System In Effect Tonight...

[BigTicket]

Hey guys, I found this somewhere else and thought it could be helpful.


Play on any NFL away dog of at least 3.5 points when (a) the opposing team has allowed more than 20 points in their previous game and (b) the O/U line for the current game is over 42

10/2/05

Gb+7.5/43 vs CAR (27 PA vs MIA)


I haven't picked a side yet so I am not necessarily hinting at playing GB!

[BigTicket]

2004: 16-8

since 1989 season : 143-106-1 (57.4% over sixteen seasons)

Also, 57.4% since start of 2000 season.

(found this too, if it's wrong I am sure Frank will let us know)

[griffey_mojo]

Thanks BT!

[JamminJ]

Ya know the only problem with system plays is that we all over analyze and in the end 10 years ago half the team wasn't playing for them and the other team so the outcome back then doesn't really help decide who win today. I will tell you this is that it is Favre and his monday magic against Carolina and thier Defence. that is where it will be won not from 10 years ago. But GL 0n your play!

[BigTicket]

Ya know the only problem with system plays is that we all over analyze and in the end 10 years ago half the team wasn't playing for them and the other team so the outcome back then doesn't really help decide who win today. I will tell you this is that it is Favre and his monday magic against Carolina and thier Defence. that is where it will be won not from 10 years ago. But GL 0n your play!

ok....

A) This isn't my play, as I stated in my post, I posted this to benefit the forum and its members.

B) I disagree that this is a case of "over-analyzing," all this is doing is using data, emprical evidence, to back one side or another in this play. This system, as the author stated, went 16-8 LAST SEASON! That's not 10 years ago. I think over-analyzing comes into play when people think that every single game is a trap and here is why you should play this game, etc.

C) as much as you don't want to believe it, history repeats itself. No, not every time, but I do believe the results of this system over 16 seasons (37 games above .500), DOES have something to do with where the number will fall tonight...

GOOD LUCK

[BLOCK044]

...so what's your play?

[10DimeBry]

BT,

play carolina buddy.

[frankb03]

2004: 16-8

since 1989 season : 143-106-1 (57.4% over sixteen seasons)

Also, 57.4% since start of 2000 season.

(found this too, if it's wrong I am sure Frank will let us know)

BT, your stats are correct.

GL buddy

[BigTicket]

...so what's your play?

i don't have one, too tough to call, i dont want to fade homer right now, i would fade bry (haha jk bud), and this seems like a perfect example of an action bet.

I can't get over that line though, 7.5. You have so many things working here, carolina's poor home fav ATS record, Favre never losing 4 games in a row SU, Favre on Monday night, yet the line comes out at 7.5?? i agree with Homer, they are looking for packer money, but I dont want to be the sucker. I just thought this system would be helpful to someone, one way or the other, i am sure it is!

[frankb03]

Ya know the only problem with system plays is that we all over analyze and in the end 10 years ago half the team wasn't playing for them and the other team so the outcome back then doesn't really help decide who win today. I will tell you this is that it is Favre and his monday magic against Carolina and thier Defence. that is where it will be won not from 10 years ago. But GL 0n your play!

I disagree with this statement.

As BT stated there's situations in all sports that will never change. My rushing system is a good example. It won't win every week or every year. In 16 season it's a few games below 60%. In those 16 years its been active over 400 times. IMO that's a pretty impressive system. It's a situation that will never lose long-term. The ability to rush the football has been part of winning football games since day one. That will never change.

I do believe once good system becomes public knowledge they lose their profitability. That is why I never reveal any of my systems.

I have similar situations in NBA that IMO will not lose long-term. There are other systems that turn sour. Such as the four road games in 5 nights. Years ago that was a great system. Vegas now knows about that system and adjusts the lines.

The key with playing systems is to stick with them and trust them. As many fellow BC members can attest. I had some plays last season in the NBA that I didn't like and other BC members didn't like. But I know long-term they'll win. More often than not a game I didn't like ended up covering.

[frankb03]

I just thought this system would be helpful to someone, one way or the other, i am sure it is!

It is helpful. Some like playing systems while others like fading.

[Kaptain]

gl to ya tonight my man---thanks for the info---kapt