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BOOOOM ANOTHER HUGE DAY IN THE NFL GOING A PROFITABLE 3-1, AND THAT FOLLOWING LAST WEEKENDS 4-1 PERFORMANCE. LAST WEEKS SMALL DEVIATION ASIDE, I HAVE NOW WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 16 WEEKS FROM CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON LAST IN FOOTBALL! IM POSTING AN EARLY PLAY, JUMP ON THIS NOW, THE LINE WILL GO UP. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LINE VALUE IN THIS GAME DUE TO THE TENNESSE'S UPSET OVER THE RAVEN'S THIS PAST WEEKEND. I SIMPLY DO NOT THINK THE RAMS WILL HAVE ANY PROBLEM WHATSOEVER MOVING THE BALL DOWNFIELD ON THE TITANS SECONDARY. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET ABOUT 1/2 OF WHAT I NORMALLY BET THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS OF THE SEASON. I WILL ONLY BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $100/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* ST. LOUIS -6 Probable Updgrade
1* BUFFALO -2.5 ADDED
1* GREEN BAY +4 ADDED
1* TAMPA BAY/GREEN BAY OVER 37.5 ADDED
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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1)
Week 3 Sunday, 9/25/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
The St. Louis Rams are very happy to be back in the friendly confines of their dome after a humiliating loss in San Francisco to the 49ers in Week 1 and a very close victory against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. Both teams come into this match-up with identical 1-1 records following opening week disappointments. The Titans easily handled the Baltimore Ravens as QB Steve McNair threw a touchdown, Rob Bironas kicked field goals of 39, 29 and 47 yards and Rob Reynolds blocked a punt in the end zone for a safety as the NFL's youngest team easily dismantled a supposedly improved Ravens offense. Tennessee outplayed Baltimore's Pro Bowl-stocked unit with six sacks and two turnovers, including Kassell's 21-yard interception return in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, for the Ram’s QB Marc Bulger completed 18 of 29 passes for 216 yards, including a 19-yard touchdown pass to Torry Holt as the Rams defeated Arizona 17-12. The Rams might easily have scored 45 points in this game. Bulger directed touchdown drives on St. Louis' first possession of each half and the Cardinals advanced inside the Rams 12 four times without a touchdown. Sacks spoiled three of the threats. RB Steven Jackson rushed for 93 yards on 18 carries, including a seven-yard TD that was the difference in the game.
The Rams have always been dominant at home during the past six seasons and I do not expect that to change in this match-up. The Rams will throw often and long against an inexperienced and sub-par Tennessee secondary, as Bulger and company will fill the stat sheet as always going against the far weaker secondary then their own. The Titans CB Woolfolk will draw WR Holt, and rookie CB "Pacman" Jones will get WR Isaac Bruce. Bruce hasn't found the end zone yet this year but he's still got his wheels, and he plays in a pass oriented offense, he may get their twice this Sunday. Woolfolk can't stay with Holt, but the better match-up will probably be on the other side, with Bruce against the rookie. Indeed non of Tennesse’s past opponents have had the pass attack to take advantage of Tennessee's weak secondary.
Tennessee looked bad in their only road game, and note that the Titans are 3-6 SU/ATS their last 9 road contests. St. Louis is 15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS its last 18 home games and likes playing on the turf. The Rams are also are 11-1 ATS at home against non-division foes after playing a division road game while Tennessee has lost to the spread six consecutive times in home sandwiches. Simply put this is a match-up nighmare for the Titans so look for the Rams to light up the scoreboard early and often. Lay the chalk.
Forecast: Tennessee 17, St. Louis 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ST. LOUIS -6
ATLANTA (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 1)
Week 3 Sunday, 9/25/2005 1:00 PM
* Atlanta QB Michael Vick (Hamstring) is "?"
vs 
Analysis
Here's what you need to know about both of these teams: 1) Great defenses, one-dimensional offenses, 2) They're both 1-0 Su/ATS at home, 0-1 SU/ATS on the road. Atlanta had a rematch of the NFC Championship game in the opener and shut down the Eagles, before looking like they played with a hangover in a 21-18 loss at Seattle. The final score was misleading, as Seattle led 21-0 at the half. The Falcons were out gained by close to a 2-to-1 margin (428-223) and QB Mike Vick (123 pass yards) showed again he can't bring a team back with his arm. Most surprising was an Atlanta run defense that got smoked, allowing 163 yards, 4.8 ypc, to Seattle. QB Matt Schaub replaced Vick late in the game when the Atlanta QB felt his left leg cramping after a 32-yard run after Vick injured his hamstring. Many followers of this team (I lived in Buffalo for 2 years) know that Buffalo loves playing on their home turf. They are a talented, veteran team with the exception of QB, J.P. Losman who was awful in his first road start, going a poor 12-of-29 for 113 yards in a 19-3 loss at Tampa Bay. It took the Bills 28 minutes to get a first down. The Bills went three plays and out on seven of their 10 possessions.
Regardless of the past results, the story in this game is whether or not the “stud” QB Vick will be playing in this game. By now all of us degenerate gamblers know that last week he was forced out of a game that they were trailing in the fourth quarter, while he (alone) was the driving force behind a comeback attempt. If there had been a chance that Vick could stay in that game at Seattle and win it, he would have been in there! But somehow the question still lingers…will Vick play? Amazingly, there is still not much information at all on Vicks's status for this game. From what I have gathered reading some local Atlanta papers, there were no serious problems were found with Vick's hamstring, but he has not been practicing this week as a precautionary measure. Lets simplify this dilemma, this is a non-conference road game for Atlanta, and probably the least important game on Atlanta’s schedule. If they need to hold Vick out, then this will be the situation to do it. If he actually suits up and starts, he will be rusty (has not practiced all week) and he will probably stay in the pocket and not risk running much and worsening his situation. So if you’re the coach, why even bother, when you can use the opportunity to give Matt Schaub a game and perhaps if Vick is hurt again later in the season it will give the opportunity for Schaub to get more experience. However, against this defense Schaub has no shot. So we’re looking at the entire situation as a “no-win” for Atlanta. I guess I should also mention that traditionally, Atlanta does poorly against the AFC and Buffalo does well against the NFC. Atlanta was not a good road team last season, and they are now 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 road games. Add that to the fact that the Falcons are doing their cross country travels and may catch up with them. Buffalo Stampede!.
Projected Score: BUF Bills 24, ATL Falcons 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO -2.5
TAMPA BAY (2 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 2)
Week 3 Sunday, 9/25/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
An early season battle of the bays. The Buccaneers (2-0 SU/ATS) are the big surprise of the NFL, dominating the Vikings and Bills with great defense and a new-found running game. Tampa Bay dominated the Buffalo Bills 19-3 Sunday for the team's first 2-0 start in five years. Rookie RB Cadillac Williams bolted for 128 yards and one touchdown and has 276 yards after his second pro game. Tampa Bay had an outstanding defensive effort allowing the Bills just 147 yards of offense. QB Brian Griese completed 16 of 22 passes for 136 yds. Tampa Bay is 2-0 "under" the total and 13-5 "under" its last 18 games. Tampa Bay is also 2-7 SU/ATS their last 9 road games (though 1-0 SU/ATS this season). For this game, note that RB Carnell Williams (foot sprain) is questionable. On the tundra of Green Bay, the Packers started out 7-0 on their first possession when WR Donald Driver caught a short pass over the middle for a 42-yard score. But that was it for highlights, as the Packers lost to the Browns 26-24. QB Bret Favre completed 32 of 44 passes for 342 yards, 2 INTs and three scores. The Packers (0-2 SU, ATS) looked at first like they wouldn't miss WR Javon Walker, who went down with a season-ending knee injury in the opener, but of course they did during a closing drive in the fourth quarter. Despite 452 yards of offense, the Pack allowed 391 yards to a bad Browns team plus two turnovers were the difference.
The line on this game is now Green +4 and 65% of the betting public are going to the window backing the Bucs. Well, we are going to be in the 35% who do not and are going to take all this extra value in this line value that they have so graciously given us. If this game was played in Week #1, the line would have been reversed with Green Bay being 4 point home chalk. This game is a key example of how past results and the public perceptions of those results in an incorrect line. Tampa is off a nice home win against the Bills who had Rookie QB Losheman playing his first home game, and was clearly out of his comfort zone. We also know is the Green Bay allowed 391 to the Brown’s but most of those plays were through the air not on the ground. Tampa, although not one-dimensional clearly favors the running game and Green Bay is allowing just 78.5 yards rushing per game, which is 7th best in the NFL. So I pose the question to you, can Tampa Bay put on the air show if their running game is shut down? I already know the answer to this so you decide.
Since he's been with the Packers, Favre (AKA God) has been a home dog only eight times. He won six of those eight games on the field and covered the spread in one of the two losses to give him a sterling 7-1 money mark in that role. Tampa is also in one of its worst roles. The Bucs are a meager 6-13 vs the spread in their last 19 tries as road favorites, including 2-8 ATS off a win and 1-7 vs the line against opponents who are off back-to-back losses. Tamps Bay has not performed well on the road between home games (seven straight ATS losses) and Brett Favre (see above) is pissed. With the Packers 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home when taking points (including 4-0 SU & ATS when playing off a loss), I have no other choice but to back the better QB here today.
*I rarely double side a game but I’m certainly looking hard at this total of 37.5 points. At the very least if the Packers were to lose this game, I still see them putting up at least 21 points going down with a fight! Considering we know Tampa Bay WILL be able to score on this defense this is a great spot to be looking over the total.
Forecast: Tampa Bay 21, Green Bay 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON GREEN BAY +4
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUCS/PACKERS OVER 37.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* ST. LOUIS -6 Probable Updgrade
1* BUFFALO -2.5 ADDED
1* GREEN BAY +4 ADDED
1* TAMPA BAY/GREEN BAY OVER 37.5 ADDED
--------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1)
Week 3 Sunday, 9/25/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
The St. Louis Rams are very happy to be back in the friendly confines of their dome after a humiliating loss in San Francisco to the 49ers in Week 1 and a very close victory against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. Both teams come into this match-up with identical 1-1 records following opening week disappointments. The Titans easily handled the Baltimore Ravens as QB Steve McNair threw a touchdown, Rob Bironas kicked field goals of 39, 29 and 47 yards and Rob Reynolds blocked a punt in the end zone for a safety as the NFL's youngest team easily dismantled a supposedly improved Ravens offense. Tennessee outplayed Baltimore's Pro Bowl-stocked unit with six sacks and two turnovers, including Kassell's 21-yard interception return in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, for the Ram’s QB Marc Bulger completed 18 of 29 passes for 216 yards, including a 19-yard touchdown pass to Torry Holt as the Rams defeated Arizona 17-12. The Rams might easily have scored 45 points in this game. Bulger directed touchdown drives on St. Louis' first possession of each half and the Cardinals advanced inside the Rams 12 four times without a touchdown. Sacks spoiled three of the threats. RB Steven Jackson rushed for 93 yards on 18 carries, including a seven-yard TD that was the difference in the game.
The Rams have always been dominant at home during the past six seasons and I do not expect that to change in this match-up. The Rams will throw often and long against an inexperienced and sub-par Tennessee secondary, as Bulger and company will fill the stat sheet as always going against the far weaker secondary then their own. The Titans CB Woolfolk will draw WR Holt, and rookie CB "Pacman" Jones will get WR Isaac Bruce. Bruce hasn't found the end zone yet this year but he's still got his wheels, and he plays in a pass oriented offense, he may get their twice this Sunday. Woolfolk can't stay with Holt, but the better match-up will probably be on the other side, with Bruce against the rookie. Indeed non of Tennesse’s past opponents have had the pass attack to take advantage of Tennessee's weak secondary.
Tennessee looked bad in their only road game, and note that the Titans are 3-6 SU/ATS their last 9 road contests. St. Louis is 15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS its last 18 home games and likes playing on the turf. The Rams are also are 11-1 ATS at home against non-division foes after playing a division road game while Tennessee has lost to the spread six consecutive times in home sandwiches. Simply put this is a match-up nighmare for the Titans so look for the Rams to light up the scoreboard early and often. Lay the chalk.
Forecast: Tennessee 17, St. Louis 34
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ST. LOUIS -6
ATLANTA (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 1)
Week 3 Sunday, 9/25/2005 1:00 PM
* Atlanta QB Michael Vick (Hamstring) is "?"
vs Analysis
Here's what you need to know about both of these teams: 1) Great defenses, one-dimensional offenses, 2) They're both 1-0 Su/ATS at home, 0-1 SU/ATS on the road. Atlanta had a rematch of the NFC Championship game in the opener and shut down the Eagles, before looking like they played with a hangover in a 21-18 loss at Seattle. The final score was misleading, as Seattle led 21-0 at the half. The Falcons were out gained by close to a 2-to-1 margin (428-223) and QB Mike Vick (123 pass yards) showed again he can't bring a team back with his arm. Most surprising was an Atlanta run defense that got smoked, allowing 163 yards, 4.8 ypc, to Seattle. QB Matt Schaub replaced Vick late in the game when the Atlanta QB felt his left leg cramping after a 32-yard run after Vick injured his hamstring. Many followers of this team (I lived in Buffalo for 2 years) know that Buffalo loves playing on their home turf. They are a talented, veteran team with the exception of QB, J.P. Losman who was awful in his first road start, going a poor 12-of-29 for 113 yards in a 19-3 loss at Tampa Bay. It took the Bills 28 minutes to get a first down. The Bills went three plays and out on seven of their 10 possessions.
Regardless of the past results, the story in this game is whether or not the “stud” QB Vick will be playing in this game. By now all of us degenerate gamblers know that last week he was forced out of a game that they were trailing in the fourth quarter, while he (alone) was the driving force behind a comeback attempt. If there had been a chance that Vick could stay in that game at Seattle and win it, he would have been in there! But somehow the question still lingers…will Vick play? Amazingly, there is still not much information at all on Vicks's status for this game. From what I have gathered reading some local Atlanta papers, there were no serious problems were found with Vick's hamstring, but he has not been practicing this week as a precautionary measure. Lets simplify this dilemma, this is a non-conference road game for Atlanta, and probably the least important game on Atlanta’s schedule. If they need to hold Vick out, then this will be the situation to do it. If he actually suits up and starts, he will be rusty (has not practiced all week) and he will probably stay in the pocket and not risk running much and worsening his situation. So if you’re the coach, why even bother, when you can use the opportunity to give Matt Schaub a game and perhaps if Vick is hurt again later in the season it will give the opportunity for Schaub to get more experience. However, against this defense Schaub has no shot. So we’re looking at the entire situation as a “no-win” for Atlanta. I guess I should also mention that traditionally, Atlanta does poorly against the AFC and Buffalo does well against the NFC. Atlanta was not a good road team last season, and they are now 4-6 SU/ATS the last 10 road games. Add that to the fact that the Falcons are doing their cross country travels and may catch up with them. Buffalo Stampede!.
Projected Score: BUF Bills 24, ATL Falcons 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO -2.5
TAMPA BAY (2 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 2)
Week 3 Sunday, 9/25/2005 1:00 PM
vs Analysis
An early season battle of the bays. The Buccaneers (2-0 SU/ATS) are the big surprise of the NFL, dominating the Vikings and Bills with great defense and a new-found running game. Tampa Bay dominated the Buffalo Bills 19-3 Sunday for the team's first 2-0 start in five years. Rookie RB Cadillac Williams bolted for 128 yards and one touchdown and has 276 yards after his second pro game. Tampa Bay had an outstanding defensive effort allowing the Bills just 147 yards of offense. QB Brian Griese completed 16 of 22 passes for 136 yds. Tampa Bay is 2-0 "under" the total and 13-5 "under" its last 18 games. Tampa Bay is also 2-7 SU/ATS their last 9 road games (though 1-0 SU/ATS this season). For this game, note that RB Carnell Williams (foot sprain) is questionable. On the tundra of Green Bay, the Packers started out 7-0 on their first possession when WR Donald Driver caught a short pass over the middle for a 42-yard score. But that was it for highlights, as the Packers lost to the Browns 26-24. QB Bret Favre completed 32 of 44 passes for 342 yards, 2 INTs and three scores. The Packers (0-2 SU, ATS) looked at first like they wouldn't miss WR Javon Walker, who went down with a season-ending knee injury in the opener, but of course they did during a closing drive in the fourth quarter. Despite 452 yards of offense, the Pack allowed 391 yards to a bad Browns team plus two turnovers were the difference.
The line on this game is now Green +4 and 65% of the betting public are going to the window backing the Bucs. Well, we are going to be in the 35% who do not and are going to take all this extra value in this line value that they have so graciously given us. If this game was played in Week #1, the line would have been reversed with Green Bay being 4 point home chalk. This game is a key example of how past results and the public perceptions of those results in an incorrect line. Tampa is off a nice home win against the Bills who had Rookie QB Losheman playing his first home game, and was clearly out of his comfort zone. We also know is the Green Bay allowed 391 to the Brown’s but most of those plays were through the air not on the ground. Tampa, although not one-dimensional clearly favors the running game and Green Bay is allowing just 78.5 yards rushing per game, which is 7th best in the NFL. So I pose the question to you, can Tampa Bay put on the air show if their running game is shut down? I already know the answer to this so you decide.
Since he's been with the Packers, Favre (AKA God) has been a home dog only eight times. He won six of those eight games on the field and covered the spread in one of the two losses to give him a sterling 7-1 money mark in that role. Tampa is also in one of its worst roles. The Bucs are a meager 6-13 vs the spread in their last 19 tries as road favorites, including 2-8 ATS off a win and 1-7 vs the line against opponents who are off back-to-back losses. Tamps Bay has not performed well on the road between home games (seven straight ATS losses) and Brett Favre (see above) is pissed. With the Packers 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home when taking points (including 4-0 SU & ATS when playing off a loss), I have no other choice but to back the better QB here today.
*I rarely double side a game but I’m certainly looking hard at this total of 37.5 points. At the very least if the Packers were to lose this game, I still see them putting up at least 21 points going down with a fight! Considering we know Tampa Bay WILL be able to score on this defense this is a great spot to be looking over the total.
Forecast: Tampa Bay 21, Green Bay 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON GREEN BAY +4
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUCS/PACKERS OVER 37.5
It's always noon somewhere! 
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