LINE MOVEMENT????-spark, rip, wayne, etc...

[RJeremy]

frank and wayne are right too, everyone has their own capping methods and as long as you're winning, so be it.

and frank, wayne, and myself probably all cap games differently, and we all win pretty consistantly and a lot of money....

[phinsphan23]

Vinny & others...line moved Cincy from +13 to +10--LOSER! Air Force went from +5.5 to +3.5--LOSER!

[frankb03]

yea, i reallly like pitt due to the big line movement. of course nothing hits 100%, but i put a lot into line movements.

This is what confuses me about the 'Line Movement' style of capping. You are betting with the PUBLIC.

While some go against public opinion.

[Kaptain]

Punisher---heres the Kaptins take on that question....I for one do not use line movement at all....heres my reason...There are 2 different kinds of line movement...

General Public----average Joes, betting on their Alumni and with their heart....Public loves favorites........Public loves a ranked team + points against an unranked team - points...you know how that works out......

Parlance Players---Smart Money players......I've seen the public play about 80-85 % on a team, yet the money was 70-75% on the other....So do you go with the public or the smart money....

Public is often more times than one thinks....It's the VIG the Bookies make their money on....Lines are moves sometimes to balance wagering, so books make VIG either way.....

There are numerous so called reports out there saying they know what % the public is on, and what % smart money is on....The key is to know which one is accurate...no one knows, these reports are BS....I saw a report that said 80% was on a team, called my Son who works at Harrahs, and he said 74-80% of their wagers was on the other side.....so you see---who knows...

It's a good question, one I've been asking myself for 40+ years, and still dont have, wont have the answer....Once you find this answer, the Casinos would pay you to work for them...............

You've been a good capper here doing it your way, I say continue to do so the way you have been....Thats just my opinion on a subject that has been questioned since day one.....Inside Info (Casino workers) is helpful if you play against the public, but remember the public is right more than you think...so the question is right back where we started from, is this the Game the public is right or not....

I reiterate---you're a good capper, stay as you are....Hope you take this constructively as thats how its meant....I pick mine as I see em, and don't care who is on em, or against em......Some can show numerous illustrations proving their way is the best, and I can find that many more to illustrate their way is best....

IMO---forget what the Public is on, or what you conceive (what they want you to believe) the public is on....The bookies are a smart group, and cover all ends....

Best to ya----Stay as you are....kapt

[thesandman]

Punisher. Years ago the Gold Sheet had a little section where they showed the games with the biggest line moves from the week before and which team covered. Most of the time you would have made money playing against the line move and as the Gold Sheet kept saying, you are getting a lot of line value playing against the line moves. I don't know if they still include this info in their writeups. Using tonights game as an example, the value is to play Rutgers.

[frankb03]

There are numerous so called reports out there saying they know what % the public is on, and what % smart money is on....The key is to know which one is accurate...no one knows, these reports are BS....I saw a report that said 80% was on a team, called my Son who works at Harrahs, and he said 74-80% of their wagers was on the other side.....so you see---who knows...

Kapt, you raised a good point here. I know some online books post where the action is going?

Does anyone actually trust what the sportbooks are reporting? I don't.

[frankb03]

Most of the time you would have made money playing against the line move and as the Gold Sheet kept saying, you are getting a lot of line value playing against the line moves.

Sandman, I apply this theory to injuries to star players. Vegas adjusts the line when a star player is injured. The public loves to fade teams with an injured star.

I love playing on teams with a key injury. I often get double value.

[vinnyvegas]

your welcome frank & others...all this that has been mentioned is very debateable...I don't mean to say that Vegas does or does not know the outcome or wants an outcome...but I do know that lines are moved to entice bettors one way or another...I've lost my damn train of thought on this whole thing...so I'll just jump out for now & maybe jump back in when I know what the hell I'm trying to say/convey...LOL

[frankb03]

I've lost my damn train of thought on this whole thing...so I'll just jump out for now & maybe jump back in when I know what the hell I'm trying to say/convey...LOL

The funniest post of the day.

LMAO

[vinnyvegas]

Vinny & others...line moved Cincy from +13 to +10--LOSER! Air Force went from +5.5 to +3.5--LOSER!

phins,

I don't mean to say I strictly use the lines to pick a team...it's one of the checklist items...I had one of those correct & one wrong in the games you mentioned...I didn't simple look at line movement & say there it is...much more goes into it than that...LOL

Tonights Rutgers game had a huge line movement...RB situation for Pitt is the main reason I believe that happened...the money 'appears' to all heading Pitts way and some references support this by showing an overwhelming number of bets on Pitt...so in this whole discussion, one or some might jump on Rutgers, a home DOG now & a public FADE and be done.

I've said, I'm playing neither of these CHITTY teams and will save my wagers for games tomorrow that have more value and interest...to each their own...

GLTA regardless of which team or sys or capping method you choose.

[Spark]

Bottom line in MHO is that if you bet JUST according to line movements you will get crushed ... I have seen it happen over and over again .. just like someone in here said ... do you honestly think they would make it that easy??? ... and are we really getting the correct money moves?? ...

[Luv2Play2]

jason>>.sportsinsights is just another ' SERVICE" STAY THE FUC AWAY.......
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH ....... THE BOOK HAS A GOOD IDEA WHAT WE ARE DOING..
BOL ALL ....... L2P2 THINKS BASEBAL SUX. LMAO BOL ALLLLLLLL

[phinsphan23]

YES! Rutgers 7-0! Roll Scarlet Knights!

[phinsphan23]

FUMBLE! Rutgers ball!

[PUNISHER]

Guys, very interesting post by all. That's what I was looking for. I wanted to see how everyone capped their games and wanted to see if people used line movement as one of them. What really got me thinking about it was RJeremy goes with the line movement(I know this) I myself usually go away from it or go away from what others are doing. Easiest example I can use:
Do most people make money in this business?? NO. Of course not. Some bad money management others just pick bad games, or follow the money as I see it. I think if your doing what everyone else is, then you'll get the results everyone else is. So here are my rules. flat bet everything or close to it. I've tried spaying my money all over the board 300 hundred here 500 here and that usually got me crushed. But I usually hit my BIG plays as I call them. So what did I start doing........reduced my plays and up my total bet on my bigger plays and just started flat betting, $1,000 a game. Now if I have some really good info on a game, like many know here I know many assisant coaches, GA's and friends of players and players as well(not as many as I used too ) But that's how I do it and it has worked great for a few years now. I hit the games I "know" like Colorado St. (4-1) so far this year and alot of the Ohio teams. I used to know players on Ohio St and some of the MAC schools. Every once in awhile I still get calls, because they know I love to gamble, they will call and say hit this game....talked to so in so, hears the game plan.....shit works great for totals! Anyway..........

Thanks vinny for the post! I would be interested to see what articles are out there about the services as well. Spark, I know you probably have info on this! For example, awhile back, I heard a few games a year the books and the sevices go in on and try to just crush the players following the services. Like GOY's and such. THe books pay sevices to tout a game they feel strongly will go the other way. Usually happens like 3 or 4th week in. They let the players get up a little in the beginning or basically don't want to do it right off the bat, becasue the public would figure it out, but the services will be doing ok, and boom GOY, everyone hopes on and what ALWAYS happens..........BUST. you know the sad thing. I used to be that guy. you watch, all the services will be touting the SAME damn game, and no matter how hard you want to put money the other way.....you can't or I never did. I would "know" something was up and still bet the same damn side. I remember a few years back, every service had Arizona St against Iowa, line was like ASU getting 6 at Iowa. Iowa looked horrible the first few games and ASU had played well. Looked like a great pick...........you guys can probably figure out just from my senario what happened, Iowa blew them out, not even close. I talked to ACE, a handicapper, some thing scamdicapper, and he even said, happens all the time, books get in with the services. That's when I knew I was in the right spot when I saw this fade the service stuff a few years back. I knew this forum was different and very wise. Well, hope that gives ya a little insight on how I cap games. Just watch Rips thread for the BIG one coming up. Its about time. If you look services didn't do to bad first week. They're getting ready for the kill and I'll be watching for it. Really that's the only time I really look at the fades and stuff.....there's always that ONE big games that gets popped by all the services. Just watch for that one!

-PUNISHER