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BOOOOM VERY NICE WEEKEND HITTING THE TOP PLAY ON OREGON! I HAVE NOW WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 16 WEEKS FROM CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* OREGON +21.5 UPGRADED
2* NEW MEXICO +3 ADDED
2* OREGON STATE +7.5 UPGRADED
2* GEORGIA TECH +11.5
Opinions: OLE MISS -2, COLORADO STATE -18, GEORGIA TECH +390
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USC (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Ahhh yes after hitting the top play on the Ducks last week I'm going right back to them this week. Amazingly, after last week, I have now won 14 out of the 16 bets I have placed on this team including last years GOY. As you will recall from last week writeup..."I feel like a crack addict every time I go to pull the trigger on this Ducks team. For whatever reason I always see a significant line value in their games and I cannot stop betting on this team." Well look again at the line value in this game. The line opened at USC -20 and now has gone up to -21.5.
I know the there is talk that USC may be the most dominant team in the modern history of college football. Quarterback Matt Leinhart, receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush and Dominique Byrd are all NFL-caliber players. Indeed, there are probably no fewer than 15 NFL-caliber players in the starting lineup. I know this! I also know that they are averaging 66.5 points per game. And who doesn’t know that they scored four touchdowns and netted 246 yards in a 90 second stretch in the first quarter against a reputable SEC team. I didn’t want to know, but unfortunately I found out, that USC is 15-0 SU, 10-5 ATS its last 15 games! So if I know all of this why oh why am I putting the Ducks in my pond this weekend?
Like USC, Oregon also happens to be undefeated. Overall, Oregon is 38-8 SU at home since 1998 and 17-6 to the line in its last 23 tries as an underdog, including a perfect 5-0 vs the spread when getting six or more points. Did you know that the Ducks have beaten Southern Cal four of the last five times they've met? How about the fact that when playing at home in the Duck Pond they are an incredible (53-6 SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more points. Moreover, despite posting a perfect season in 2004, the Trojans were just 1-3 ATS on the conference road. How about this wacky trend from Mark Lawrence...telling us to play against last years national champion (USC) in game 9 or less as a road favorite against a foe tat was home their last game if the host has won more then half of their previous games (Oregon). Perhaps Mr. Lawrence is smoking to much shit lately considering I had to read it like 5 times to understand it, but it is 15-1 angle (94%) since 1980. Joking aside, I set this line at -17 so from my perspective I’m getting a ton of value, and I really do think that the Ducks have the personnel to get this done.
Update: USC will be thin on defense, with starting CB Terrell Thomas (knee; season) and starting OLB Dallas Sartz (dislocated shoulder; probably out 3 weeks) both out. Both injuries occur at positions that suffered previous losses. CB Terrell Thomas had been elevated to the starting lineup when starter Eric Wright left the team in June amid criminal suspicions. Meanwhile, one of the new backup CBs, true frosh Kevin Thomas will miss 4-6 weeks due to mononucleosis, so USC is down three CBs since spring. Former hird-teamer John Walker, a fifth-year sr., will start this week. The next CB in line this week is a true frosh who saw his first action last week. Speed WR Steve Smith, who was an outstanding DB in high school, has gone to coaches this week and volunteered to play some defense as well as offense, but has been turned down by the coaches, who instead have begun giving work on defense to backup sr. WR William Buchanon, who prefers offense but who has played two years mostly as a backup CB. The backup for LB Sartz, blue-chip true frosh Brian Cushing, previously suffered a shoulder injury. The Trojan defense has already suffered a couple of early hits at other positions when starting DT Manuel Wright left the team early for the NFL supplemental draft due to academic problems and RS frosh DE Jeff Schweiger expected to split time TY) suffered a broken foot in camp.
Forecast: USC 34, Oregon 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OREGON +21.5
NEW MEXICO (3 - 0) at UTEP (2 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 9:00 PM
vs
Analysis
There hasn’t been many occasions when this border war meant as much as this game does. New Mexico dominated this series in the early 80’s but the last 14 games have been split right down the middle. In any event this contest is a battle of unbeatens. New Mexico (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is on a roll, beating UNLV, smoking Missouri (45-35) and New Mexico State (38-21). After holding off a late charge by UNLV in a 24-22 win, UNM traveled to Mizzou where they whipped the Tigers, 45-35, as a double-digit underdog! WR Hank Baslett grabbed all 3 scoring strikes from QB Kole McKamey, and finished with 10 receptions for 209 yards. RB DonTrell Moore has 253 yards (4.2 ypc) and the Lobos have a terrific, balanced offense this season. Moore, who has rushed for 3,928 yards at UNM, is gradually returning to form after missing all of spring ball while recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. UTEP (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is averaging 39 points behind QB Jordan Palmer and RB Tyler Ebell. UTEP Coach Mike Price said that if his team has any advantage at all, it's the fact that another raucous crowd is expected at the Sun Bowl.
I do not think there is any question that this will in all likihood be an offensive shootout this week. But when an already small UTEP defensive front just had one key recent absentee player (Zach Ward) return to practice on Tuesday (in non-contact capacity) and will be missing another, (Joe Ward), and another (Ricky Van) is questionable, it’s a yellow flag. Now send in the Lobos offensive line, which averages massive 320 pounds, and the yellow flag becomes red! If UTEP’s defense isn’t getting turnovers, then UTEP’s defense is giving up lots of points. They can’t hurry the passer unless they blitz, which would leave an All-American wide receiver Hank Baskett open. They can’t load up to stop Dontrell Moore, because the New Mexico line can push them back anyway, and Baskett would be left in single-coverage. They can’t concede yards to Moore, because they’ll never see the football themselves. Whatever poison UTEP picks, New Mexico will apply it. Then you have UTEP QB Jordan Palmer attempting to toss into a 3-3-5 defense that can pick him like cotton. All you need to know is that New Mexico has the better defense and the better running game. That’s enough.
Projected Score: UTEP 24, New Mexico 38
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW MEXICO +3
ARIZONA ST (2 - 1) at OREGON ST (2 - 1)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 10:00 PM
vs
Analysis
Arizona State (2-1 SU, ATS) quickly put their disheartening 31-35 loss to LSU behind then and demolished Northwestern 52-21 Saturday as Sam Keller passed for four touchdowns and freshman Keegan Herring ran for 197 yards and scored twice. Keller was 20-of-31 for 409 yards and has now thrown for 1,448 yards and 15 TDs in his four career starts. In contrast, Oregon State ran into a buzz-saw last week as Louisville sawed a 63-27 win. Four fumbles, two interceptions and seven tackles for loss, including three sacks did in the previously unbeaten Beavers. QB Matt Moore finished 25-for-48 for 317 yards for OSU (2-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), which lost to a ranked opponent on the road for the seventh straight time. “We played good enough to win in the first quarter,” said Oregon State linebacker Trent Bray. “We just played awful after that.”
Anyone who saw Oregon State get dismembered by Louisville probably won’t give the Beavers a shot here. But this is a great spot for OSU to retrieve its season. Those disparate results last week have inflated this line by at least a field goal giving us great value with a solid home team. ASU's pass defense has been dissected by both LSU and Northwestern and, if there's one thing the Beavers can do it's throw the football. And listen up guys, talent aside, it just doesn't seem to matter who's good and who isn't in this series, the home team usually gets the money. Oregon State is a one-dimensional team for sure, and I know Arizona State is the better team here! But they are playing in a stadium that is feared by all members of the Pac Ten and with good reason as evidenced by the Beavers 21-7 spread record in home conference games the past seven years. Moreover, the home team has covered the last seven meetings between the teams and ASU is just 4-12 against the spread the last four seasons in Pac-10 road games. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven straight wins. OSU 13-3 ATS here in conference play with revenge. With look ahead USC on deck for Sun Devils cements it.
Forecast: Arizona St 31, Oregon St 38
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OREGON STATE +7.5
GEORGIA TECH (3 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 3:30 PM
vs
Analysis
A key ACC clash: Both teams are sitting atop the ACC Coastal division, with Georgia Tech at 1-0, Virginia Tech 2-0. Georgia Tech (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and only the second time in the past 15 years. This is not an explosive offense: They average 26 points and 142 yards rushing. They win with defense, allowing 16 points and 312 total yards per game. Last season they allowed just 106 rush yards per game and 300 total yards each contest, led by two-time all-ACC defensive end Eric Henderson. Georgia Tech stayed unbeaten last week, even with star QB Reggie Ball in the hospital. Ball was taken to Emory Hospital Saturday morning with a yet-to-be-diagnosed illness. Redshirt freshman QB Taylor Bennett played Okay (11-of-30, 142 yards) and tailback Tashard Choice scored the first two TDs as the No. 16 Yellow Jackets defeated Connecticut 28-13. Tech will use Choice and senior RB P.J. Daniels to test the rock-solid Virginia Tech 'D'. Georgia Tech is 1-0 SU/ATS on the road this season, upsetting Auburn 23-14 and 5-1 ATS its last 6 road games. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (3-0 SU/ATS) is off two straight 45-0 shutouts over Ohio and Duke. They win with tough defense, too, as 6 starters return to a defense that allowed 13 points, 267 total yards per game in 2004! The ‘D’ is allowing 5.3 points and 220 total yards this season (2-1 “under” the total). Junior QB Marcus Vick Offense leads a balanced offense, averaging 174 yards rushing, 182 passing per game.
Georgia Tech has impressed me tremendously this year, winning on the road at Auburn and defeating North Carolina at home in its first two games. I think they have another shot at a road victory against this overrated Virginia Tech team. Amazingly to me the Hokies are ranked No.4 in the nation, which I think is a little hokey itself as they simply have not played “anybody.” They are one of those teams that play a cupcake schedule and look dominate in easily defeating their poor opponents. The only quality opponet they played was NC state and they narrowly escaped that 20-16. Well guys Georgia Tech is A LOT better then NC State...and were getting 11.5 points! Marcus Vick had a great game last week in the Hokies' 45-0 victory against Ohio, but again that was Ohio, and now he has to go up against this GT defense which will be the best he has faced this season. Vick is they type of quarterback you want when the Hokies are laying points against the weak folks (Ohio and Duke) but not against power conference opponents who match up very well against his VT buddies.
Forecast: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON GEORGIA TECH +11.5
OPINION SELECTION ON GEORGIAN TECH +390
NEVADA (1 - 1) at COLORADO ST (0 - 2)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 9:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Oh boy, I would not want to be the Wolfpack this weekend coming off that very emotional and intense state rivalry game with UNLV!Unfortunately for them, the Wolfpack will find an enraged flock of Rams still angry about last season’s performance and incensed by this year’s 0-2 start. Last week, the Pack caught UNLV at the right time as the Rebels were playing their third game in 13 days! UNLV was flat and the Wolfpack took advantage for a 22-14 win. Nevada was sky-high for that one, yet the new offense still sputtered more often than it fired. QB Jeff Rowe was efficient, but he'll think he's facing Washington State again, in Green & Gold this week. Meanwhile, Colorado State was in the perfect letdown situation last week. They were off a tough loss to in-state rival Colorado and had to travel to the Metrodome, where Glenn Mason's Gophers have become absolute bullies. The Rams have had an extra week to prepare and regroup. Don’t be at all surprised when we watch QB Holland putting up some big passing numbers and the running game should also find it easier sailing against this level of competition.
Nevada was 0- 5 both SU and ATS on the road last year, where they yielded an unsavory 38.5 PPG. Off a win that ended a five-year rivalry drought against a UNLV team in offensive transition, middling Nevada probably can’t sustain the good fortune against a desperate home side. And to pull the trigger on this selection, I’ll give you some additional ammo as this match-up fits into a very profitable angle. Teams playing their FIRST HOME GAME in Game 3 of the season tend to perform above the norm with the advantage of an extra week to prepare for the home opener. These teams are a solid 20-13 ATS since 1980. By putting them up against a foe that allows 12 or more points per game they improve to 18-8 ATS. The best situation occurs when that same foe is a .500 or better team, as our win-loss record improves to 15-5 ATS. Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) as it appears that 70% of the action on this game is on the CSU side. With the line going from -16.5 to -18 I still have to unfortunately keep this just an opinion selection. Nevertheless, Nevada will be overmatched and we will (hopefully) be over-joyed when Colorado State wins with ease.
Forecast: Colorado St 39, Nevada Reno 14
OPINION SELECTION ON COLORADO STATE -18
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* OREGON +21.5 UPGRADED
2* NEW MEXICO +3 ADDED
2* OREGON STATE +7.5 UPGRADED
2* GEORGIA TECH +11.5
Opinions: OLE MISS -2, COLORADO STATE -18, GEORGIA TECH +390
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USC (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
Ahhh yes after hitting the top play on the Ducks last week I'm going right back to them this week. Amazingly, after last week, I have now won 14 out of the 16 bets I have placed on this team including last years GOY. As you will recall from last week writeup..."I feel like a crack addict every time I go to pull the trigger on this Ducks team. For whatever reason I always see a significant line value in their games and I cannot stop betting on this team." Well look again at the line value in this game. The line opened at USC -20 and now has gone up to -21.5.
I know the there is talk that USC may be the most dominant team in the modern history of college football. Quarterback Matt Leinhart, receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush and Dominique Byrd are all NFL-caliber players. Indeed, there are probably no fewer than 15 NFL-caliber players in the starting lineup. I know this! I also know that they are averaging 66.5 points per game. And who doesn’t know that they scored four touchdowns and netted 246 yards in a 90 second stretch in the first quarter against a reputable SEC team. I didn’t want to know, but unfortunately I found out, that USC is 15-0 SU, 10-5 ATS its last 15 games! So if I know all of this why oh why am I putting the Ducks in my pond this weekend?
Like USC, Oregon also happens to be undefeated. Overall, Oregon is 38-8 SU at home since 1998 and 17-6 to the line in its last 23 tries as an underdog, including a perfect 5-0 vs the spread when getting six or more points. Did you know that the Ducks have beaten Southern Cal four of the last five times they've met? How about the fact that when playing at home in the Duck Pond they are an incredible (53-6 SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more points. Moreover, despite posting a perfect season in 2004, the Trojans were just 1-3 ATS on the conference road. How about this wacky trend from Mark Lawrence...telling us to play against last years national champion (USC) in game 9 or less as a road favorite against a foe tat was home their last game if the host has won more then half of their previous games (Oregon). Perhaps Mr. Lawrence is smoking to much shit lately considering I had to read it like 5 times to understand it, but it is 15-1 angle (94%) since 1980. Joking aside, I set this line at -17 so from my perspective I’m getting a ton of value, and I really do think that the Ducks have the personnel to get this done.
Update: USC will be thin on defense, with starting CB Terrell Thomas (knee; season) and starting OLB Dallas Sartz (dislocated shoulder; probably out 3 weeks) both out. Both injuries occur at positions that suffered previous losses. CB Terrell Thomas had been elevated to the starting lineup when starter Eric Wright left the team in June amid criminal suspicions. Meanwhile, one of the new backup CBs, true frosh Kevin Thomas will miss 4-6 weeks due to mononucleosis, so USC is down three CBs since spring. Former hird-teamer John Walker, a fifth-year sr., will start this week. The next CB in line this week is a true frosh who saw his first action last week. Speed WR Steve Smith, who was an outstanding DB in high school, has gone to coaches this week and volunteered to play some defense as well as offense, but has been turned down by the coaches, who instead have begun giving work on defense to backup sr. WR William Buchanon, who prefers offense but who has played two years mostly as a backup CB. The backup for LB Sartz, blue-chip true frosh Brian Cushing, previously suffered a shoulder injury. The Trojan defense has already suffered a couple of early hits at other positions when starting DT Manuel Wright left the team early for the NFL supplemental draft due to academic problems and RS frosh DE Jeff Schweiger expected to split time TY) suffered a broken foot in camp.
Forecast: USC 34, Oregon 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OREGON +21.5
NEW MEXICO (3 - 0) at UTEP (2 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 9:00 PM
vs Analysis
There hasn’t been many occasions when this border war meant as much as this game does. New Mexico dominated this series in the early 80’s but the last 14 games have been split right down the middle. In any event this contest is a battle of unbeatens. New Mexico (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is on a roll, beating UNLV, smoking Missouri (45-35) and New Mexico State (38-21). After holding off a late charge by UNLV in a 24-22 win, UNM traveled to Mizzou where they whipped the Tigers, 45-35, as a double-digit underdog! WR Hank Baslett grabbed all 3 scoring strikes from QB Kole McKamey, and finished with 10 receptions for 209 yards. RB DonTrell Moore has 253 yards (4.2 ypc) and the Lobos have a terrific, balanced offense this season. Moore, who has rushed for 3,928 yards at UNM, is gradually returning to form after missing all of spring ball while recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. UTEP (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) is averaging 39 points behind QB Jordan Palmer and RB Tyler Ebell. UTEP Coach Mike Price said that if his team has any advantage at all, it's the fact that another raucous crowd is expected at the Sun Bowl.
I do not think there is any question that this will in all likihood be an offensive shootout this week. But when an already small UTEP defensive front just had one key recent absentee player (Zach Ward) return to practice on Tuesday (in non-contact capacity) and will be missing another, (Joe Ward), and another (Ricky Van) is questionable, it’s a yellow flag. Now send in the Lobos offensive line, which averages massive 320 pounds, and the yellow flag becomes red! If UTEP’s defense isn’t getting turnovers, then UTEP’s defense is giving up lots of points. They can’t hurry the passer unless they blitz, which would leave an All-American wide receiver Hank Baskett open. They can’t load up to stop Dontrell Moore, because the New Mexico line can push them back anyway, and Baskett would be left in single-coverage. They can’t concede yards to Moore, because they’ll never see the football themselves. Whatever poison UTEP picks, New Mexico will apply it. Then you have UTEP QB Jordan Palmer attempting to toss into a 3-3-5 defense that can pick him like cotton. All you need to know is that New Mexico has the better defense and the better running game. That’s enough.
Projected Score: UTEP 24, New Mexico 38
PLAY 2* UNITS ON NEW MEXICO +3
ARIZONA ST (2 - 1) at OREGON ST (2 - 1)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 10:00 PM
vs Analysis
Arizona State (2-1 SU, ATS) quickly put their disheartening 31-35 loss to LSU behind then and demolished Northwestern 52-21 Saturday as Sam Keller passed for four touchdowns and freshman Keegan Herring ran for 197 yards and scored twice. Keller was 20-of-31 for 409 yards and has now thrown for 1,448 yards and 15 TDs in his four career starts. In contrast, Oregon State ran into a buzz-saw last week as Louisville sawed a 63-27 win. Four fumbles, two interceptions and seven tackles for loss, including three sacks did in the previously unbeaten Beavers. QB Matt Moore finished 25-for-48 for 317 yards for OSU (2-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), which lost to a ranked opponent on the road for the seventh straight time. “We played good enough to win in the first quarter,” said Oregon State linebacker Trent Bray. “We just played awful after that.”
Anyone who saw Oregon State get dismembered by Louisville probably won’t give the Beavers a shot here. But this is a great spot for OSU to retrieve its season. Those disparate results last week have inflated this line by at least a field goal giving us great value with a solid home team. ASU's pass defense has been dissected by both LSU and Northwestern and, if there's one thing the Beavers can do it's throw the football. And listen up guys, talent aside, it just doesn't seem to matter who's good and who isn't in this series, the home team usually gets the money. Oregon State is a one-dimensional team for sure, and I know Arizona State is the better team here! But they are playing in a stadium that is feared by all members of the Pac Ten and with good reason as evidenced by the Beavers 21-7 spread record in home conference games the past seven years. Moreover, the home team has covered the last seven meetings between the teams and ASU is just 4-12 against the spread the last four seasons in Pac-10 road games. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven straight wins. OSU 13-3 ATS here in conference play with revenge. With look ahead USC on deck for Sun Devils cements it.
Forecast: Arizona St 31, Oregon St 38
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OREGON STATE +7.5
GEORGIA TECH (3 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
A key ACC clash: Both teams are sitting atop the ACC Coastal division, with Georgia Tech at 1-0, Virginia Tech 2-0. Georgia Tech (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and only the second time in the past 15 years. This is not an explosive offense: They average 26 points and 142 yards rushing. They win with defense, allowing 16 points and 312 total yards per game. Last season they allowed just 106 rush yards per game and 300 total yards each contest, led by two-time all-ACC defensive end Eric Henderson. Georgia Tech stayed unbeaten last week, even with star QB Reggie Ball in the hospital. Ball was taken to Emory Hospital Saturday morning with a yet-to-be-diagnosed illness. Redshirt freshman QB Taylor Bennett played Okay (11-of-30, 142 yards) and tailback Tashard Choice scored the first two TDs as the No. 16 Yellow Jackets defeated Connecticut 28-13. Tech will use Choice and senior RB P.J. Daniels to test the rock-solid Virginia Tech 'D'. Georgia Tech is 1-0 SU/ATS on the road this season, upsetting Auburn 23-14 and 5-1 ATS its last 6 road games. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (3-0 SU/ATS) is off two straight 45-0 shutouts over Ohio and Duke. They win with tough defense, too, as 6 starters return to a defense that allowed 13 points, 267 total yards per game in 2004! The ‘D’ is allowing 5.3 points and 220 total yards this season (2-1 “under” the total). Junior QB Marcus Vick Offense leads a balanced offense, averaging 174 yards rushing, 182 passing per game.
Georgia Tech has impressed me tremendously this year, winning on the road at Auburn and defeating North Carolina at home in its first two games. I think they have another shot at a road victory against this overrated Virginia Tech team. Amazingly to me the Hokies are ranked No.4 in the nation, which I think is a little hokey itself as they simply have not played “anybody.” They are one of those teams that play a cupcake schedule and look dominate in easily defeating their poor opponents. The only quality opponet they played was NC state and they narrowly escaped that 20-16. Well guys Georgia Tech is A LOT better then NC State...and were getting 11.5 points! Marcus Vick had a great game last week in the Hokies' 45-0 victory against Ohio, but again that was Ohio, and now he has to go up against this GT defense which will be the best he has faced this season. Vick is they type of quarterback you want when the Hokies are laying points against the weak folks (Ohio and Duke) but not against power conference opponents who match up very well against his VT buddies.
Forecast: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON GEORGIA TECH +11.5
OPINION SELECTION ON GEORGIAN TECH +390
NEVADA (1 - 1) at COLORADO ST (0 - 2)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 9:00 PM
vs Analysis
Oh boy, I would not want to be the Wolfpack this weekend coming off that very emotional and intense state rivalry game with UNLV!Unfortunately for them, the Wolfpack will find an enraged flock of Rams still angry about last season’s performance and incensed by this year’s 0-2 start. Last week, the Pack caught UNLV at the right time as the Rebels were playing their third game in 13 days! UNLV was flat and the Wolfpack took advantage for a 22-14 win. Nevada was sky-high for that one, yet the new offense still sputtered more often than it fired. QB Jeff Rowe was efficient, but he'll think he's facing Washington State again, in Green & Gold this week. Meanwhile, Colorado State was in the perfect letdown situation last week. They were off a tough loss to in-state rival Colorado and had to travel to the Metrodome, where Glenn Mason's Gophers have become absolute bullies. The Rams have had an extra week to prepare and regroup. Don’t be at all surprised when we watch QB Holland putting up some big passing numbers and the running game should also find it easier sailing against this level of competition.
Nevada was 0- 5 both SU and ATS on the road last year, where they yielded an unsavory 38.5 PPG. Off a win that ended a five-year rivalry drought against a UNLV team in offensive transition, middling Nevada probably can’t sustain the good fortune against a desperate home side. And to pull the trigger on this selection, I’ll give you some additional ammo as this match-up fits into a very profitable angle. Teams playing their FIRST HOME GAME in Game 3 of the season tend to perform above the norm with the advantage of an extra week to prepare for the home opener. These teams are a solid 20-13 ATS since 1980. By putting them up against a foe that allows 12 or more points per game they improve to 18-8 ATS. The best situation occurs when that same foe is a .500 or better team, as our win-loss record improves to 15-5 ATS. Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) as it appears that 70% of the action on this game is on the CSU side. With the line going from -16.5 to -18 I still have to unfortunately keep this just an opinion selection. Nevertheless, Nevada will be overmatched and we will (hopefully) be over-joyed when Colorado State wins with ease.
Forecast: Colorado St 39, Nevada Reno 14
OPINION SELECTION ON COLORADO STATE -18
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