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**BettorsChat** · 11-26-2002, 11:36 PM

WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET (NBA & NCAA BASKETBALL)

NBA BASKETBALL

Friday, November 29
**PREFERRED
Philadelphia over *Cleveland by 13
Philly getting a bit healthier, Coleman is back now, and they are just too talented for the Cavs. Coleman had 9 points and 5 bounds the other night in win vs. Raptors in only 17 minutes. Ricky Davis thinks he can play in this league but not sure he has even convinced his own coach John Lukas. In 26-point win early this year in Philly, the 76ers got great minutes out of Skinner and Buckner and Van Horn torched Hill. Expect more of the same. PHILADELPHIA 104-91

**PREFERRED
Los Angeles Lakers over *Memphis by 15
Last year the Lakers lost a lot of games to bad teams. Since they got off to such a poor start, they have to take care of business against the weaklings the rest of the way. This is a step down for L.A. after they just faced the Magic. No matter how hard Hubie Brown has them playing, they are in a whole new dimension against the champs especially since Shaq is back. L.A. Lakers 100-85

**PREFERRED
Golden State over *Denver by 12
These are two of the bottom feeders but at least there is light at the end of the tunnel where Warriors are concerned. They have a go-to guy in Jamison. They have another scorer in Richardson and Dunleavy is starting to contribute off the bench. The rest of the league has noticed. Check out Coach Rivers comments after his team got drilled by 42 by Golden State. Rivers: They act like they have a chance of winning. They don't have that inevitable look of doom on their faces. GOLDEN STATE 102-90

***BEST BET
*Sacramento over Los Angeles Clippers by 21
After getting blown out in L.A in first meeting last year, Kings dominated covering the next 3 winning outright in the process. Not impressed with Clippers coaching staff after Denver debacle 11/22. Clips had the game in control, Denver started making a move, but instead of calling a time out or two to stop the momentum, Coach Gentry just watched. This was the second straight fourth quarter L.A. collapse. Turkoglu and Stojakovic will love going length of the floor with athletic Clips. SACRAMENTO 111-90

Saturday, November 30
**PREFFERED
*New York over New Orleans by 9
The Knicks have double revenge as a solid motive this time. They had the Hornets on the ropes in the Garden 11/10, got outscored by almost double digits in the last quarter and wilted in overtime. They were up 8 at halftime vs. Orleans 11/22, but lost in double OT. Spree gives New York a slasher that plays defense, unlike Nailon. If Knicks D up down low, Houston and Spree should take them home. NEW YORK 97-88

***BEST BET
*Miami over Cleveland by 17
The Heat could steal one here. The Cavaliers hosted Philly last night and you know that had to be a defensive game. Riley has his guys playing defense. They beat Milwaukee in Milwaukee 11/19 by 4 and a lot of guys are getting playing time. MIAMI 97-80

**PREFERRED
*Portland over New Jersey by 12
Portland catches Jersey in a similar situation to last year when Nets visited. Last season, Jersey was playing a third game in 4 nights and Blazers covered in low-scoring win. This is the Nets fourth game of the journey and they still have Seattle to play tomorrow. Blazers seems to get up for top-caliber foes and Portland is one of the few teams that can match Jersey athletically. Coach Cheeks has to find his energy guys. The team is so deep, the second squad can beat most of the teams in the league. Recent pot bust of Wallace and Stoudamire could help Portland. They love the us against them theme. PORTLAND 105-93

Sunday, December 1
**PREFERRED
*Seattle over New Jersey by 14
Straight-shooting Sonics beat the Nets and covered at home last year winning by a half dozen. They catch the Nets in a back to back after playing the smoky Blazers last night and in a third game in 4 nights situation. Both teams like to run but Seattle much more potent from the perimeter with Barry in the lineup. Payton and Kidd have a long hometown bond and that should be a great matchup. Not convinced Nets can stop Sonics and Lewis from slashing to the hoop. SEATTLE 100-86

**PREFERRED
*Sacramento over Houston by 17
Exciting Yao Ming could be in for a little schooling this time against either Webber or the tricky Divac. Rockets live and die by the outside shot with Francis moving the rock. Norris will likely start but Rice is over the hill. Rockets dont have the half-court defense to shut down the Kings and they cant run with them either. After a shaky start as home chalk, expect Kings to right themselves. Last year they were 30-18 against the number at home. SACRAMENTO 109-92

***BEST BET
*Los Angeles Lakers over Minnesota by 17
Shaq Daddy should have a couple of games under his belt by this time and that spells disaster for the visitors. The other L.A. players had to grow up in Shaqs absence and guys like Medvedenko, George, Rush and Shaw should be better off down the line. Medvedenko somehow got off 17 shots in 17 minutes in win vs. Bulls 11/22. TWolves still trying to find themselves. Hudson and Strickland are trying to replace Brandon and Billups at point guard. Peeler has had to adjust, and Szczerbiak's sore foot cost him seven of the first 11 games. Staples crowd long overdue to get a blowout. L.A. LAKERS 116-99

Monday, December 2
***BEST BET
*Dallas over Toronto by 21
This is the third city in 4 days for the Raptors. They had to travel from Boston to Memphis and now to Big D. Two conflicting styles here. Raptors have no choice but to bang low and try to execute a half court offense. Dallas did little wrong in first couple of weeks of season and are starting to perfect a zone defense with the giant Bradley as a blocker down low. Nash never seems to get tired, nobody in the league stops Nowitzki. Cuban will light one up around the third quarter. DALLAS 119-98

Tuesday, December 3
**PREFERRED
Atlanta over *New Jersey by 1
The Hawks have had a couple of days to rest after playing in Orlando. In the season opener, Hawks only got outplayed in the opening quarter in New Jersey and they failed to cover by just a point. Abdur-Rahim was out with a sore back and his replacement, Henderson, had 4 points, 7 bounds, and zero assists in 42 minutes. ATLANTA 96-95

Wednesday, December 4
**PREFERRED
Sacramento over *Denver by 13
Nobody looks to score on Denver except for Posey and Harvey. They have a hard time going over the 80 mark and face a team that should have won the Finals last year but choked against the Lakers in OT in their last game. Cant see a number big enough to think that Juwan Howard will stop either Webber or Divic. SACRAMENTO 105-92.

**PREFERRED
*Portland over Dallas by 9
Could easily see some bad blood here with Bradleys sharp elbows and Wallaces short fuse. Portland will have to do it by committee. It still seems a new guy has to step up every night. Mavs miss Van Exel and LaFrentz and Portland matches up well with visitors on the talent scale. PORTLAND 107-98

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Saturday, November 30
**PREFERRED
LSU over Texas A&M by 18 (at Houston)
JC transfer Jaimie Lloreda is 6-9, 240 and gives LSU an impact player to join natural scorer Ronald Dupree and improving 6-8 250 Brad Bridgewater underneath. Senior point guard Torris Bright made major strides during last seasons limbo year for the program (on NCAA probation and lost Stromile Swift and Jabari Smith to the NBA). A&M is breaking in a new point guard from among newcomer JC transfer Leandro Garcia-Morales, or self-oriented off-guard Bernard King. LSU, 80-62.

**PREFERRED
St. Bonaventure over St. Louis by 14 (at Rochester, NY)
Look to go against Saint Louis a lot. When head coach Lorenzo Romar bolted for Washington, recruits and expected returnees began to scatter elsewhere rather than play for new head coach Brad Soderberg. When they lost to a depleted Tennessee-Martin team at home last week, you began to see the results of this mass defection. ST. BONAVENTURE, 81-67.

***BEST BET
Texas over Seton Hall by 23 (at Houston)
Seton Hall has lost too many bodies to the NBA over the last few years, and head coach Louis Orr opted to start fresh with a new player rather than take outside gunner Darius Lane back for another year of mindless mother-chuckin. Yet where Seton Hall once got the best recruits from their Jersey area, they are now going to Syracuse (Carmelo Anthony) or to Villanova, where the former Seton Hall ace recruiter is now employed under Jay Wright. In point guard match-up of Andre Barrett vs. Texas T.J. Ford, Barrett loses. TEXAS, 89-66.

**PREFERRED
James Madison over West Virginia* by 5
West Virginia saw many a player transfer out of there over the last few years, which, when you factor in the loss of three double-digit scorers from last season, creates multiple obstacles to achievement. They are switching to a small-ball approach with ex-Richmond head coach John Beilein. But James Madison has 6-10Ian Caskill, a double-double averager who figures to have a clear path to the hoop all night. Plus, JMU has an experienced backcourt with proven scoring ability. JAMES MADISON, 70-65.

***BEST BET
Cal-Santa Barbara* over San Francisco by 20
Prior to their loss in Alaska to a very nice, experienced Weber State squad, UCSBs Brandon Fullove had missed time because of an ankle injury. With that loss and the subsequent consolation game under his belt, he should be good to go in the home opener, complemented by natural scorers Mark Hull and Nick Jones. USF has a major hole to fill in the wake of departed 7-footer Hondre Brewer. And when point guard LyRyan Russell went down with a knee injury last season, the team completely collapsed. He aint never cominback. When USF won on its home floor by 3 points last season, both Fullove and the starting center did not play for UCSB. CAL-SANTA BARBARA, 80-60.

Sunday, December 1
**PREFERRED
Vanderbilt* over Connecticut by 14
Vandy has shored up its inside game, and Emeka Okafor of Uconn is vastly overrated as far as this paper is concerned. Let him prove he can be a reliable offensive weapon and stay out of foul trouble on the road without Caron Butler playing alongside him. VANDERBILT, 78-64.

Tuesday, December 3
**PREFERRED
Florida over West Virginia by 27 (at Charleston)
As mentioned in West Virginias forecast vs. James Madison on Saturday, they must overcome roster turnover, a new coach, and a new style. In this match-up, they must overcome that while combating a team on a mission whose athletes have the ability to control the tempo at a fast pace, and wear them down. FLORIDA, 88-61.

**PREFERRED
Cal-Santa Barbara* over USC by 13
The Thunderdome will be rocking, and USC wont be popping with the loss of Clancy and Bluthenthal leaving behind a bunch of questionable shooters and decision-makers. UC-SANTA BARBARA, 73-60.

Wednesday, December 4
**PREFERRED
Temple over NC-Charlotte* by 9
Charlotte is looking to become less perimeter-oriented. Good luck to them in their attempt to get the ball inside vs. the match-up zone. On the list of teams ranked by basketball smarts, the 49ers are way down there. TEMPLE, 74-65.

**BettorsChat** · 11-26-2002, 11:36 PM

WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET

NCAA PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* OKLAHOMA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 32
3* T.C.U.* over MEMPHIS by 28

**PREFERRED PLAYS
Nebraska* over Colorado by 12 (Friday)
Colorado State* over U.N.L.V. by 8
Southern Miss* over East Carolina by 21
Alabama over Hawaii* by 22

NFL PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
3* Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17

**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11

CLOSE CALLS
New England over *Detroit by 1 (Thanksgiving)
*Dallas over Washington by 1 (Thanksgiving)

NFL TOTALS
**OVER: Atlanta at Minnesota Mike Vick and his teammates are getting better each week and will be operating against a horrible defense, while the Vikings are averaging close to 24 points their past five games.

UNDER: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville The Steelers lose their passing edge without Tommy Maddox, and six of the last seven games between these teams at Jacksonville has gone under the total.

UNDER: Tennessee at New York Giants Tricky winds this time of year at Giants Stadium could hurt the kickers in this matchup, which figures to have plenty of running and conservative play-calling.

DETAILED NCAA & NFL PLAYS ANALYSIS

****BEST BETS

OKLAHOMA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 32
When this game kicks off, Bob Stoops and his Sooners will not know whether or not they are in-line for an appearance in the National Championship game. There is still some more football to be played before that will be determined. What they do know is that when they took the field against these same Cowboys in Norman LY they were on track to play for it all, merely needing a win to get to the Big 12 title game, and then another to face Miami in the Rose Bowl. But they did not take care of business that day. They suffered a humiliating 16-13 defeat as 26-point favorites that they have been waiting all season to avenge. And now that the time is here, they will not only get it done, but they will get it done in style. There were no flukes in LYs loss they were dominated at the line of scrimmage by a team playing with much more passion than they were. How about zero rushing yards? Yes, that is the total that the Sooners came away with. But this is a much different offense this time, with Quentin Griffith adding such a legitimate run threat that he will star harbor Heisman hopes coming in. And Griffith gets to do his thing against a soft Cowboy defense that has shown little ability to deal with either the run or pass, holding only Nebraska to less than 400 yards in Big 12 play (Cornhuskers did run it for 259), and in recent weeks have seen Kansas and Baylor combined for 41 points, 49 first downs and 827 yards. That does not bode well for their chances against an opponent that not only wants to win, but win big, and once those floodgates have opened the lead that vaunted Sooner defense takes care of the rest. OKLAHOMA 42-10.

T.C.U.* over MEMPHIS by 28
In a season in which we have suffered some extremely difficult defeats at the top of these pages, there may not have been a more frustrating four quarters of football than T.C.U.s loss at East Carolina. We called for the Horned Frogs to completely dominate the line of scrimmage against an opponent that they could physically man-handle, and that is exactly what happened. First downs were 22-9. Rushing yardage was 268-75, with almost half (37) of the Pirate rushing yardage coming on a fake punt in the fourth quarter. Total offense was 445-236 in favor of the Horned Frogs. That should be enough for a favorite in single digits, but not only did they not get the cover they lost the whole game. And the problem was an unusual one. A fundamentally sound team that had only turned the ball over 15 times all season had seven on Saturday, including a back-breaking fumble that was returned 81 yards for a TD with 8:46 to play, at a time when they were driving to break the game open. But good teams can shake off those kinds of defeats, and with the bowl scouts watching they will revert to their previous form and play a mistake-free game in the home finale. That is all it takes against another Conference USA foe that can be overpowered right at the point of attack the Tiger neither run the football well nor defend the run, with their latter unit allowing an alarming 36 points per game on the road this season, against not exactly a powerhouse schedule. In five road outings they lost by less than 14 points only once, and even in that 31-28 defeat at South Florida they trailed by 21 points in the second half. T.C.U. 42-14.

**PREFERRED PLAYS

Nebraska* over Colorado by 12 (Friday)
One of the most watched, and subsequently most talked about, games of the 2001 campaign was the meeting between these two on a cold Friday in Boulder. The Buffaloes rolled to a 62-36 victory, and in the process created much BCS confusion and controversy. But in retrospect, most memories of that day may not be accurate. Yes, everyone will remember that Chris Brown and the Buffaloes ran off tackle at will, piling up 380 rushing yards, and 582 of total offense. What few will remember is that Nebraska also piled up 354 yards on the ground, part of a 552 total, and that it was actually an 0-4 turnover gap that caused the rout, not the physical mismatch that it is remembered as having been. Now the Cornhuskers have had 12 months to get their revenge, and they can get it in style by once again running the ball at will vs. an average, at best, Buffalo defense. Last three Colorado opponents have scored 89 points and averaged 4.7 per rush, which does not bode well for their chances for success this day. NEBRASKA 38-26.

Colorado State* over U.N.L.V. by 8
Year in and year out, there probably is no coach in the land that gets more out of less than Sonny Lubick in Fort Collins, and that was another brilliant coaching job, with the Rams entering this with a 9-2 record, a Mountain West Conference championship, and a bowl bid awaiting. But as great as those achievements were, they actually work against them a bit here. Now a schedule that goes back to August 22nd takes a bit of a toll on a squad that only has good, not great, talent, and there is also no real motivation for them to be looking for any kind of margin here. That opens the door for the hard-trying Rebels to be very alive at the price, and under John Robinson there has never been a lack of effort in any matchup. Although still an erratic passer, Jason Thomas does provide the kind of athleticism and running ability that can lead to some ball control vs. an unimposing State defense that has allowed six opponents to score 28 points or more. Lubick wins again, but not easily. COLORADO STATE 31-23.

Southern Miss* over East Carolina by 21
In our BEST BET call to T.C.U. over Memphis at the top of this page, we detail much of the frustration that cost us a play on those Horned Frogs over East Carolina last week. It can take more than a single win to make up for a defeat like that, and we think that we can grab a pair this week by playing that result inside-out. It is not as though Steve Logans Pirates only escape with one miracle how about a two week stretch in which they have trailed by 23 first downs and 452 yards, and yet managed to take each game right to the gun? That is exactly what they have done. And we could even extend it back three weeks ago, when they trailed lowly Houston by 14 in the fourth quarter before rallying to win in overtime. They could just as easily be entering this game on a five-game losing streak, and imagine how much of a difference that would mean in this price? Eagles must win this one in order to be under serious bowl consideration, with is more than enough motivation to get us the effort that we need here. SOUTHERN MISS 33-12.

Alabama over Hawaii* by 22
In some seasons the notion of traveling to play this game the week after facing Auburn would not have been very appetizing for the Crimson Tide, and could have led to an absolute flat spot. But not this particular season. For a team that been ineligible for the Coaches Poll or any bowl possibilities from the start of the season, this actually becomes a chance for them to vent a lot of frustrations. And having turned in a disappointing effort in that loss last Saturday, there is also the chance to spit out some bitter tastes. There is little that the over-rated host (has played arguably the nations weakest schedule) can do to get in the way. Alabama has the personal up front on defense to pressure the passer without having to resort to blitzes, which means plenty of athletes available for the needed coverage schemes vs. a June Jones offense, and their own relentless ground game eventually wears down the under-sized Hawaii defensive front that will have to be on the field far too long. ALABAMA 42-20.

****BEST BETS

Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
Brett Favre is going wild again. Thats not good if youre Green Bay. After playing under control for most of the season, Favre has cut loose with seven interceptions the past two games. The result has been Green Bay road losses to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Now here come the Bears, who had not won since Week 2 until beating Detroit in overtime last week. Even with that morale boost, the Bears arent going anywhere this season, and they know it. Theyre just trying to survive an injury-plagued season. They have already lost 42 different players, when last year they had 31 injuries the entire season. The Bears also have had to play all their games on the road because of remodeling to Solider Field, their home stadium. Believe it or not, this actually will be their first game on grass all season. The Bears are more suited to grass because they like to run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. This is one of the rare games the Bears have been pointing to ever since the Packers embarrassed them on Monday night earlier this season with Favre passing for 359 yards and three touchdowns. This is the oldest rivalry in professional football, and the Bears have no excuse not to be pumped. Despite their 3-7 mark, they have come close their two previous games before Detroit, losing at the very end to New England and battling the Rams on Monday night. The Bears covered both of those contests. This shows that the Bears havent quit, which is crucial when backing a large underdog. While Green Bay has defeated the Bears nine straight times in Illinois, they are 2-3 ATS the past five in Green Bay. If the point spread creeps past 10, keep in mind, too, the Packers are 0-10-2 ATS when laying 11 or more points. Green Bays run defense could be impacted if huge nose tackle Gilbert Brown (check status) is unable to play. Hes their key run stuffer. CHICAGO 26-19.

***BEST

Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
You sure wont hear any guaranteed win predictions this week from Dick LeBeau or any of his Bengals. The Bengals arent playing an expansion team this week. They also are at home. Thats bad news for the Bengals. Its even worse news for their fans, which have to watch them. You would think grocery bags would be a hot selling concession item in Cincinnati. The Bengals have yet to win or cover in five home games this season. Baltimore lost 27 players from last year due to salary cap reasons. Star middle linebacker Ray Lewis has missed six of the past seven games, and their offense ranks near the bottom. Yet the Ravens have things the Bengals totally lack. They have character, mental toughness and good coaching. Those are all foreign concepts to the Bengals. Ravens coach Brian Billick has kept his team together. This is reflected in the standings, where the Ravens are just one game under .500 and in contention for the AFC North Division title. So unlike the Bengals, the Ravens still have playoff motivation. When the teams met just three weeks ago, the Ravens won, 38-27. It was the ninth time in 11 games the Ravens have won and covered against Cincinnati. Jon Kitna has been the Bengalsbest quarterback, which certainly doesnt say much for the state of the team. Yet it wouldnt be surprising if the Bengals cheap management orders LeBeau to play someone else at quarterback because they dont want to have pay performance bonuses that would be due to Kitna. Obviously if Lewis plays, its a huge boost for the Ravens, although Ed Hartwell and Bernardo Harris have been filling in well at linebacker. But the key here is the Ravens should have enough savvy and motivation to get a victory against a listless and gutless Bengals squad that does nothing but lose. The Bengals are 3-7 ATS as an underdog, and have yet to show much life. BALTIMORE 30-13.

**PREFERRED PLAYS

Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Ordinarily we would stay away from the Dolphins in a cold weather site like this. Miami is 0-2 this season in cold weather, losing to Green Bay on Monday night and to the New York Jets. But there is a clear class difference here. The Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team, while the Bills are perhaps a year away. The Dolphins have the better defense and rushing attack. Miami has held its last two foes, Baltimore and San Diego, to a combined 301 yards. The Bills are allowing an average of 33.6 points at home. Not only are the Bills among the most penalized teams in the NFL, but also their offense has regressed. After scoring at least 23 points during their first eight games, the Bills have scored just seven against New England, 16 vs. Kansas City and 13 to the New York Jets. None of those defenses has ever been referred to as being especially tough. They are all clearly inferior to Miamis defense. The Dolphins also know Drew Bledsoe well, having annually gone against him when he played for New England. Prior to this season, the Dolphins had won and covered their past four meetings against Buffalo. But the Bills took advantage of Ray Lucas first start at quarterback to pick off four passes in beating the Dolphins, 23-10, on Oct. 20. Lucas has since settled down to play better, and theres a chance the Dolphins could get back theuir starting quarterback Jay Fielder (check status). MIAMI 26-16.

Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11

A flashy offense, exciting game-breakers and a gaudy 7-4 record cant hide that the Saints have been out-gained this season. They are more about style than substance. The Bucs are much more mundane on offense, but their defense makes plays. They have 30 takeaways and are a plus 15 in turnover ratio. The Bucs also are extremely well coached on defense. Saints QB Aaron Brooks has talent and a big arm, but hes young and prone to make mistakes. The Saints could also be without star all-purpose RB Deuce McAllister (check status). McAllister had accounted for 97 percent of New Orleansrunning game, until missing last weeks loss to Cleveland with a sprained ankle. The Saints need to score plenty of points because their defense is allowing 25.5 points per game. However, in the last two weeks the Saints have combined to score just 32 points. The Saints pass rush is down from past seasons. They have 25 sacks, after posting 53 last season. Given time, Bucs QB Brad Johnson can hurt a defense with his accuracy. Defensive lineman Norman Hand and LB Charlie Clemons are having bad seasons for the Saints. New Orleans biggest weakness, though, has been its secondary. CB Dale Carter is rusty after returning from an eight-game suspension. His return has so far failed to noticeably improve the quality of the secondary. This will be the Bucs first road game in five weeks, so they should be rested. TAMPA BAY 30-19

**BettorsChat** · 11-26-2002, 11:37 PM

Mark Lawerences Playbook

NCAA FOOTBALL
5* VIRGINIA TECH over Virginia by 17
4* SO MISSISSIPPI over E Carolina by 21
3* CINCINNATI over Uab by 27

NFL FOOTBALL
5* Denver over SAN DIEGO by 13
4* MINNESOTA over Atlanta by 7
3* Tampa Bay over NEW ORLEANS by 10

NFL TOTALS
5* Dolphins/BILLS 5* BEST BET UNDER
4* Titans/GIANTS 4* BEST BET OVER
3* Cardinals/CHIEFS UNDER

**BettorsChat** · 11-26-2002, 11:37 PM

Pointwise Collegiate & NFL Footbal Newsletter 11/26/02
NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* CINCINNATI over Alabama-B'ham
1* TEXAS CHRISTIAN over Memphis
2* FLORIDA over Florida State
3* BOSTON COLLEGE over Rutgers
4* SO MISSISSIPPI over East Carolina
5* KENTUCKY over Tennesse

NFL SELECTIONS:
2* GREEN BAY over Chicago
3* OAKLAND over New York Jets
4* CINCINNATI over Baltimore
4* KANSAS CITY over Arizona
5* MINNESOTA over Atlanta

NCAA BASKETBALL SELECTIONS
1* INDIANA over Maryland (Tues)
1* GONZAGA over Washington (Mon)
2* TULSA over Arkansas (Sat)
3* UCLA over Duke (Sat)
3* DAYTON over Cincinnati (Sat)
4* RUTGERS over Marshall (Mon)

**BettorsChat** · 11-27-2002, 04:35 PM

The Harmon Football Forecast 11/27/02
The Harmon Football Forecast is one of the most highly regarded and widely read sports features in the country, published in over 200 newspapers.

It all began when Bob Harmon began predicting college and NFL games in 1957. He devised a mathematical formula that picked winners correctly between 72 and 78 percent of the time; most seasons getting almost 75 percent of his picks right.

Today, Jim Harmon and his staff are the only forecasters who predict exact scores and chart every college and pro team.

Thursday, November 28, 2002
New England 23, *Detroit 14
All the Patriots should worry about here is completing passes, because the Lions cant stop them if they do. They last squared off two Thanksgivings ago, when Detroit came away with an easy 34-9 win.

Washington 14, *Dallas 10
A matchup of weak offenses and OK defenses, so dont expect a lot of scoring. This pick is a huge upset, because the Cowboys have won the last nine in the series, most recently 9-7 and 20-14 in 2001.

Sunday, December 1, 2002
Atlanta 27, *Minnesota 21
No sure thing for the Falcons if they stick to their strength, the run, because the Vikings are as good at it as they are and defend much better against it. Minnesota was a 17-14 winner three years ago.

Baltimore 21, *Cincinnati 12
Jamal Lewis ran for 135 yards and two TDs in the Ravens unexpectedly offense-filled 38-27 win over the Bengals three weeks ago. Baltimore needs this one badly, but we wonder how Cincy can get psyched.

*Buffalo 24, Miami 21
In Week Seven the Bills intercepted four Ray Lucas passes on the way to thrashing the Dolphins 23-10. Miami may have the defensive advantage, but Buffalo will more than likely have a meteorological one.

*Cleveland 22, Carolina 16
Speaking of defensive edges, the Panthers continue to excel -- on paper, anyway -- against both ground and air attacks. Obviously stats arent everything. Theyve met once, in a 31-17 Carolina win.

Denver 28, *San Diego 21
In October the Broncos did what we said they would against the Chargers, limiting their running game (while Brian Griese threw for 316 yards and two TDs) and winning 26-9. Look for more of the same.

*Green Bay 35, Chicago 13
The same weekend Denver beat up on S.D., the Packers sacked the Bears for the 15th time in their last 17 games, 34-21. G.B. is better than Chicago in everything but run defense, but the Bears cant run.

*Indianapolis 26, Houston 12
Not only did the Texans do nothing against the Colts 10 weeks ago, losing 23-3, but they still have the worst offense in the NFL. Their bright spot, which should make the rematch closer, is pass defense.

*Kansas City 29, Arizona 15
The Cardinals, headed downhill even before they met the Eagles and Raiders, will struggle against the Chiefs ground attack. Last year Arizona withstood a furious fourth-quarter K.C. rally to win 24-16.

*New Orleans 20, Tampa Bay 18
It was a sign of all the wackiness to come when the Saints racked up 368 yards against the Buccaneers defense in a 26-20 Week One win. The T.B. D has few weaknesses, so a N.O. repeat will be tough.

*N.Y. Giants 24, Tennessee 17
Theres no telling what will happen in a game involving the Titans, but the Giants should win if they put the ball up. N.Y. won the first five games in this series and Tennessee has won the last two.

St. Louis 21, *Philadelphia 20
The Eagles horrific QB luck aside, the 01 NFC Championship rematch may still be the game of the week. Heck, A.J. Feeley may be the next big story. East of Denver, these are the NFLs most balanced teams.

Pittsburgh 23, *Jacksonville 21
Brilliant one week and bumbling the next, the Steelers seem as moody as the Titans. In the seven years of their AFC Central rivalry, Jacksonville won eight of 14 against Pittsburgh and was 6-1 at home.

*San Francisco 26, Seattle 14
In Seattle in October, 49er Terrell Owens' s post-winning-TD ball-signing highlighted S.F.s 28-21 victory over the Seahawks. Seattle will want some payback, but the 49ers are too strong on the ground.

Monday, December 2, 2002
*Oakland 30, N.Y. Jets 17
What weirdness will ensue here? Balls should fill the air, because neither team plays competent pass defense. The Raiders fought off a late Jets rally to win a wild-card playoff game last season, 38-24.

NCAA FOOTBALL
Week of Nov. 30
Thursday, Nov. 28
*Alabama State 24 Tuskegee 12
*Mississippi 21 Mississippi State 10
Friday, Nov. 29
Arizona State 25 *Arizona 14
*Arkansas 23 L.S.U. 19
*Nebraska 21 Colorado 19
*Texas 28 Texas A&M 16
Saturday, Nov. 30
Alabama 29 *Hawaii 14
*Boston College 35 Rutgers 7
Bowling Green 19 *Toledo 17
*Central Florida 20 Ohio 9
*Cincinnati 33 Alabama-Birmingham 13
*Colorado State 27 Nevada-Las Vegas 7
*Florida State 27 Florida 19
*Georgia 28 Georgia Tech 13
Grambling 30 *Southern U. 14
Louisville 26 *Houston 13
*Marshall 27 Ball State 12
*Maryland 25 Wake Forest 10
Miami 31 *Syracuse 12
*Middle Tennessee State 21 Utah State 16
*New Mexico 21 Wyoming 14
Oklahoma 28 *Oklahoma State 14
*Pittsburgh 19 West Virginia 14
*Southern California 30 Notre Dame 15
*Southern Mississippi 24 East Carolina 13
*Tennessee 25 Kentucky 22
*Texas Christian 28 Memphis 7
*Virginia Tech 27 Virginia 14

**BettorsChat** · 11-27-2002, 04:36 PM

THE SUNSHINE FORCAST 11/27/02
THE SUNSHINE FORCAST

WEEK 13 OF THE 2002 NFL REGULAR SEASON
Does the home underdog still provide a betting edge in the NFL?
Last November we wrote about home underdogs in the NFL and felt that it was worth repeating this season with analysis of games played between 1990 and 2001. One of the groups that had the best ATS record over those twelve years were teams receiving more than seven points, covering nearly 62% of the time (87-54 ATS). Five out of seven "big" home dogs have covered in 2002. [A list of "big underdog" games from the 2000 through 2002 seasons appears later in this newsletter.]

If the big underdog lost on the road in the previous game, the edge rises to almost 66% (50-26 ATS). The 2002 season's four occurrences have been evenly split at 2-2 ATS.

Another category that has provided a large advantage is any home underdog coming off a road win; these squads have a record of 91-55 (62.3%). This group has lost a bit of steam over recent years, though, as the ATS record for 2001 was just 3-4 and the trend continues this season with a 4-5 ATS mark through Week 12.

NFL Home Underdogs of More Than 7 Points (2000-2002 seasons)
Date Team Opponent Line SU/ATS

09/10/00 Seattle Seahawks St Louis Rams 7½ L/W
10/01/00 Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens 8½ L/L
10/08/00 Cincinnati Bengals Tennessee Titans 10 L/W
10/22/00 Cincinnati Bengals Denver Broncos 10 W/W
11/05/00 Arizona Cardinals Washington Redskins 10 W/W
11/05/00 Cleveland Browns New York Giants 10 L/L
11/19/00 Chicago Bears Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 W/W
12/03/00 Carolina Panthers St Louis Rams 8 W/W
12/10/00 Cleveland Browns Philadelphia Eagles 14 L/W
12/17/00 Cleveland Browns Tennessee Titans 16 L/L
12/17/00 Arizona Cardinals Baltimore Ravens 15 L/W
12/17/00 Cincinnati Bengals Jacksonville Jaguars 10½ W/W

09/30/01 New England Patriots Indianapolis Colts 11½ W/W
10/08/01 Detroit Lions St Louis Rams 12½ L/L
10/21/01 Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens 7½ W/W
10/28/01 Washington Redskins New York Giants 7½ W/W
11/18/01 New England Patriots St Louis Rams 8½ L/W
12/02/01 Atlanta Falcons St Louis Rams 8 L/L
12/23/01 Carolina Panthers St Louis Rams 12½ L/W
12/30/01 Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers 8 W/W

09/08/02 Houston Texans Dallas Cowboys 8½ W/W
09/22/02 Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers 7½ L/W
09/22/02 Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts 10½ L/L
09/29/02 Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints 9 W/W
09/30/02 Baltimore Ravens Denver Broncos 9 W/W
10/27/02 Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 L/W
11/24/02 Arizona Cardinals Oakland Raiders 7½ L/L

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Historical Trends for College Football
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(based on games since 1995)
Sides: November 29, 2002

Arizona State at Arizona
Take Arizona State
Domination by visiting team 6-1 86%
Domination on the road by Arizona State 3-0 100%

Colorado at Nebraska
Take Colorado
Domination by Colorado 6-1 86%
Domination on the road by Colorado 3-0 100%

Louisiana State at Arkansas
Take Arkansas
Domination at home by Arkansas 3-0 100%

Texas A & M at Texas
Take Texas
Domination at home by Texas 3-0 100%

Sides: November 30, 2002

Florida at Florida State
Take Florida State
Domination by home team 6-1 86%
Domination at home by Florida State 3-0 100%

Kentucky at Tennessee
Take Tennessee
Domination at home by Tennessee 3-0 100%
Domination by favorite at Tennessee 3-0 100%

Nevada-Las Vegas at Colorado State
Take Nevada-Las Vegas
Domination by underdog 4-0 100%

Rutgers at Boston College
Take Boston College
Domination at home by Boston College 3-0 100%
Domination by favorite at Boston College 3-0 100%

West Virginia at Pittsburgh
Take Pittsburgh
Domination by favorite 6-1 86%
Domination by favorite at Pittsburgh 3-0 100%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Predicted College Football Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Thursday, November 28, 2002
MISSISSIPPI 34 Mississippi State 20

Friday, November 29, 2002
TEXAS 22 Texas A & M 10
ARKANSAS 16 Louisiana State 10 [@ Little Rock]
Arizona State 37 ARIZONA 33
NEBRASKA 27 Colorado 24

Saturday, November 30, 2002
PITTSBURGH 24 West Virginia 21
VIRGINIA TECH 31 Virginia 20
BOSTON COLLEGE 38 Rutgers 9
MARYLAND 38 Wake Forest 25
Miami-Florida 45 SYRACUSE 26
CINCINNATI 38 Alabama-Birmingham 12
U-C-F 33 Ohio 20
Oklahoma 41 OKLAHOMA STATE 24
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 38 Memphis 16
COLORADO STATE 34 Nevada-Las Vegas 17
Louisville 44 HOUSTON 28
SOUTHERN MISS 30 East Carolina 19
NEW MEXICO 34 Wyoming 25
MID TENNESSEE ST 45 Utah State 36
GEORGIA 21 Georgia Tech 14
TENNESSEE 29 Kentucky 25
MARSHALL 35 Ball State 24
TOLEDO 29 Bowling Green 24
Alabama 34 HAWAII 26
FLORIDA STATE 32 Florida 27
SOUTHERN CAL 20 Notre Dame 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Historical Trends for NFL
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
(sides based on games since 1994, totals based on games since 1996)
Sides: December 1, 2002

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Take Baltimore Ravens
Domination by Baltimore Ravens 13-4 76%

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Take Jacksonville Jaguars
Domination by home team 11-3 79%

Totals: December 1, 2002

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Take OVER
Domination by Overs 12-5 71%

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Take UNDER
Domination by Unders 11-3 79%
Domination by Unders at Jacksonville Jaguars 6-1 86%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Predicted NFL Scores based on Power Ratings
[These Are NOT Official Selections]
Thursday, November 28, 2002
New England Patriots 31 DETROIT LIONS 20
Washington Redskins 13 DALLAS COWBOYS 12

Sunday, December 1, 2002
Miami Dolphins 29 BUFFALO BILLS 23
GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 Chicago Bears 20
Baltimore Ravens 21 CINCINNATI BENGALS 16
CLEVELAND BROWNS 21 Carolina Panthers 16
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 22 Pittsburgh Steelers 21
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 31 Arizona Cardinals 25
Atlanta Falcons 30 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 25
NEW YORK GIANTS 21 Tennessee Titans 17
Denver Broncos 24 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 23
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 24 Houston Texans 14
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 26 St Louis Rams 20
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 26 Seattle Seahawks 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 22

Monday, December 2, 2002
OAKLAND RAIDERS 29 New York Jets 23

**BettorsChat** · 11-27-2002, 04:36 PM

THE RED SHEET FROM POINTWISE

89* COLORADO STATE
88* GEORGIA TECH
88* CINCINNATI
88* TCU
88* SANFRANSICO (NFL)
88* DENVER

NEAR CHOICES RATED 87*
NCAA: VIRGINIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE
NFL: GREEN BAY, TENNESSEE, OAKLAND

**BettorsChat** · 11-28-2002, 10:51 AM

bump

**BettorsChat** · 11-29-2002, 04:05 AM

bump

**BettorsChat** · 11-29-2002, 02:29 PM

top

**BettorsChat** · 11-29-2002, 05:24 PM

ATS WEEKLY REVIEW

ATS COMPUTER CORNER
Syracuse ( 15) over Miami
GA. Tech ( 4) over Georgia
Hawaii ( 7) over Alabama

TREND PLAYS OF THE WEEK
4* on the UNDER in the TAMPA BAY/NEW ORLENES Game
3* on CAROLINA over Cleveland

BEST BETS
USC over Notre Dame 44-20
VIRGINIA over Virginia Tech 24-17

PREFERRED PLAYS
UNDER in the Philly/Stl. Louis Game
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
OVER in the Pittsburgh/Jacksonville Game
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

ANGLE PLAYS OF THE WEEK
3* BOSTON COLLEGE over Rutgers
3* CINNCINNATI over UAB

**BettorsChat** · 11-29-2002, 05:24 PM

ROCKYS WINNERS CIRCLE

10* NEWSLETTER GAME OF THE WEEK
T.C.U. ov Memphis

BEST OF THE REST
GEORGIA TECH ov Georgia
CINCY ov Uab

NFL SUPER SYSTEM PLAY
CLEVELAND BROWNS

OVER-UNDER TOTALS
DALLAS - WASHINGTON UNDER 36.5
GIANTS - TENNESSEE UNDER
JACKSONVILLE - PITTSBURGH UNDER

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