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BOOOOM VERY NICE DAY IN NCAA YESTERDAY SWEEPING BOTH OF THE TOP PLAYS. IS IT ONLY ME OR IS THIS WEEK TOUGH IN THE NFL? I HAVE BEEN TRYING ALL WEEK TO COME UP WITH STRONG SELECTIONS BUT EVERYTIME I LOOK THERE IS A NEW (SIGNIFICANT) INJURY WHICH CREATES ENTIRELY DIFFERENT MATCHUP SITUATIONS. I HAVE WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 17 WEEKS COMBINED IN NCAAF AND NFL CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. I HAVE NOT HAD A LOSING WEEK THIS YEAR IN THE NFL, AND HAVE WON AN AMAZING 12 STRAIGHT WEEKS CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* ATLANTA -6
1* KANSAS CITY -1.5
1* INDIANAPOLIS -7
Opinions: TAMPA BAY -6.5 DOWNGRADED
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MINNESOTA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 4:15 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Vikes (1-2 SU, ATS) needed a win badly last week and they got it with a win over the Saints, a team without a home that’s been traveling extensively for the past seven weeks. Sorry, but that doesn’t convince me of anything. The majority of the Vikings’ production came on big single plays. They really struggled to put together any kind of lengthy drive after the first quarter versus a Saints defense that is average at best. Four New Orleans turnovers set up four scores for Minnesota, with each of those scoring drives going less than 53 yards and the longest consisting of just one passing play. Meanwhile, Atlanta's Michael Vick scampered for 64 yards on nine carries, including a 27-yarder that left three defenders diving for air and passed 15-of-27 for 167 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 26-14 win at Buffalo. RB Warrick Dunn, with 97 yards rushing, and T.J. Duckett, with 75 yards rushing and a touchdown, rolled through the Bills and keep the Falcons simple game plan rolling -- on the ground. The Atlanta defense was again tough, limiting the Bills to 208 yards.
Expect the same type of lethargic road effort from the Vikings that we saw at Cincinnati 2 weeks ago. You have to have good run defense when playing the Falcons, and notice the Vikings allow 4.7 yards per carry and 134 yards rushing per game, 3rd worst in the NFL! Granted, both QBs are very good, but the Vikings weak run defense will "be their won't here!" And one good game against the poor Saints doesn't change the fact that Culpepper still has 3 TDs, 8 interceptions! Fundamentally the Falcons should be able to move the ball both on the ground, and over the top at will in this match-up. Minnesota is really hurting in the secondary so look for Atlanta slot receiver Finneran (one of Vicks favorite targets) to have a solid day against Minnesota's DB Ralph Brown when the Vikings are in their nickel package. Atlanta has a very athletic front 7, and they'll be especially aggressive at the point of attack vs the interior of the Vikings offensive line.
Projected Score: ATL Falcons 28, MIN Vikings 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ATLANTA -6
PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 4:15 PM
vs 
Analysis
After an embarrassing loss on national television, Dick Vermeil will have his Chiefs ready for this non-conference contest a game that is more important to the Chiefs than the Eagles. The Chiefs are very good at dictating the style and tempo of home games, so going into arrowhead Stadium possibly taking less than a field goal represents an uphill climb and this could be the toughest road game Philly has all year long. The Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), and the first one they played poorly in a 14-10 loss at Atlanta. Philly's passing attack is No. 1 in the NFL averaging 352 yards behind QB Donovan McNabb and star WR Terrell Owens. Philadelphia is an incredible 26-9 SU, 24-11 ATS on the road the last 4+ years! However, they allowed 344 pass yards to Oakland last week, a 23-20 squeaker, and this Kansas City team knows how to run and pass! The Eagles also have injuries including to some key players. The Eagles have no reason to risk further injuries, especially if Kansas City gets out to an early lead. An offensive genius like Vermeil will have the offense primed for a big effort against a depleted Eagles club. The Chiefs have been playing well, overall, with weapons like QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes, RB Larry Johnson, and WR Eddie Kennison. The revamped defense got run over with its first bad game last week, and was confused all night. Denver ran for 221 yards, 6 yards per carry! Most disappointing for the Chiefs was the collapse of their run defense, though they catch a break here as Philly is not much of a running team. Although, Philly does have a very good pass rush, look for KC to go to its ground game and have a balanced attack, which is when they play their best on offense. The KC offense was No. 1 in the NFL last season. The versatile offensive attack of the Chiefs should give the Philly defense fits. At Arrowhead Stadium, it's hard to play against the Chiefs.
Projected Score: KC Chiefs 30, PHI Eagles 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY -1.5
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 0) at TENNESSEE (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Hard to imagine, but Indianapolis (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) hasn't had much offense thus far, but the big story has been a lights-out defense allowing 5 points pg, 322 yards pg (93 rushing, 229 passing pg). QB Peyton Manning (2 TDs, 2 INTs) is taking what the defense gives them, and the team is averaging 315.7 yards per game, 15.7 points. But this is still a talented offense with RB Edgerrin James, and WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. The Colts are 14-6 SU, 12-7-1 ATS their last 20 road games. Facing a 3-4, zone-oriented scheme by Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel, the Colts maximized the presence of RB Edgerrin James (27 carries, 108 yards) and relied on a controlled passing game (Manning was 19-of-23). The ups and downs of a young Tennessee Titans team (1-2 SU/ATS) have been well-documented. In Game 1, it looked like they couldn't stop anyone. In Game 2, they looked much improved and, in Game 3, the Titans were just a play away. Tennessee has a very young team which will be tested by this versatile Indy offense. Tennessee’s young defense is allowing 25 ppg and 322 total yds (107 rushing, 4.3 ypc, 215 passing yards pg). QB Steve McNair (4 TDs, 3 INTs) leads a team that is just 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS their last 9 home games (1-0 SU/ATS this season). They lost 34-7 at Pittsburgh, and last week 31-27 at St. Louis, but won 25-10 in their only home game over Baltimore. A year ago, the Colts flattened the Titans twice, 31-17 and 51-24. In those games, Peyton Manning had 244 and 417 pass yards.
The Colts are going to break out of their offensive slump any game now and this certainly could be the match-up that fits the bill. Edgerrin James ran for 100 yards in both games against Tennessee last year and Peyton Manning can certainly take advantage of the Titans’ inexperienced defense. For those of you unconvinced, I pose a question to you. If you forget about the spread at all…who do you think will win this game SU? If you think Indy will win then don’t worry about laying the touchdown and here is the reason why. Tennessee is 0-27 against the line in its last 27 home losses. Plus if you think Indy’s defense (which has only allowed 16 points in three games) can hold Tennessee to 17 or less, bet with confidence knowing that the Titans are 1-17 ATS in their last 18 home games where they've failed to score more than 17, including 12 consecutive ATS losses. Indianapolis has won and covered the last four in this series and the talent gap between these two AFC South rivals continues to widen. Oh did I forget to mention that the Titans will be without running back Travis Henry, who is going to be suspended by the NFL for violating the substance abuse policy and might also be without star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (check status) again this week. Expect the Colts to spread the ball around and play good defense like they have in the first three weeks of the season. Should be a blowout!
Forecast: IND Colts 28, TEN Titans 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON INDIANAPOLIS -7
DETROIT (1 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 0)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The Lions (1-1 SU, ATS) are a mess. Finger-pointing is flourishing in the Motor City, making team unity a thing of the past. Harrington blamed his offensive line who blamed the defense who blamed the coaches for the 38-6 debacle in Chicago. Against the Bears, Detroit had trouble breaking through the Bears' line, and Chicago's offense sprang to life after being held to 166 yards against Washington. QB Joey Harrington struggled against the Chicago pressure, completing 19 of 37 passes for 196 yards. Detroit managed just 12 yards rushing in the first half and 29 in all on 18 carries. Defensive coordinator Dick Jauron is under fire, as well, after allowing 178 rush yards against the Bears. Coach Steve Mariucci said everybody has to take blame for the 38-6 loss to the Bears, from the coaches to the quarterback, offensive line, wide receivers and defense. However, it's still clear that Harrington is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. If he keeps playing poorly, the Lions will have no choice but to go to their backup quarterback, Dan Orlovsky, the rookie fifth-round pick out of Connecticut. The Bucs, meanwhile, broke their Lambeau Field "curse" Sunday when they nipped the Packers at Lambeau 17-16 for the first time since 1989. Rookie RB Cadillac Williams ran for 158 yards on 37 carries and QB Brian Griese threw a couple of TD passes to WR Joey Galloway. The Buccaneers' defense kept stifling Green Bay in the fourth quarter with timely plays.
The problem here is that the Lions allowed 187 rushing yards, 5.1 ypc, against the Bears, which means Cadillac Williams will run wild. And Detroit has no running game (131 rush yards TOTAL in two games), which means Harrington will have to pass to win this game right into the heart of the speedy T-Bay 'D'. There are multiple handicapping elements that point to the Bucs as the right side to be on in this contest, trends, emotion, and basics: You have the horrible road record of the Lions (6 straight SU losses), who play in a dome, traveling south to play on grass (5-10 ATS) against a team that is a red hot 3-0 and has the NFL’s #1 Defense and a solid running game. There are also fundamental match-up advantages favoring the Bucs, with their precision short pass attack vs a depleted Lions secondary that is without their top rated cornerback, Fernando Bryant, who is lost for the season. I just cannot foresee the Lions putting much on the scoreboard in Tampa, meanwhile there is every reason to expect the Bucs will control time-of-possession by a significant margin and put this one away early in the 2nd half. Toss in this eye-opening stat and you know why the Bucs are the side this week: 3-0 Game 4 NFL home favorites of less than 7 points are 21- 7 ATS, including 13-0 ATS against non-division foes!
Forecast: Detroit 7, Tampa Bay 24
OPINION SELECTION ON TAMPA BAY -6.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* ATLANTA -6
1* KANSAS CITY -1.5
1* INDIANAPOLIS -7
Opinions: TAMPA BAY -6.5 DOWNGRADED
--------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 4:15 PM
vs Analysis
The Vikes (1-2 SU, ATS) needed a win badly last week and they got it with a win over the Saints, a team without a home that’s been traveling extensively for the past seven weeks. Sorry, but that doesn’t convince me of anything. The majority of the Vikings’ production came on big single plays. They really struggled to put together any kind of lengthy drive after the first quarter versus a Saints defense that is average at best. Four New Orleans turnovers set up four scores for Minnesota, with each of those scoring drives going less than 53 yards and the longest consisting of just one passing play. Meanwhile, Atlanta's Michael Vick scampered for 64 yards on nine carries, including a 27-yarder that left three defenders diving for air and passed 15-of-27 for 167 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 26-14 win at Buffalo. RB Warrick Dunn, with 97 yards rushing, and T.J. Duckett, with 75 yards rushing and a touchdown, rolled through the Bills and keep the Falcons simple game plan rolling -- on the ground. The Atlanta defense was again tough, limiting the Bills to 208 yards.
Expect the same type of lethargic road effort from the Vikings that we saw at Cincinnati 2 weeks ago. You have to have good run defense when playing the Falcons, and notice the Vikings allow 4.7 yards per carry and 134 yards rushing per game, 3rd worst in the NFL! Granted, both QBs are very good, but the Vikings weak run defense will "be their won't here!" And one good game against the poor Saints doesn't change the fact that Culpepper still has 3 TDs, 8 interceptions! Fundamentally the Falcons should be able to move the ball both on the ground, and over the top at will in this match-up. Minnesota is really hurting in the secondary so look for Atlanta slot receiver Finneran (one of Vicks favorite targets) to have a solid day against Minnesota's DB Ralph Brown when the Vikings are in their nickel package. Atlanta has a very athletic front 7, and they'll be especially aggressive at the point of attack vs the interior of the Vikings offensive line.
Projected Score: ATL Falcons 28, MIN Vikings 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ATLANTA -6
PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 1)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 4:15 PM
vs Analysis
After an embarrassing loss on national television, Dick Vermeil will have his Chiefs ready for this non-conference contest a game that is more important to the Chiefs than the Eagles. The Chiefs are very good at dictating the style and tempo of home games, so going into arrowhead Stadium possibly taking less than a field goal represents an uphill climb and this could be the toughest road game Philly has all year long. The Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), and the first one they played poorly in a 14-10 loss at Atlanta. Philly's passing attack is No. 1 in the NFL averaging 352 yards behind QB Donovan McNabb and star WR Terrell Owens. Philadelphia is an incredible 26-9 SU, 24-11 ATS on the road the last 4+ years! However, they allowed 344 pass yards to Oakland last week, a 23-20 squeaker, and this Kansas City team knows how to run and pass! The Eagles also have injuries including to some key players. The Eagles have no reason to risk further injuries, especially if Kansas City gets out to an early lead. An offensive genius like Vermeil will have the offense primed for a big effort against a depleted Eagles club. The Chiefs have been playing well, overall, with weapons like QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes, RB Larry Johnson, and WR Eddie Kennison. The revamped defense got run over with its first bad game last week, and was confused all night. Denver ran for 221 yards, 6 yards per carry! Most disappointing for the Chiefs was the collapse of their run defense, though they catch a break here as Philly is not much of a running team. Although, Philly does have a very good pass rush, look for KC to go to its ground game and have a balanced attack, which is when they play their best on offense. The KC offense was No. 1 in the NFL last season. The versatile offensive attack of the Chiefs should give the Philly defense fits. At Arrowhead Stadium, it's hard to play against the Chiefs.
Projected Score: KC Chiefs 30, PHI Eagles 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS CITY -1.5
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 0) at TENNESSEE (1 - 2)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
Hard to imagine, but Indianapolis (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) hasn't had much offense thus far, but the big story has been a lights-out defense allowing 5 points pg, 322 yards pg (93 rushing, 229 passing pg). QB Peyton Manning (2 TDs, 2 INTs) is taking what the defense gives them, and the team is averaging 315.7 yards per game, 15.7 points. But this is still a talented offense with RB Edgerrin James, and WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. The Colts are 14-6 SU, 12-7-1 ATS their last 20 road games. Facing a 3-4, zone-oriented scheme by Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel, the Colts maximized the presence of RB Edgerrin James (27 carries, 108 yards) and relied on a controlled passing game (Manning was 19-of-23). The ups and downs of a young Tennessee Titans team (1-2 SU/ATS) have been well-documented. In Game 1, it looked like they couldn't stop anyone. In Game 2, they looked much improved and, in Game 3, the Titans were just a play away. Tennessee has a very young team which will be tested by this versatile Indy offense. Tennessee’s young defense is allowing 25 ppg and 322 total yds (107 rushing, 4.3 ypc, 215 passing yards pg). QB Steve McNair (4 TDs, 3 INTs) leads a team that is just 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS their last 9 home games (1-0 SU/ATS this season). They lost 34-7 at Pittsburgh, and last week 31-27 at St. Louis, but won 25-10 in their only home game over Baltimore. A year ago, the Colts flattened the Titans twice, 31-17 and 51-24. In those games, Peyton Manning had 244 and 417 pass yards.
The Colts are going to break out of their offensive slump any game now and this certainly could be the match-up that fits the bill. Edgerrin James ran for 100 yards in both games against Tennessee last year and Peyton Manning can certainly take advantage of the Titans’ inexperienced defense. For those of you unconvinced, I pose a question to you. If you forget about the spread at all…who do you think will win this game SU? If you think Indy will win then don’t worry about laying the touchdown and here is the reason why. Tennessee is 0-27 against the line in its last 27 home losses. Plus if you think Indy’s defense (which has only allowed 16 points in three games) can hold Tennessee to 17 or less, bet with confidence knowing that the Titans are 1-17 ATS in their last 18 home games where they've failed to score more than 17, including 12 consecutive ATS losses. Indianapolis has won and covered the last four in this series and the talent gap between these two AFC South rivals continues to widen. Oh did I forget to mention that the Titans will be without running back Travis Henry, who is going to be suspended by the NFL for violating the substance abuse policy and might also be without star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (check status) again this week. Expect the Colts to spread the ball around and play good defense like they have in the first three weeks of the season. Should be a blowout!
Forecast: IND Colts 28, TEN Titans 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON INDIANAPOLIS -7
DETROIT (1 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 0)
Week 4 Sunday, 10/2/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
The Lions (1-1 SU, ATS) are a mess. Finger-pointing is flourishing in the Motor City, making team unity a thing of the past. Harrington blamed his offensive line who blamed the defense who blamed the coaches for the 38-6 debacle in Chicago. Against the Bears, Detroit had trouble breaking through the Bears' line, and Chicago's offense sprang to life after being held to 166 yards against Washington. QB Joey Harrington struggled against the Chicago pressure, completing 19 of 37 passes for 196 yards. Detroit managed just 12 yards rushing in the first half and 29 in all on 18 carries. Defensive coordinator Dick Jauron is under fire, as well, after allowing 178 rush yards against the Bears. Coach Steve Mariucci said everybody has to take blame for the 38-6 loss to the Bears, from the coaches to the quarterback, offensive line, wide receivers and defense. However, it's still clear that Harrington is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. If he keeps playing poorly, the Lions will have no choice but to go to their backup quarterback, Dan Orlovsky, the rookie fifth-round pick out of Connecticut. The Bucs, meanwhile, broke their Lambeau Field "curse" Sunday when they nipped the Packers at Lambeau 17-16 for the first time since 1989. Rookie RB Cadillac Williams ran for 158 yards on 37 carries and QB Brian Griese threw a couple of TD passes to WR Joey Galloway. The Buccaneers' defense kept stifling Green Bay in the fourth quarter with timely plays.
The problem here is that the Lions allowed 187 rushing yards, 5.1 ypc, against the Bears, which means Cadillac Williams will run wild. And Detroit has no running game (131 rush yards TOTAL in two games), which means Harrington will have to pass to win this game right into the heart of the speedy T-Bay 'D'. There are multiple handicapping elements that point to the Bucs as the right side to be on in this contest, trends, emotion, and basics: You have the horrible road record of the Lions (6 straight SU losses), who play in a dome, traveling south to play on grass (5-10 ATS) against a team that is a red hot 3-0 and has the NFL’s #1 Defense and a solid running game. There are also fundamental match-up advantages favoring the Bucs, with their precision short pass attack vs a depleted Lions secondary that is without their top rated cornerback, Fernando Bryant, who is lost for the season. I just cannot foresee the Lions putting much on the scoreboard in Tampa, meanwhile there is every reason to expect the Bucs will control time-of-possession by a significant margin and put this one away early in the 2nd half. Toss in this eye-opening stat and you know why the Bucs are the side this week: 3-0 Game 4 NFL home favorites of less than 7 points are 21- 7 ATS, including 13-0 ATS against non-division foes!
Forecast: Detroit 7, Tampa Bay 24
OPINION SELECTION ON TAMPA BAY -6.5
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