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ATLANTA 22 Philadelphia (-1.0) 21
06:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-12 - Stats Matchup
The Eagles are the best team in the NFL heading into this season, as they rank second to the Colts on offense, third on defense behind Buffalo and Baltimore and first in special teams. Atlanta surprisingly graded out pretty well in my initial ratings despite the fact that Michael Vick is vastly overrated. Vick is certainly an exciting player and his running is the best of any quarterback in NFL history, but his passing ability is in question after averaging a horrible 5.4 yards per pass play last season (against teams that combine to allow 6.2 yppp on defense). Vick did a decent job of throwing the football 7.2 yards per pass attempt, but he rarely threw the ball away and took 46 sacks in his constant effort to make every play a big play. It is the sacks that the Falcons a worse than average passing team and I rated Vick’s season at just 8.8 points better than an average quarterback who never ran. Vick certainly has the means to improve on his pass rating and I suspect that he’ll take less sacks this season after watching tapes in the off-season, but I will still rate the Falcons’ pass attack at 0.4 yppp worse than average, and even lower if Vick’s favorite target, TE Alge Crumpler, is out for this game (he’s been upgraded to probable). Crumpler had a great season, averaging 10.5 yards per pass thrown to him, which was better than most wide receivers in the league last year and significantly higher than the 6.0 ypa that the quarterbacks averaged throwing to anyone else. Because of the lack of other productive alternatives, Crumpler would be worth about 0.45 yppp, which translates to about 1 ½ points. The Falcons had the league’s best rushing attack last season and it was not all about Michael Vick, as running backs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett combined to run for 1615 yards at 4.4 ypr with 17 TD’s. Overall, the Falcons were an average offensive team last season with Vick on the field (5.3 yards per play against teams that combined to allow 5.3 yppl on defense), but I expect Vicks to improve some this season and I rate the Atlanta offense at 0.5 points better than average (or, 1.0 points worse than average if Crumpler doesn’t play). What made the Falcons good last year was a solid defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that combined to average 5.3 yppl on offense) and very good special teams that rated at 1.4 points better than average and should be even better this season with improvements at kicker (Todd Peterson) and punter (Gowen is great on kickoffs and his punting is underrated). The Falcons’ defense was actually better than their final numbers show, as their pass defense improved when first round draft pick DeAngelo Hall joined the active roster midseason after missing the first half of the year with an injury. I expect continued improvement from the Falcons’ defense this season and I rate that unit at 1.8 points better than average. As solid as I think the Falcons are, they are not nearly as good as the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s offense probably won’t be as good as it was last year, but Terrell Owens should be as motivated as ever to prove himself after his off season problems with the team (and QB McNabb), but the loss of #2 receiver Todd Pinkston hurts since he’s coming off a productive season and there is a big drop in expected production from the reserves. McNabb should still have a good year as long as Owens and all around back Brian Westbrook are on the field, but I rate the pass attack as 0.85 yards per pass play better than average after registering a fantastic 1.3 yppp last season (including the playoffs). Westbrook should lead a strong rushing attack, although the questionable status of star LT Tra Thomas would hurt the rushing numbers. I rate Philly’s attack at 5.7 points better than average (+5.2 without Thomas). The Eagles’ defense was just mediocre in the first half of last season before Jeremiah Trotter was installed in the starting lineup at middle linebacker. Trotter’s presence was the missing piece and he was so good that he earned All-Pro status despite starting just half the season. In 9 games with Trotter in the starting lineup (including the playoffs, but not counting week’s 16 and 17 when subs played most of the game after Philly had locked up the #1 seed) the Eagles allowed just 4.6 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combined to average 5.4 yppl on offense. The Eagles’ rush defense won’t be as good without recently departed DT Corey Simon, who is now in Indianapolis after failing to come to terms with the Eagles, but Philly sent 3 of their 4 defensive backs to the Pro Bowl and the unit returns intact as the best in the NFL (although Baltimore may argue). The Eagles rate at 4.1 points better than average defensively and they also have the league’s best special teams heading into this season (+1.9 points) after ranking at or near the top in each of the past 4 seasons. Overall, my ratings favor Philadelphia by 3 ½ points to 5 ½ points depending on the status of the Eagles’ Thomas (worth ½ a point) and the Falcons’ Crumpler (1 ½ points) and that number would be Eagles by 4 points if both stars play. While the line value significantly favors the Eagles, I will pass on this game based on a couple of week 1 indicators. One is a negative 12-31-1 ATS angle that applies to Philly and the other is a 61-33-2 ATS week 1 indicator that applies to Atlanta.
By Tony Moss, NFL Editor
(Sports Network) - The Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, who shared center stage in the 2004 NFC Championship, will be thrust into the spotlight yet again when they open their respective regular season schedules on Monday night in a battle from the Georgia Dome.
Philadelphia earned a decisive 27-10 victory over Atlanta at Lincoln Financial Field this past Jan. 23, a win that sent the Eagles to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1980 season. Andy Reid's squad lost the subsequent title contest to the New England Patriots, and will this year be attempting to become the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl the year after finishing as runner-up.
Atlanta, meanwhile, will be trying to build on last year's 11-5 season, as then-rookie head coach Jim Mora helped the team to an NFC South crown after it had posted a 5-11 record the year prior to his arrival. The Falcons upgraded their roster in the 2005 offseason in an effort to catch Philadelphia, adding pieces such as linebacker Edgerton Hartwell, wideout and first-round draft choice Roddy White, and former Eagles special teams ace Ike Reese to an already formidable roster of talent.
SERIES HISTORY
The Eagles hold a 11-9-1 edge in the all-time regular season series with the Falcons, and were 23-16 road winners in the last such game, during the 2003 season. Atlanta's most recent win regular season victory over Philadelphia was a 17-12 home triumph during the 1998 campaign.
In addition to their regular season advantage, the Eagles are 2-1 against the Falcons in the playoffs. Philadelphia was a 27-10 winner in the 2004 NFC Championship, defeated the Falcons, 20-6, in a 2002 NFC Divisional Playoff, and dropped a 14-13 road decision in a 1978 NFC First-Round Playoff.
Reid is 4-0 as a head coach against Atlanta, including the two aforementioned playoff wins. The Falcons' Mora is 0-1 against both Philadelphia and Reid.
EAGLES OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
There was a great deal of drama surrounding Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb (3875 passing yards, 31 TD, 8 INT) and wideout Terrell Owens (77 receptions, 14 TD) during the offseason and into training camp, as the two Pro Bowlers and former friends were involved in a public feud. Though the pair did not speak during the preseason, their strong performance together in the team's third warm-up game suggests that their personal conflict will not transfer to the playing field. In addition to Owens, McNabb will look to wideouts Greg Lewis (17 receptions) and rookie Reggie Brown (Georgia), who will have to step up following the season-ending Achilles injury suffered by former starter Todd Pinkston at the outset of training camp. Tight end L.J. Smith (34 receptions, 5 TD) should be another frequent McNabb target. There is one minor change up front, where second-year pro Shawn Andrews will play right guard after missing most of last season with a fractured right fibula. The Eagle line gave up 37 sacks during the 2004 regular season.
Atlanta will try to place pressure on McNabb, and has two reliable ends in Brady Smith (30 tackles, 6 sacks) and Patrick Kerney (66 tackles, 13 sacks) to help pull off the feat. That duo is aided by the presence of tackle Rod Coleman (40 tackles, 11.5 sacks), who had a huge 2004 season on the interior. Atlanta led the NFL with 48 sacks a year ago. The Falcons are perceived as being weak in the secondary, but cornerback DeAngelo Hall (34 tackles, 2 INT) is an emerging star and free safety Bryan Scott (96 tackles, 1 INT) is solid as well. McNabb could try and work against cornerback Jason Webster (40 tackles, 1 INT), who is not regarded as much of a playmaker.
Philadelphia is a pass-first team, but can turn to running back Brian Westbrook (812 rushing yards, 73 receptions, 9 TD) when it needs a change-of- pace. Westbrook has been involved in a contract dispute with the team, and the Eagles could try and get rookie Ryan Moats (Louisiana Tech) and former Ram and Dolphin Lamar Gordon (64 rushing yards, 13 receptions with Miami) on the field during 2005 in an effort to groom Westbrook's potential successor. Fullback Josh Parry (9 receptions) will open some holes for Westbrook and the backs.
The Falcons finished ninth in the league in rushing defense last season, but gave up 20 touchdowns on the ground, one of the highest figures in the league. Hartwell (97 tackles with the Ravens) was brought in to help improve that area, and will work as a part of a linebacking unit that also features Demorrio Williams (56 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Keith Brooking (101 tackles, 2.5 tackles), both holdovers. Coleman and nose tackle Chad Lavalais (28 tackles) are a big part of the run-stopping effort up front.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE
The Falcons ranked No. 1 in the NFL in rushing offense a year ago, with quarterback Michael Vick (902 rushing yards, 3 TD) and running backs Warrick Dunn (1106 rushing yards, 9 TD) and T.J. Duckett (509 rushing yards, 8 TD) all having their moments. But the Eagles contained all three players in last year's NFC Championship, as the trio combined for just 99 yards, including 26 yards on four rushes for Vick. Fullback Justin Griffith (22 receptions, 1 TD) is an occasional pass-catching threat out of the backfield.
Philadelphia's job on defense will be to stop Vick and the Atlanta rushing game, a directive that will fall primarily to linebackers Jeremiah Trotter (69 tackles), Keith Adams (46 tackles), and Dhani Jones (71 tackles, 1 INT). Trotter was a Pro Bowler in the middle last year, and Adams is considered an up-and-comer on the weak side. When the Falcons attempt to run inside, a deep group of defensive tackles that includes Darwin Walker (29 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Hollis Thomas (21 tackles), Sam Rayburn (28 tackles, 6 sacks) and rookie Mike Patterson (USC) will be there. The Eagles were 16th in the league against the run last year, but the defense improved measurably after Trotter was inserted in the starting lineup at mid-season.
Vick (2313 passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT) will have a new No. 1 receiver in the lineup, as second-year pro Michael Jenkins (7 receptions) takes over that role from the departed Peerless Price. Jenkins is likely to eventually start opposite the rookie White, but White battled injuries during training camp meaning Dez White (30 receptions, 2 TD) and Brian Finneran (23 receptions, 2 TD) will probably see more time than him on Monday night. Vick's favorite target last year was tight end Alge Crumpler (48 receptions, 6 TD), who was a matchup problems for most teams over the middle of the field. The Atlanta line gave up a bloated 50 sacks last season, but many of those were chalked up to Vick's indecisiveness in the west coast offense. As Vick becomes more comfortable, some pressure should be relieved from a starting trench unit that returns basically intact.
Placing heat on Vick will be Eagles ends Jevon Kearse (7.5 sacks) and N.D. Kalu, a duo that will also be charged with containing the dangerous running QB. Kalu, who takes over at end for departed Derrick Burgess (2.5 sacks), missed all of 2004 with a knee injury. Three of the four starting members of the Philadelphia secondary made the Pro Bowl last season, with cornerback Lito Sheppard (56 tackles, 5 INT), free safety Brian Dawkins (69 tackles, 4 INT, 3 sacks) and strong safety Michael Lewis (88 tackles, 1 INT) all earning a citation. The Eagles were 12th in the league against the pass a year ago.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Falcons will be fired up and determined to exact revenge on Philadelphia for last year's NFC Championship loss, but Atlanta matches up no better with the Eagles now than it did back in January. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson knows how to pull the right strings to contain Vick, and once that happens, Atlanta becomes an average team. Look for the Eagles to take the crowd out of the game early, and to win the contest on the strength of their defense.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Eagles 20, Falcons 12
06:00 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-12 - Stats Matchup
The Eagles are the best team in the NFL heading into this season, as they rank second to the Colts on offense, third on defense behind Buffalo and Baltimore and first in special teams. Atlanta surprisingly graded out pretty well in my initial ratings despite the fact that Michael Vick is vastly overrated. Vick is certainly an exciting player and his running is the best of any quarterback in NFL history, but his passing ability is in question after averaging a horrible 5.4 yards per pass play last season (against teams that combine to allow 6.2 yppp on defense). Vick did a decent job of throwing the football 7.2 yards per pass attempt, but he rarely threw the ball away and took 46 sacks in his constant effort to make every play a big play. It is the sacks that the Falcons a worse than average passing team and I rated Vick’s season at just 8.8 points better than an average quarterback who never ran. Vick certainly has the means to improve on his pass rating and I suspect that he’ll take less sacks this season after watching tapes in the off-season, but I will still rate the Falcons’ pass attack at 0.4 yppp worse than average, and even lower if Vick’s favorite target, TE Alge Crumpler, is out for this game (he’s been upgraded to probable). Crumpler had a great season, averaging 10.5 yards per pass thrown to him, which was better than most wide receivers in the league last year and significantly higher than the 6.0 ypa that the quarterbacks averaged throwing to anyone else. Because of the lack of other productive alternatives, Crumpler would be worth about 0.45 yppp, which translates to about 1 ½ points. The Falcons had the league’s best rushing attack last season and it was not all about Michael Vick, as running backs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett combined to run for 1615 yards at 4.4 ypr with 17 TD’s. Overall, the Falcons were an average offensive team last season with Vick on the field (5.3 yards per play against teams that combined to allow 5.3 yppl on defense), but I expect Vicks to improve some this season and I rate the Atlanta offense at 0.5 points better than average (or, 1.0 points worse than average if Crumpler doesn’t play). What made the Falcons good last year was a solid defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that combined to average 5.3 yppl on offense) and very good special teams that rated at 1.4 points better than average and should be even better this season with improvements at kicker (Todd Peterson) and punter (Gowen is great on kickoffs and his punting is underrated). The Falcons’ defense was actually better than their final numbers show, as their pass defense improved when first round draft pick DeAngelo Hall joined the active roster midseason after missing the first half of the year with an injury. I expect continued improvement from the Falcons’ defense this season and I rate that unit at 1.8 points better than average. As solid as I think the Falcons are, they are not nearly as good as the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s offense probably won’t be as good as it was last year, but Terrell Owens should be as motivated as ever to prove himself after his off season problems with the team (and QB McNabb), but the loss of #2 receiver Todd Pinkston hurts since he’s coming off a productive season and there is a big drop in expected production from the reserves. McNabb should still have a good year as long as Owens and all around back Brian Westbrook are on the field, but I rate the pass attack as 0.85 yards per pass play better than average after registering a fantastic 1.3 yppp last season (including the playoffs). Westbrook should lead a strong rushing attack, although the questionable status of star LT Tra Thomas would hurt the rushing numbers. I rate Philly’s attack at 5.7 points better than average (+5.2 without Thomas). The Eagles’ defense was just mediocre in the first half of last season before Jeremiah Trotter was installed in the starting lineup at middle linebacker. Trotter’s presence was the missing piece and he was so good that he earned All-Pro status despite starting just half the season. In 9 games with Trotter in the starting lineup (including the playoffs, but not counting week’s 16 and 17 when subs played most of the game after Philly had locked up the #1 seed) the Eagles allowed just 4.6 yards per play against a schedule of teams that combined to average 5.4 yppl on offense. The Eagles’ rush defense won’t be as good without recently departed DT Corey Simon, who is now in Indianapolis after failing to come to terms with the Eagles, but Philly sent 3 of their 4 defensive backs to the Pro Bowl and the unit returns intact as the best in the NFL (although Baltimore may argue). The Eagles rate at 4.1 points better than average defensively and they also have the league’s best special teams heading into this season (+1.9 points) after ranking at or near the top in each of the past 4 seasons. Overall, my ratings favor Philadelphia by 3 ½ points to 5 ½ points depending on the status of the Eagles’ Thomas (worth ½ a point) and the Falcons’ Crumpler (1 ½ points) and that number would be Eagles by 4 points if both stars play. While the line value significantly favors the Eagles, I will pass on this game based on a couple of week 1 indicators. One is a negative 12-31-1 ATS angle that applies to Philly and the other is a 61-33-2 ATS week 1 indicator that applies to Atlanta.
By Tony Moss, NFL Editor
(Sports Network) - The Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, who shared center stage in the 2004 NFC Championship, will be thrust into the spotlight yet again when they open their respective regular season schedules on Monday night in a battle from the Georgia Dome.
Philadelphia earned a decisive 27-10 victory over Atlanta at Lincoln Financial Field this past Jan. 23, a win that sent the Eagles to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1980 season. Andy Reid's squad lost the subsequent title contest to the New England Patriots, and will this year be attempting to become the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to win the Super Bowl the year after finishing as runner-up.
Atlanta, meanwhile, will be trying to build on last year's 11-5 season, as then-rookie head coach Jim Mora helped the team to an NFC South crown after it had posted a 5-11 record the year prior to his arrival. The Falcons upgraded their roster in the 2005 offseason in an effort to catch Philadelphia, adding pieces such as linebacker Edgerton Hartwell, wideout and first-round draft choice Roddy White, and former Eagles special teams ace Ike Reese to an already formidable roster of talent.
SERIES HISTORY
The Eagles hold a 11-9-1 edge in the all-time regular season series with the Falcons, and were 23-16 road winners in the last such game, during the 2003 season. Atlanta's most recent win regular season victory over Philadelphia was a 17-12 home triumph during the 1998 campaign.
In addition to their regular season advantage, the Eagles are 2-1 against the Falcons in the playoffs. Philadelphia was a 27-10 winner in the 2004 NFC Championship, defeated the Falcons, 20-6, in a 2002 NFC Divisional Playoff, and dropped a 14-13 road decision in a 1978 NFC First-Round Playoff.
Reid is 4-0 as a head coach against Atlanta, including the two aforementioned playoff wins. The Falcons' Mora is 0-1 against both Philadelphia and Reid.
EAGLES OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
There was a great deal of drama surrounding Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb (3875 passing yards, 31 TD, 8 INT) and wideout Terrell Owens (77 receptions, 14 TD) during the offseason and into training camp, as the two Pro Bowlers and former friends were involved in a public feud. Though the pair did not speak during the preseason, their strong performance together in the team's third warm-up game suggests that their personal conflict will not transfer to the playing field. In addition to Owens, McNabb will look to wideouts Greg Lewis (17 receptions) and rookie Reggie Brown (Georgia), who will have to step up following the season-ending Achilles injury suffered by former starter Todd Pinkston at the outset of training camp. Tight end L.J. Smith (34 receptions, 5 TD) should be another frequent McNabb target. There is one minor change up front, where second-year pro Shawn Andrews will play right guard after missing most of last season with a fractured right fibula. The Eagle line gave up 37 sacks during the 2004 regular season.
Atlanta will try to place pressure on McNabb, and has two reliable ends in Brady Smith (30 tackles, 6 sacks) and Patrick Kerney (66 tackles, 13 sacks) to help pull off the feat. That duo is aided by the presence of tackle Rod Coleman (40 tackles, 11.5 sacks), who had a huge 2004 season on the interior. Atlanta led the NFL with 48 sacks a year ago. The Falcons are perceived as being weak in the secondary, but cornerback DeAngelo Hall (34 tackles, 2 INT) is an emerging star and free safety Bryan Scott (96 tackles, 1 INT) is solid as well. McNabb could try and work against cornerback Jason Webster (40 tackles, 1 INT), who is not regarded as much of a playmaker.
Philadelphia is a pass-first team, but can turn to running back Brian Westbrook (812 rushing yards, 73 receptions, 9 TD) when it needs a change-of- pace. Westbrook has been involved in a contract dispute with the team, and the Eagles could try and get rookie Ryan Moats (Louisiana Tech) and former Ram and Dolphin Lamar Gordon (64 rushing yards, 13 receptions with Miami) on the field during 2005 in an effort to groom Westbrook's potential successor. Fullback Josh Parry (9 receptions) will open some holes for Westbrook and the backs.
The Falcons finished ninth in the league in rushing defense last season, but gave up 20 touchdowns on the ground, one of the highest figures in the league. Hartwell (97 tackles with the Ravens) was brought in to help improve that area, and will work as a part of a linebacking unit that also features Demorrio Williams (56 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Keith Brooking (101 tackles, 2.5 tackles), both holdovers. Coleman and nose tackle Chad Lavalais (28 tackles) are a big part of the run-stopping effort up front.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE
The Falcons ranked No. 1 in the NFL in rushing offense a year ago, with quarterback Michael Vick (902 rushing yards, 3 TD) and running backs Warrick Dunn (1106 rushing yards, 9 TD) and T.J. Duckett (509 rushing yards, 8 TD) all having their moments. But the Eagles contained all three players in last year's NFC Championship, as the trio combined for just 99 yards, including 26 yards on four rushes for Vick. Fullback Justin Griffith (22 receptions, 1 TD) is an occasional pass-catching threat out of the backfield.
Philadelphia's job on defense will be to stop Vick and the Atlanta rushing game, a directive that will fall primarily to linebackers Jeremiah Trotter (69 tackles), Keith Adams (46 tackles), and Dhani Jones (71 tackles, 1 INT). Trotter was a Pro Bowler in the middle last year, and Adams is considered an up-and-comer on the weak side. When the Falcons attempt to run inside, a deep group of defensive tackles that includes Darwin Walker (29 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Hollis Thomas (21 tackles), Sam Rayburn (28 tackles, 6 sacks) and rookie Mike Patterson (USC) will be there. The Eagles were 16th in the league against the run last year, but the defense improved measurably after Trotter was inserted in the starting lineup at mid-season.
Vick (2313 passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT) will have a new No. 1 receiver in the lineup, as second-year pro Michael Jenkins (7 receptions) takes over that role from the departed Peerless Price. Jenkins is likely to eventually start opposite the rookie White, but White battled injuries during training camp meaning Dez White (30 receptions, 2 TD) and Brian Finneran (23 receptions, 2 TD) will probably see more time than him on Monday night. Vick's favorite target last year was tight end Alge Crumpler (48 receptions, 6 TD), who was a matchup problems for most teams over the middle of the field. The Atlanta line gave up a bloated 50 sacks last season, but many of those were chalked up to Vick's indecisiveness in the west coast offense. As Vick becomes more comfortable, some pressure should be relieved from a starting trench unit that returns basically intact.
Placing heat on Vick will be Eagles ends Jevon Kearse (7.5 sacks) and N.D. Kalu, a duo that will also be charged with containing the dangerous running QB. Kalu, who takes over at end for departed Derrick Burgess (2.5 sacks), missed all of 2004 with a knee injury. Three of the four starting members of the Philadelphia secondary made the Pro Bowl last season, with cornerback Lito Sheppard (56 tackles, 5 INT), free safety Brian Dawkins (69 tackles, 4 INT, 3 sacks) and strong safety Michael Lewis (88 tackles, 1 INT) all earning a citation. The Eagles were 12th in the league against the pass a year ago.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Falcons will be fired up and determined to exact revenge on Philadelphia for last year's NFC Championship loss, but Atlanta matches up no better with the Eagles now than it did back in January. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson knows how to pull the right strings to contain Vick, and once that happens, Atlanta becomes an average team. Look for the Eagles to take the crowd out of the game early, and to win the contest on the strength of their defense.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Eagles 20, Falcons 12