LINE MOVEMENT????-spark, rip, wayne, etc...

[PUNISHER]

QUESTION????

And this mainly goes for college football.

Does anyone have any stats on line movement and W/L records?
Basically, when the line moves, what is the % that game wins?

Like USC/Arizona St. LINE: opened: 14.5 and moved to 15.5

What is the % that USC then goes on to cover???? Make sense??

I've looked all over the net and can't really find anything on it. You guys know these BIG "Steam" plays, just wondering how they do. In my experiece over the years, I usually go away from it. What do you guys think???

Thanks in advance!

[PUNISHER]

nobody has any info on this??????

SPARK, I would have thought you or Rip would have some stats on this.

[RJeremy]

follow the line movement!

[PUNISHER]

follow the line movement!

I knew your ass would say that!!!
I'm looking for someone that's knows a thing or two.........

[jason18]

check sportsbook.com and sportsinsights and check the % on who is betting who and also line movement.Very helpful info.

[Spark]

Pun, I am not a big follower on line movements ... I am a HUGE follower on fading though ... I always want to be on the books side .. and I usually do well in all sports ... so I guess you can say I play against the line ... Before I make a wager I always ask my books what side they need ... if I play the side he does not need I worry ... if I play the side he needs I feel more comfortable .. sometimes I do not know what side I am playing until I ask them ... if he says he needs ND, Hawaii and NC I would say OK, give me a nick on each ... and that is the truth ...

I do not have a site where you can go and see the percentages on this ... let me do some research for you and I will let you know if I find anything ...

[mes5107]

If you go to sportsbook.com, look for the football research center on the main page, then click on NCAAF, and find the game report you want. If you scroll down...it will tell you this for USC/ASU:

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring USC in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in USC games 53.7% of the time since 1992. (73-63)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in USC games 64% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (16-9)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ARIZONA ST games 49.2% of the time since 1992. (58-60)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ARIZONA ST games 48% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (12-13)

[Spark]

That is interesting ...

[PUNISHER]

Pun, I am not a big follower on line movements ... I am a HUGE follower on fading though ... I always want to be on the books side .. and I usually do well in all sports ... so I guess you can say I play against the line ... Before I make a wager I always ask my books what side they need ... if I play the side he does not need I worry ... if I play the side he needs I feel more comfortable .. sometimes I do not know what side I am playing until I ask them ... if he says he needs ND, Hawaii and NC I would say OK, give me a nick on each ... and that is the truth ...

I do not have a site where you can go and see the percentages on this ... let me do some research for you and I will let you know if I find anything ...

Thanks Spark. I knew you would have some "useful" insight, unlike RonJeremy character........geez.......guy is all over the net!

Seriously though, you bet pretty much the same way I do. The fades are a perfect example of going against the services I was just wondering about going against the line movement as well. I just feel like there is something there, just can't uncover it! :confused:

[jason18]

also sportsinsights tells you how many bets they have on everygame,onlything that would be more helpful is how much money goes on each team

[PUNISHER]

If you go to sportsbook.com, look for the football research center on the main page, then click on NCAAF, and find the game report you want. If you scroll down...it will tell you this for USC/ASU:

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring USC in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in USC games 53.7% of the time since 1992. (73-63)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in USC games 64% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (16-9)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ARIZONA ST games 49.2% of the time since 1992. (58-60)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in ARIZONA ST games 48% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (12-13)

thanks for the info mes...........
this should help alot.
just looking thorugh a few looks like going against is the way!

Texas this week:
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in TEXAS games 47.8% of the time since 1992. (65-71)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in TEXAS games 45.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (11-13)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MISSOURI games 49.6% of the time since 1992. (60-61)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in MISSOURI games 36.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (8-14)

[frankb03]

Pun, I am not a big follower on line movements

Me either. I'm a big follower of my game. LOL

[WayneChung]

RE USC LINE MOVEMENT DuDES

THE LINE AT CRiS OPENED AT 14- AND QUICKLY WAS BET UP AS HIGH AS 17 BY MON. NIGHT,SINCE THEN A LOT OF SERVICES HAVE TOUTED ARIZ ST, PLUS THE POINTS AND THE WISEGUYS TOOK ARIZ. ST PLUS 16 TODAY AROUND 11.00 CENTRAL AM AT MOST OF THE MAJOR OFFSHORES WHICH MOVED THE LINE BACK TO 15////VERY TOUGH GAME TO CAP FOR ME-ARIZ ST. CAN COVER THiS SPREAD BUT THEIR QB IS GOING TO HAVE TO PLAY HIS HEART OUT AGAINST A VERY STRONG USC DEFENSE,REMEMBER THIS KID PLAYED A GREAT GAME AGAINST PURDUE IN THE BOWLS LAST YEAR AND SPECIAL TEAMS MELTDOWNS COST THEM THE GAME AGAINST LSU-WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID STILL TOUGH FOR ME TO PLUS THE POINTS IN THIS ONE!!

[vinnyvegas]

Pun...if you ask spark for my email, I've got a great article for you to read...an interview w/ one of the original or damn near close to it, guys who set lines in Vegas...quite interesting & would help you in understanding our business a bit more...

Lots of theories and guesses, but coming from an expert and insider, you'll have a greater understanding...

[chickswithpicks]

I have USC -17.. I would go with the Trojans if you touch this game