Trends and Indexes Thursday

[crswir]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
National League
Milwaukee* (Glover) 14.73 (1) Cincinnati (Milton) 13.98
Total Runs: 10 1/2
New York Mets* (Glavine) 15.74 (1) Colorado (Woo Kim) 14.82
Total Runs: 8 1/2
Houston* (Rodriguez) 15.93 (1 1/2) Chicago Cubs (Rusch) 14.55
Total Runs: 9 1/2
San Francisco (Lowry) 14.77 (1/2) San Diego* (Lawrence) 14.25
Total Runs: 9
L.A. Dodgers* (Perez) 15.21 (1/2) Arizona (Nippert) 14.77
Total Runs: 9
American League
Chicago White Sox (Garcia) 14.87 (1 1/2) Detroit* (Grilli) 13.61
Total Runs: 7 1/2
Oakland* (Zito) 14.38 (1/2) L.A. Angels (Colon) 14.10
Total Runs: 7 1/2
Texas (Rogers) 15.83 (3) Seattle* (Franklin) 13.04
Total Runs: 9 1/2
New York Yankees (Small) 15.54 (2) Baltimore* (Bedard) 13.56
Total Runs: 9 1/2
Cleveland* (Sabathia) 16.19 (1 1/2) Tampa Bay (Fossum) 14.84
Total Runs: 8
Toronto (Downs) 15.08 (1/2) Boston* (Clement) 14.85
Total Runs: 10 1/2
Kansas City (Wood) 13.82 (1/2) Minnesota* (Mays) 13.52
Total Runs: 9 1/2

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
National League
Chicago Cubs* (Prior) 14.32 (1/2) Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.83
Total Runs: 8
Atlanta* (Davies) 14.87 (1) Colorado (Francis) 14.14
Total Runs: 9 1/2
New York Mets (Trachsel) 15.32 (1) Philadelphia* (Padilla) 14.71
Total Runs: 10
Washington (Loaiza) 14.58 (2) Florida* (Moehler) 12.73
Total Runs: 8 1/2
Milwaukee* (Capuano) 14.52 (1) Cincinnati (Harang) 13.74
Total Runs: 9 1/2
Houston (Backe) 14.98 (1/2) St. Louis* (Carpenter) 14.72
Total Runs: 9
San Diego* (Astacio) 15.18 (1/2) San Francisco (Schmidt) 14.75
Total Runs: 8
Arizona (Nippert) 14.76 (1) L.A. Dodgers* (Houlton) 14.02
Total Runs: 9 1/2
American League
Chicago White Sox (Contreras) 14.85 (1) Detroit* (Douglass) 13.82
Total Runs: 8 1/2
New York Yankees (Chacon) 15.83 (3) Baltimore* (Cabrera) 13.01
Total Runs: 9
Cleveland* (Lee) 17.27 (3) Tampa Bay (McClung) 14.49
Total Runs: 10
Boston* (Arroyo) 15.74 (1 1/2) Toronto (Lilly) 14.46
Total Runs: 10
Minnesota* (Lohse) 14.47 (1) Kansas City (Lima) 13.70
Total Runs: 10 1/2
L.A. Angels (Byrd) 15.64 (1 1/2) Oakland* (Haren) 14.22
Total Runs: 8
Texas (Young) 15.61 (2 1/2) Seattle* (Pineiro) 13.04
Total Runs: 9

* Denotes Home Team

Note: In reading the daily pairings, the top-rated
team and starting pitcher are listed first followed
by the lower-rated team and starting pitcher with
the run differential listed in parenthesis.

[crswir]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Colorado State* 89.8 (5) Air Force 85.0
Total Points: 63
Other Major Games:
Samford* 49.3 (1) SE Missouri State 48.8

[crswir]

Thursday, September 29th

Air Force at Colorado State, 7:30 EST ESPN
Air Force - 16-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
Colorado State - 4-19 ATS off BB non-conference games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[crswir]

Thursday, September 29th

National League:

Cincinnati at Milwaukee, 2:05 EST
Eric Milton (L) vs. Gary Glover (R)
Milton - 16-5 TSR on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997
Glover - Milwaukee 6-25 with a bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games

Colorado at NY Mets, 7:10 EST
Sun Woo Kim (R) vs. Tom Glavine (L)
Kim - 5-0 TSR after walking 1 hitter or less in each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons
Glavine - 1-11 TSR on Thursday over the last 3 seasons

Chicago Cubs at Houston, 8:05 EST
Glendon Rusch (L) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Rusch - Cubs 5-15 after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span
Rodriguez - Houston 20-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season

San Francisco at San Diego, 10:05 EST
Noah Lowry (L) vs. Brian Lawrence (R)
Lowry - NL
Lawrence - NL

Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 EST
Dustin Nippert (R) vs. Odalis Perez (L)
Nippert - NL
Perez - NL


American League:

Chicago White Sox at Detroit, 1:05 EST
Freddy Garcia (R) vs. Jason Grilli (R)
Garcia - White Sox 22-8 after a win by 4 runs or more this season
Grilli - Detroit 17-40 after 5+ home games over the last 2 seasons

Anaheim at Oakland, 3:35 EST
Bartolo Colon (R) vs. Barry Zito (L)
Colon - 8-0 TSR in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons
Zito - Oakland 14-3 Under vs. Anaheim this season

Texas at Seattle, 6:05 EST
Kenny Rogers (L) vs. Ryan Franklin (R)
Rogers - 33-15 TSR after a Texas win over the last 2 seasons
Franklin - 2-10 TSR with 8.02 ERA and 1.701 WHIP vs. Texas

NY Yankees at Baltimore, 7:05 EST
Aaron Small (R) vs. Erik Bedard (L)
Small - 4-0 TSR with 2.93 ERA and 1.156 WHIP on the road this season
Bedard - 1-12 TSR in the second half of the season

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 7:05 EST
Casey Fossum (L) vs. CC Sabathia (L)
Fossum - Tampa Bay 5-0 at Cleveland this season
Sabathia - Cleveland 0-6 in home games with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games

Toronto at Boston, 7:05 EST
Scott Downs (L) vs. Matt Clement (R)
Downs - Toronto 13-32 off a win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons
Clement - Boston 29-2 as a home favorite of -250 to -330 over the last 3 seasons

Kansas City at Minnesota, 8:10 EST
Mike Wood (R) vs. Joe Mays (R)
Wood - Kansas CIty 6-27 on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons
Mays - 5-13 TSR in home night games over the last 3 seasons

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Spark]

Thursday's Game
Mountain West takes stage, as home side won four of last five series meetings between Air Force, Colorado State. Flyboys lost last two visits to this site, 28-21/30-20; they're 13-7 in last 20 as a road underdog, 2-0 as dog this season, but they lost last two in row, by total of four points, giving up 67 points. Air Force won this game last year, 47-17, running ball for 373 yards. Air Force is 14-5 vs spread the week before playing Navy.

Colorado State is 0-8-1 vs spread in league openers the last nine years. Favorites are 4-10-1 vs spread in this in-state rivalry, as Rams are 7-4-1 vs spread in last dozen series games. Hard to tell what Rams are about, since they squashed Nevada after they got drilled by Minnesota- State lost tough opener to Colorado, so this game will go long way to defining their season.

Tough game to call, but Air force lost two nailbiters in row, has two extra days to prepare, and they've been sharp game before playing Navy. Mountain West is wide open l;eague that favors the underdog, probably. Mountain West home favorites are 1-4 vs the spread so far this season.

[Spark]

Hot pitchers
-- Glover is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
-- Francis is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts. Glavine has 2.00 RA in his last nine starts.
-- Cubs won last four games started by Rusch.
-- Giants are 8-2 in last ten Lowry starts.

-- Grilli won his first '05 start, allowing one run in seven IP, in 7-1 win over Mariners.
-- Texas scored 32 runs in winning last five Rogers starts.
-- Bronx scored 36 runs in winning last four Small starts.
-- Toronto is 8-2 in last ten Downs starts.
-- Sabathia is 3-1, 1.78 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Milton has 14.40 RA in his last three road starts.
-- Rodriguez is 1-3, 4.56 in his last four starts.
-- Lawrence is 0-3, 8.06 in his last six starts.
-- Nippert has 7.45 RA in his first two '05 starts. Perez is 1-3, 6.07 in his last five starts.

-- White Sox are 2-6 in Garcia's last eight starts.
-- Colon is 1-2, 7.94 in his last three starts. Zito has 6.52 RA in his last five starts.
-- Franklin is 1-4, 6.53 in his last nine starts.
-- Orioles are 1-12 in Bedard's last thirteen starts.
-- Fossum has 6.08 RA in his last six starts.
-- Clement is 0-3, 7.20 in his last four starts.
-- Wood is 1-3, 5.24 in his last four starts. Mays is 1-6, 8.42 in his last ten starts.

Totals .
-- Over is 3-1 in last four Cincinnati road games.
-- Under is 5-1 in last six Francis starts.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Rusch starts, 6-0 in last six starts by Rodriguez. .
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven San Diego games.
-- Over is 10-5 in last fifteen Arizona road games.

-- Over is 5-1 in Garcia's last six starts.
-- Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Anaheim road games.
-- Over is 6-3 in last nine Franklin starts.
-- Small's last three starts all went over the total.
-- Over is 8-1 in last nine Tampa Bay games.
-- Over is 11-4 in last fifteen Clement starts.
-- Wood's last three starts all went over total.

Hot teams
-- Brewers are 9-4 in their last thirteen home games.
-- Mets won eight of their last ten games. Rockies won six of their last eight road games.
-- Astros won eleven of their last fourteen games. Cubs are 9-4 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Giants are 8-4 in last twelve games.
-- Arizona won six of their last seven games.


-- Tigers won four of their last five games.
-- Angels won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Bronx is 14-3 in its last seventeen games.
-- Tampa Bay is 7-3 in last ten road games.
-- Royals are 6-5 in their last eleven games.


Cold Teams
-- Reds are 4-11 in their last fifteen road games.
-- Padres lost four of their last seven games, but they're NL West champs, at 79-79. .

-- Indians lost their last three games to Royals, D-Rays; they're 0-5 at home vs Tampa Bay this season.
-- Toronto is 7-10 in its last seventeen games Red Sox are 5-6 in their last eleven home games.
-- Orioles are 2-12 in their last fourteen games.
-- White Sox are 5-8 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Twins are 8-14 in their last twenty-two games.
-- A's are 7-14 in their last twenty-one home games.
-- Rangers are 4-5 in their last nine road games.

[Shiprec]

Thanks Gentlemen.
PEACE