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2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (no line) 27 Indianapolis 19
Some of the luster has come off a Redskins’ rookie quarterback Patrick Ramsey, who followed his great debut against the Titans with two losses to good teams New Orleans and Green Bay. Ramsey is averaging a better than average 7.2 yards per attempt, but he holds onto the ball too long and has taken 14 sacks in 3 games, leading to an average of just 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.0 yppp on defense). Ramsey won’t have to be responsible for as much of the Skins’ offense in this game, as his solid rushing attack (4.2 ypr against teams that allow 4.1 ypr) should prosper against a Colts’ defense that has surrendered 4.8 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense). Indy has been particularly generous in recent games, giving up 5.5 ypr in their last 3 games against teams that average 4.2 ypr. The Colts also have a weak pass rush, averaging just 1.8 sacks against teams that allow an average of 2.6 sacks, so Ramsey should have a much better day throwing the ball with extra time to find open receivers. The Colts’ offense is not nearly as potent as it has been in recent years, as they have averaged just 5.3 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that combines to allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense. Indy has averaged more than 3.7 ypr in only 1 game all season, and Peyton Manning (6.4 yppp against teams that allow 5.9 yppp) isn’t likely to have his normal solid outing against a good Washington pass defense that has yielded just 5.7 yppp this season (to teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense). My mathematical model picks this game even, but Washington qualifies in a very strong 181-92-13 ATS contrary indicator and a 79-28-6 ATS home underdog angle. The Redskins are only 2-4, but all 4 of their losses have been to good teams (Phil, SF, NO, and GB) and the Colts, whose 4 wins have all come against teams that are currently .500 or worse (and 7-17 overall), are not in that class. Indy’s only spread win this year has come against expansion Houston, so the Colts are clearly overrated and I’ll take advantage of that fact today.
WASHINGTON (no line) 27 Indianapolis 19
Some of the luster has come off a Redskins’ rookie quarterback Patrick Ramsey, who followed his great debut against the Titans with two losses to good teams New Orleans and Green Bay. Ramsey is averaging a better than average 7.2 yards per attempt, but he holds onto the ball too long and has taken 14 sacks in 3 games, leading to an average of just 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that allow 6.0 yppp on defense). Ramsey won’t have to be responsible for as much of the Skins’ offense in this game, as his solid rushing attack (4.2 ypr against teams that allow 4.1 ypr) should prosper against a Colts’ defense that has surrendered 4.8 ypr this season (to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense). Indy has been particularly generous in recent games, giving up 5.5 ypr in their last 3 games against teams that average 4.2 ypr. The Colts also have a weak pass rush, averaging just 1.8 sacks against teams that allow an average of 2.6 sacks, so Ramsey should have a much better day throwing the ball with extra time to find open receivers. The Colts’ offense is not nearly as potent as it has been in recent years, as they have averaged just 5.3 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that combines to allow an average of 5.2 yppl on defense. Indy has averaged more than 3.7 ypr in only 1 game all season, and Peyton Manning (6.4 yppp against teams that allow 5.9 yppp) isn’t likely to have his normal solid outing against a good Washington pass defense that has yielded just 5.7 yppp this season (to teams that average 5.9 yppp on offense). My mathematical model picks this game even, but Washington qualifies in a very strong 181-92-13 ATS contrary indicator and a 79-28-6 ATS home underdog angle. The Redskins are only 2-4, but all 4 of their losses have been to good teams (Phil, SF, NO, and GB) and the Colts, whose 4 wins have all come against teams that are currently .500 or worse (and 7-17 overall), are not in that class. Indy’s only spread win this year has come against expansion Houston, so the Colts are clearly overrated and I’ll take advantage of that fact today.