Trends Friday

[Spark]

Hot pitchers
-- Loaiza is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.
-- Reds are 6-2 in last eight LHudson starts.
-- Clemens has 2.43 RA in his last five starts, but Astros scored total of four runs, lost all five games. Davis has a 3.09 RA in his last five starts.
-- Seo is 7-1, 1.79 in nine starts this season. Marquis is 2-0, 0.50 in his last two starts.
-- B. Kim is 2-0, 0.92 in his last three starts.
-- Cain is 1-1, 2.25 in two starts for the Giants.

-- Wells is 3-0, 1.71 in his last three starts. Small is 4-0, 2.04 in his five starts for Bronx.
-- Santana is 3-0, 0.67 in his last five starts. Indians are 7-2 in last nine Westbrook starts.
-- McClung is 4-1, 2.86 in his last five starts. Towers is 2-1, 2.15 in his last five starts.
-- Washburn has 1.77 RA in his last three starts.
-- Zito is 4-0, 1.01 in his last six road starts. Dominguez is 3-0, 1.69 in his last three starts.
-- Seattle is 11-1 in Moyer's last twelve home starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Braves are 2-7 in last nine Ramirez starts.
-- Burnett is 0-3, 9.56 in his last three starts. Lidle is 2-4, 7.97 in his last eight starts.
-- Ol. Perez makes first start since June 26; Pirates were 7-1 in his last eight starts.
-- Estes makes first start since July 5; Snakes are 2-5 in his road starts.
-- Former Giant Williams is 2-4, 5.06 in last seven starts
-- Houlton is 1-6, 5.43 in his last ten starts. WWilliams is 1-3, 5.40 in his last three starts.


-- Douglass has 10.38 RA in his last five starts. KC lost last eight Greinke starts (0-5, 7.77).
-- White Sox are 5-7 in last dozen Buehrle starts (2-3, 4.91 in his last five starts).
-- Bedard is 0-2, 6.35 in his last five starts.


Totals
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen National home games
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Philly home games.
-- Under is 5-1 in last six LHudson starts.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Houston games.
-- Under is 9-2 in last eleven Met road games.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Arizona road games.
-- Under is 12-5 in last seventeen Giant home games.
-- Under is 7-4 in last eleven Dodger home games.

-- Under is 5-1 in last six Boston road games.
-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Douglass starts.
-- Under is 8-1 in last nine Indian games.
-- Under is 5-1 in last six Devil Ray games.
-- Under 12-4-1 in last seventeen White Sox home tilts.
-- Under is 3-1 in last four Zito road outings.
-- Under is 8-1-2 in last eleven Oriole road games.

Hot teams
-- Braves won six of their last seven games.
-- Florida is 6-2 in last eight road contests.
-- Brewers won three of last four games. Astros 14-7 in last twenty-one road games.
-- Rockies won their last five home games.
-- Cubs won six of their last seven games. Giants won six of their last nine games.
-- Dodgers won four of last five home games.

-- Bronx is 11-3 in last fourteen home games.
-- Indians won fifteen of their last twenty games. Twins are 9-4 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Devil Rays won four of their last five games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last eight games.



Cold Teams
-- Nationals are 9-17 at home since All-Star Break.
-- Phillies lost their last five games.
-- Pirates lost six of last seven games. Reds are 5-9 in last fourteen home games.
-- Arizona is 2-6 in last eight games.
-- Mets lost ten of their last twelve games. Cardinals are 12-12 in their last 24 home games.
-- Giants lost their last three games.
-- Padres are 10-15 in their last 25 home games.

-- Royals lost nine of their last twelve games. Tigers lost last seven games, scoring total of nine runs.
-- Blue Jays are 3-7 in last ten road games.
-- Angels lost six of last seven games on foreign soil.
-- A's are 3-13 in last sixteen games where they scored less than eight runs.
-- Orioles are 5-14 in last nineteen games.

[Spark]

Friday's Games
Pitt and Ohio U both got blasted last week, but Panthers loss was at home, as they allowed Notre Dame to run for 275 yards in game that was 35-13 at half. Bobcats lost 38-14 at Northwestern, going 0-8 on third down, and getting outgained 551-243. Pitt is 3-6 as favorite on road last three years. Ohio 0-3 vs spread in its last three non-MAC home games. Pitt won this game 24-3 last year, as 17-point favorite. Neither side worth endorsing; good night to go to movies or watch baseball.

Washington State was shaky in its 38-26 home win over local rival Idaho last week, turning ball over three times, but rushing for 206 yards and outgaining Vandals, 436-266. Game was just 17-12 at half. Season debut for Nevada, which was 5-7 last year- they have a junior QB with 14 starts, but three new starters on OL. Wazoo just 3-10 vs spread after a win, but they have covered eight of their last eleven road openers. Nevada is 7-3 against spread in last ten non-WAC games, covering four in row against Pac-10 competition.

[Spark]

Friday, September 9th

(TC) Pittsburgh at Ohio, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Pittsburgh - 2-14 ATS after a home loss by 14+ points
Ohio - 5-1 ATS after being outrushed by 125+ yards

Washington State at Nevada Reno, 10:00 EST ESPN
Washington State - 18-6 Over off a combined score of 60+ points
Nevada Reno - 6-2 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

[Spark]

HISTORICAL-TRENDS

Oakland at New England – The Raiders beat the Patriots, 27-20, at home in 2002.

Denver at Miami – The Broncos edged the Dolphins, 20-17, at home in 2004.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – The Bengals are 3-1 SU and ATS at Cleveland. The teams split last season with the Bengals winning 58-48 at home and losing 34-17 on the road.

Houston at Buffalo – The Texans nipped the Bills, 12-10, on the road in 2003.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh – The Titans are 3-0 ATS their last three against the Steelers. Tennessee beat Pittsburgh, 30-13, on the road in 2003.

Chicago at Washington – The Redskins shaded the Bears, 13-10, last year at Chicago.

New Orleans at Carolina – The Saints are 3-0 ATS their last three at Carolina. The Panthers beat New Orleans, 32-21, on the road and lost 21-18 at home.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – The Bucs defeated the Vikings, 38-24, at home in 2002.

Seattle at Jacksonville – The Seahawks beat the Jaguars, 24-15, at home in 2001.

New York Jets at Kansas City – The Chiefs defeated the Jets, 29-25, on the road in 2002.

Arizona at New York Giants – The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS their last three at the Giants. The Cardinals nipped the Giants, 17-14, last year at home.

St. Louis at San Francisco – The Rams swept the 49ers last year, winning 24-14 on the road and 16-6 at home.

Green Bay at Detroit – Green Bay beat Detroit 38-10 on the road and 16-13 at home last year. The Lions are 7-1 ATS at home against the Packers.

Dallas at San Diego – The Cowboys defeated the Chargers, 32-21, at San Diego in 2001.

Indianapolis at Baltimore – The Colts beat the Ravens, 20-10, last year at home.

Philadelphia at Atlanta – The Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS the past three years against the Falcons. The Eagles beat the Falcons, 27-10, at home last year in the NFC title game.

Coaches Trends:

Denver – Shanahan is 15-4 ATS in the first two weeks of the season

New Orleans – Haslett is 14-3 ATS in division road games

Arizona – Green is 6-0 over as an away dog of 7 or less points with the Cards

St. Louis – Martz is 9-20 ATS playing on grass fields

Green Bay – Sherman is 15-1 over when playing on artificial turf

Kansas City – Shottenheimer is 14-4 under in September home games

Philadelphia – Reid is 9-2 ATS on the road in the first month of the season

College Football

Michigan – Carr is 14-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games

Maryland – Friedgen is 9-2 ATS at home after an ATS loss

Clemson – Bowden is 1-9 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play

Virginia Tech – Beamer is 10-1 ATS after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play

Duke – Roof is 10-2 ATS off a SU loss

Boston College – O’Brien is 9-2 ATS at home after allowing 14 or less points

San Jose State – Tomey is 18-7 ATS as a road underdog

N. Illinois – Novak is 20-9 ATS after a SU loss

Northwestern – Walker is 5-13 ATS off a SU home win

Minnesota – Mason is 5-15 ATS at home after scoring 37 or more points

Washington – Willingham is 21-9 ATS after a game with a +2 or more turnover ratio

Iowa – Ferentz is 24-9 ATS as a favorite

Iowa State – McCarney is 9-2 ATS at home off a SU home win

Georgia Tech – Gailey is 12-1 Under in the first half of the season

South Carolina - Spurrier is 17-6 ATS away after committing 3 or more turnovers

Florida – Meyer is 15-2 ATS in non-conference games

Boise State – Hawkins is 10-0 ATS when total is 63 or more points

New Mexico – Long is 5-13 ATS away versus non-conference opponents

Wake Forest – Grobe is 1-11 ATS after a SU loss by 6 or less points

Arkansas – Nutt is 10-2 ATS after scoring 42 or more points

Air Force – DeBerry is 1-12 ATS at home after scoring 3 or less points in the first half

Toledo – Amstutz is 16-5 ATS at home

Southern Miss – Bower is 10-2 ATS in road games the first two weeks of the season

Texas – Brown is 0-7 ATS away off a win by 35 or more points

Ohio State – Tressel is 15-6 Under after allowing 100 or less yards rushing

Arizona State – Koetter is 15-2 ATS at home off an ATS win

[crswir]

Indexes

MDT TV Favorite & Rating Spr. Underdog & Rating Score +/-
6:00p ESPN2 Pittsburgh 89 19 Ohio U.* 67 -
8:00p ESPN Washington State 85 9 Nevada* 73 -

[Spark]

Friday, September 09, 2005

MLB | BOSTON at NY YANKEES
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BOSTON) good offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL
34-21 since 1997. ( 61.8% | 26.3 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.3 units )
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MLB | FLORIDA at PHILADELPHIA
Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team, in September games
98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.7 units )
9-6 this year. ( 60.0% | 2.6 units )


MLB | TORONTO at TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 23-16 (+15.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was: TAMPA BAY (5.1) , OPPONENT (5.1)
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MLB | MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
J SANTANA is 43-10 (+28.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: J SANTANA (5.4) , OPPONENT (3.2)
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MLB | BOSTON at NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 24-27 (-27.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
The average score was: NY YANKEES (5.5) , OPPONENT (5.9)
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MLB | BALTIMORE at SEATTLE
E BEDARD is 4-18 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: E BEDARD (4.3) , OPPONENT (5.8)
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MLB | OAKLAND at TEXAS
TEXAS is 19-4 OVER (+14.7 Units) in Home games after 4 or more consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (6.9) , OPPONENT (6.4)
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MLB | ANAHEIM at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 38-19 UNDER (+17.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.
The average score was: CHI WHITE SOX (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.7)

[Spark]

Week 1 NFL games

Raiders @ Patriots- First trip to Foxboro for Al Davis since Tuck Rule cost Silver and Black playoff game four years ago; also debut for Moss, Jordan in Oakland's new high-powered offense, first game for Belichick without Crennel, Weis as coordinators. Raiders 4-1-1 vs spread in first road game last six years; the last six years, over is 17-7 in their first four games of season. Patriots allowed 21+ points in six of last seven season openers- they're
2-0-1 vs spread in last three season openers. Four of last five series games were decided by four or less points.

Texans @ Bills- Losman gets first NFL start vs Capers' defense; home side lost both series games, with Houston winning here 12-10 two years ago. Texans won two of their three openers, scoring 19-21-20 points. Over is 7-1 in their first four games the last two years, but six of last seven Buffalo openers stayed under total, and under is 6-2 in their first four games the last two seasons. Bills lost six of last eight season openers; they scored just 12.4 ppg in first four games last year, now they're breaking in new QB, vs coach who is proven defensive expert. .

Saints @ Panthers- No doubt that New Orleans is now America's Team, especially if they decide to play all 16 games on road (My guess is that they'll wind up playing some games at LSU later in year) Last season ended with Saints upsetting Carolina 21-18 to win fourth game in row and finish year at 8-8; road team is 7-0 in series, with NO winning four of last five visits to this site, losing only 19-13 in '03. Four of last five series games were decided by six or less points. In last six years, under is 19-5 in Panthers' first four games of season, but over is 9-3 in first four Saint games the last three years. Dog is 5-0 vs spread in last five Panther openers, with Carolina winning three of last four. Saints covered first road game in six of last seven years.

Bengals @ Browns- Wild games in this series last year, as 157 points were tallied in two games, but Browns have new, defensive-minded coach, so doubt Bengals will put 58 points in game this year. Cleveland scored seven or less points in four of six season openers (1-5), with four of last five openers staying under total. Cincy been awful out of gate, losing six of last seven openers, and allowing 34-30-31 points in last three; they're 1-3-1 vs spread in first road game last five years. Bengals lost three of last four visits to this site.

Seahawks @ Jaguars- Seattle won first road game in six of last eight years, allowing 13 or less points in all six wins. Jaguars won four of last five games last year, with Jax scoring 31+ points in five of last six games- eight of their last eleven games went over in '04, as did 11 of last 15 Seattle contests. Teams haven't met since '01, but Seattle is 3-1 in series. Both teams have premier RB; would give Seattle edge in coaching, Jags edge in QB play and defense.

Jets @ Chiefs- Am slightly concerned about Trent Green undergoing procedure last week, where they stuck needle into artery in his leg, to promote better circulation. This is never a good thing. Gang Green thrives on turnovers, but KC's strength is its offense; the Chief D is expected to be much better. First Jet visit to this site since '98, but stadium is replica of Giants' Stadium. Chiefs covered just one of last five home openers, with eight of their last nine openers at Arrowhead staying under total. Six of last eight Jet openers went over total. Pennington can't throw deep yet, so Chiefs better contain running game.

Broncos @ Dolphins- Frerotte gets not at QB in Saban's debut on South Beach, vs Denver squad that is 0-6 in its history at Miami and is 2-8-1 in last eleven series games. Miami is 9-1 vs spread if fave of less than five points or a dog in their openers. Denver covered eight of last ten series openers; five of their last seven openers went over total, as did their last four games last year (average total, 59.3). Spread jumped a point. Will be interesting to see how much #34 runs ball for Miami. Huge pressure game for Shanahan, who has zero playoff wins without Elway.

Buccaneers @ Vikings- Viking defense expected to be improved after off-season upgrades. Moss-less Vikings will spread ball all over field, but will miss injured C Birk, out three months with injury. Home team won last nine series games, with Bucs losing last four visits to this site by 24,7,7,4 points. Tampa went in tank at end of last year, losing last four games while yielding 25.3 ppg; six of their last eight games stayed under total, as did eight of their last ten series openers. Vikings lost five of last seven games in '04, with seven of last nine staying under.

Titans @ Steelers- Steelers using 3rd-string RB for this game; can Big Ben recreate last year's magic? Tennessee stalwart OL Hopkins suspended for this game (domestic violence) but Titans won four of last five at this site, are 10-2 SU in series vs old AFC Central foe, scoring 31.7 ppg in last three. Last four series totals were 43+. Titans took salary cap hit in offseason, so their talent level down somewhat, but they do own edge at QB with wily vet McNair. NFL debut for offensive guru Chow, who came to NFL from USC, Fisher's alma mater.

Bears @ Redskins- Not many good weather NFL games have total of 33, but this one does. Chicago uses rookie Orton under center, with Grossman missing another year; will Benson get lot of carries after missing most of camp? Lovie's defense capable of creating turnovers and quick points, vs Redskin offense that wasn't crisp this summer. Washington won seven of last nine series games, with last three all decided by five or less points; they're 4-1 in last five at this site.

Packers @ Lions- Harrington was under fire to produce, with Garcia breathing down his neck, but backup broke his leg last week, so Motor City Kitties will sink or swim with the Oregon Duck at QB. Green Bay slowish on defense, bad news vs fleet set of Lion receivers; now question is, can Mariucci overcome QB matchup of Joey vs Favre? Packers won eight of last nine series games, with Lions scoring 14 or less points in four of last five. Pack is 3-1 in last four visits to this site, with four of last five series totals here, 48+.

Cardinals @ Giants- Warner gets shot at team he played for in first half of '04; he also opened the '03 season as visitor at this site; expect Giants to blitz a lot and test unproven middle of Big Red OL. Redbirds have good stable of WR's, so if Warner gets protected, he'll make plays. Eli has just one win as starting QB; Giants have upgraded at RB, OL and kicker. Cardinals lost last five season openers (last four by 7+ points) and nine of last ten; they're 1-6 in last seven visits to Swamp. Average total in last five series games, 29. Has Eli been distracted by travelling around so much with hurricane aid?

Cowboys @ Chargers- San Diego is gaga over Chargers after last year; opening with Dallas makes it even moreso. Bledsoe makes debut for Cowboys, vs San Diego team that hosted playoff tilt last year after shockingly good 12-win season. Parcells has stud RB in Jones, a bigger defense and a tough foe to open with. Dallas won five of last seven series games, three of last four at this site, but this is first Poke visit to Qualcomm in ten years.All eight home games for San Diego either sellouts or close.

Rams @ 49ers- St Louis won ten of last 12 series games, with eight of ten wins by 10+ points in what is rivalry game. Niners will be emotional in memory of deceased teammate Herrion; they made wise move in starting vet QB Rattay over #1 pick Smith, who is not yet ready to be an NFL QB. Rams to unveil Jackson as feature back, with Faulk as third down back; they're deep at WR and if Bulger gets protection, they will score points. This figures to be game Rams control, but Martz teams not always dependable on foreign soil

Colts @ Ravens- Colts left Baltimore in dark of night for midwest, and are 0-2 in returns since, with totals of 69-66; Dungy Colts have lost home field in recent playoff games, because of early season losses, usually to Patriots, but this game has same M-O, as Baltimore is legit Super Bowl threat. Home side won last five series games. Six of last seven Raven openers stayed under, with Baltimore scoring just 11.6 ppg- they're 2-6 in last eight openers, losing last three in row. Severe QB mismatch, Peyton vs Boller, but again, fair question: How much has siutation in New Orleans distracted players from that area?

Eagles @ Falcons- Johnson's defense has quickness and maturity to contain lightning-quick Vick. Whether he can pass well enough to beat this defense remains in doubt. Philly signing of Dolphin reject Lamar Gordon at RB a sign their run game is not good; and unless Owens 100%, their passing game lacking at WR, too. Rematch of last year's NFC title game; Philly won last four series games by average score of 27-10, with two of those contests (20-6/27-10) in playoffs. Monday night home dogs are historically strong, but Reid has been primetime master.