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Sunday NFL Week 2 - 9/18
Here is my full card for Sunday's week 2 NFL action. I will bump it up again sunday morning....
NFL
5 STAR: TAMPA BAY (-2) OVER Buffalo
Risking $550 to win $500
The Bills won their opener 22-7 against the Texans and Buffalo quarterback JP Losman had a pretty nice day throwing for 170 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL start, but I don't think things will be as pretty this week. The Bills offense will be up against a Bucs defense that totally dominated the Minnesota Vikings and pro bowl quarterback Daunte Culpepper on the road at Minnesota. Losman will be making his first road start in the NFL, and he will be facing a much tougher defense than he saw from the Texans last week. Houston only sacked Losman once last week and he had plenty of time to pick apart the Texans secondary. The main target was Phillip Buchanan. Houston made a mistake by releasing the aging Aaron Glenn (who made the game winning interception last week for Dallas) in favor of the younger Buchanan. Buchanan was regularly burned last season in Oakland and he was picked on by the Bills in week one. Tampa Bay will not allow Losman to be comfortable this week and the Tampa Bay pass defense is very good as they showed by picking off Culpepper three time last week. The Bills setup their passing by running Willis McGahee and setting up play action. I see the Bucs stuffing the run here and forcing Losman into making plays with his arm and in turn making mistakes. We all know how a young quarterback can look like a pro bowler one week and a guy that should be holding the clip board the next. The Bills 22-7 win also looks very impressive on paper, but it should have been by a much wider margin. Buffalo was on Houston's side of the field all day, but had to settle for field goals most of the day. This won't cut it against Tampa Bay. On the other side of the ball the Bills defense is very good as well. But I like the veteran quarterback Brian Griese and the workhorse Cadillac Williams at running back to do enough for Tampa to cover this small number. I can see the Bucs cashing in some easy points on Buffalo turnovers in this one. This is also a nice technical spot for the Bucs, as Tampa Bay is 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings with Buffalo and favorites in the first two weeks of the season that closed out the previous year with three or more straight losses against the spread are 39-14 against the number. I like the Bucs here!
3 STAR: CHICAGO (+2) OVER Detroit
Risking $330 to win $300
The Bears defense played very well last week at Washington, holding the Skins to just 9 points on three field goals and they had the Bears in position to win the game, but a late interception by rookie Kyle Orton cost them the win. Detroit won their opener 17-3 at home against Brett Favre and the Packers, but I don't like them heading into Chicago, especially as a road favorite. The Lions are 1-3 straight up after a division win the last three years and the Lions are also 0-6 straight up as a road favorite their last six chances in this roll. As a road favorite of less than seven points they are a dismal 2-12 against the spread their last fourteen tries. I see another low scoring game here and I give the advantage to the Bears, especially being at home, outdoors on grass where the Lions have also struggled. I think Orton will have a nice game here at home doing enough for the Bears to win, but it will ultimately be the Chicago defense that makes the difference. I'll take the points against a team that has lost 26 of their last 29 road games!
3 STAR: OAKLAND (+2) OVER Kansas City
Risking $330 to win $300
The Chiefs had an impressive win over the Jets to open their season, while the Raiders traveled to New England and were handed a 10 point loss, but I like the Raiders to bounce back here. Oakland got off to a quick 7-0 start against the Pats with a very impressive opening drive, but could not hold onto the lead. The Raider defense could not slow down the Pats early in the game, but made a nice adjustment in the second half keeping the Raiders in the game. Kerry Collins was hot at the beginning of the game, but then struggled the rest of the way. He still managed to throw for some nice numbers and I look for him to have a big night against a KC defense that is banged up with injuries to their best cover corner Patrick Surtain (concussion) and defensive end Ryan Simms (foot). If Surtain is not in this lineup Randy Moss will have a monster night, and he might have one even if Surtain is covering him. I found it a bit odd that this game opened at a pick, considering the fact that KC is off of a win and Oakland is off of a loss and the Chiefs have dominated this series as of late winning five out of the last six meetings. The public has put their money on Kansas City to make this line move, but I'm going the other way. Take the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 1-0 (+5.00 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.30 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-1 (-1.10 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 2-2 (+3.60 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $360
NFL
5 STAR: TAMPA BAY (-2) OVER Buffalo
Risking $550 to win $500
The Bills won their opener 22-7 against the Texans and Buffalo quarterback JP Losman had a pretty nice day throwing for 170 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL start, but I don't think things will be as pretty this week. The Bills offense will be up against a Bucs defense that totally dominated the Minnesota Vikings and pro bowl quarterback Daunte Culpepper on the road at Minnesota. Losman will be making his first road start in the NFL, and he will be facing a much tougher defense than he saw from the Texans last week. Houston only sacked Losman once last week and he had plenty of time to pick apart the Texans secondary. The main target was Phillip Buchanan. Houston made a mistake by releasing the aging Aaron Glenn (who made the game winning interception last week for Dallas) in favor of the younger Buchanan. Buchanan was regularly burned last season in Oakland and he was picked on by the Bills in week one. Tampa Bay will not allow Losman to be comfortable this week and the Tampa Bay pass defense is very good as they showed by picking off Culpepper three time last week. The Bills setup their passing by running Willis McGahee and setting up play action. I see the Bucs stuffing the run here and forcing Losman into making plays with his arm and in turn making mistakes. We all know how a young quarterback can look like a pro bowler one week and a guy that should be holding the clip board the next. The Bills 22-7 win also looks very impressive on paper, but it should have been by a much wider margin. Buffalo was on Houston's side of the field all day, but had to settle for field goals most of the day. This won't cut it against Tampa Bay. On the other side of the ball the Bills defense is very good as well. But I like the veteran quarterback Brian Griese and the workhorse Cadillac Williams at running back to do enough for Tampa to cover this small number. I can see the Bucs cashing in some easy points on Buffalo turnovers in this one. This is also a nice technical spot for the Bucs, as Tampa Bay is 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings with Buffalo and favorites in the first two weeks of the season that closed out the previous year with three or more straight losses against the spread are 39-14 against the number. I like the Bucs here!
3 STAR: CHICAGO (+2) OVER Detroit
Risking $330 to win $300
The Bears defense played very well last week at Washington, holding the Skins to just 9 points on three field goals and they had the Bears in position to win the game, but a late interception by rookie Kyle Orton cost them the win. Detroit won their opener 17-3 at home against Brett Favre and the Packers, but I don't like them heading into Chicago, especially as a road favorite. The Lions are 1-3 straight up after a division win the last three years and the Lions are also 0-6 straight up as a road favorite their last six chances in this roll. As a road favorite of less than seven points they are a dismal 2-12 against the spread their last fourteen tries. I see another low scoring game here and I give the advantage to the Bears, especially being at home, outdoors on grass where the Lions have also struggled. I think Orton will have a nice game here at home doing enough for the Bears to win, but it will ultimately be the Chicago defense that makes the difference. I'll take the points against a team that has lost 26 of their last 29 road games!
3 STAR: OAKLAND (+2) OVER Kansas City
Risking $330 to win $300
The Chiefs had an impressive win over the Jets to open their season, while the Raiders traveled to New England and were handed a 10 point loss, but I like the Raiders to bounce back here. Oakland got off to a quick 7-0 start against the Pats with a very impressive opening drive, but could not hold onto the lead. The Raider defense could not slow down the Pats early in the game, but made a nice adjustment in the second half keeping the Raiders in the game. Kerry Collins was hot at the beginning of the game, but then struggled the rest of the way. He still managed to throw for some nice numbers and I look for him to have a big night against a KC defense that is banged up with injuries to their best cover corner Patrick Surtain (concussion) and defensive end Ryan Simms (foot). If Surtain is not in this lineup Randy Moss will have a monster night, and he might have one even if Surtain is covering him. I found it a bit odd that this game opened at a pick, considering the fact that KC is off of a win and Oakland is off of a loss and the Chiefs have dominated this series as of late winning five out of the last six meetings. The public has put their money on Kansas City to make this line move, but I'm going the other way. Take the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 1-0 (+5.00 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.30 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 0-1 (-1.10 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 2-2 (+3.60 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $360
makin it rain since 2004
It's always noon somewhere! 
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