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COMMING OFF A MISERABLE WEEK IN NCAA BUT GREAT IN NFL LETS SEE IF WE CAN DO BETTER THIS WEEK. I THINK SATURDAY WAS ONE OF THOSE WEEKENDS WHERE THE FAVORITES JUST ROLL THEIR COMPETITION. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT BE A REPEAT OF LAST SEASON WHEN I LOST THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS THEN DOMINATED BY WINNING THE NEXT 14. THATS WHY I HAD DECIDED TO REDUCE MY BETTING PER UNIT. ARMY JUMPED OUT TO A 7-0 LEAD THE BC SCORED THE NEXT FOUR TDS IN ABOUT 8 SECONDS, AND THE ARIZONA STATE PLAY. I THINK A CLOSE FRIEND OF MINE SAID IT BEST WHEN HE SAID "I'VE BEEN WATCHING FOOTBALL FOR 45 YEARS AND NEVER SAW BACK-TO-BACK POSSESSION THAT RESULTED IN A BLOCKED FIELD GOAL FOR A TD FOLLOWED BY A BLOCK PUNT FOR A TD. IT HAD TO BE DEVINE INTERVENTION IN THE END." WELL ENOUGH OF LAST WEEKS SUMMARY, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET ABOUT 1/2 OF WHAT I NORMALLY BET THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS OF THE SEASON. I WILL ONLY BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $100/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* OKLAHOMA +7
1* RICE +41 ADDED
1* ARMY +6
Opinions: VANDERBILT -3
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OKLAHOMA (1 - 1) at UCLA (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 3:30 PM
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Analysis
The opening two performances by Oklahoma are far from impressive. Yet, should we be that surprised by the play and results considering the Sooners lost TEN players to the NFL this past spring, including five in the first two rounds? Although depleted a bit, the talent is still here, especially in the backfield with running back Adrian Peterson, who ran over and through a Tulsa defense last week for 220 yards and three touchdowns. That was enough to overlook any numbers from freshman QB Rhett Bomar who happened to be a miserable 5-for-13 for 42 yards passing with two interceptions. It was far from what was expected from Bomar, who arrived as the top-rated quarterback in the country last year and was given a shot after junior Paul Thompson was ineffective against TCU.
Meanwhile, UCLA (2-0, 2-0 ATS) has been very impressive in opening two victories. Offense is clicking behind another superb running back Maurice Drew. UCLA's Drew Olson also threw for three touchdowns a to help UCLA open a big early lead, and the Bruins went on to a 63-21 victory over Rice on Saturday night. The Bruins’ special teams have also been impressive, with Drew returning a pair of punts for touchdowns in each of their opening victories against San Diego State and Rice. But as poor as Oklahoma has looked, they are not the Mountain West or Western Athletic Conference.
UCLA is a superb 20-8 ATS at home off Back to back SU wins and there is no question that the Bruins need to make a statement here. However, unfortunately for them so does Oklahoma. If this game was played at the begging of the season, Oklahoma would have been a touchdown favorite in this game but now of course they are a full TD dog. That’s a 14 point swing and is the really a 14 point differential in Talent among these two clubs? There's still no consistency in the Sooner passing attack and that will be a problem against the Bruins who have enough offense to put up multiple touchdowns. However, UCLA let Rice grind out 200 yards on the ground so look for big numbers from Peterson, keeping this a shorter game, keeping this one inside the generous number. Also keep in mind that the last time the Sooners took points in a regular season tussle was 33 games ago against Texas and they won the game outright.
Forecast: UCLA 24, Oklahoma 27
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OKLAHOMA +7
BAYLOR (2 - 0) at ARMY (0 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 3:00 PM
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Analysis
Does anybody think Baylor now (2-0) is a BCS team? The odd makers must think so with this line. Seriously Baylor has not started off a year at 3-0 since Moby Dick was a minnow. Baylor had lost 24 consecutive road games straight-up before breaking through against SMU in its opener, but asking it to win two on the road in three weeks is asking a bit much. I know its tough to follow but so far, Baylor beat SMU 28-23, the same SMU team that just upset TCU, and that was the TCU team that won at Oklahoma. Regardless, as mentioned above you can clearly that the Bears are getting some respect from odds makers and from Joe public. Now I know, and you should know that Baylor really isn't very good or fancy. They run the ball with a two-headed system of Paul Mosley (150 yards, 3.8 ypc) and Brandon Whitaker (131 yards), while QB Shawn Bell has 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Baylor is averaging 176 rush yards and we the game plan will be simple, run right at the Army defense that got mauled by Boston College last week, in a 44-7 loss, a game which I had selected in last weeks card. Army allowed 175 rush yards, 289 passing. But lets put things in perspective, Baylor doesn't have that kind of speed or power and should not even be mention in the same breath as Boston College. This is the start of a 4-game home stand for Army, and don't forget they averaged 24 ppg at home last season, going 3-2 ATS. The Black Knights formulated an impressive opening drive last week, moving 80 yards on 13 plays to claim an early 7-0 lead, but the Eagles responded by scoring on their next four possessions. Army does have a good offense/ground game with QB Zac Dahman and RB Carlton Jones, and they will be able to move the ball on a suspect Baylor 'D'. Army's all-time record in home openers stands at 94-18-3 (that’s 83.9%) and coach Bobby Ross will have the boys ready.
Forecast: Army 30, Baylor 27
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARMY +6
RICE (0 - 1) at TEXAS (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 7:00 PM
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Analysis
I know, I know…a week removed from one of my worst point spread selections ever with Rice last week, I’m jumping right back on them. Amazingly Rice gave up a whopping 578 yards of offense at UCLA and allowed UCLA’s reserve plays to put 21 point up in the 4th quarter. Lets pray that’s an anomaly as I’m backing them again. One thing is for sure thought this week, we will certainly see a lot of running in this match-up, as both teams are terrific on the ground (well Texas does; I “think” Rice does as well). You might not see any passes, either. In last weeks defeat, fullback John Wall was Rice's leading rusher, with four carries for 58 yards. Armstrong was 5-of-8 for 32 yards in the air, and carried six times for 25 yards. Pretty poor numbers I know. In contrast to Rice, the Longhorns are on a stampede high following Saturday's 25-22 win over Ohio State. Playing like Michael Vick, Vince Young finished 18-for-29 and ran 20 times for 76 yards including a 24-yard go-ahead touchdown to Limas Sweed with 2:37 left.
After that intense effort in Columbus, you could excuse Texas for not being too excited about playing a team it has beaten 20 of the last 21 times they met. With all the running going on in this game I cannot ognore this spread of a whopping 41 points. If Rice is able to control the clock, get “some” first downs then this game will be an easy cover. Naturally, if Rice can’t control the clock, that obviously means more chances for Texas to score, and lets be honest we all know they will score on this defense. Since we are getting 41 points, were are already ahead by five touchdowns before the game starts so if the Owls can muster up just a few scores Texas would have to get 50 to cover. I think Rice's spread option can cause assignment problems, especially if an opponent isn't taking the game seriously. Texas scored a 35-13 win a year ago (as a 32-point favorite) and might not be overly motivated here. Rice is well coached under Ken Hatfield and 8-5 ATS on the road the last 13, plus 18-8-1 ATS its last 27 as an underdog! Lets just take all these points this week, not watch the game and hope Rice is better then they were last week. After all they cannot play any worse.
Forecast: Texas 44, Rice 13
PLAY 1* UNIT ON RICE +41
MISSISSIPPI (1 - 0) at VANDERBILT (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 12:30 PM
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Analysis
It's amazing what returning experience can do for a program. Vanderbilt has been the big surprise of the SEC, even getting a big upset last week. Now they take on a rebuilding Ole Miss club (1-0 SU/ATS) that has had extra time to prepare. Mississippi got a win in its opener, 10-6 at Memphis, but it was a horribly played game. Mississippi had the week off after its 10-6 victory against Memphis to try to work out the kinks in the offense. New head coach Ed Orgeron was the recruiting coordinator at Southern California prior to getting this job, and still has a lot of work to do because he desperately needs to recruit himself a quarterback. Their current QB, Michael Spurlock is no Eli Manning, and that's putting it mildly. Both Spurlock and his counterpart Robert Lane are unable to throw the ball downfield. Instead, they are settling for dink and dunk passes to underneath routes that don't stretch the defense. Without a deep threat, defenses are going to be able to stack it up against Mississippi all year long. That probably explains why the Rebels managed only 55 rushing yards (1.5 yards per carry) and only 262 total yards against a rebuilding Memphis defense, and one that struggled against the run last year. Note, this is the second straight road game for Ole Miss and the team is 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS its last 6 road contests.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt (aka the “smart kids”) is riding high, opening the season with road wins at Wake Forest and Arkansas (28-24). The key to this season is a lot of returning players, including senior QB Jay Cutler. Cutler was the story last week, with 24-of-45 passing for 279 yards and 2 TDs in the comeback win at Arkansas. Vanderbilt's win will be known for the Commodores' late drive, one that spanned 76 yards and 10 plays, and it was executed in 1:56. The “smart kids” have all kinds of positive momentum, winning the close games in sharp contrast to last year, when they lost five games by a grand total of 15 points, four times blowing fourth quarter leads. With that in mind, I'll side with the better offense and the more experienced quarterback at home. Cutler, a legitimate National Football League prospect, is the key and with a big game. Vandy should have little trouble controlling a terrible Mississippi offense, and Vandy has the better quarterback and a lot of confidence right now. Indeed this should be a higher rated selection but I’m keeping this only as an opinion selection as Mississippi’s RB Alan Abrams (4.9 ypc LY), missed last weeks Memphis game due to 1-game suspension, and could be in for a huge game considering the run “D” is the Commidors weakness. Plus Mark Lawrence is telling us that Vandy is 2-31 SU in SEC play.
Forecast: Ole Miss 17, Vanderbilt 24
OPINION SELECTION ON VANDERBILT -3
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* OKLAHOMA +7
1* RICE +41 ADDED
1* ARMY +6
Opinions: VANDERBILT -3
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OKLAHOMA (1 - 1) at UCLA (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
The opening two performances by Oklahoma are far from impressive. Yet, should we be that surprised by the play and results considering the Sooners lost TEN players to the NFL this past spring, including five in the first two rounds? Although depleted a bit, the talent is still here, especially in the backfield with running back Adrian Peterson, who ran over and through a Tulsa defense last week for 220 yards and three touchdowns. That was enough to overlook any numbers from freshman QB Rhett Bomar who happened to be a miserable 5-for-13 for 42 yards passing with two interceptions. It was far from what was expected from Bomar, who arrived as the top-rated quarterback in the country last year and was given a shot after junior Paul Thompson was ineffective against TCU.
Meanwhile, UCLA (2-0, 2-0 ATS) has been very impressive in opening two victories. Offense is clicking behind another superb running back Maurice Drew. UCLA's Drew Olson also threw for three touchdowns a to help UCLA open a big early lead, and the Bruins went on to a 63-21 victory over Rice on Saturday night. The Bruins’ special teams have also been impressive, with Drew returning a pair of punts for touchdowns in each of their opening victories against San Diego State and Rice. But as poor as Oklahoma has looked, they are not the Mountain West or Western Athletic Conference.
UCLA is a superb 20-8 ATS at home off Back to back SU wins and there is no question that the Bruins need to make a statement here. However, unfortunately for them so does Oklahoma. If this game was played at the begging of the season, Oklahoma would have been a touchdown favorite in this game but now of course they are a full TD dog. That’s a 14 point swing and is the really a 14 point differential in Talent among these two clubs? There's still no consistency in the Sooner passing attack and that will be a problem against the Bruins who have enough offense to put up multiple touchdowns. However, UCLA let Rice grind out 200 yards on the ground so look for big numbers from Peterson, keeping this a shorter game, keeping this one inside the generous number. Also keep in mind that the last time the Sooners took points in a regular season tussle was 33 games ago against Texas and they won the game outright.
Forecast: UCLA 24, Oklahoma 27
PLAY 2* UNITS ON OKLAHOMA +7
BAYLOR (2 - 0) at ARMY (0 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 3:00 PM
vs Analysis
Does anybody think Baylor now (2-0) is a BCS team? The odd makers must think so with this line. Seriously Baylor has not started off a year at 3-0 since Moby Dick was a minnow. Baylor had lost 24 consecutive road games straight-up before breaking through against SMU in its opener, but asking it to win two on the road in three weeks is asking a bit much. I know its tough to follow but so far, Baylor beat SMU 28-23, the same SMU team that just upset TCU, and that was the TCU team that won at Oklahoma. Regardless, as mentioned above you can clearly that the Bears are getting some respect from odds makers and from Joe public. Now I know, and you should know that Baylor really isn't very good or fancy. They run the ball with a two-headed system of Paul Mosley (150 yards, 3.8 ypc) and Brandon Whitaker (131 yards), while QB Shawn Bell has 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Baylor is averaging 176 rush yards and we the game plan will be simple, run right at the Army defense that got mauled by Boston College last week, in a 44-7 loss, a game which I had selected in last weeks card. Army allowed 175 rush yards, 289 passing. But lets put things in perspective, Baylor doesn't have that kind of speed or power and should not even be mention in the same breath as Boston College. This is the start of a 4-game home stand for Army, and don't forget they averaged 24 ppg at home last season, going 3-2 ATS. The Black Knights formulated an impressive opening drive last week, moving 80 yards on 13 plays to claim an early 7-0 lead, but the Eagles responded by scoring on their next four possessions. Army does have a good offense/ground game with QB Zac Dahman and RB Carlton Jones, and they will be able to move the ball on a suspect Baylor 'D'. Army's all-time record in home openers stands at 94-18-3 (that’s 83.9%) and coach Bobby Ross will have the boys ready.
Forecast: Army 30, Baylor 27
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARMY +6
RICE (0 - 1) at TEXAS (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 7:00 PM
vs Analysis
I know, I know…a week removed from one of my worst point spread selections ever with Rice last week, I’m jumping right back on them. Amazingly Rice gave up a whopping 578 yards of offense at UCLA and allowed UCLA’s reserve plays to put 21 point up in the 4th quarter. Lets pray that’s an anomaly as I’m backing them again. One thing is for sure thought this week, we will certainly see a lot of running in this match-up, as both teams are terrific on the ground (well Texas does; I “think” Rice does as well). You might not see any passes, either. In last weeks defeat, fullback John Wall was Rice's leading rusher, with four carries for 58 yards. Armstrong was 5-of-8 for 32 yards in the air, and carried six times for 25 yards. Pretty poor numbers I know. In contrast to Rice, the Longhorns are on a stampede high following Saturday's 25-22 win over Ohio State. Playing like Michael Vick, Vince Young finished 18-for-29 and ran 20 times for 76 yards including a 24-yard go-ahead touchdown to Limas Sweed with 2:37 left.
After that intense effort in Columbus, you could excuse Texas for not being too excited about playing a team it has beaten 20 of the last 21 times they met. With all the running going on in this game I cannot ognore this spread of a whopping 41 points. If Rice is able to control the clock, get “some” first downs then this game will be an easy cover. Naturally, if Rice can’t control the clock, that obviously means more chances for Texas to score, and lets be honest we all know they will score on this defense. Since we are getting 41 points, were are already ahead by five touchdowns before the game starts so if the Owls can muster up just a few scores Texas would have to get 50 to cover. I think Rice's spread option can cause assignment problems, especially if an opponent isn't taking the game seriously. Texas scored a 35-13 win a year ago (as a 32-point favorite) and might not be overly motivated here. Rice is well coached under Ken Hatfield and 8-5 ATS on the road the last 13, plus 18-8-1 ATS its last 27 as an underdog! Lets just take all these points this week, not watch the game and hope Rice is better then they were last week. After all they cannot play any worse.
Forecast: Texas 44, Rice 13
PLAY 1* UNIT ON RICE +41
MISSISSIPPI (1 - 0) at VANDERBILT (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/17/2005 12:30 PM
vs Analysis
It's amazing what returning experience can do for a program. Vanderbilt has been the big surprise of the SEC, even getting a big upset last week. Now they take on a rebuilding Ole Miss club (1-0 SU/ATS) that has had extra time to prepare. Mississippi got a win in its opener, 10-6 at Memphis, but it was a horribly played game. Mississippi had the week off after its 10-6 victory against Memphis to try to work out the kinks in the offense. New head coach Ed Orgeron was the recruiting coordinator at Southern California prior to getting this job, and still has a lot of work to do because he desperately needs to recruit himself a quarterback. Their current QB, Michael Spurlock is no Eli Manning, and that's putting it mildly. Both Spurlock and his counterpart Robert Lane are unable to throw the ball downfield. Instead, they are settling for dink and dunk passes to underneath routes that don't stretch the defense. Without a deep threat, defenses are going to be able to stack it up against Mississippi all year long. That probably explains why the Rebels managed only 55 rushing yards (1.5 yards per carry) and only 262 total yards against a rebuilding Memphis defense, and one that struggled against the run last year. Note, this is the second straight road game for Ole Miss and the team is 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS its last 6 road contests.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt (aka the “smart kids”) is riding high, opening the season with road wins at Wake Forest and Arkansas (28-24). The key to this season is a lot of returning players, including senior QB Jay Cutler. Cutler was the story last week, with 24-of-45 passing for 279 yards and 2 TDs in the comeback win at Arkansas. Vanderbilt's win will be known for the Commodores' late drive, one that spanned 76 yards and 10 plays, and it was executed in 1:56. The “smart kids” have all kinds of positive momentum, winning the close games in sharp contrast to last year, when they lost five games by a grand total of 15 points, four times blowing fourth quarter leads. With that in mind, I'll side with the better offense and the more experienced quarterback at home. Cutler, a legitimate National Football League prospect, is the key and with a big game. Vandy should have little trouble controlling a terrible Mississippi offense, and Vandy has the better quarterback and a lot of confidence right now. Indeed this should be a higher rated selection but I’m keeping this only as an opinion selection as Mississippi’s RB Alan Abrams (4.9 ypc LY), missed last weeks Memphis game due to 1-game suspension, and could be in for a huge game considering the run “D” is the Commidors weakness. Plus Mark Lawrence is telling us that Vandy is 2-31 SU in SEC play.
Forecast: Ole Miss 17, Vanderbilt 24
OPINION SELECTION ON VANDERBILT -3
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