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Tuesday NCAA Football - 9/27
A nice 2-0 sweep last night! This is my play for Tuesday....
NCAA Football
5 STAR: Toledo (+14)(-$120) OVER FRESNO STATE
Line from Pinnacle
Risking $600 to win $500
A lot of value in this line with Toledo. This game opened at Fresno State -7 ½, but when word got out that Toledo starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is suffering from undisclosed injuries and will be a game time decision the line began to grow. I would love to see Gradkowski under center for Toledo, since he is the Rocket's career leader in completions and passing yardage but I still like Toledo to get it done if he is out and they have to go with redshirt freshman Clint Cochran who has played the mop-up role in all three of Toledo’s games, completing 14 of 16 passes for 92 yards. The Rockets are going to run the ball. Toledo is ranked #19 in the country in rushing offense averaging 220 yards per game on the ground and they may have another weapon for this game. Running back Scooter McDougle should be available for the Rockets tonight. The junior tailback rushed for 620 yards on 146 attempts last year with 7 touchdowns and was considered the driving force behind the team’s MAC Championship. A knee injury he suffered in Toledo’s final game of 2004 kept him out of the first three games this season, but the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that he’s ready to play against the Bulldogs tonight. Fresno State has not been great a stopping the run this season and I don't know if the Bulldogs will be up to play Toledo tonight. Fresno State is just two games into their schedule, but after last Saturday’s 37-34 loss to Oregon as +2 ½ point dog, the Bulldogs already feel like their season is over. They hoped to run the table and bust into the BCS just as Utah did last season. Will the Bulldogs bounce back? History suggests that they might not. After starting the 2004 season at 3-0, then # 17 Fresno State had another potential bowl run stopped when it dropped a 28-21 decision to unranked Louisiana Tech in Week 6 as 15 point favorites. The Bulldogs went on to lose their next two games and failed to cover the spread in both. I know Toledo will be sky high for this one. This is one of only a couple of games that stand in the way of a Toledo perfect season. Toledo comes into this game rolling at 3-0 with all of their wins by 25 or more points, and they are 8-0 against the spread after a win by 21 or more points the last three seasons. You have to love a double digit dog that out rushes their opponent by almost 100 yards a game. Take the points!
2005/2006 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+4.00 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 5-3 (+5.10 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 2-1 (+1.80 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+0.80 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 13-8 (+11.70 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $1170
NCAA Football
5 STAR: Toledo (+14)(-$120) OVER FRESNO STATE
Line from Pinnacle
Risking $600 to win $500
A lot of value in this line with Toledo. This game opened at Fresno State -7 ½, but when word got out that Toledo starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is suffering from undisclosed injuries and will be a game time decision the line began to grow. I would love to see Gradkowski under center for Toledo, since he is the Rocket's career leader in completions and passing yardage but I still like Toledo to get it done if he is out and they have to go with redshirt freshman Clint Cochran who has played the mop-up role in all three of Toledo’s games, completing 14 of 16 passes for 92 yards. The Rockets are going to run the ball. Toledo is ranked #19 in the country in rushing offense averaging 220 yards per game on the ground and they may have another weapon for this game. Running back Scooter McDougle should be available for the Rockets tonight. The junior tailback rushed for 620 yards on 146 attempts last year with 7 touchdowns and was considered the driving force behind the team’s MAC Championship. A knee injury he suffered in Toledo’s final game of 2004 kept him out of the first three games this season, but the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that he’s ready to play against the Bulldogs tonight. Fresno State has not been great a stopping the run this season and I don't know if the Bulldogs will be up to play Toledo tonight. Fresno State is just two games into their schedule, but after last Saturday’s 37-34 loss to Oregon as +2 ½ point dog, the Bulldogs already feel like their season is over. They hoped to run the table and bust into the BCS just as Utah did last season. Will the Bulldogs bounce back? History suggests that they might not. After starting the 2004 season at 3-0, then # 17 Fresno State had another potential bowl run stopped when it dropped a 28-21 decision to unranked Louisiana Tech in Week 6 as 15 point favorites. The Bulldogs went on to lose their next two games and failed to cover the spread in both. I know Toledo will be sky high for this one. This is one of only a couple of games that stand in the way of a Toledo perfect season. Toledo comes into this game rolling at 3-0 with all of their wins by 25 or more points, and they are 8-0 against the spread after a win by 21 or more points the last three seasons. You have to love a double digit dog that out rushes their opponent by almost 100 yards a game. Take the points!
2005/2006 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+4.00 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 5-3 (+5.10 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 2-1 (+1.80 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+0.80 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 13-8 (+11.70 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $1170
It's always noon somewhere! 
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