Tweet
WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET
NCAA PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* OKLAHOMA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 32
3* T.C.U.* over MEMPHIS by 28
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Nebraska* over Colorado by 12 (Friday)
Colorado State* over U.N.L.V. by 8
Southern Miss* over East Carolina by 21
Alabama over Hawaii* by 22
NFL PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
3* Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
CLOSE CALLS
New England over *Detroit by 1 (Thanksgiving)
*Dallas over Washington by 1 (Thanksgiving)
NFL TOTALS
**OVER: Atlanta at Minnesota Mike Vick and his teammates are getting better each week and will be operating against a horrible defense, while the Vikings are averaging close to 24 points their past five games.
UNDER: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville The Steelers lose their passing edge without Tommy Maddox, and six of the last seven games between these teams at Jacksonville has gone under the total.
UNDER: Tennessee at New York Giants Tricky winds this time of year at Giants Stadium could hurt the kickers in this matchup, which figures to have plenty of running and conservative play-calling.
DETAILED NCAA & NFL PLAYS ANALYSIS
****BEST BETS
OKLAHOMA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 32
When this game kicks off, Bob Stoops and his Sooners will not know whether or not they are in-line for an appearance in the National Championship game. There is still some more football to be played before that will be determined. What they do know is that when they took the field against these same Cowboys in Norman LY they were on track to play for it all, merely needing a win to get to the Big 12 title game, and then another to face Miami in the Rose Bowl. But they did not take care of business that day. They suffered a humiliating 16-13 defeat as 26-point favorites that they have been waiting all season to avenge. And now that the time is here, they will not only get it done, but they will get it done in style. There were no flukes in LYs loss they were dominated at the line of scrimmage by a team playing with much more passion than they were. How about zero rushing yards? Yes, that is the total that the Sooners came away with. But this is a much different offense this time, with Quentin Griffith adding such a legitimate run threat that he will star harbor Heisman hopes coming in. And Griffith gets to do his thing against a soft Cowboy defense that has shown little ability to deal with either the run or pass, holding only Nebraska to less than 400 yards in Big 12 play (Cornhuskers did run it for 259), and in recent weeks have seen Kansas and Baylor combined for 41 points, 49 first downs and 827 yards. That does not bode well for their chances against an opponent that not only wants to win, but win big, and once those floodgates have opened the lead that vaunted Sooner defense takes care of the rest. OKLAHOMA 42-10.
T.C.U.* over MEMPHIS by 28
In a season in which we have suffered some extremely difficult defeats at the top of these pages, there may not have been a more frustrating four quarters of football than T.C.U.s loss at East Carolina. We called for the Horned Frogs to completely dominate the line of scrimmage against an opponent that they could physically man-handle, and that is exactly what happened. First downs were 22-9. Rushing yardage was 268-75, with almost half (37) of the Pirate rushing yardage coming on a fake punt in the fourth quarter. Total offense was 445-236 in favor of the Horned Frogs. That should be enough for a favorite in single digits, but not only did they not get the cover they lost the whole game. And the problem was an unusual one. A fundamentally sound team that had only turned the ball over 15 times all season had seven on Saturday, including a back-breaking fumble that was returned 81 yards for a TD with 8:46 to play, at a time when they were driving to break the game open. But good teams can shake off those kinds of defeats, and with the bowl scouts watching they will revert to their previous form and play a mistake-free game in the home finale. That is all it takes against another Conference USA foe that can be overpowered right at the point of attack the Tiger neither run the football well nor defend the run, with their latter unit allowing an alarming 36 points per game on the road this season, against not exactly a powerhouse schedule. In five road outings they lost by less than 14 points only once, and even in that 31-28 defeat at South Florida they trailed by 21 points in the second half. T.C.U. 42-14.
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Nebraska* over Colorado by 12 (Friday)
One of the most watched, and subsequently most talked about, games of the 2001 campaign was the meeting between these two on a cold Friday in Boulder. The Buffaloes rolled to a 62-36 victory, and in the process created much BCS confusion and controversy. But in retrospect, most memories of that day may not be accurate. Yes, everyone will remember that Chris Brown and the Buffaloes ran off tackle at will, piling up 380 rushing yards, and 582 of total offense. What few will remember is that Nebraska also piled up 354 yards on the ground, part of a 552 total, and that it was actually an 0-4 turnover gap that caused the rout, not the physical mismatch that it is remembered as having been. Now the Cornhuskers have had 12 months to get their revenge, and they can get it in style by once again running the ball at will vs. an average, at best, Buffalo defense. Last three Colorado opponents have scored 89 points and averaged 4.7 per rush, which does not bode well for their chances for success this day. NEBRASKA 38-26.
Colorado State* over U.N.L.V. by 8
Year in and year out, there probably is no coach in the land that gets more out of less than Sonny Lubick in Fort Collins, and that was another brilliant coaching job, with the Rams entering this with a 9-2 record, a Mountain West Conference championship, and a bowl bid awaiting. But as great as those achievements were, they actually work against them a bit here. Now a schedule that goes back to August 22nd takes a bit of a toll on a squad that only has good, not great, talent, and there is also no real motivation for them to be looking for any kind of margin here. That opens the door for the hard-trying Rebels to be very alive at the price, and under John Robinson there has never been a lack of effort in any matchup. Although still an erratic passer, Jason Thomas does provide the kind of athleticism and running ability that can lead to some ball control vs. an unimposing State defense that has allowed six opponents to score 28 points or more. Lubick wins again, but not easily. COLORADO STATE 31-23.
Southern Miss* over East Carolina by 21
In our BEST BET call to T.C.U. over Memphis at the top of this page, we detail much of the frustration that cost us a play on those Horned Frogs over East Carolina last week. It can take more than a single win to make up for a defeat like that, and we think that we can grab a pair this week by playing that result inside-out. It is not as though Steve Logans Pirates only escape with one miracle how about a two week stretch in which they have trailed by 23 first downs and 452 yards, and yet managed to take each game right to the gun? That is exactly what they have done. And we could even extend it back three weeks ago, when they trailed lowly Houston by 14 in the fourth quarter before rallying to win in overtime. They could just as easily be entering this game on a five-game losing streak, and imagine how much of a difference that would mean in this price? Eagles must win this one in order to be under serious bowl consideration, with is more than enough motivation to get us the effort that we need here. SOUTHERN MISS 33-12.
Alabama over Hawaii* by 22
In some seasons the notion of traveling to play this game the week after facing Auburn would not have been very appetizing for the Crimson Tide, and could have led to an absolute flat spot. But not this particular season. For a team that been ineligible for the Coaches Poll or any bowl possibilities from the start of the season, this actually becomes a chance for them to vent a lot of frustrations. And having turned in a disappointing effort in that loss last Saturday, there is also the chance to spit out some bitter tastes. There is little that the over-rated host (has played arguably the nations weakest schedule) can do to get in the way. Alabama has the personal up front on defense to pressure the passer without having to resort to blitzes, which means plenty of athletes available for the needed coverage schemes vs. a June Jones offense, and their own relentless ground game eventually wears down the under-sized Hawaii defensive front that will have to be on the field far too long. ALABAMA 42-20.
****BEST BETS
Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
Brett Favre is going wild again. Thats not good if youre Green Bay. After playing under control for most of the season, Favre has cut loose with seven interceptions the past two games. The result has been Green Bay road losses to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Now here come the Bears, who had not won since Week 2 until beating Detroit in overtime last week. Even with that morale boost, the Bears arent going anywhere this season, and they know it. Theyre just trying to survive an injury-plagued season. They have already lost 42 different players, when last year they had 31 injuries the entire season. The Bears also have had to play all their games on the road because of remodeling to Solider Field, their home stadium. Believe it or not, this actually will be their first game on grass all season. The Bears are more suited to grass because they like to run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. This is one of the rare games the Bears have been pointing to ever since the Packers embarrassed them on Monday night earlier this season with Favre passing for 359 yards and three touchdowns. This is the oldest rivalry in professional football, and the Bears have no excuse not to be pumped. Despite their 3-7 mark, they have come close their two previous games before Detroit, losing at the very end to New England and battling the Rams on Monday night. The Bears covered both of those contests. This shows that the Bears havent quit, which is crucial when backing a large underdog. While Green Bay has defeated the Bears nine straight times in Illinois, they are 2-3 ATS the past five in Green Bay. If the point spread creeps past 10, keep in mind, too, the Packers are 0-10-2 ATS when laying 11 or more points. Green Bays run defense could be impacted if huge nose tackle Gilbert Brown (check status) is unable to play. Hes their key run stuffer. CHICAGO 26-19.
***BEST
Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
You sure wont hear any guaranteed win predictions this week from Dick LeBeau or any of his Bengals. The Bengals arent playing an expansion team this week. They also are at home. Thats bad news for the Bengals. Its even worse news for their fans, which have to watch them. You would think grocery bags would be a hot selling concession item in Cincinnati. The Bengals have yet to win or cover in five home games this season. Baltimore lost 27 players from last year due to salary cap reasons. Star middle linebacker Ray Lewis has missed six of the past seven games, and their offense ranks near the bottom. Yet the Ravens have things the Bengals totally lack. They have character, mental toughness and good coaching. Those are all foreign concepts to the Bengals. Ravens coach Brian Billick has kept his team together. This is reflected in the standings, where the Ravens are just one game under .500 and in contention for the AFC North Division title. So unlike the Bengals, the Ravens still have playoff motivation. When the teams met just three weeks ago, the Ravens won, 38-27. It was the ninth time in 11 games the Ravens have won and covered against Cincinnati. Jon Kitna has been the Bengalsbest quarterback, which certainly doesnt say much for the state of the team. Yet it wouldnt be surprising if the Bengals cheap management orders LeBeau to play someone else at quarterback because they dont want to have pay performance bonuses that would be due to Kitna. Obviously if Lewis plays, its a huge boost for the Ravens, although Ed Hartwell and Bernardo Harris have been filling in well at linebacker. But the key here is the Ravens should have enough savvy and motivation to get a victory against a listless and gutless Bengals squad that does nothing but lose. The Bengals are 3-7 ATS as an underdog, and have yet to show much life. BALTIMORE 30-13.
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Ordinarily we would stay away from the Dolphins in a cold weather site like this. Miami is 0-2 this season in cold weather, losing to Green Bay on Monday night and to the New York Jets. But there is a clear class difference here. The Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team, while the Bills are perhaps a year away. The Dolphins have the better defense and rushing attack. Miami has held its last two foes, Baltimore and San Diego, to a combined 301 yards. The Bills are allowing an average of 33.6 points at home. Not only are the Bills among the most penalized teams in the NFL, but also their offense has regressed. After scoring at least 23 points during their first eight games, the Bills have scored just seven against New England, 16 vs. Kansas City and 13 to the New York Jets. None of those defenses has ever been referred to as being especially tough. They are all clearly inferior to Miamis defense. The Dolphins also know Drew Bledsoe well, having annually gone against him when he played for New England. Prior to this season, the Dolphins had won and covered their past four meetings against Buffalo. But the Bills took advantage of Ray Lucas first start at quarterback to pick off four passes in beating the Dolphins, 23-10, on Oct. 20. Lucas has since settled down to play better, and theres a chance the Dolphins could get back theuir starting quarterback Jay Fielder (check status). MIAMI 26-16.
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
A flashy offense, exciting game-breakers and a gaudy 7-4 record cant hide that the Saints have been out-gained this season. They are more about style than substance. The Bucs are much more mundane on offense, but their defense makes plays. They have 30 takeaways and are a plus 15 in turnover ratio. The Bucs also are extremely well coached on defense. Saints QB Aaron Brooks has talent and a big arm, but hes young and prone to make mistakes. The Saints could also be without star all-purpose RB Deuce McAllister (check status). McAllister had accounted for 97 percent of New Orleansrunning game, until missing last weeks loss to Cleveland with a sprained ankle. The Saints need to score plenty of points because their defense is allowing 25.5 points per game. However, in the last two weeks the Saints have combined to score just 32 points. The Saints pass rush is down from past seasons. They have 25 sacks, after posting 53 last season. Given time, Bucs QB Brad Johnson can hurt a defense with his accuracy. Defensive lineman Norman Hand and LB Charlie Clemons are having bad seasons for the Saints. New Orleans biggest weakness, though, has been its secondary. CB Dale Carter is rusty after returning from an eight-game suspension. His return has so far failed to noticeably improve the quality of the secondary. This will be the Bucs first road game in five weeks, so they should be rested. TAMPA BAY 30-19
NCAA PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* OKLAHOMA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 32
3* T.C.U.* over MEMPHIS by 28
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Nebraska* over Colorado by 12 (Friday)
Colorado State* over U.N.L.V. by 8
Southern Miss* over East Carolina by 21
Alabama over Hawaii* by 22
NFL PLAYS SUMMARY
****BEST BETS
4* Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
3* Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
CLOSE CALLS
New England over *Detroit by 1 (Thanksgiving)
*Dallas over Washington by 1 (Thanksgiving)
NFL TOTALS
**OVER: Atlanta at Minnesota Mike Vick and his teammates are getting better each week and will be operating against a horrible defense, while the Vikings are averaging close to 24 points their past five games.
UNDER: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville The Steelers lose their passing edge without Tommy Maddox, and six of the last seven games between these teams at Jacksonville has gone under the total.
UNDER: Tennessee at New York Giants Tricky winds this time of year at Giants Stadium could hurt the kickers in this matchup, which figures to have plenty of running and conservative play-calling.
DETAILED NCAA & NFL PLAYS ANALYSIS
****BEST BETS
OKLAHOMA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 32
When this game kicks off, Bob Stoops and his Sooners will not know whether or not they are in-line for an appearance in the National Championship game. There is still some more football to be played before that will be determined. What they do know is that when they took the field against these same Cowboys in Norman LY they were on track to play for it all, merely needing a win to get to the Big 12 title game, and then another to face Miami in the Rose Bowl. But they did not take care of business that day. They suffered a humiliating 16-13 defeat as 26-point favorites that they have been waiting all season to avenge. And now that the time is here, they will not only get it done, but they will get it done in style. There were no flukes in LYs loss they were dominated at the line of scrimmage by a team playing with much more passion than they were. How about zero rushing yards? Yes, that is the total that the Sooners came away with. But this is a much different offense this time, with Quentin Griffith adding such a legitimate run threat that he will star harbor Heisman hopes coming in. And Griffith gets to do his thing against a soft Cowboy defense that has shown little ability to deal with either the run or pass, holding only Nebraska to less than 400 yards in Big 12 play (Cornhuskers did run it for 259), and in recent weeks have seen Kansas and Baylor combined for 41 points, 49 first downs and 827 yards. That does not bode well for their chances against an opponent that not only wants to win, but win big, and once those floodgates have opened the lead that vaunted Sooner defense takes care of the rest. OKLAHOMA 42-10.
T.C.U.* over MEMPHIS by 28
In a season in which we have suffered some extremely difficult defeats at the top of these pages, there may not have been a more frustrating four quarters of football than T.C.U.s loss at East Carolina. We called for the Horned Frogs to completely dominate the line of scrimmage against an opponent that they could physically man-handle, and that is exactly what happened. First downs were 22-9. Rushing yardage was 268-75, with almost half (37) of the Pirate rushing yardage coming on a fake punt in the fourth quarter. Total offense was 445-236 in favor of the Horned Frogs. That should be enough for a favorite in single digits, but not only did they not get the cover they lost the whole game. And the problem was an unusual one. A fundamentally sound team that had only turned the ball over 15 times all season had seven on Saturday, including a back-breaking fumble that was returned 81 yards for a TD with 8:46 to play, at a time when they were driving to break the game open. But good teams can shake off those kinds of defeats, and with the bowl scouts watching they will revert to their previous form and play a mistake-free game in the home finale. That is all it takes against another Conference USA foe that can be overpowered right at the point of attack the Tiger neither run the football well nor defend the run, with their latter unit allowing an alarming 36 points per game on the road this season, against not exactly a powerhouse schedule. In five road outings they lost by less than 14 points only once, and even in that 31-28 defeat at South Florida they trailed by 21 points in the second half. T.C.U. 42-14.
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Nebraska* over Colorado by 12 (Friday)
One of the most watched, and subsequently most talked about, games of the 2001 campaign was the meeting between these two on a cold Friday in Boulder. The Buffaloes rolled to a 62-36 victory, and in the process created much BCS confusion and controversy. But in retrospect, most memories of that day may not be accurate. Yes, everyone will remember that Chris Brown and the Buffaloes ran off tackle at will, piling up 380 rushing yards, and 582 of total offense. What few will remember is that Nebraska also piled up 354 yards on the ground, part of a 552 total, and that it was actually an 0-4 turnover gap that caused the rout, not the physical mismatch that it is remembered as having been. Now the Cornhuskers have had 12 months to get their revenge, and they can get it in style by once again running the ball at will vs. an average, at best, Buffalo defense. Last three Colorado opponents have scored 89 points and averaged 4.7 per rush, which does not bode well for their chances for success this day. NEBRASKA 38-26.
Colorado State* over U.N.L.V. by 8
Year in and year out, there probably is no coach in the land that gets more out of less than Sonny Lubick in Fort Collins, and that was another brilliant coaching job, with the Rams entering this with a 9-2 record, a Mountain West Conference championship, and a bowl bid awaiting. But as great as those achievements were, they actually work against them a bit here. Now a schedule that goes back to August 22nd takes a bit of a toll on a squad that only has good, not great, talent, and there is also no real motivation for them to be looking for any kind of margin here. That opens the door for the hard-trying Rebels to be very alive at the price, and under John Robinson there has never been a lack of effort in any matchup. Although still an erratic passer, Jason Thomas does provide the kind of athleticism and running ability that can lead to some ball control vs. an unimposing State defense that has allowed six opponents to score 28 points or more. Lubick wins again, but not easily. COLORADO STATE 31-23.
Southern Miss* over East Carolina by 21
In our BEST BET call to T.C.U. over Memphis at the top of this page, we detail much of the frustration that cost us a play on those Horned Frogs over East Carolina last week. It can take more than a single win to make up for a defeat like that, and we think that we can grab a pair this week by playing that result inside-out. It is not as though Steve Logans Pirates only escape with one miracle how about a two week stretch in which they have trailed by 23 first downs and 452 yards, and yet managed to take each game right to the gun? That is exactly what they have done. And we could even extend it back three weeks ago, when they trailed lowly Houston by 14 in the fourth quarter before rallying to win in overtime. They could just as easily be entering this game on a five-game losing streak, and imagine how much of a difference that would mean in this price? Eagles must win this one in order to be under serious bowl consideration, with is more than enough motivation to get us the effort that we need here. SOUTHERN MISS 33-12.
Alabama over Hawaii* by 22
In some seasons the notion of traveling to play this game the week after facing Auburn would not have been very appetizing for the Crimson Tide, and could have led to an absolute flat spot. But not this particular season. For a team that been ineligible for the Coaches Poll or any bowl possibilities from the start of the season, this actually becomes a chance for them to vent a lot of frustrations. And having turned in a disappointing effort in that loss last Saturday, there is also the chance to spit out some bitter tastes. There is little that the over-rated host (has played arguably the nations weakest schedule) can do to get in the way. Alabama has the personal up front on defense to pressure the passer without having to resort to blitzes, which means plenty of athletes available for the needed coverage schemes vs. a June Jones offense, and their own relentless ground game eventually wears down the under-sized Hawaii defensive front that will have to be on the field far too long. ALABAMA 42-20.
****BEST BETS
Chicago over *Green Bay by 7
Brett Favre is going wild again. Thats not good if youre Green Bay. After playing under control for most of the season, Favre has cut loose with seven interceptions the past two games. The result has been Green Bay road losses to Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Now here come the Bears, who had not won since Week 2 until beating Detroit in overtime last week. Even with that morale boost, the Bears arent going anywhere this season, and they know it. Theyre just trying to survive an injury-plagued season. They have already lost 42 different players, when last year they had 31 injuries the entire season. The Bears also have had to play all their games on the road because of remodeling to Solider Field, their home stadium. Believe it or not, this actually will be their first game on grass all season. The Bears are more suited to grass because they like to run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. This is one of the rare games the Bears have been pointing to ever since the Packers embarrassed them on Monday night earlier this season with Favre passing for 359 yards and three touchdowns. This is the oldest rivalry in professional football, and the Bears have no excuse not to be pumped. Despite their 3-7 mark, they have come close their two previous games before Detroit, losing at the very end to New England and battling the Rams on Monday night. The Bears covered both of those contests. This shows that the Bears havent quit, which is crucial when backing a large underdog. While Green Bay has defeated the Bears nine straight times in Illinois, they are 2-3 ATS the past five in Green Bay. If the point spread creeps past 10, keep in mind, too, the Packers are 0-10-2 ATS when laying 11 or more points. Green Bays run defense could be impacted if huge nose tackle Gilbert Brown (check status) is unable to play. Hes their key run stuffer. CHICAGO 26-19.
***BEST
Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 17
You sure wont hear any guaranteed win predictions this week from Dick LeBeau or any of his Bengals. The Bengals arent playing an expansion team this week. They also are at home. Thats bad news for the Bengals. Its even worse news for their fans, which have to watch them. You would think grocery bags would be a hot selling concession item in Cincinnati. The Bengals have yet to win or cover in five home games this season. Baltimore lost 27 players from last year due to salary cap reasons. Star middle linebacker Ray Lewis has missed six of the past seven games, and their offense ranks near the bottom. Yet the Ravens have things the Bengals totally lack. They have character, mental toughness and good coaching. Those are all foreign concepts to the Bengals. Ravens coach Brian Billick has kept his team together. This is reflected in the standings, where the Ravens are just one game under .500 and in contention for the AFC North Division title. So unlike the Bengals, the Ravens still have playoff motivation. When the teams met just three weeks ago, the Ravens won, 38-27. It was the ninth time in 11 games the Ravens have won and covered against Cincinnati. Jon Kitna has been the Bengalsbest quarterback, which certainly doesnt say much for the state of the team. Yet it wouldnt be surprising if the Bengals cheap management orders LeBeau to play someone else at quarterback because they dont want to have pay performance bonuses that would be due to Kitna. Obviously if Lewis plays, its a huge boost for the Ravens, although Ed Hartwell and Bernardo Harris have been filling in well at linebacker. But the key here is the Ravens should have enough savvy and motivation to get a victory against a listless and gutless Bengals squad that does nothing but lose. The Bengals are 3-7 ATS as an underdog, and have yet to show much life. BALTIMORE 30-13.
**PREFERRED PLAYS
Miami over *Buffalo by 10
Ordinarily we would stay away from the Dolphins in a cold weather site like this. Miami is 0-2 this season in cold weather, losing to Green Bay on Monday night and to the New York Jets. But there is a clear class difference here. The Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team, while the Bills are perhaps a year away. The Dolphins have the better defense and rushing attack. Miami has held its last two foes, Baltimore and San Diego, to a combined 301 yards. The Bills are allowing an average of 33.6 points at home. Not only are the Bills among the most penalized teams in the NFL, but also their offense has regressed. After scoring at least 23 points during their first eight games, the Bills have scored just seven against New England, 16 vs. Kansas City and 13 to the New York Jets. None of those defenses has ever been referred to as being especially tough. They are all clearly inferior to Miamis defense. The Dolphins also know Drew Bledsoe well, having annually gone against him when he played for New England. Prior to this season, the Dolphins had won and covered their past four meetings against Buffalo. But the Bills took advantage of Ray Lucas first start at quarterback to pick off four passes in beating the Dolphins, 23-10, on Oct. 20. Lucas has since settled down to play better, and theres a chance the Dolphins could get back theuir starting quarterback Jay Fielder (check status). MIAMI 26-16.
Tampa Bay over *New Orleans by 11
A flashy offense, exciting game-breakers and a gaudy 7-4 record cant hide that the Saints have been out-gained this season. They are more about style than substance. The Bucs are much more mundane on offense, but their defense makes plays. They have 30 takeaways and are a plus 15 in turnover ratio. The Bucs also are extremely well coached on defense. Saints QB Aaron Brooks has talent and a big arm, but hes young and prone to make mistakes. The Saints could also be without star all-purpose RB Deuce McAllister (check status). McAllister had accounted for 97 percent of New Orleansrunning game, until missing last weeks loss to Cleveland with a sprained ankle. The Saints need to score plenty of points because their defense is allowing 25.5 points per game. However, in the last two weeks the Saints have combined to score just 32 points. The Saints pass rush is down from past seasons. They have 25 sacks, after posting 53 last season. Given time, Bucs QB Brad Johnson can hurt a defense with his accuracy. Defensive lineman Norman Hand and LB Charlie Clemons are having bad seasons for the Saints. New Orleans biggest weakness, though, has been its secondary. CB Dale Carter is rusty after returning from an eight-game suspension. His return has so far failed to noticeably improve the quality of the secondary. This will be the Bucs first road game in five weeks, so they should be rested. TAMPA BAY 30-19