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Washington St. (-9.5) 34 NEVADA 27
07:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Sep-09 - Stats Matchup
I expected a lackluster effort from Washington State last week, as the Cougars qualified in a negative 31-71-2 ATS game 1 home favorite angle and won just 38-26 as a 29 point favorite against Idaho. However, Washington State dominated that game much more than the final margin suggests, out-gaining the Vandals by an average of 6.8 yards per play to 3.5 yppl (it was the -2 in turnovers that kept the game fairly competitive). Washington State is now an underrated team that has a history of 10 win seasons in years with 13 or more returning starters. The Cougars had just 6 total returning starters last year and still went 5-6 straight up while rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on offense (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average offense) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit). Washington State will be considerably better this season with 15 returning starters and my ratings favor the Cougars by 14 points against a bad Nevada team that is decent offensively (I rate them average offensively after rating at 0.4 yppl worse than average last year), but horrible on defense. The Wolf Pack allowed 6.2 yppl last season, against teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense, and they have lost most of their best players from last year’s unit. The pass defense was plagued by injuries last season and will be considerably better, but Nevada still won’t be able to stop the run and I rate their defense at 0.8 yppl worse than average. While the line value is squarely on the side of the Cougars in this game, I hesitate to play the visiting favorite given that Washington State is just 4-11-1 ATS laying points under coach Doba and the home team has gone 12-1 ATS in Nevada’s last 13 games, as they play much better here in Reno.
DATE & TIME: Friday, September 9th, 10:05 p.m. (et).
FACTS & STATS: Site: Mackay Stadium (31,545) -- Reno, Nevada. Television: ESPN. Home Record: WSU 1-0, Nevada 0-0. Away Record: WSU 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Neutral Record: WSU 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Conference Record: WSU 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Series Record: Washington State lead, 1-0.
GAME NOTES: The Washington State Cougars will try to remain undefeated in 2005 when they travel to Mackay Stadium in Reno for a non-conference matchup with the Nevada Wolf Pack. It wasn't the most impressive opening to a season for the Cougars last Thursday, but a 38-26 victory over Idaho marked the team's fifth straight win in a season lidlifter. Bill Doba's squad has also won its last eight non-conference home games and is 5-0 all-time against the Vandals. The Cougars have now outscored Idaho 87-34 the last two seasons, but are just 3-3 in their last six home games, dating back to last year. As for the Wolf Pack, this game will mark the opening of their '05 campaign. Last year Nevada went a lackluster 5-7 overall and finished just 3-5 in Western Athletic Conference action (sixth place). In 2002 these two schools met for the first time and it was the Cougars who came away with a 31-7 victory.
It took Doba almost all of the offseason to figure out who would be his starting quarterback this year and after the first outing against the Vandals, it appears he might have made the right choice with Alex Brink. The sophomore signal caller completed 17-of-29 passes for 230 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 29 yards on three attempts. Michael Bumpus was the team's leading receiver, hauling in eight balls for 88 yards and a score. Jason Hill was just as productive in the passing game, finishing with five catches for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Jerome Harrison proved that he is primed to have a breakout campaign for the Cougars, racking up 165 yards and two scores on 24 carries (6.9 ypc). Harrison, the Cougars' leading rusher a year ago with 900 yards in just five starts, tallied 134 of his 165 yards in the first half.
Idaho finished with 26 points against the WSU defense, but the Cougars surrendered just 266 total yards, with only 86 coming on the ground. In fact, the Vandals rushed for just 2.1 ypc and converted a mere 5-of-17 third-down chances. All-American and Butkus Award favorite Will Derting led the squad with 11 tackles, seven of which were solo stops. Eric Frampton had a solid outing as well, posting seven tackles and team-highs in both TFLs (two) and PBUs (two). DeWayne Patterson, Adam Braidwood and Mkristo Bruce each recorded a sack for Washington State, while Braidwood also had a squad-best five quarterback hurries. Despite the strong performances by the Cougars' pass rushers and Derting, they still need to become more effective when their opponent is inside the 20-yard line. The Vandals managed to score all five times they entered the red zone last week.
Junior quarterback Jeff Rowe completed 58.4 percent of his pass attempts last season for 2,633 yards and 15 touchdowns. Hopefully Rowe will be able to cut down on some of his mistakes though, as he threw 12 interceptions and was not really ready to become a force in head coach Chris Ault's offense. Rowe has the advantage of having Nichiren Flowers on his side. Flowers is one of the top receivers in the WAC and is also garnering national recognition for ranking second in the league in receptions (91) and yards (1,126) last season. Fellow wideout Caleb Spencer (67 receptions, 761 yards, four TDs in '04) should help take some of the heat off Flowers and he gives Rowe another dangerous deep threat. Tailback Chance Kretschmer, one of the best running backs in school history, is no longer here and the tailback responsibility now lies with senior B.J. Mitchell. With seven rushing touchdowns, Mitchell matched Kretschmer in that department in '04 and also added 450 rushing yards. Junior Robert Hubbard could also see time in the backfield, giving Nevada a potent combination of speed and power.
Nevada's defense was near the middle of the pack in 2004, but this season the Wolf Pack could shoot up the rankings thanks to the play of sophomore linebacker Jeremy Engstrom. The leading tackler for Nevada as a freshman last season, Engstrom tallied 97 stops, 34 more than his next closest teammate, and was rewarded with Second-Team All-WAC honors. Talented linebacker Jamaal Jackson, who finished with 40 tackles a season ago, and former defensive end J.J. Milan give the Wolf Pack one of the best group of linebackers in the WAC. An outstanding lineman, Milan could be even more disruptive in free space, which means his 49 tackles and 10.5 TFLs will likely go up here in 2005. The Pack is counting on sophomore Matt Hines to step up his play after starting a pair of games a year ago. Senior Craig Bailey and junior Charles Wilson will fight for the right to play on the end of the line with Milan now moved a step back in the defensive scheme. Safety Nick Hawthorne, who led the team with five interceptions and recovered a pair of fumbles in 10 games last season, will team up with returning starters at corner Paul Pratt and Kevin Stanley, to form a solid secondary.
The Wolf Pack has a chance to pull off a major upset in this contest if its defense plays up to expectations. Brink looked good against the Vandals last week, but that may not be the case against a Nevada squad that is chomping at the bit to make a good first impression.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Nevada 23, Washington State 21
07:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Sep-09 - Stats Matchup
I expected a lackluster effort from Washington State last week, as the Cougars qualified in a negative 31-71-2 ATS game 1 home favorite angle and won just 38-26 as a 29 point favorite against Idaho. However, Washington State dominated that game much more than the final margin suggests, out-gaining the Vandals by an average of 6.8 yards per play to 3.5 yppl (it was the -2 in turnovers that kept the game fairly competitive). Washington State is now an underrated team that has a history of 10 win seasons in years with 13 or more returning starters. The Cougars had just 6 total returning starters last year and still went 5-6 straight up while rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on offense (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average offense) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit). Washington State will be considerably better this season with 15 returning starters and my ratings favor the Cougars by 14 points against a bad Nevada team that is decent offensively (I rate them average offensively after rating at 0.4 yppl worse than average last year), but horrible on defense. The Wolf Pack allowed 6.2 yppl last season, against teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense, and they have lost most of their best players from last year’s unit. The pass defense was plagued by injuries last season and will be considerably better, but Nevada still won’t be able to stop the run and I rate their defense at 0.8 yppl worse than average. While the line value is squarely on the side of the Cougars in this game, I hesitate to play the visiting favorite given that Washington State is just 4-11-1 ATS laying points under coach Doba and the home team has gone 12-1 ATS in Nevada’s last 13 games, as they play much better here in Reno.
DATE & TIME: Friday, September 9th, 10:05 p.m. (et).
FACTS & STATS: Site: Mackay Stadium (31,545) -- Reno, Nevada. Television: ESPN. Home Record: WSU 1-0, Nevada 0-0. Away Record: WSU 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Neutral Record: WSU 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Conference Record: WSU 0-0, Nevada 0-0. Series Record: Washington State lead, 1-0.
GAME NOTES: The Washington State Cougars will try to remain undefeated in 2005 when they travel to Mackay Stadium in Reno for a non-conference matchup with the Nevada Wolf Pack. It wasn't the most impressive opening to a season for the Cougars last Thursday, but a 38-26 victory over Idaho marked the team's fifth straight win in a season lidlifter. Bill Doba's squad has also won its last eight non-conference home games and is 5-0 all-time against the Vandals. The Cougars have now outscored Idaho 87-34 the last two seasons, but are just 3-3 in their last six home games, dating back to last year. As for the Wolf Pack, this game will mark the opening of their '05 campaign. Last year Nevada went a lackluster 5-7 overall and finished just 3-5 in Western Athletic Conference action (sixth place). In 2002 these two schools met for the first time and it was the Cougars who came away with a 31-7 victory.
It took Doba almost all of the offseason to figure out who would be his starting quarterback this year and after the first outing against the Vandals, it appears he might have made the right choice with Alex Brink. The sophomore signal caller completed 17-of-29 passes for 230 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 29 yards on three attempts. Michael Bumpus was the team's leading receiver, hauling in eight balls for 88 yards and a score. Jason Hill was just as productive in the passing game, finishing with five catches for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Jerome Harrison proved that he is primed to have a breakout campaign for the Cougars, racking up 165 yards and two scores on 24 carries (6.9 ypc). Harrison, the Cougars' leading rusher a year ago with 900 yards in just five starts, tallied 134 of his 165 yards in the first half.
Idaho finished with 26 points against the WSU defense, but the Cougars surrendered just 266 total yards, with only 86 coming on the ground. In fact, the Vandals rushed for just 2.1 ypc and converted a mere 5-of-17 third-down chances. All-American and Butkus Award favorite Will Derting led the squad with 11 tackles, seven of which were solo stops. Eric Frampton had a solid outing as well, posting seven tackles and team-highs in both TFLs (two) and PBUs (two). DeWayne Patterson, Adam Braidwood and Mkristo Bruce each recorded a sack for Washington State, while Braidwood also had a squad-best five quarterback hurries. Despite the strong performances by the Cougars' pass rushers and Derting, they still need to become more effective when their opponent is inside the 20-yard line. The Vandals managed to score all five times they entered the red zone last week.
Junior quarterback Jeff Rowe completed 58.4 percent of his pass attempts last season for 2,633 yards and 15 touchdowns. Hopefully Rowe will be able to cut down on some of his mistakes though, as he threw 12 interceptions and was not really ready to become a force in head coach Chris Ault's offense. Rowe has the advantage of having Nichiren Flowers on his side. Flowers is one of the top receivers in the WAC and is also garnering national recognition for ranking second in the league in receptions (91) and yards (1,126) last season. Fellow wideout Caleb Spencer (67 receptions, 761 yards, four TDs in '04) should help take some of the heat off Flowers and he gives Rowe another dangerous deep threat. Tailback Chance Kretschmer, one of the best running backs in school history, is no longer here and the tailback responsibility now lies with senior B.J. Mitchell. With seven rushing touchdowns, Mitchell matched Kretschmer in that department in '04 and also added 450 rushing yards. Junior Robert Hubbard could also see time in the backfield, giving Nevada a potent combination of speed and power.
Nevada's defense was near the middle of the pack in 2004, but this season the Wolf Pack could shoot up the rankings thanks to the play of sophomore linebacker Jeremy Engstrom. The leading tackler for Nevada as a freshman last season, Engstrom tallied 97 stops, 34 more than his next closest teammate, and was rewarded with Second-Team All-WAC honors. Talented linebacker Jamaal Jackson, who finished with 40 tackles a season ago, and former defensive end J.J. Milan give the Wolf Pack one of the best group of linebackers in the WAC. An outstanding lineman, Milan could be even more disruptive in free space, which means his 49 tackles and 10.5 TFLs will likely go up here in 2005. The Pack is counting on sophomore Matt Hines to step up his play after starting a pair of games a year ago. Senior Craig Bailey and junior Charles Wilson will fight for the right to play on the end of the line with Milan now moved a step back in the defensive scheme. Safety Nick Hawthorne, who led the team with five interceptions and recovered a pair of fumbles in 10 games last season, will team up with returning starters at corner Paul Pratt and Kevin Stanley, to form a solid secondary.
The Wolf Pack has a chance to pull off a major upset in this contest if its defense plays up to expectations. Brink looked good against the Vandals last week, but that may not be the case against a Nevada squad that is chomping at the bit to make a good first impression.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Nevada 23, Washington State 21
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