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BOOOOM HUGE DAY LAST WEEKEND IN THE NFL GOING A NICE 4-1 GETTING MOST OF WHAT I LOST ON SATURDAY'S DEBACLE. AS PREDICTED THE BILLS DOMINTED THE WHOLE GAME FROM START TO FINISH AND INDEED SCORED ON THER FIRST 4 POSSESSIONS. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I RELEASE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET ABOUT 1/2 OF WHAT I NORMALLY BET THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS OF THE SEASON. I WILL ONLY BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $100/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* NEW YORK JETS -6
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MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 4:15 PM
vs 
Analysis
An interesting situation for these divisional rivals. The Dolphins manhandled the Broncos 34-10 while the error-prone Jets were manhandled by the Kansas City Chiefs 27-7 despite picking up over 333 passing yards. Miami QB Gus Ferotte led a creative offense (despite a patchwork offensive line) that used all kinds of tricks and threw for 275 yards. And the Miami defense played with fire. The game was 20 minutes old before Denver's Jake Plummer completed a pass on his seventh attempt, and the Broncos' lone touchdown was set up by a fumbled punt. Miami mounted a goal-line stand in the second quarter to protect a 6-0 lead, stopping the Broncos five consecutive times after they had a first down at the 3. The Miami offensive line didn't yield a sack and helped the Dolphins account for 151 rushing yards, including 61 on an end-around to receiver Chris Chambers. However the Dolphins have been no where nearly as successful on the road. Last year in the first half of the season they allowed just 61 points in four home games while allowing 101 in their first four road games.
Living in NYC all the talk is over whether there may be something wrong with Jets quarterback Chad Pennington. You read the Post, the Daily News, Newsday and everybody is already calling for this guys head…and we are only one game into the season! The criticism however is well deserved. Pennington had five fumbles last week after fumbling just five times all last year. He missed on many throws and of course the “speculation” is that his arm strength and accuracy are affected by the off season shoulder surgery. Pennington said all during preseason that "he was 85% and hoped to be 100% by opening day." He clearly was not a full strength this game. The blitz protection was poor (three sacks) and Coles dropped two sure TD passes.
It’s the home debut, and they will be far better prepared to give their semi-deluded seat-fillers a taste of the improved offensive production that was promised with the catapulting of Paul Hackett, and the insertion of Mike Heimerdinger as new offensive co-coordinator. Surely, it seemed everyone and his brother was on the Jets last week. This week, the exact opposite is going to happen, the public perception is that the Jets are bad and Miami is good. Last weeks blowouts were good for us because it created so nice value in this line. Indeed, early betting numbers are showing that 61% of the bets being placed are on Miami. In the NFL particularly NEVER look at last weeks results as an indication of what will happen this week. I look for the Jets to be on fire after that humiliation in Missouri, not that they need any extra motivation to play the Dolphins as they always seem to play their best when Miami green is on the other side of the field (New York has won 11 of the last 14 with 12 ATS wins in the mix). However, here is the one trend that’s scares the hell out of me and I want to make you aware of it before you pull the trigger on this selection. According to Mark Lawrence, the Miami Dolphins are 18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 5 < points in their first two games of the season. Regardless of that, I like the line value, and I think that this scenario is perfect for a Jet’s cover. J-E-T-S…JETS, JETS, JETS!
Forecast: NYJ Jets 28, MIA Dolphins 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON THE NEW YORK JETS -6
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS:
2* NEW YORK JETS -6
--------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/18/2005 4:15 PM
vs Analysis
An interesting situation for these divisional rivals. The Dolphins manhandled the Broncos 34-10 while the error-prone Jets were manhandled by the Kansas City Chiefs 27-7 despite picking up over 333 passing yards. Miami QB Gus Ferotte led a creative offense (despite a patchwork offensive line) that used all kinds of tricks and threw for 275 yards. And the Miami defense played with fire. The game was 20 minutes old before Denver's Jake Plummer completed a pass on his seventh attempt, and the Broncos' lone touchdown was set up by a fumbled punt. Miami mounted a goal-line stand in the second quarter to protect a 6-0 lead, stopping the Broncos five consecutive times after they had a first down at the 3. The Miami offensive line didn't yield a sack and helped the Dolphins account for 151 rushing yards, including 61 on an end-around to receiver Chris Chambers. However the Dolphins have been no where nearly as successful on the road. Last year in the first half of the season they allowed just 61 points in four home games while allowing 101 in their first four road games.
Living in NYC all the talk is over whether there may be something wrong with Jets quarterback Chad Pennington. You read the Post, the Daily News, Newsday and everybody is already calling for this guys head…and we are only one game into the season! The criticism however is well deserved. Pennington had five fumbles last week after fumbling just five times all last year. He missed on many throws and of course the “speculation” is that his arm strength and accuracy are affected by the off season shoulder surgery. Pennington said all during preseason that "he was 85% and hoped to be 100% by opening day." He clearly was not a full strength this game. The blitz protection was poor (three sacks) and Coles dropped two sure TD passes.
It’s the home debut, and they will be far better prepared to give their semi-deluded seat-fillers a taste of the improved offensive production that was promised with the catapulting of Paul Hackett, and the insertion of Mike Heimerdinger as new offensive co-coordinator. Surely, it seemed everyone and his brother was on the Jets last week. This week, the exact opposite is going to happen, the public perception is that the Jets are bad and Miami is good. Last weeks blowouts were good for us because it created so nice value in this line. Indeed, early betting numbers are showing that 61% of the bets being placed are on Miami. In the NFL particularly NEVER look at last weeks results as an indication of what will happen this week. I look for the Jets to be on fire after that humiliation in Missouri, not that they need any extra motivation to play the Dolphins as they always seem to play their best when Miami green is on the other side of the field (New York has won 11 of the last 14 with 12 ATS wins in the mix). However, here is the one trend that’s scares the hell out of me and I want to make you aware of it before you pull the trigger on this selection. According to Mark Lawrence, the Miami Dolphins are 18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 5 < points in their first two games of the season. Regardless of that, I like the line value, and I think that this scenario is perfect for a Jet’s cover. J-E-T-S…JETS, JETS, JETS!
Forecast: NYJ Jets 28, MIA Dolphins 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON THE NEW YORK JETS -6
It's always noon somewhere! 
vs
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