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BOOOOM VERY NICE WEEKEND HITTING THE TOP PLAY ON OREGON! I HAVE NOW WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 16 WEEKS FROM CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* OREGON STATE +7.5 PROBABLE UPGRADE
1* OREGON +21 PROBABLE UPGRADE
Opinions: OLE MISS -2, COLORADO STATE -18
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ARIZONA ST (2 - 1) at OREGON ST (2 - 1)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 10:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Arizona State (2-1 SU, ATS) quickly put their disheartening 31-35 loss to LSU behind then and demolished Northwestern 52-21 Saturday as Sam Keller passed for four touchdowns and freshman Keegan Herring ran for 197 yards and scored twice. Keller was 20-of-31 for 409 yards and has now thrown for 1,448 yards and 15 TDs in his four career starts. In contrast, Oregon State ran into a buzz-saw last week as Louisville sawed a 63-27 win. Four fumbles, two interceptions and seven tackles for loss, including three sacks did in the previously unbeaten Beavers. QB Matt Moore finished 25-for-48 for 317 yards for OSU (2-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), which lost to a ranked opponent on the road for the seventh straight time. “We played good enough to win in the first quarter,” said Oregon State linebacker Trent Bray. “We just played awful after that.”
Anyone who saw Oregon State get dismembered by Louisville probably won’t give the Beavers a shot here. But this is a great spot for OSU to retrieve its season. Those disparate results last week have inflated this line by at least a field goal giving us great value with a solid home team. ASU's pass defense has been dissected by both LSU and Northwestern and, if there's one thing the Beavers can do it's throw the football. And listen up guys, talent aside, it just doesn't seem to matter who's good and who isn't in this series, the home team usually gets the money. Oregon State is a one-dimensional team for sure, and I know Arizona State is the better team here! But they are playing in a stadium that is feared by all members of the Pac Ten and with good reason as evidenced by the Beavers 21-7 spread record in home conference games the past seven years. Moreover, the home team has covered the last seven meetings between the teams and ASU is just 4-12 against the spread the last four seasons in Pac-10 road games. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven straight wins. OSU 13-3 ATS here in conference play with revenge. With look ahead USC on deck for Sun Devils cements it.
Forecast: Arizona St 31, Oregon St 38
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON STATE +7.5
USC (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Ahhh yes after hitting the top play on the Ducks last week I'm going right back to them this week. Amazingly, after last week, I have now won 14 out of the 16 bets I have placed on this team including last years GOY. As you will recall from last week writeup..."I feel like a crack addict every time I go to pull the trigger on this Ducks team. For whatever reason I always see a significant line value in their games and I cannot stop betting on this team." Well look again at the line value in this game. The line opened at USC -20 and now has gone up to -21.5.
I know the there is talk that USC may be the most dominant team in the modern history of college football. Quarterback Matt Leinhart, receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush and Dominique Byrd are all NFL-caliber players. Indeed, there are probably no fewer than 15 NFL-caliber players in the starting lineup. I know this! I also know that they are averaging 66.5 points per game. And who doesn’t know that they scored four touchdowns and netted 246 yards in a 90 second stretch in the first quarter against a reputable SEC team. I didn’t want to know, but unfortunately I found out, that USC is 15-0 SU, 10-5 ATS its last 15 games! So if I know all of this why oh why am I putting the Ducks in my pond this weekend?
Like USC, Oregon also happens to be undefeated. Overall, Oregon is 38-8 SU at home since 1998 and 17-6 to the line in its last 23 tries as an underdog, including a perfect 5-0 vs the spread when getting six or more points. Did you know that the Ducks have beaten Southern Cal four of the last five times they've met? How about the fact that when playing at home in the Duck Pond they are an incredible (53-6 SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more points. Moreover, despite posting a perfect season in 2004, the Trojans were just 1-3 ATS on the conference road. How about this wacky trend from Mark Lawrence...telling us to play against last years national champion (USC) in game 9 or less as a road favorite against a foe tat was home their last game if the host has won more then half of their previous games (Oregon). Perhaps Mr. Lawrence is smoking to much shit lately considering I had to read it like 5 times to understand it, but it is 15-1 angle (94%) since 1980. Joking aside, I set this line at -17 so from my perspective I’m getting a ton of value, and I really do think that the Ducks have the personnel to get this done.
Forecast: USC 34, Oregon 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON +21.5
WYOMING (2 - 1) at MISSISSIPPI (1 - 1)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Wyoming (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) keeps getting ats wins because of that terrific passing duo of QB Casey Bramlett to WR Jevon Bouknight. Bramlett passed for 267 yards and Bouknight had 132 yards receiving in last week's 29-28 upset win at Air Force. The Wyoming passing game is like clock work, and Cowboy RB Wynel Seldon has ran for 188 yards the last two games, providing excellent balance. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is in revenge mode after losing 37-32 in Laramie last year in a game in which the Rebels rolled up 567 yards but lost a handful of turnovers and didn’t exactly get favorable calls from the on-field officials. As I predicated last week, Ole Miss would get stomped by Vanderbilt last week. They failed to cover, though the offense was surprising with 276 passing yards in a 31-23 defeat.
Don’t be at all surprised if the Cowboys come out flat off of that crucial Mountain West win at Air Force last week, and with the conference home opener up next week, there is really nothing to inspire them in this long trip (especially since there is also not any novelty, having already traveled to Florida to get whipped by the Gators three weeks ago). Don’t also be surprised when you seem the Rebels played inspired as this contest will be the first home game under Louisiana native Ed Orgeron, and also the first time at home since the tragic consequences of Hurricane Katrina from the region. Those emotional advantages not only open the door for the Rebels to win, but to also win big! Many of the local papers are suggesting that coach Orgeron is calling his players “out” and expects his kids to give a full 60 minute effort. Given the “spot” the Cowboys are in this week I do not think they will offer much resistance. However, the fact that the Ole Miss QB Michael Spurlock (Finger) is doubtful only warrants a small opinion selection on this contest.
Forecast: Wyoming 24, Mississippi 28
OPINION SELECTION ON OLE MISS -2
NEVADA (1 - 1) at COLORADO ST (0 - 2)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 9:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Oh boy, I would not want to be the Wolfpack this weekend coming off that very emotional and intense state rivalry game with UNLV!Unfortunately for them, the Wolfpack will find an enraged flock of Rams still angry about last season’s performance and incensed by this year’s 0-2 start. Last week, the Pack caught UNLV at the right time as the Rebels were playing their third game in 13 days! UNLV was flat and the Wolfpack took advantage for a 22-14 win. Nevada was sky-high for that one, yet the new offense still sputtered more often than it fired. QB Jeff Rowe was efficient, but he'll think he's facing Washington State again, in Green & Gold this week. Meanwhile, Colorado State was in the perfect letdown situation last week. They were off a tough loss to in-state rival Colorado and had to travel to the Metrodome, where Glenn Mason's Gophers have become absolute bullies. The Rams have had an extra week to prepare and regroup. Don’t be at all surprised when we watch QB Holland putting up some big passing numbers and the running game should also find it easier sailing against this level of competition.
Nevada was 0- 5 both SU and ATS on the road last year, where they yielded an unsavory 38.5 PPG. Off a win that ended a five-year rivalry drought against a UNLV team in offensive transition, middling Nevada probably can’t sustain the good fortune against a desperate home side. And to pull the trigger on this selection, I’ll give you some additional ammo as this match-up fits into a very profitable angle. Teams playing their FIRST HOME GAME in Game 3 of the season tend to perform above the norm with the advantage of an extra week to prepare for the home opener. These teams are a solid 20-13 ATS since 1980. By putting them up against a foe that allows 12 or more points per game they improve to 18-8 ATS. The best situation occurs when that same foe is a .500 or better team, as our win-loss record improves to 15-5 ATS. Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) as it appears that 70% of the action on this game is on the CSU side. With the line going from -16.5 to -18 I still have to unfortunately keep this just an opinion selection. Nevertheless, Nevada will be overmatched and we will (hopefully) be over-joyed when Colorado State wins with ease.
Forecast: Colorado St 39, Nevada Reno 14
OPINION SELECTION ON COLORADO STATE -18
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* OREGON STATE +7.5 PROBABLE UPGRADE
1* OREGON +21 PROBABLE UPGRADE
Opinions: OLE MISS -2, COLORADO STATE -18
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ARIZONA ST (2 - 1) at OREGON ST (2 - 1)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 10:00 PM
vs Analysis
Arizona State (2-1 SU, ATS) quickly put their disheartening 31-35 loss to LSU behind then and demolished Northwestern 52-21 Saturday as Sam Keller passed for four touchdowns and freshman Keegan Herring ran for 197 yards and scored twice. Keller was 20-of-31 for 409 yards and has now thrown for 1,448 yards and 15 TDs in his four career starts. In contrast, Oregon State ran into a buzz-saw last week as Louisville sawed a 63-27 win. Four fumbles, two interceptions and seven tackles for loss, including three sacks did in the previously unbeaten Beavers. QB Matt Moore finished 25-for-48 for 317 yards for OSU (2-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), which lost to a ranked opponent on the road for the seventh straight time. “We played good enough to win in the first quarter,” said Oregon State linebacker Trent Bray. “We just played awful after that.”
Anyone who saw Oregon State get dismembered by Louisville probably won’t give the Beavers a shot here. But this is a great spot for OSU to retrieve its season. Those disparate results last week have inflated this line by at least a field goal giving us great value with a solid home team. ASU's pass defense has been dissected by both LSU and Northwestern and, if there's one thing the Beavers can do it's throw the football. And listen up guys, talent aside, it just doesn't seem to matter who's good and who isn't in this series, the home team usually gets the money. Oregon State is a one-dimensional team for sure, and I know Arizona State is the better team here! But they are playing in a stadium that is feared by all members of the Pac Ten and with good reason as evidenced by the Beavers 21-7 spread record in home conference games the past seven years. Moreover, the home team has covered the last seven meetings between the teams and ASU is just 4-12 against the spread the last four seasons in Pac-10 road games. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven straight wins. OSU 13-3 ATS here in conference play with revenge. With look ahead USC on deck for Sun Devils cements it.
Forecast: Arizona St 31, Oregon St 38
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON STATE +7.5
USC (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
Ahhh yes after hitting the top play on the Ducks last week I'm going right back to them this week. Amazingly, after last week, I have now won 14 out of the 16 bets I have placed on this team including last years GOY. As you will recall from last week writeup..."I feel like a crack addict every time I go to pull the trigger on this Ducks team. For whatever reason I always see a significant line value in their games and I cannot stop betting on this team." Well look again at the line value in this game. The line opened at USC -20 and now has gone up to -21.5.
I know the there is talk that USC may be the most dominant team in the modern history of college football. Quarterback Matt Leinhart, receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush and Dominique Byrd are all NFL-caliber players. Indeed, there are probably no fewer than 15 NFL-caliber players in the starting lineup. I know this! I also know that they are averaging 66.5 points per game. And who doesn’t know that they scored four touchdowns and netted 246 yards in a 90 second stretch in the first quarter against a reputable SEC team. I didn’t want to know, but unfortunately I found out, that USC is 15-0 SU, 10-5 ATS its last 15 games! So if I know all of this why oh why am I putting the Ducks in my pond this weekend?
Like USC, Oregon also happens to be undefeated. Overall, Oregon is 38-8 SU at home since 1998 and 17-6 to the line in its last 23 tries as an underdog, including a perfect 5-0 vs the spread when getting six or more points. Did you know that the Ducks have beaten Southern Cal four of the last five times they've met? How about the fact that when playing at home in the Duck Pond they are an incredible (53-6 SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more points. Moreover, despite posting a perfect season in 2004, the Trojans were just 1-3 ATS on the conference road. How about this wacky trend from Mark Lawrence...telling us to play against last years national champion (USC) in game 9 or less as a road favorite against a foe tat was home their last game if the host has won more then half of their previous games (Oregon). Perhaps Mr. Lawrence is smoking to much shit lately considering I had to read it like 5 times to understand it, but it is 15-1 angle (94%) since 1980. Joking aside, I set this line at -17 so from my perspective I’m getting a ton of value, and I really do think that the Ducks have the personnel to get this done.
Forecast: USC 34, Oregon 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON +21.5
WYOMING (2 - 1) at MISSISSIPPI (1 - 1)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
Wyoming (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) keeps getting ats wins because of that terrific passing duo of QB Casey Bramlett to WR Jevon Bouknight. Bramlett passed for 267 yards and Bouknight had 132 yards receiving in last week's 29-28 upset win at Air Force. The Wyoming passing game is like clock work, and Cowboy RB Wynel Seldon has ran for 188 yards the last two games, providing excellent balance. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is in revenge mode after losing 37-32 in Laramie last year in a game in which the Rebels rolled up 567 yards but lost a handful of turnovers and didn’t exactly get favorable calls from the on-field officials. As I predicated last week, Ole Miss would get stomped by Vanderbilt last week. They failed to cover, though the offense was surprising with 276 passing yards in a 31-23 defeat.
Don’t be at all surprised if the Cowboys come out flat off of that crucial Mountain West win at Air Force last week, and with the conference home opener up next week, there is really nothing to inspire them in this long trip (especially since there is also not any novelty, having already traveled to Florida to get whipped by the Gators three weeks ago). Don’t also be surprised when you seem the Rebels played inspired as this contest will be the first home game under Louisiana native Ed Orgeron, and also the first time at home since the tragic consequences of Hurricane Katrina from the region. Those emotional advantages not only open the door for the Rebels to win, but to also win big! Many of the local papers are suggesting that coach Orgeron is calling his players “out” and expects his kids to give a full 60 minute effort. Given the “spot” the Cowboys are in this week I do not think they will offer much resistance. However, the fact that the Ole Miss QB Michael Spurlock (Finger) is doubtful only warrants a small opinion selection on this contest.
Forecast: Wyoming 24, Mississippi 28
OPINION SELECTION ON OLE MISS -2
NEVADA (1 - 1) at COLORADO ST (0 - 2)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 9:00 PM
vs Analysis
Oh boy, I would not want to be the Wolfpack this weekend coming off that very emotional and intense state rivalry game with UNLV!Unfortunately for them, the Wolfpack will find an enraged flock of Rams still angry about last season’s performance and incensed by this year’s 0-2 start. Last week, the Pack caught UNLV at the right time as the Rebels were playing their third game in 13 days! UNLV was flat and the Wolfpack took advantage for a 22-14 win. Nevada was sky-high for that one, yet the new offense still sputtered more often than it fired. QB Jeff Rowe was efficient, but he'll think he's facing Washington State again, in Green & Gold this week. Meanwhile, Colorado State was in the perfect letdown situation last week. They were off a tough loss to in-state rival Colorado and had to travel to the Metrodome, where Glenn Mason's Gophers have become absolute bullies. The Rams have had an extra week to prepare and regroup. Don’t be at all surprised when we watch QB Holland putting up some big passing numbers and the running game should also find it easier sailing against this level of competition.
Nevada was 0- 5 both SU and ATS on the road last year, where they yielded an unsavory 38.5 PPG. Off a win that ended a five-year rivalry drought against a UNLV team in offensive transition, middling Nevada probably can’t sustain the good fortune against a desperate home side. And to pull the trigger on this selection, I’ll give you some additional ammo as this match-up fits into a very profitable angle. Teams playing their FIRST HOME GAME in Game 3 of the season tend to perform above the norm with the advantage of an extra week to prepare for the home opener. These teams are a solid 20-13 ATS since 1980. By putting them up against a foe that allows 12 or more points per game they improve to 18-8 ATS. The best situation occurs when that same foe is a .500 or better team, as our win-loss record improves to 15-5 ATS. Caveat Emptor (buyer beware) as it appears that 70% of the action on this game is on the CSU side. With the line going from -16.5 to -18 I still have to unfortunately keep this just an opinion selection. Nevertheless, Nevada will be overmatched and we will (hopefully) be over-joyed when Colorado State wins with ease.
Forecast: Colorado St 39, Nevada Reno 14
OPINION SELECTION ON COLORADO STATE -18
It's always noon somewhere! 
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