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Saturday NCAA Football - 9/24 and Sunday NFL 9/25 (Pre Rita Picks!)
Guys,
I'm getting ready for Rita to make her way onto the Texas coast. Still not sure if I'm going to ride it out or take off, but leaning towards riding it out. But most likely I'm going to be without Internet access for a while, so here are my plays for Saturday and Sunday. I don't have anything for the games Thursday or Friday. Someone bump these up for me this weekend and hopefully I will be back on line by Monday at the latest!
NCAA Football
5 STAR: Michigan (-3) OVER WISCONSIN
Risking $550 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21/05
The Badgers are off to a 3-0 start in what was considered to be a rebuilding year, but this is the first time they are stepping up in class this season after playing Bowling Green, Temple and North Carolina to start this year. I felt that Michigan's top 5 ranking to start the season was way to high, but they are a top 20 team and should be able to get past the Badgers here. Michigan has won the last six meetings between these two teams and they have won 23 straight Big Ten openers. The Michigan offense struggled the first two games of the season before having a break out game with a 55-0 trouncing of Eastern Michigan last Saturday. I think the Wolverines offense will be effective in this game as well as Michigan's receivers should be able to blow past a struggling Badger pass defense that is allowing 265 passing yards per game and was torched by Bowling Greens passing game in their season opener. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin quarterback John Stocco has been very effective so far this season, but he has played against some of the worst defenses in the country and has not faced any kind of pressure. The best defense that the Badgers have faced is the North Carolina defense that is ranked #74 in the country and they held Wisconsin to only 14 points. Stocco and the Wisconsin offense are in for a very stiff test from the Michigan defense that is #1 in the Big Ten in total defense and #14 in the nation. They will rattle Stocco into making mistakes like he did last season when he completed only 52.6% of his passes and threw nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wisconsin has covered all three games this season, but the Badgers are only 1-5 against the spread after after three consecutive ****** as a favorite. Michigan used last weeks romp over Eastern Michigan as a tune up game and they are 3-1 against the spread after a win by 35 points or more and 2-0 against the spread the last two games after scoring 50 points or more in a game. I think we have some good value in this line and I'll lay the small number!
3 STAR: Purdue (+4) OVER MINNESOTA
Risking $330 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21/05
Minnesota is off to a nice 3-0 start this season, beating up on three teams that are a combined 1-7 with their power running game, but I think this is a very good match up for the Boilermakers to come away with the win. The Gophers are #1 in the nation in rushing offense, but that plays right into the strength of the Boilermaker's defense. Purdue is the only team in the country this season to return all of its defensive starters from 2004, and that could be a huge factor as that unit gave up the 15th fewest points of all 119 division one teams. Purdue was particularly tough against the run, allowing 105.3 yard per game, best in the Big Ten and they are #1 in the nation in rushing defense this season (all be it against weak competition) allowing only 18 yards per game. There is no doubt that the Gophers will get more than 18 yards in this game, but I don't see them being able to run wild. Minnesota will have to throw the ball to win this game, and I don't have confidence in the Gopher's quarterback Bryan Cupito being able to get that done. Cupito has only completed 52% of his passes this season against some very poor defenses. The task gets even tougher in this game against an excellent Purdue defense. This series has also been dominated by the Boilermakers. Purdue has won seven straight games against Minnesota and nine out of the last eleven. The two wins by Minnesota were by three points or less and Purdue is 9-2 against the spread in those games. I'll take the points here, but I expect Purdue to win this game!
3 STAR: VIRGINIA TECH (-11) OVER Georgia Tech
Risking $330 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21/05
I have been riding the Hokies this season and I will continue to do so here. The Virginia Tech defense has allowed only 16 combined points in their first three games, including a pair of back to back shutouts. The Hokies are allowing only 5.3 points per game on a meager 221 yards of total offense. The offense is loaded with Vick, Imoh and Humes in the backfield and a very good offensive line. This Virginia Tech team is even better than last years squad that defeated Georgia Tech on the road by the score of 34-20. The Yellow Jackets are off to a 3-0 start with an impressive win over Auburn on the road to start the season, but they were sloppy in a six point win against North Carolina and then beat UCONN last week without starting quarterback Reggie Ball. The Yellow Jackets again may be without starting quarterback Reggie Ball for this game. Ball went to the hospital with what was diagnosed to be viral meningitis last Saturday morning, and he missed the Yellow Jackets' 28-13 home triumph over Connecticut later that day. Ball was released from the hospital Monday afternoon and was cleared to practice, but he is questionable for Saturday's contest with the Hokies. The junior quarterback has started Georgia Tech's last 27 games. With Ball being out or at the least less than 100% will make it tough for Georgia Tech to do much on offense in this game. This may look like a lot of points, but the Hokies are 11-3 against the spread as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992. I'll eat the chalk with the Hokies here again!
2005/2006 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-1 (+4.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+2.40 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 2-0 (+4.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 3-1 (+1.90 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 11-5 (+12.80 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $1280
NFL
5 STAR: INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) OVER Cleveland
Risking $550 to win $500
Line from BetJamacia on 9/20/05
Its time for the Colts offense to get rolling and I look for them to do just that in this game. Indianapolis is off to a 2-0 start and their offense has done very little, its been the defense that has carried the load. The offense should be able to get on track this week as they host Cleveland. The Browns defense is second to the last in the NFL after their first two games against Cincinnati and Green Bay. Against a struggling Green Bay offense last week and a quarterback in Brett Favre that suddenly looks very old, they still allowed 24 points and 452 yards. We should see the Colts offense of last season come alive against this Cleveland defensive unit. On the other side of the ball, the Browns are not an offensive juggernaut, even thought Green Bay might have made them look like one. Trent Dilfer had an 80 yard touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards and a game sealing 62 yard pass to Steve Heiden late in the fourth quarter. These were not so much great offensive plays, but they were bad defensive plays. These were short passes that bad coverage and missed tackles turned into huge touchdown passes. The way the Colts defense is playing, I don't see this happening in this game. I give credit to Cleveland to capitalizing on the mistakes, but there is no doubt that Green Bay beat themselves in this game as the Browns were out gained 452 yards to 391 yards by Green Bay and ran 20 less offensive plays than the Packers. Cleveland got the win last week even though they allowed 452 yards to Green Bay, but they are only 5-18 against the spread now the last 23 times they have allowed 400 or more total yards, a number that the Colts should easily get to in this game. Cleveland is also 0-3 against the spread the last three seasons after a win by six points or less and just 1-2 against the spread the last three time they have been a double digit underdog. Don't think that they Colts won't be up for this game either, Indy is 9-1 against the spread after a win against a division rival and Tony Dungy teams are 14-3 against the spread after a game in which they scored 14 points or less. I'll eat the chalk here, this should be a blowout!
3 STAR: Tampa Bay (-3)(-$120) OVER GREEN BAY
Buying the 1/2 point - Risking $360 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21
From a purely technical perspective, I hate to make this play. If you are looking for a lot of trends to back up this selection you will not find them. In fact most of the trends point to playing the Packers in this spot. I hate going against a divisional home underdog that is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight tries as a home dog and 11-0 straight up against Tampa Bay at home since 1992. But Vegas has set this line for a reason, Tampa Bay is a much better team. Green Bay has looked horrible in their first two games against Detroit and Cleveland, now they get to face the top rated defense in the league. The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing very well to start this season. Their defense has been incredible with dominating performances against Minnesota and Buffalo. I see them shutting down the Packers in this game as well. The Packers offense has not been good. They only managed 3 points in week one at Detroit and struggled for most of the game to score against the Browns. Brett Favre has not been sharp throwing four interceptions in the first two games and it looks as if age is catching up to him. Ahman Green has only averaged 54 yards per game in the first two, and I don't see him getting on track against a Buc's defense that stuffs the run. The Tampa Bay offense has been solid, lead by rookie running back Cadillac Williams who after two games is leading the NFL in rushing. I just don't see the Pack winning this game, I'll lay the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-0 (+10.00 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.60 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.10 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 5-3 (+9.30 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $930
I'm getting ready for Rita to make her way onto the Texas coast. Still not sure if I'm going to ride it out or take off, but leaning towards riding it out. But most likely I'm going to be without Internet access for a while, so here are my plays for Saturday and Sunday. I don't have anything for the games Thursday or Friday. Someone bump these up for me this weekend and hopefully I will be back on line by Monday at the latest!
NCAA Football
5 STAR: Michigan (-3) OVER WISCONSIN
Risking $550 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21/05
The Badgers are off to a 3-0 start in what was considered to be a rebuilding year, but this is the first time they are stepping up in class this season after playing Bowling Green, Temple and North Carolina to start this year. I felt that Michigan's top 5 ranking to start the season was way to high, but they are a top 20 team and should be able to get past the Badgers here. Michigan has won the last six meetings between these two teams and they have won 23 straight Big Ten openers. The Michigan offense struggled the first two games of the season before having a break out game with a 55-0 trouncing of Eastern Michigan last Saturday. I think the Wolverines offense will be effective in this game as well as Michigan's receivers should be able to blow past a struggling Badger pass defense that is allowing 265 passing yards per game and was torched by Bowling Greens passing game in their season opener. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin quarterback John Stocco has been very effective so far this season, but he has played against some of the worst defenses in the country and has not faced any kind of pressure. The best defense that the Badgers have faced is the North Carolina defense that is ranked #74 in the country and they held Wisconsin to only 14 points. Stocco and the Wisconsin offense are in for a very stiff test from the Michigan defense that is #1 in the Big Ten in total defense and #14 in the nation. They will rattle Stocco into making mistakes like he did last season when he completed only 52.6% of his passes and threw nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wisconsin has covered all three games this season, but the Badgers are only 1-5 against the spread after after three consecutive ****** as a favorite. Michigan used last weeks romp over Eastern Michigan as a tune up game and they are 3-1 against the spread after a win by 35 points or more and 2-0 against the spread the last two games after scoring 50 points or more in a game. I think we have some good value in this line and I'll lay the small number!
3 STAR: Purdue (+4) OVER MINNESOTA
Risking $330 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21/05
Minnesota is off to a nice 3-0 start this season, beating up on three teams that are a combined 1-7 with their power running game, but I think this is a very good match up for the Boilermakers to come away with the win. The Gophers are #1 in the nation in rushing offense, but that plays right into the strength of the Boilermaker's defense. Purdue is the only team in the country this season to return all of its defensive starters from 2004, and that could be a huge factor as that unit gave up the 15th fewest points of all 119 division one teams. Purdue was particularly tough against the run, allowing 105.3 yard per game, best in the Big Ten and they are #1 in the nation in rushing defense this season (all be it against weak competition) allowing only 18 yards per game. There is no doubt that the Gophers will get more than 18 yards in this game, but I don't see them being able to run wild. Minnesota will have to throw the ball to win this game, and I don't have confidence in the Gopher's quarterback Bryan Cupito being able to get that done. Cupito has only completed 52% of his passes this season against some very poor defenses. The task gets even tougher in this game against an excellent Purdue defense. This series has also been dominated by the Boilermakers. Purdue has won seven straight games against Minnesota and nine out of the last eleven. The two wins by Minnesota were by three points or less and Purdue is 9-2 against the spread in those games. I'll take the points here, but I expect Purdue to win this game!
3 STAR: VIRGINIA TECH (-11) OVER Georgia Tech
Risking $330 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21/05
I have been riding the Hokies this season and I will continue to do so here. The Virginia Tech defense has allowed only 16 combined points in their first three games, including a pair of back to back shutouts. The Hokies are allowing only 5.3 points per game on a meager 221 yards of total offense. The offense is loaded with Vick, Imoh and Humes in the backfield and a very good offensive line. This Virginia Tech team is even better than last years squad that defeated Georgia Tech on the road by the score of 34-20. The Yellow Jackets are off to a 3-0 start with an impressive win over Auburn on the road to start the season, but they were sloppy in a six point win against North Carolina and then beat UCONN last week without starting quarterback Reggie Ball. The Yellow Jackets again may be without starting quarterback Reggie Ball for this game. Ball went to the hospital with what was diagnosed to be viral meningitis last Saturday morning, and he missed the Yellow Jackets' 28-13 home triumph over Connecticut later that day. Ball was released from the hospital Monday afternoon and was cleared to practice, but he is questionable for Saturday's contest with the Hokies. The junior quarterback has started Georgia Tech's last 27 games. With Ball being out or at the least less than 100% will make it tough for Georgia Tech to do much on offense in this game. This may look like a lot of points, but the Hokies are 11-3 against the spread as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992. I'll eat the chalk with the Hokies here again!
2005/2006 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-1 (+4.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+2.40 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 2-0 (+4.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 3-1 (+1.90 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 11-5 (+12.80 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $1280
NFL
5 STAR: INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) OVER Cleveland
Risking $550 to win $500
Line from BetJamacia on 9/20/05
Its time for the Colts offense to get rolling and I look for them to do just that in this game. Indianapolis is off to a 2-0 start and their offense has done very little, its been the defense that has carried the load. The offense should be able to get on track this week as they host Cleveland. The Browns defense is second to the last in the NFL after their first two games against Cincinnati and Green Bay. Against a struggling Green Bay offense last week and a quarterback in Brett Favre that suddenly looks very old, they still allowed 24 points and 452 yards. We should see the Colts offense of last season come alive against this Cleveland defensive unit. On the other side of the ball, the Browns are not an offensive juggernaut, even thought Green Bay might have made them look like one. Trent Dilfer had an 80 yard touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards and a game sealing 62 yard pass to Steve Heiden late in the fourth quarter. These were not so much great offensive plays, but they were bad defensive plays. These were short passes that bad coverage and missed tackles turned into huge touchdown passes. The way the Colts defense is playing, I don't see this happening in this game. I give credit to Cleveland to capitalizing on the mistakes, but there is no doubt that Green Bay beat themselves in this game as the Browns were out gained 452 yards to 391 yards by Green Bay and ran 20 less offensive plays than the Packers. Cleveland got the win last week even though they allowed 452 yards to Green Bay, but they are only 5-18 against the spread now the last 23 times they have allowed 400 or more total yards, a number that the Colts should easily get to in this game. Cleveland is also 0-3 against the spread the last three seasons after a win by six points or less and just 1-2 against the spread the last three time they have been a double digit underdog. Don't think that they Colts won't be up for this game either, Indy is 9-1 against the spread after a win against a division rival and Tony Dungy teams are 14-3 against the spread after a game in which they scored 14 points or less. I'll eat the chalk here, this should be a blowout!
3 STAR: Tampa Bay (-3)(-$120) OVER GREEN BAY
Buying the 1/2 point - Risking $360 to win $300
Line from BetJamacia on 9/21
From a purely technical perspective, I hate to make this play. If you are looking for a lot of trends to back up this selection you will not find them. In fact most of the trends point to playing the Packers in this spot. I hate going against a divisional home underdog that is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight tries as a home dog and 11-0 straight up against Tampa Bay at home since 1992. But Vegas has set this line for a reason, Tampa Bay is a much better team. Green Bay has looked horrible in their first two games against Detroit and Cleveland, now they get to face the top rated defense in the league. The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing very well to start this season. Their defense has been incredible with dominating performances against Minnesota and Buffalo. I see them shutting down the Packers in this game as well. The Packers offense has not been good. They only managed 3 points in week one at Detroit and struggled for most of the game to score against the Browns. Brett Favre has not been sharp throwing four interceptions in the first two games and it looks as if age is catching up to him. Ahman Green has only averaged 54 yards per game in the first two, and I don't see him getting on track against a Buc's defense that stuffs the run. The Tampa Bay offense has been solid, lead by rookie running back Cadillac Williams who after two games is leading the NFL in rushing. I just don't see the Pack winning this game, I'll lay the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 2-0 (+10.00 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.60 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.10 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 5-3 (+9.30 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $930
It's always noon somewhere! 
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