Tweet
BOOOOM NICE 4-2 DAY YESTERDAY HITTING THE TOP PLAY WITH OREGON COVING THE NUMBER AS EXPECTED. IF ONLY OKLAHOMA DIDN'T TURN THE BALL OVER 7 TIMES WE WOULD HAVE HAD A HUGE DAY. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET ABOUT 1/2 OF WHAT I NORMALLY BET THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS OF THE SEASON. I WILL ONLY BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $100/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* CINCINNATI -3
2* NEW YORK JETS -6
1* CAROLINA +3.5
1* BUFFALO +3
--------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
Cincinnati is an up-and-coming team under fiery head coach Marvin Lewis. Minnesota is a team you NEVER know what to expect from in-over-his-head coach Mike Tice. The Vikings (0-1 SU/ATS) looked lost in a 24-13 home defeat to the Bucs, their first in a long while without Randy Moss. One major problem was run defense. The defense was 28th in the NFL in 2004, so they beefed up the defensive line with first round draft pick Erasmus James (Wisconsin) and free agent DT Pat Williams (Bills), yet Tampa Bay ran for 146 yards in the opener, 4.7 yards per carry! QB Daunte Culpepper threw 39 TDs with 11 picks last season, but already has no TDs and 3 picks. Their only TD was by the defense and many of the Vikings were in disbelief after Sunday’s loss. The Bengals (1-0 SU/ATS) got a cupcake and took advantage in a 27-13 win over the Browns. Offense is the strength of the team, with QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson (126 yards last week, 4.8 ypc), and WRs in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals had a 3-2 edge in turnover differential and are 10-1 in games under coach Marvin Lewis in which they have that advantage. The Bengals are 3-1 ATS the last 4 against Minnesota at home. The defense played well at home last season, allowing 21 ppg and Cincy is 7-2 “under” the total its last 9 home games. Minnesota has a lot of offensive talent, and this should be a very interesting high scoring matchup.
Minnesota offensive line is hurting, eft tackle McKinnie is not 100%, and pro bowl caliber center Birk is out for the year. Also there are some injuries to amazingly each of the Vikings running backs, so I do see see the Vikings able to establish a consistent rushing threat. The DB's will play up on the receivers because they don't respect their deep speed. On the other hand Bengals matchup well across the board - they should be able to run the ball effectively, which will help open up the downfield passing game. Carson Palmer has the better pass protection.
Forecast: CIN Bengals 27, MIN Vikings 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON CINCINNATI -3
MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 4:15 PM
vs 
Analysis
An interesting situation for these divisional rivals. The Dolphins manhandled the Broncos 34-10 while the error-prone Jets were manhandled by the Kansas City Chiefs 27-7 despite picking up over 333 passing yards. Miami QB Gus Ferotte led a creative offense (despite a patchwork offensive line) that used all kinds of tricks and threw for 275 yards. And the Miami defense played with fire. The game was 20 minutes old before Denver's Jake Plummer completed a pass on his seventh attempt, and the Broncos' lone touchdown was set up by a fumbled punt. Miami mounted a goal-line stand in the second quarter to protect a 6-0 lead, stopping the Broncos five consecutive times after they had a first down at the 3. The Miami offensive line didn't yield a sack and helped the Dolphins account for 151 rushing yards, including 61 on an end-around to receiver Chris Chambers. However the Dolphins have been no where nearly as successful on the road. Last year in the first half of the season they allowed just 61 points in four home games while allowing 101 in their first four road games.
Living in NYC all the talk is over whether there may be something wrong with Jets quarterback Chad Pennington. You read the Post, the Daily News, Newsday and everybody is already calling for this guys head…and we are only one game into the season! The criticism however is well deserved. Pennington had five fumbles last week after fumbling just five times all last year. He missed on many throws and of course the “speculation” is that his arm strength and accuracy are affected by the off season shoulder surgery. Pennington said all during preseason that "he was 85% and hoped to be 100% by opening day." He clearly was not a full strength this game. The blitz protection was poor (three sacks) and Coles dropped two sure TD passes.
It’s the home debut, and they will be far better prepared to give their semi-deluded seat-fillers a taste of the improved offensive production that was promised with the catapulting of Paul Hackett, and the insertion of Mike Heimerdinger as new offensive co-coordinator. Surely, it seemed everyone and his brother was on the Jets last week. This week, the exact opposite is going to happen, the public perception is that the Jets are bad and Miami is good. Last weeks blowouts were good for us because it created so nice value in this line. Indeed, early betting numbers are showing that 61% of the bets being placed are on Miami. In the NFL particularly NEVER look at last weeks results as an indication of what will happen this week. I look for the Jets to be on fire after that humiliation in Missouri, not that they need any extra motivation to play the Dolphins as they always seem to play their best when Miami green is on the other side of the field (New York has won 11 of the last 14 with 12 ats WINS in the mix). However, here is the one trend that’s scares the hell out of me and I want to make you aware of it before you pull the trigger on this selection. According to Mark Lawrence, the Miami Dolphins are 18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 5 < points in their first two games of the season. Regardless of that, I like the line value, and I think that this scenario is perfect for a Jet’s cover. J-E-T-S…JETS, JETS, JETS!
Forecast: NYJ Jets 28, MIA Dolphins 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON THE NEW YORK JETS -6
NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 1:00 PM
vs 
A rematch of Super Bowl 38 two years ago. The Patriots have had some extra time to prepare for this game, after Thursday's opening win over the Raiders, 30-20. But, he Patriots showed some vulnerability in their opening day victory against the Raiders, especially on special teams allowing both an extra point and punt to be blocked. They also gave up their longest defensive play in five years. So there are chinks in the Patriots armor beginning to show. They will need that tough run defense against Carolina's ground-oriented attack. Meanwhile, Carolina QB Jake Delhomme threw two interceptions and the Panthers fumbled twice Sunday as they fell to the Saints 23-20. RB Stephen Davis ran for just 81 yards as New Orleans controlled the game most of the way. Lets not forget, that the Panthers averaged nearly 30 points during the second half of last season, have their key injured players healthy and are thirsting for revenge from their 32-29 loss to the Patriots in the 2003 Super Bowl. Tailbacks Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster are two of these injured players. They should be able to run on a Patriots defense that no longer has respected linebackers Ted Johnson and Tedy Bruschi. Granted, Steve Smith isn’t Randy Moss. But hes an explosive force who is dangerous catching passes and returning kicks, while the powerful Davis can hurt the Patriots inside.
New England is just 8-8-1 ATS on road grass the past three years. When getting points, Carolina is 14-2 (87 percent) ATS the last two years and 19-8 (70 percent) ATS the past 27 times. There has been no better underdog. This is the first of four tough road games for the Patriots in the next five weeks. Moreover, 16-win teams (from the previous year) are 3-18 ATS in their initial road outing the following season, including 1-15 ATS when taking on a team that won seven or more games the previous season. Additionally, Game 2 home teams, playing off a division home game, are 18-2 ATS when facing non-division foes. Take the generous points.
Forecast: NE Patriots 17, CAR Panthers 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CAROLINA +3.5
BUFFALO (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 0)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 1:00PM
vs
Analysis
Wow -- will DEFENSE be on display this game! This match up features two strong defenses that make the other side work for real estate, force turnovers and earn favorable field position for their respective offenses. Both teams are also coming off winning performances a week ago. This was exemplified in Week 1 when Buffalo scored 9 of 22 points on drives of 10 yards or less and had a +5 TO ratio, five sacks and limiting Houston to 120 yards which was similar to some of their wins in 2004. The Bills have new QB J.P. Losman (17-of-28 for 170 yards and a touchdown and with an 89.9 quarterback rating), and he led scoring drives on each of Buffalo's first five possessions in a 22-7 win over the Houston Texans. The Bills led 12-0 four minutes into the second quarter before the Texans gained their initial first down. Buffalo has had the No. 2 defense in the NFL in each of the last two seasons, and this year's unit looks even better! And speaking of defense, the Bucs terrorized Daunte Culpepper forcing five turnovers, leading to a hard fought 24-13 victory over the Vikings. Tight end Alex Smith caught two touchdown passes and fellow rookie Carnell "Cadillac" Williams finished with 148 yards on 27 carries, including a 71-yard touchdown run with 1:23 remaining that sealed it. QB Brian Griese led Tampa Bay on two long touchdown drives in the second quarter to take a 17-7 halftime lead. He finished 18-for-29 for 213 yards with two TDs and two INTs. WR Joey Galloway caught five passes for 97 yards. However, lets be honest here, the Vikings’ lousy defense made the Bucs offense look better than it actually is. Excluding a 71-yd TD run, Tampa had just 3 of 11 drives go for more than 10 yards and only averaged a miserable 2 yars per carry!
With both teams facing a big step up in opposing defenses, the ball will be that much tougher to move down field. When it does, it will be with the run. Tampa allowed just 8 TDs on the ground last year so they will challenge Bills QB J.P. Losman (like most other defenses) to prove he can beat them. So I do not think there is any question here what the game plan on both sides will be for this game. Run, Run Run. As mentioned above and worth noting again, if you discount the 74 yard Williams run at the end of the game then Tampa only averaged two yards per carry on the ground. Given the situational matchups in this game I simply think Buffalo will have greater success then Tampa running the football. So lets go to our friend the trend to see if we can get some additional help. Here’s something to consider, NFL underdogs who gain more yards rushing than their favored opponents are an incredible 764-233-27 against the spread, a win ratio of 76.6%, since 1980. Moreover, the Bills are 9-1 ATS in Game 2’s the last ten season and 5-1-1 ATS in the NFC road of late. Home teams in Game 2 off a Game 1 road dog win are a measly 7-17-2 ATS when taking on a foe off a SU & ATS loss. But you know what...fuck the trends...simply having the better team getting a few points is all I need to pull the trigger.
Forecast: BUF Bills 17, TB Bucs 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO +3
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* CINCINNATI -3
2* NEW YORK JETS -6
1* CAROLINA +3.5
1* BUFFALO +3
--------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 1:00 PM
vs Cincinnati is an up-and-coming team under fiery head coach Marvin Lewis. Minnesota is a team you NEVER know what to expect from in-over-his-head coach Mike Tice. The Vikings (0-1 SU/ATS) looked lost in a 24-13 home defeat to the Bucs, their first in a long while without Randy Moss. One major problem was run defense. The defense was 28th in the NFL in 2004, so they beefed up the defensive line with first round draft pick Erasmus James (Wisconsin) and free agent DT Pat Williams (Bills), yet Tampa Bay ran for 146 yards in the opener, 4.7 yards per carry! QB Daunte Culpepper threw 39 TDs with 11 picks last season, but already has no TDs and 3 picks. Their only TD was by the defense and many of the Vikings were in disbelief after Sunday’s loss. The Bengals (1-0 SU/ATS) got a cupcake and took advantage in a 27-13 win over the Browns. Offense is the strength of the team, with QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson (126 yards last week, 4.8 ypc), and WRs in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals had a 3-2 edge in turnover differential and are 10-1 in games under coach Marvin Lewis in which they have that advantage. The Bengals are 3-1 ATS the last 4 against Minnesota at home. The defense played well at home last season, allowing 21 ppg and Cincy is 7-2 “under” the total its last 9 home games. Minnesota has a lot of offensive talent, and this should be a very interesting high scoring matchup.
Minnesota offensive line is hurting, eft tackle McKinnie is not 100%, and pro bowl caliber center Birk is out for the year. Also there are some injuries to amazingly each of the Vikings running backs, so I do see see the Vikings able to establish a consistent rushing threat. The DB's will play up on the receivers because they don't respect their deep speed. On the other hand Bengals matchup well across the board - they should be able to run the ball effectively, which will help open up the downfield passing game. Carson Palmer has the better pass protection.
Forecast: CIN Bengals 27, MIN Vikings 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON CINCINNATI -3
MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 4:15 PM
vs Analysis
An interesting situation for these divisional rivals. The Dolphins manhandled the Broncos 34-10 while the error-prone Jets were manhandled by the Kansas City Chiefs 27-7 despite picking up over 333 passing yards. Miami QB Gus Ferotte led a creative offense (despite a patchwork offensive line) that used all kinds of tricks and threw for 275 yards. And the Miami defense played with fire. The game was 20 minutes old before Denver's Jake Plummer completed a pass on his seventh attempt, and the Broncos' lone touchdown was set up by a fumbled punt. Miami mounted a goal-line stand in the second quarter to protect a 6-0 lead, stopping the Broncos five consecutive times after they had a first down at the 3. The Miami offensive line didn't yield a sack and helped the Dolphins account for 151 rushing yards, including 61 on an end-around to receiver Chris Chambers. However the Dolphins have been no where nearly as successful on the road. Last year in the first half of the season they allowed just 61 points in four home games while allowing 101 in their first four road games.
Living in NYC all the talk is over whether there may be something wrong with Jets quarterback Chad Pennington. You read the Post, the Daily News, Newsday and everybody is already calling for this guys head…and we are only one game into the season! The criticism however is well deserved. Pennington had five fumbles last week after fumbling just five times all last year. He missed on many throws and of course the “speculation” is that his arm strength and accuracy are affected by the off season shoulder surgery. Pennington said all during preseason that "he was 85% and hoped to be 100% by opening day." He clearly was not a full strength this game. The blitz protection was poor (three sacks) and Coles dropped two sure TD passes.
It’s the home debut, and they will be far better prepared to give their semi-deluded seat-fillers a taste of the improved offensive production that was promised with the catapulting of Paul Hackett, and the insertion of Mike Heimerdinger as new offensive co-coordinator. Surely, it seemed everyone and his brother was on the Jets last week. This week, the exact opposite is going to happen, the public perception is that the Jets are bad and Miami is good. Last weeks blowouts were good for us because it created so nice value in this line. Indeed, early betting numbers are showing that 61% of the bets being placed are on Miami. In the NFL particularly NEVER look at last weeks results as an indication of what will happen this week. I look for the Jets to be on fire after that humiliation in Missouri, not that they need any extra motivation to play the Dolphins as they always seem to play their best when Miami green is on the other side of the field (New York has won 11 of the last 14 with 12 ats WINS in the mix). However, here is the one trend that’s scares the hell out of me and I want to make you aware of it before you pull the trigger on this selection. According to Mark Lawrence, the Miami Dolphins are 18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 5 < points in their first two games of the season. Regardless of that, I like the line value, and I think that this scenario is perfect for a Jet’s cover. J-E-T-S…JETS, JETS, JETS!
Forecast: NYJ Jets 28, MIA Dolphins 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON THE NEW YORK JETS -6
NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 1:00 PM
vs A rematch of Super Bowl 38 two years ago. The Patriots have had some extra time to prepare for this game, after Thursday's opening win over the Raiders, 30-20. But, he Patriots showed some vulnerability in their opening day victory against the Raiders, especially on special teams allowing both an extra point and punt to be blocked. They also gave up their longest defensive play in five years. So there are chinks in the Patriots armor beginning to show. They will need that tough run defense against Carolina's ground-oriented attack. Meanwhile, Carolina QB Jake Delhomme threw two interceptions and the Panthers fumbled twice Sunday as they fell to the Saints 23-20. RB Stephen Davis ran for just 81 yards as New Orleans controlled the game most of the way. Lets not forget, that the Panthers averaged nearly 30 points during the second half of last season, have their key injured players healthy and are thirsting for revenge from their 32-29 loss to the Patriots in the 2003 Super Bowl. Tailbacks Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster are two of these injured players. They should be able to run on a Patriots defense that no longer has respected linebackers Ted Johnson and Tedy Bruschi. Granted, Steve Smith isn’t Randy Moss. But hes an explosive force who is dangerous catching passes and returning kicks, while the powerful Davis can hurt the Patriots inside.
New England is just 8-8-1 ATS on road grass the past three years. When getting points, Carolina is 14-2 (87 percent) ATS the last two years and 19-8 (70 percent) ATS the past 27 times. There has been no better underdog. This is the first of four tough road games for the Patriots in the next five weeks. Moreover, 16-win teams (from the previous year) are 3-18 ATS in their initial road outing the following season, including 1-15 ATS when taking on a team that won seven or more games the previous season. Additionally, Game 2 home teams, playing off a division home game, are 18-2 ATS when facing non-division foes. Take the generous points.
Forecast: NE Patriots 17, CAR Panthers 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CAROLINA +3.5
BUFFALO (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 0)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 1:00PM
vsAnalysis
Wow -- will DEFENSE be on display this game! This match up features two strong defenses that make the other side work for real estate, force turnovers and earn favorable field position for their respective offenses. Both teams are also coming off winning performances a week ago. This was exemplified in Week 1 when Buffalo scored 9 of 22 points on drives of 10 yards or less and had a +5 TO ratio, five sacks and limiting Houston to 120 yards which was similar to some of their wins in 2004. The Bills have new QB J.P. Losman (17-of-28 for 170 yards and a touchdown and with an 89.9 quarterback rating), and he led scoring drives on each of Buffalo's first five possessions in a 22-7 win over the Houston Texans. The Bills led 12-0 four minutes into the second quarter before the Texans gained their initial first down. Buffalo has had the No. 2 defense in the NFL in each of the last two seasons, and this year's unit looks even better! And speaking of defense, the Bucs terrorized Daunte Culpepper forcing five turnovers, leading to a hard fought 24-13 victory over the Vikings. Tight end Alex Smith caught two touchdown passes and fellow rookie Carnell "Cadillac" Williams finished with 148 yards on 27 carries, including a 71-yard touchdown run with 1:23 remaining that sealed it. QB Brian Griese led Tampa Bay on two long touchdown drives in the second quarter to take a 17-7 halftime lead. He finished 18-for-29 for 213 yards with two TDs and two INTs. WR Joey Galloway caught five passes for 97 yards. However, lets be honest here, the Vikings’ lousy defense made the Bucs offense look better than it actually is. Excluding a 71-yd TD run, Tampa had just 3 of 11 drives go for more than 10 yards and only averaged a miserable 2 yars per carry!
With both teams facing a big step up in opposing defenses, the ball will be that much tougher to move down field. When it does, it will be with the run. Tampa allowed just 8 TDs on the ground last year so they will challenge Bills QB J.P. Losman (like most other defenses) to prove he can beat them. So I do not think there is any question here what the game plan on both sides will be for this game. Run, Run Run. As mentioned above and worth noting again, if you discount the 74 yard Williams run at the end of the game then Tampa only averaged two yards per carry on the ground. Given the situational matchups in this game I simply think Buffalo will have greater success then Tampa running the football. So lets go to our friend the trend to see if we can get some additional help. Here’s something to consider, NFL underdogs who gain more yards rushing than their favored opponents are an incredible 764-233-27 against the spread, a win ratio of 76.6%, since 1980. Moreover, the Bills are 9-1 ATS in Game 2’s the last ten season and 5-1-1 ATS in the NFC road of late. Home teams in Game 2 off a Game 1 road dog win are a measly 7-17-2 ATS when taking on a foe off a SU & ATS loss. But you know what...fuck the trends...simply having the better team getting a few points is all I need to pull the trigger.
Forecast: BUF Bills 17, TB Bucs 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BUFFALO +3
Comment