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Saturday NCAA Football - 9/17
This is my full card for this Saturday's action. I'll bump it up again on Saturday morning. Best of luck to everyone!!
NCAA Football
5 STAR: VIRGINIA TECH (-34) OVER Ohio
Risking $330 to win $300
Rarely do I make such a heavy chalk my top play of the week, but Virginia Tech is on a roll and I will continue to ride them here. The Hokies opened the season with a big win at NC State and then totally dominated Duke last week on the road. I look for that to continue here in Blacksburg for the home opener. I'm not a fan of laying this much wood, but I think this could be another shutout for the Hokie defense. The Bobcats are sky high coming off of last weeks upset of Pittsburgh as a two touchdown underdog, but Ohio is only 4-13 against the spread in their last 17 road games after one or more straight up win. The Hokies usually man handle these smaller schools that make the trip to Blacksburg. Last season they beat Western Michigan 63-0 as a 26 point favorite and Florida A&M 62-0 as a 23 point favorite, two seasons ago they shutout James Madison 43-0 (there was no line on this game) and three seasons ago they beat Arkansas State 63-7 as a 39 point favorite. So there is a history of them covering this big number against these smaller schools. I don't see the Bobcats being able to do much against the Virginia Tech defense and the Hokies are 7-0 against the spread the last two seasons when they allow 14 points or less. Hokies roll!!!
3 STAR: Michigan State (+7)(-$120) OVER NOTRE DAME
(Buy the 1/2 point)
Risking $360 to win $300
Notre Dame is off to a hot start by knocking off Pittsburgh and Michigan both on the road and now they have their home opener against Michigan State. The 2-0 start by the Irish has inflated this line and I think we have some very good value with the underdog Spartans. This is by far the best offense that the Irish have faced so far this season. The Pittsburgh and Michigan offenses have not been good this season as the Panthers struggled with Ohio and Michigan struggled against Northern Illinois in their other games, but the Michigan State offense is clicking with both the run and the passing game. The Spartans have won their last four meetings at Notre Dame since a loss in 1993 and their eleven wins are the most all-time of any team in South Bend. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have eight or more offensive starters including the quarterback returning are 75-37 against the spread in the first month of the season over the last ten years. MSU quarterback Drew Stanton is one of the nation's best all-around quarterbacks and I look for him to have a big game in this one. Michigan State is also 8-3 against the spread in the last eleven meetings with the Irish, I'll take the points!
2 STAR: GEORGIA (-38.5) OVER Louisiana-Monroe
Risking $220 to win $200
Louisiana-Monroe is most likely the worst team in Division I College football having lost their home opener to Division I-AA Northwestern State. In their second game last week, they were shutout 38-0 by a very sloppy Wyoming team. The Indians managed just 220 yards of total offense, with quarterback Steven Jyles completing just 13-of-32 passes for 106 yards before being replaced by backup Kinsmon Lancaster late in the third quarter. This should be a slaughter, as the Bulldogs have hammered the Indians in their two previous meetings, 70-6 in 1994 and 42-3 in 1997. It's hard to see Monroe putting much, if any, points on the board in this one and Georgia is is 39-16 against the spread in their last 55 games that they have allowed 14 or less points. Georgia is also 12-1 against the spread when they score 28 or more points in a game over the last three seasons, and they should have that by the half. Louisiana-Monroe is only 3-15 against the spread as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992 and they are in for a long day here. I'll lay the chalk!
2 STAR: MINNESOTA (-31) OVER Florida Atlantic
Risking $330 to win $300
I like the Golden Gophers to run wild in this match up. Having already won their first two games by 31 and 32 points against tougher competition, Minnesota should have a field day against Florida Atlantic. The Gophers have the #3 rushing attack in the nation led by stud running back Laurence Maroney who is averaging 7.1 yards per carry in the first two games of the season. Maroney should be able to add numbers to his Heisman campaign in this game as Florida Atlantic ranks 97th in the nation in rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, the Minnesota defense should not be challenged very much by a Florida Atlantic team that is 96th in the nation in total offense and only managed to put only 3 points on the board while turning the ball over three times at home against Oklahoma State in their last game. You may think that the Gophers would have a let down or take this team lightly, but it was reported that after Minnesota rolled past Colorado State 56-24 and dominated the Rams with their dominate running game and defense, there was no celebrating in the Gopher locker room over a 2-0 start. Neither the coaches nor the players were particularly happy with the execution and head coach Glen Mason said the main issue was too many mistakes. I look for the Gophers to execute very well in this game and roll up some very big numbers. Minnesota is 9-1 against the spread after playing a non conference game and 8-1 against the spread in September games over the last three years. I'll lay the wood here!
2005/2006 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.60 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 2-0 (+3.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 3-0 (+3.00 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 8-3 (+5.90 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $590
NCAA Football
5 STAR: VIRGINIA TECH (-34) OVER Ohio
Risking $330 to win $300
Rarely do I make such a heavy chalk my top play of the week, but Virginia Tech is on a roll and I will continue to ride them here. The Hokies opened the season with a big win at NC State and then totally dominated Duke last week on the road. I look for that to continue here in Blacksburg for the home opener. I'm not a fan of laying this much wood, but I think this could be another shutout for the Hokie defense. The Bobcats are sky high coming off of last weeks upset of Pittsburgh as a two touchdown underdog, but Ohio is only 4-13 against the spread in their last 17 road games after one or more straight up win. The Hokies usually man handle these smaller schools that make the trip to Blacksburg. Last season they beat Western Michigan 63-0 as a 26 point favorite and Florida A&M 62-0 as a 23 point favorite, two seasons ago they shutout James Madison 43-0 (there was no line on this game) and three seasons ago they beat Arkansas State 63-7 as a 39 point favorite. So there is a history of them covering this big number against these smaller schools. I don't see the Bobcats being able to do much against the Virginia Tech defense and the Hokies are 7-0 against the spread the last two seasons when they allow 14 points or less. Hokies roll!!!
3 STAR: Michigan State (+7)(-$120) OVER NOTRE DAME
(Buy the 1/2 point)
Risking $360 to win $300
Notre Dame is off to a hot start by knocking off Pittsburgh and Michigan both on the road and now they have their home opener against Michigan State. The 2-0 start by the Irish has inflated this line and I think we have some very good value with the underdog Spartans. This is by far the best offense that the Irish have faced so far this season. The Pittsburgh and Michigan offenses have not been good this season as the Panthers struggled with Ohio and Michigan struggled against Northern Illinois in their other games, but the Michigan State offense is clicking with both the run and the passing game. The Spartans have won their last four meetings at Notre Dame since a loss in 1993 and their eleven wins are the most all-time of any team in South Bend. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have eight or more offensive starters including the quarterback returning are 75-37 against the spread in the first month of the season over the last ten years. MSU quarterback Drew Stanton is one of the nation's best all-around quarterbacks and I look for him to have a big game in this one. Michigan State is also 8-3 against the spread in the last eleven meetings with the Irish, I'll take the points!
2 STAR: GEORGIA (-38.5) OVER Louisiana-Monroe
Risking $220 to win $200
Louisiana-Monroe is most likely the worst team in Division I College football having lost their home opener to Division I-AA Northwestern State. In their second game last week, they were shutout 38-0 by a very sloppy Wyoming team. The Indians managed just 220 yards of total offense, with quarterback Steven Jyles completing just 13-of-32 passes for 106 yards before being replaced by backup Kinsmon Lancaster late in the third quarter. This should be a slaughter, as the Bulldogs have hammered the Indians in their two previous meetings, 70-6 in 1994 and 42-3 in 1997. It's hard to see Monroe putting much, if any, points on the board in this one and Georgia is is 39-16 against the spread in their last 55 games that they have allowed 14 or less points. Georgia is also 12-1 against the spread when they score 28 or more points in a game over the last three seasons, and they should have that by the half. Louisiana-Monroe is only 3-15 against the spread as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992 and they are in for a long day here. I'll lay the chalk!
2 STAR: MINNESOTA (-31) OVER Florida Atlantic
Risking $330 to win $300
I like the Golden Gophers to run wild in this match up. Having already won their first two games by 31 and 32 points against tougher competition, Minnesota should have a field day against Florida Atlantic. The Gophers have the #3 rushing attack in the nation led by stud running back Laurence Maroney who is averaging 7.1 yards per carry in the first two games of the season. Maroney should be able to add numbers to his Heisman campaign in this game as Florida Atlantic ranks 97th in the nation in rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, the Minnesota defense should not be challenged very much by a Florida Atlantic team that is 96th in the nation in total offense and only managed to put only 3 points on the board while turning the ball over three times at home against Oklahoma State in their last game. You may think that the Gophers would have a let down or take this team lightly, but it was reported that after Minnesota rolled past Colorado State 56-24 and dominated the Rams with their dominate running game and defense, there was no celebrating in the Gopher locker room over a 2-0 start. Neither the coaches nor the players were particularly happy with the execution and head coach Glen Mason said the main issue was too many mistakes. I look for the Gophers to execute very well in this game and roll up some very big numbers. Minnesota is 9-1 against the spread after playing a non conference game and 8-1 against the spread in September games over the last three years. I'll lay the wood here!
2005/2006 NCAA FOOTBALL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 1-1 (-0.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.60 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 2-0 (+3.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 3-0 (+3.00 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 8-3 (+5.90 UNITS)
A $100 player would up $590
It's always noon somewhere! 
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