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BOOOOM VERY NICE WEEKEND HITTING THE TOP PLAY ON OREGON! I HAVE NOW WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 16 WEEKS FROM CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* OREGON +21 PROBABLE UPGRADE
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USC (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs 
Analysis
Ahhh yes after hitting the top play on the Ducks last week I'm going right back to them this week. Amazingly, after last week, I have now won 14 out of the 16 bets I have placed on this team including last years GOY. As you will recall from last week writeup..."I feel like a crack addict every time I go to pull the trigger on this Ducks team. For whatever reason I always see a significant line value in their games and I cannot stop betting on this team." Well look again at the line value in this game. The line opened at USC -20 and now has gone up to -21.5.
I know the there is talk that USC may be the most dominant team in the modern history of college football. Quarterback Matt Leinhart, receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush and Dominique Byrd are all NFL-caliber players. Indeed, there are probably no fewer than 15 NFL-caliber players in the starting lineup. I know this! I also know that they are averaging 66.5 points per game. And who doesn’t know that they scored four touchdowns and netted 246 yards in a 90 second stretch in the first quarter against a reputable SEC team. I didn’t want to know, but unfortunately I found out, that USC is 15-0 SU, 10-5 ATS its last 15 games! So if I know all of this why oh why am I putting the Ducks in my pond this weekend?
Like USC, Oregon also happens to be undefeated. Overall, Oregon is 38-8 SU at home since 1998 and 17-6 to the line in its last 23 tries as an underdog, including a perfect 5-0 vs the spread when getting six or more points. Did you know that the Ducks have beaten Southern Cal four of the last five times they've met? How about the fact that when playing at home in the Duck Pond they are an incredible (53-6 SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more points. Moreover, despite posting a perfect season in 2004, the Trojans were just 1-3 ATS on the conference road. How about this wacky trend from Mark Lawrence...telling us to play against last years national champion (USC) in game 9 or less as a road favorite against a foe tat was home their last game if the host has won more then half of their previous games (Oregon). Perhaps Mr. Lawrence is smoking to much shit lately considering I had to read it like 5 times to understand it, but it is 15-1 angle (94%) since 1980. Joking aside, I set this line at -17 so from my perspective I’m getting a ton of value, and I really do think that the Ducks have the personnel to get this done.
Forecast: USC 34, Oregon 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON +21.5
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
1* OREGON +21 PROBABLE UPGRADE
--------------------------------------------------
USC (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/24/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
Ahhh yes after hitting the top play on the Ducks last week I'm going right back to them this week. Amazingly, after last week, I have now won 14 out of the 16 bets I have placed on this team including last years GOY. As you will recall from last week writeup..."I feel like a crack addict every time I go to pull the trigger on this Ducks team. For whatever reason I always see a significant line value in their games and I cannot stop betting on this team." Well look again at the line value in this game. The line opened at USC -20 and now has gone up to -21.5.
I know the there is talk that USC may be the most dominant team in the modern history of college football. Quarterback Matt Leinhart, receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, Reggie Bush and Dominique Byrd are all NFL-caliber players. Indeed, there are probably no fewer than 15 NFL-caliber players in the starting lineup. I know this! I also know that they are averaging 66.5 points per game. And who doesn’t know that they scored four touchdowns and netted 246 yards in a 90 second stretch in the first quarter against a reputable SEC team. I didn’t want to know, but unfortunately I found out, that USC is 15-0 SU, 10-5 ATS its last 15 games! So if I know all of this why oh why am I putting the Ducks in my pond this weekend?
Like USC, Oregon also happens to be undefeated. Overall, Oregon is 38-8 SU at home since 1998 and 17-6 to the line in its last 23 tries as an underdog, including a perfect 5-0 vs the spread when getting six or more points. Did you know that the Ducks have beaten Southern Cal four of the last five times they've met? How about the fact that when playing at home in the Duck Pond they are an incredible (53-6 SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more points. Moreover, despite posting a perfect season in 2004, the Trojans were just 1-3 ATS on the conference road. How about this wacky trend from Mark Lawrence...telling us to play against last years national champion (USC) in game 9 or less as a road favorite against a foe tat was home their last game if the host has won more then half of their previous games (Oregon). Perhaps Mr. Lawrence is smoking to much shit lately considering I had to read it like 5 times to understand it, but it is 15-1 angle (94%) since 1980. Joking aside, I set this line at -17 so from my perspective I’m getting a ton of value, and I really do think that the Ducks have the personnel to get this done.
Forecast: USC 34, Oregon 28
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OREGON +21.5
It's always noon somewhere! 
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