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WELL I CONTINUED MY TOTAL DOMINATION IN THE NFL AGAIN HITTING 4 OUT OF MY TOP FIVE PLAYS AND IF THE RAMS WERE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO THEIR 14 POINT FOURTH QUARTER LEAD WE WOULD HAVE HAD A MONSTER DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE NCAA WAS A DISASTER. MOST PEOPLE GOT KILLED THIS PAST WEEKEND AND I WAS NO EXCEPTION BUT I DID SEND OUT AN ADDENDUM AS BEFORE THE GAMES WERE EVEN STARTED I HAD A BAD FEELING ABOUT THE GAMES. I HAVE NOW WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 17 WEEKS FROM CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON AFTER LAST WEEKS VERY SMALL LOSS. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* MISSOURI +15 ADDED PROBABLE UPGRADE
1* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +15.5
1* OLE MISS/TENNESSE OVER 38.5
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TEXAS (3 - 0) at MISSOURI (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:00 PM
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Analysis
Both teams have had some time off to prepare for this rivalry game, won 28-20 a year ago by Texas. Texas (3-0 SU, ATS) has been dominant, winning games by an average score of 45-12 The Longhorns defeated Rice two weeks ago 51-10 when freshman Jamaal Charles ran for 189 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries in his first career start. After setting a UT freshman debut record with 135 yards in the season opener, Charles played a major role coming off the bench in Texas' win at Ohio State. He got his first start against Rice in place of the banged up Selvin Young, who has struggled to stay healthy in his return from a broken ankle last season. After passing for 270 yards and two scores against Ohio State, Vince Young was 8-for-14 for 101 yards with one interception, no touchdowns and 77 yards rushing. Missouri (2-1 SU, ATS) comes off a 52-21 rout of Troy State. Brad Smith once a Heisman hopeful was 23-of-33 for 183 yards and Tony Temple (80), Smith (79) and Woods (59) combined for 218 yards rushing on 32 carries.
I do not think there is any question that Texas is the better team in this match-up so I will say that from the start. With a whooping 85% of the betting public on Texas this week, this is not a game for the week at heart. So why or why are we going to be in the 15% that Lay our bets with confidence? Like some of the other games on my card there are lots of trends and a huge motivational factors in play for this contest. Both teams are coming off a bye week and I’m certain that the home underdog Tigers will pull out all the stops. Think about for a minute the Missouri QB Brad Smith who was once a Heisman hopeful and all of the talk that surrounded him involved his potential as a future top NFL QB. But for one-and-a-half seasons, while hearing about his own stock dropping, he has seen the star of Longhorns’ QB Vince Young rise and shine above him. Smith has come up big in big games before and I expect nothing short of a brilliant performance by him in this contest. Also consider that Smith is the best, most productive and most experienced player at the quarterback position that the Texas defense has faced this season.
The trend is also very much our friend this week as well. Consider that Missouri is 6-1 ATS its last 7 as an underdog. Home dogs who scored 40 or more and won the previous week (Missouri) have been a 60% play in college football for the last quarter century. Marc Lawrence also tells us that game four home dogs with a week of rest are 15-4 to the number in conference play and that Texas is a sorry 3-15 ATS as a favorite in its last 18 conference lid lifters. Moreover, road teams laying –7.5 points or more off bye weeks are 50-89 ATS (36%) over the last decade. Since 1980, Game 4 home teams off a win with rest are 50-30 ATS on the blind. When taking on a conference foe in this desired spot, they improve to 35-19 ATS. Missouri, with the right blend of emotion and heady play, can pull the upset, especially with Oklahoma lurking on deck for the Longhorns.
Projected Score: Texas 28, Missouri 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MISSOURI +15
MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 3) at VANDERBILT (4 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 7:00 PM
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Analysis
Vanderbilt has spent the 2005 season on a high, while Middle Tennessee has been very low, scoring only seven points in each of its first three games. A correction toward the norm for both is in order here. Last week the “Smart Kids” beat Richmond 37-13 and are atop the Eastern Division of the SEC with a perfect record of 4-0 (2-0 in league play). Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler again led the way. He completed 70 percent of his passes on 28 of 40 for 262 yards. Eric Davis, the Souheastern Conference’s active leader in receiving yards, again proved to be a solid target, producing a big game. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has been known for a wide-open passing attack in recent years. But not so much this season as Junior QB Clint Marks (2 TDs, 3 INTs) has been woeful, scoring only 7 points in each of its three losses. MTS had a bye last week, giving them time to figure out what ails an offense that does feature an extremely accurate QB in Clint Marks, who completed 70.4 percent of his throws in 2004 and is hitting 66.7 percent in 2005. Certainly the Blue Raiders’ D hasn’t been the problem, allowing only 19 points a game, which should be enough to get us a ATS win so long as they are able to put up some points. Middle Tennessee State, less than an hour southeast of Nashville, views Vanderbilt as one of its biggest rivals and they have had the week off to prepare for this game. Combine that with the fact that LSU visits Nashville next week, and the focus this week for a Sun Belt opponent probably won’t be what it should. The difference in raw talent isn’t as pronounced as this spread might indicate, so there is an opportunity for MTS to compete here and get its season back on track. Take the points and hope that this traditionally strong offense can put some points up and get back on track..
Forecast: Vanderbilt 28, Mid Tenn St 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +15.5
MISSISSIPPI (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:30 PM
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Analysis
With the notable exceptions of Deuce McAllister and Eli Manning and several solid offensive linemen, Ole Miss has just not recruited very well recently, and unfortunately they came out as losers again last week losing to Wyoming 24-14, making me lose one of my opinion selections. The Cowboys rolled up 383 yards of total offense and forced Ole Miss into four turnovers, spoiling Mississippi coach Ed Orgeron's home debut. Simply put, the Rebels have struggled mightily offensively. Backup QB Robert Lane was ineffective in replacing injured starter Michael Spurlock, who broke the middle finger on his left hand in the previous week's loss to Vanderbilt. Spurlock played in the second half, but was unable to rally the Rebels past the Cowboys. Spurlock finished 5-of-14 for 83 yards and a touchdown. Lane was 7-of-15 for 37 yards and turned the ball over on three consecutive series. HC Orgeron said senior QB Micheal Spurlock will start against the Vols if he's healthy enough to play. Defensively, the Rebels clearly missed junior LB Patrick Willis, who is out indefinitely with numerous injuries. Ole Miss tackled poorly as Wynel Seldon, the Cowboys' freshman tailback, rushed for 124 yards on 21 carries. They better not tackle poorly here. Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) overcame a three touchdown deficit and RB Gerald Riggs Jr. pushed into the end zone from a yard out in overtime to give Tennessee a wild 30-27 win Monday in LSU's long-awaited, hurricane-delayed home opener. QB Rick Clausen was the hero, finishing 21-for-32 for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and a TD run and appeared to settle the 10th-ranked Vols' quarterback controversy. Riggs finished with 89 yards on 24 carries. The Vols started slowly but they've settled on Clausen as the QB and the offense should be able to control this game against a Rebel squad that has big trouble with the run.
The fact that Tennessee is 0-4 ATS their last 4 times as a double-digit favorite, and are a loathsome 2-15 ATS in their last 17 chances as home favorites against .250 or better opposition keeps me away from backing either side in this contest. However, I forecast points-a-plenty as Ole Miss just does not have the talent at the skill positions to compete with the elite teams in the SEC. Against their entire schedule, they will always be facing a quarterback better than their own. Defensively, they are limited as well. Against Wyoming, they allowed 383 yards of offense, and that was against a team with a relatively weak running offense. Now they have to travel to play on of the best running offenses in the nation. To date, Ole Miss is allowing 163 rush yards per game against the likes of Memphis, Vanderbilt and Wyoming. This week against the most athletic and physical talent they have faced, they will be totally dominated. Look for the Tennessee’s offensive struggles to be corrected. So long as Ole Miss puts up a few score this game will fly way OVER the posted total.
Forecast: Ole Miss 14, Tennessee 35
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OLE MISS/TENNESSEE OVER 38.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* MISSOURI +15 ADDED PROBABLE UPGRADE
1* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +15.5
1* OLE MISS/TENNESSE OVER 38.5
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TEXAS (3 - 0) at MISSOURI (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:00 PM
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Both teams have had some time off to prepare for this rivalry game, won 28-20 a year ago by Texas. Texas (3-0 SU, ATS) has been dominant, winning games by an average score of 45-12 The Longhorns defeated Rice two weeks ago 51-10 when freshman Jamaal Charles ran for 189 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries in his first career start. After setting a UT freshman debut record with 135 yards in the season opener, Charles played a major role coming off the bench in Texas' win at Ohio State. He got his first start against Rice in place of the banged up Selvin Young, who has struggled to stay healthy in his return from a broken ankle last season. After passing for 270 yards and two scores against Ohio State, Vince Young was 8-for-14 for 101 yards with one interception, no touchdowns and 77 yards rushing. Missouri (2-1 SU, ATS) comes off a 52-21 rout of Troy State. Brad Smith once a Heisman hopeful was 23-of-33 for 183 yards and Tony Temple (80), Smith (79) and Woods (59) combined for 218 yards rushing on 32 carries.
I do not think there is any question that Texas is the better team in this match-up so I will say that from the start. With a whooping 85% of the betting public on Texas this week, this is not a game for the week at heart. So why or why are we going to be in the 15% that Lay our bets with confidence? Like some of the other games on my card there are lots of trends and a huge motivational factors in play for this contest. Both teams are coming off a bye week and I’m certain that the home underdog Tigers will pull out all the stops. Think about for a minute the Missouri QB Brad Smith who was once a Heisman hopeful and all of the talk that surrounded him involved his potential as a future top NFL QB. But for one-and-a-half seasons, while hearing about his own stock dropping, he has seen the star of Longhorns’ QB Vince Young rise and shine above him. Smith has come up big in big games before and I expect nothing short of a brilliant performance by him in this contest. Also consider that Smith is the best, most productive and most experienced player at the quarterback position that the Texas defense has faced this season.
The trend is also very much our friend this week as well. Consider that Missouri is 6-1 ATS its last 7 as an underdog. Home dogs who scored 40 or more and won the previous week (Missouri) have been a 60% play in college football for the last quarter century. Marc Lawrence also tells us that game four home dogs with a week of rest are 15-4 to the number in conference play and that Texas is a sorry 3-15 ATS as a favorite in its last 18 conference lid lifters. Moreover, road teams laying –7.5 points or more off bye weeks are 50-89 ATS (36%) over the last decade. Since 1980, Game 4 home teams off a win with rest are 50-30 ATS on the blind. When taking on a conference foe in this desired spot, they improve to 35-19 ATS. Missouri, with the right blend of emotion and heady play, can pull the upset, especially with Oklahoma lurking on deck for the Longhorns.
Projected Score: Texas 28, Missouri 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MISSOURI +15
MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 3) at VANDERBILT (4 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 7:00 PM
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Vanderbilt has spent the 2005 season on a high, while Middle Tennessee has been very low, scoring only seven points in each of its first three games. A correction toward the norm for both is in order here. Last week the “Smart Kids” beat Richmond 37-13 and are atop the Eastern Division of the SEC with a perfect record of 4-0 (2-0 in league play). Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler again led the way. He completed 70 percent of his passes on 28 of 40 for 262 yards. Eric Davis, the Souheastern Conference’s active leader in receiving yards, again proved to be a solid target, producing a big game. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has been known for a wide-open passing attack in recent years. But not so much this season as Junior QB Clint Marks (2 TDs, 3 INTs) has been woeful, scoring only 7 points in each of its three losses. MTS had a bye last week, giving them time to figure out what ails an offense that does feature an extremely accurate QB in Clint Marks, who completed 70.4 percent of his throws in 2004 and is hitting 66.7 percent in 2005. Certainly the Blue Raiders’ D hasn’t been the problem, allowing only 19 points a game, which should be enough to get us a ATS win so long as they are able to put up some points. Middle Tennessee State, less than an hour southeast of Nashville, views Vanderbilt as one of its biggest rivals and they have had the week off to prepare for this game. Combine that with the fact that LSU visits Nashville next week, and the focus this week for a Sun Belt opponent probably won’t be what it should. The difference in raw talent isn’t as pronounced as this spread might indicate, so there is an opportunity for MTS to compete here and get its season back on track. Take the points and hope that this traditionally strong offense can put some points up and get back on track..
Forecast: Vanderbilt 28, Mid Tenn St 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +15.5
MISSISSIPPI (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:30 PM
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With the notable exceptions of Deuce McAllister and Eli Manning and several solid offensive linemen, Ole Miss has just not recruited very well recently, and unfortunately they came out as losers again last week losing to Wyoming 24-14, making me lose one of my opinion selections. The Cowboys rolled up 383 yards of total offense and forced Ole Miss into four turnovers, spoiling Mississippi coach Ed Orgeron's home debut. Simply put, the Rebels have struggled mightily offensively. Backup QB Robert Lane was ineffective in replacing injured starter Michael Spurlock, who broke the middle finger on his left hand in the previous week's loss to Vanderbilt. Spurlock played in the second half, but was unable to rally the Rebels past the Cowboys. Spurlock finished 5-of-14 for 83 yards and a touchdown. Lane was 7-of-15 for 37 yards and turned the ball over on three consecutive series. HC Orgeron said senior QB Micheal Spurlock will start against the Vols if he's healthy enough to play. Defensively, the Rebels clearly missed junior LB Patrick Willis, who is out indefinitely with numerous injuries. Ole Miss tackled poorly as Wynel Seldon, the Cowboys' freshman tailback, rushed for 124 yards on 21 carries. They better not tackle poorly here. Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) overcame a three touchdown deficit and RB Gerald Riggs Jr. pushed into the end zone from a yard out in overtime to give Tennessee a wild 30-27 win Monday in LSU's long-awaited, hurricane-delayed home opener. QB Rick Clausen was the hero, finishing 21-for-32 for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and a TD run and appeared to settle the 10th-ranked Vols' quarterback controversy. Riggs finished with 89 yards on 24 carries. The Vols started slowly but they've settled on Clausen as the QB and the offense should be able to control this game against a Rebel squad that has big trouble with the run.
The fact that Tennessee is 0-4 ATS their last 4 times as a double-digit favorite, and are a loathsome 2-15 ATS in their last 17 chances as home favorites against .250 or better opposition keeps me away from backing either side in this contest. However, I forecast points-a-plenty as Ole Miss just does not have the talent at the skill positions to compete with the elite teams in the SEC. Against their entire schedule, they will always be facing a quarterback better than their own. Defensively, they are limited as well. Against Wyoming, they allowed 383 yards of offense, and that was against a team with a relatively weak running offense. Now they have to travel to play on of the best running offenses in the nation. To date, Ole Miss is allowing 163 rush yards per game against the likes of Memphis, Vanderbilt and Wyoming. This week against the most athletic and physical talent they have faced, they will be totally dominated. Look for the Tennessee’s offensive struggles to be corrected. So long as Ole Miss puts up a few score this game will fly way OVER the posted total.
Forecast: Ole Miss 14, Tennessee 35
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OLE MISS/TENNESSEE OVER 38.5
It's always noon somewhere! 
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