAR: NY JETS (+3.5) OVER Tampa Bay
Line from BetJamacia on 10/6/05
Risking $220 to win $200
I see this as a very close game with someone winning by a field goal or less. The Bucs are off to a great start at 4-0, but their offense is not a juggernaut and their main weapon rookie running back Cadillac Williams is banged up and will most likely play at less than 100%. The Jets have all kinds of injury problems at quarterback with both Chad Pennington and Jay Feidler both out. The Jets have signed 19-year veteran Vinny Testaverde and he will get the start this week. Last week the Jets were forced to go with third-stringer Brooks Bollinger under center and Jets coach Herm Edwards used a very conservative game plan with Bollinger in last week's 13-3 loss to the Ravens. In that game Bollinger was 14 out of 28 for 148 yards and Curtis Martin rushed for just 30 yards on 13 attempts. I see the offense being opened up a bit more this week with Vinny under center keeping this game close all the way to the end. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring 14 or less points per game, coming off of a game in which they scored 6 points or less are 27-7 against the spread over the last 10 seasons. Also, home underdogs with a winning percentage of 25% or worse that have failed to cover the spread in two out of their last three games and are playing a team with a winning record. are 84-39 against the spread since 1983. J-E-T-S, JETS!, JETS!, JETS! Take the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-1 (+9.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 4-5 (-4.80 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.20 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 9-8 (+4.50 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $450
NFL
5 STAR: HOUSTON (-3)(+$100) OVER Tennessee
Line from BetJamacia on 10/5/05
Risking $500 to win $500
The Texans are off to an 0-3 start, but I look for them to get their first win of the season as 1-3 Tennessee comes to town. The Texans swept both meetings with the Titans last season and Tennessee is now in a rebuilding mode as they again endured catastrophic losses to their roster in the off season due to financial reasons. The Texans played better last week in their loss at Cincinnati. The Houston defense held the high scoring Bengals to just 16 points, but the offense only managed to put 10 points on the board. I think the Texans offense will have more success this week as they get to go against a Titans defense that has allowed 31 or more points in three out of their four games. The Titans are 0-6 against the spread after a division game over the last 2 seasons and only 2-10 against the spread after having lost two out of their last three games over the last 3 seasons. The Texans have been great at home in division games, posting a record of 6-0 against the spread in home games versus division opponents. Houston is also 10-1 against the spread after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and 10-1 against the spread after 2 or more consecutive losses. Lay the points!
3 STAR: BUFFALO (-2.5) OVER Miami
Line from BetJamacia on 10/6/05
Risking $330 to win $300
I like Buffalo to pick up the win here. The Bills have decided to put quarterback JP Losman on the bench for a while in favor of Kelly Holcomb. I like this move as Losman has been unimpressive with a 55.9 passer rating through the first four games of the 2005 campaign while averaging just 108.3 yards passing per game with one touchdown and two interceptions. Holcomb can provide a spark to this offense and open up the passing thus giving Willis McGahee more room to run once the opposing defense has to respect the pass. Miami has played well at home this year winning both games against the Broncos and Panthers, but they struggled in their only road game against the NY Jets and their tough defense. I look for those road struggles to continue here at Buffalo against the Bills defense that is 7th in the league in total defense. The key to stopping the Dolphins is stopping the run. In their two wins they rushed for over 140 yards in both games, in their loss the Jets held them to only 66 yards on the ground. Look for a strong effort by the Buffalo defense to stop the run here. Miami is only 9-22 against the spread after an upset win as an underdog since 1992 and road underdogs that have a winning record and are coming off of an upset win as a home underdog are only 19-46 against the spread. Lay the points!
2 STAR: NY JETS (+3.5) OVER Tampa Bay
Line from BetJamacia on 10/6/05
Risking $220 to win $200
I see this as a very close game with someone winning by a field goal or less. The Bucs are off to a great start at 4-0, but their offense is not a juggernaut and their main weapon rookie running back Cadillac Williams is banged up and will most likely play at less than 100%. The Jets have all kinds of injury problems at quarterback with both Chad Pennington and Jay Feidler both out. The Jets have signed 19-year veteran Vinny Testaverde and he will get the start this week. Last week the Jets were forced to go with third-stringer Brooks Bollinger under center and Jets coach Herm Edwards used a very conservative game plan with Bollinger in last week's 13-3 loss to the Ravens. In that game Bollinger was 14 out of 28 for 148 yards and Curtis Martin rushed for just 30 yards on 13 attempts. I see the offense being opened up a bit more this week with Vinny under center keeping this game close all the way to the end. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring 14 or less points per game, coming off of a game in which they scored 6 points or less are 27-7 against the spread over the last 10 seasons. Also, home underdogs with a winning percentage of 25% or worse that have failed to cover the spread in two out of their last three games and are playing a team with a winning record. are 84-39 against the spread since 1983. J-E-T-S, JETS!, JETS!, JETS! Take the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-1 (+9.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 4-5 (-4.80 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.20 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 9-8 (+4.50 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $450
It's always noon somewhere! 
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