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HELLO EVERYBODY AND WELCOME TO THE 2005 FOOTBALL SEASON. HOPE EVERYBODY IS WELL RESTED FOR THIS YEAR AND READY TO MAKE SOME MONEY. FOR THOSE NEWCOMERS I HAVE BEEN HERE OVER 5 YEARS AND TO DATE HAVE NEVER HAD A LOSING SEASON. FOOTBALL IS THE ONLY SPORT I HANDICAP AND SPEND CLOSE TO 35 HOURS A EACH AND EVERY WEEK. I PLAY EVERY GAME WITH MY OWN MONEY THAT I RELEASE SO IF YOU LOSE I LOSE AND I DO NOT LIKE TO LOSE. THE FIRST FEW WEEKS I WILL ONLY BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $100/UNIT WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 1/2 OF WHAT I WILL NORMALLY BET, SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. AS ALWAYS, BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* WASHINGTON +8.5
2* ARMY +28 Added
1* KANSAS STATE -10
1* STANFORD -3
1* SOUTHERN METHODIST UNIVERISTY +16
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CALIFORNIA (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 3:30 PM
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Analysis
Analysis forthcoming check back later
ARMY (0 - 0) at BOSTON COLLEGE (1 - 0)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 12:30 PM
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Analysis
WOW…Bobby Ross isn't getting a lot of respect with this betting line. He begins his second season at Army, and they played very hard for him, averaging over 23 points. Offense is again the strength of the team, especially the ground attack, with RB Carlton Jones (1,269 yards, 17 TDs, 6 yards per carry), QB Zac Dahman, and a good offensive line. Army averaged an impressive 176 yards rushing, 205 passing in 2004. However, I’m sure the reason for the +28 spread is that their defense was awful, giving up over 200 yards on the ground and 35 points per game. Also the trends are horrendous as Army is just 1-20 SU, 10-11 ATS its last 21 road games. Boston College (1-0 SU/ATS) already has a game under its belt, winning 20-3 at BYU as QB Quinton Porter passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns. BC has a versatile offense which should move the ball against Army, but note that the BC defense didn't play all that well last week despite allowing only 3 points. The BYU quarterback completed 41 of 60 passes for 330 yards! In addition, there are 10 New Englanders on the Army grid roster, with six players hailing from Massachusetts, two from New Hampshire and two from Connecticut a "homecoming" for many Army players. Army has the offense and good coaching to keep this close.
This is really a tricky spot for the now overvalued home favs, as BC’s got much-anticipated showdown against Florida State on deck. BC knows exactly what his task is here – get the win, keep everyone healthy, and then move on, with that huge home showdown next week. That by itself helps to keep this one close, since the Eagles lack big play ability on offense and will be content to work the clock with their power ground game. Moreover, Army HC Ross has had one full season to instill his playbook, and also his tough grit attitude. And that means solid fundamental football, with a full level of intensity for the full 60 minutes. It will also mean a lot of point spread ****** in the big underdog role, and this is a prime spot to take advantage. This is a very generous number so take the points.
Forecast: Army 17, Boston College 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ARMY +28
STANFORD (0 - 0) at NAVY (0 - 1)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 6:00 PM
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Analysis
An interesting non-conference game, and a long road trip for Stanford. New head coach Walt Harris takes over at Stanford after spending the last 8 years at Pitt. Harris is a proponent of an aggressive passing attack that spreads the field. Harris has named senior quarterback Trent Edwards as the starter this game (Edwards passed for 1,732 yards with 9 TDs and 11 INTs last fall). Edwards will likely improve under Harris' tutelage, and Stanford does have veteran receiving targets in senior Mark Bradford and 6-foot-7 senior Evan Moore. Stanford will go with a 3-4 defense and has excellent run stoppers in nose tackle Casey Carroll and linebacker Michael Okwo. Stanford allowed an impressive 81 rush yards per game in 2004, just 2.5 yards per carry! That will be the key this game, as Navy is all about running the football in their option attack. Navy averaged 289 rush yards per game, 5 yards per carry, last season and is led on the ground by senior QB Lamar Owens and RB Matt Hall. Owens impressed last week with 122 rush yards (6.4 ypc) with his legs, but only completed 5-of-11 passes in a 23-20 home loss to Maryland. The Navy defense was beat up, allowing 427 total yards, 210 rushing, to the Terrapins. Navy coach Paul Johnson is very good and innovative, and last week surprised Maryland with a fake punt midway through the third quarter. Navy keeps this close, but Stanford has the run stuffers and a new aggressive offense under Walt Harris. With such a good price I’m going to take my chances with the Cardinal.
Forecast: Stanford 24, Navy 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON STANFORD -3
KANSAS ST (1 - 0) at MARSHALL (1 - 0)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 10:30 AM
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Analysis
The Big 12 meets a new member of Conference USA. In one of the more stunning upsets of 2003, Marshall went to Manhattan as 20-point underdogs and beat the Wildcats 27-20. Kansas State got a win in the opener. Although, Kansas State had almost twice as many rushing attempts and had an edge in total yards 407-236. RB Thomas Clayton was the big story, with 177 rush yards on only 10 carries! The Wildcats also have QB Allen Webb, who is a run and pass threat. For the home team, this game has been designated "Bobby Pruett Day." Longtime Marshall coach Pruett stepped down and will be honored. Marshall's new coach is Mark Snyder (Ohio State's defensive coordinator last season.) Marshall (1-0) didn't look very good in its first game under the new coach, giving up 359 yards in a 36-24 win at home over Division 1AA William & Mary. Marshall trailed 24-23 late in the third quarter but came back behind backup sophomore QB Bernie Morris (15-of-23, 215 yards, 3 TDs, one INT). William & Mary tore up a suspect and rebuilding Marshall run defense for 155 rushing yards, 4.2 ypc. And now they have to face run-oriented Kansas State! Marshall played very well against Ohio State and Georgia last season (both on the road), but they have a brand new coach and a suspect run 'D', making their past successes moot in my mind. The local papers are saying that Kansas State hasn't forgotten their embarrassing loss in 2003, which was one of only two non-conference home losses since 1990. They won't be a 20-point dog and Marshall sure isn't the easiest to beat on its home field, but, there is some nice value in this short price so lets lay the number with Kansas State. They should be able to move the ball at will on the ground.
Forecast: Kansas St 28, Marshall 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS STATE -9
TCU (1 - 0) at SMU (0 - 1)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/3/2005 8:00 PM
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Analysis
Let down? Or blowout? This could be a once-in-a-blue moon opportunity for underdog players, who find a well-fed double-digit road favorite that won outright as a road underdog the week before. The Horned Frogs are off the the biggest upset in school history, winning 17-10 at Oklahoma as a 24-point dog. All right, so TCU had a 6-0 decision over No. 1 Texas in 1961. But who outside of Texas remembers that? There's no doubt TCU has a deep and talented offense behind QB Tye Gunn and RBs Lonta Hobbs and Bob Merrill. However, what stood out Saturday was the revamped defense which held Oklahoma to 225 total yards of offense. Sooner Heisman Trophy candidate Adrian Peterson was limited to 63 yards rushing on 22 carries (2.9 per attempt).
There is no disputing how poor SMU was last year. SMU runs a pro-style, multiple offense, but they were outscored by a 38-18 average last fall. Senior QB Jerad Romo has not played much, and this team lost 28-23 to Baylor last week. But this is a chance to reverse a prior-season, regional-rivalry, 44-0 road loss in which the 6-3, 230-pound starting QB was injured early is what coaches of low-profile, college underdogs live for. In the words of SMU head coach Phil Bennett after the TCU game last season: “On the first series of the game, we had four of our defensive starters get hurt and it really limited what we could do. There were four packages that we practiced all week that we couldn’t use…it really hurt us.” Going into that game, SMU was already the youngest 2004 defense in the nation. The only possible outcome after the injuries was for SMU replacements to be repeatedly violated and abused. New year, new situation! And four different defensive packages that weren’t used last season ready to be sprung upon TCU for the first time. Sure, TCU drops in class from Oklahoma last Saturday while SMU moves up several notches from Baylor. But SMU hates them much more than Oklahoma does, and the Tulane team now practicing at SMU can tell Bennett and staff anything else about TCU that they didn’t already know.
Simply put, I am just not interested in laying points with non-conference road favorite who’s presumably overvalued in TCU, which is stuck in its first-ever Mountain West Conference look-ahead, when next week they are home vs. the defending champ…Utah! Also Mark Lawrence is telling us that TCU is just 1-8 ATS in its second road game of the season.
Projected Score: TCU 21, SMU 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SMU +16
NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
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SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
2* WASHINGTON +8.5
2* ARMY +28 Added
1* KANSAS STATE -10
1* STANFORD -3
1* SOUTHERN METHODIST UNIVERISTY +16
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CALIFORNIA (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 3:30 PM
vs Analysis
Analysis forthcoming check back later
ARMY (0 - 0) at BOSTON COLLEGE (1 - 0)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 12:30 PM
vs Analysis
WOW…Bobby Ross isn't getting a lot of respect with this betting line. He begins his second season at Army, and they played very hard for him, averaging over 23 points. Offense is again the strength of the team, especially the ground attack, with RB Carlton Jones (1,269 yards, 17 TDs, 6 yards per carry), QB Zac Dahman, and a good offensive line. Army averaged an impressive 176 yards rushing, 205 passing in 2004. However, I’m sure the reason for the +28 spread is that their defense was awful, giving up over 200 yards on the ground and 35 points per game. Also the trends are horrendous as Army is just 1-20 SU, 10-11 ATS its last 21 road games. Boston College (1-0 SU/ATS) already has a game under its belt, winning 20-3 at BYU as QB Quinton Porter passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns. BC has a versatile offense which should move the ball against Army, but note that the BC defense didn't play all that well last week despite allowing only 3 points. The BYU quarterback completed 41 of 60 passes for 330 yards! In addition, there are 10 New Englanders on the Army grid roster, with six players hailing from Massachusetts, two from New Hampshire and two from Connecticut a "homecoming" for many Army players. Army has the offense and good coaching to keep this close.
This is really a tricky spot for the now overvalued home favs, as BC’s got much-anticipated showdown against Florida State on deck. BC knows exactly what his task is here – get the win, keep everyone healthy, and then move on, with that huge home showdown next week. That by itself helps to keep this one close, since the Eagles lack big play ability on offense and will be content to work the clock with their power ground game. Moreover, Army HC Ross has had one full season to instill his playbook, and also his tough grit attitude. And that means solid fundamental football, with a full level of intensity for the full 60 minutes. It will also mean a lot of point spread ****** in the big underdog role, and this is a prime spot to take advantage. This is a very generous number so take the points.
Forecast: Army 17, Boston College 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON ARMY +28
STANFORD (0 - 0) at NAVY (0 - 1)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 6:00 PM
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An interesting non-conference game, and a long road trip for Stanford. New head coach Walt Harris takes over at Stanford after spending the last 8 years at Pitt. Harris is a proponent of an aggressive passing attack that spreads the field. Harris has named senior quarterback Trent Edwards as the starter this game (Edwards passed for 1,732 yards with 9 TDs and 11 INTs last fall). Edwards will likely improve under Harris' tutelage, and Stanford does have veteran receiving targets in senior Mark Bradford and 6-foot-7 senior Evan Moore. Stanford will go with a 3-4 defense and has excellent run stoppers in nose tackle Casey Carroll and linebacker Michael Okwo. Stanford allowed an impressive 81 rush yards per game in 2004, just 2.5 yards per carry! That will be the key this game, as Navy is all about running the football in their option attack. Navy averaged 289 rush yards per game, 5 yards per carry, last season and is led on the ground by senior QB Lamar Owens and RB Matt Hall. Owens impressed last week with 122 rush yards (6.4 ypc) with his legs, but only completed 5-of-11 passes in a 23-20 home loss to Maryland. The Navy defense was beat up, allowing 427 total yards, 210 rushing, to the Terrapins. Navy coach Paul Johnson is very good and innovative, and last week surprised Maryland with a fake punt midway through the third quarter. Navy keeps this close, but Stanford has the run stuffers and a new aggressive offense under Walt Harris. With such a good price I’m going to take my chances with the Cardinal.
Forecast: Stanford 24, Navy 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON STANFORD -3
KANSAS ST (1 - 0) at MARSHALL (1 - 0)
Week 2 Saturday, 9/10/2005 10:30 AM
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The Big 12 meets a new member of Conference USA. In one of the more stunning upsets of 2003, Marshall went to Manhattan as 20-point underdogs and beat the Wildcats 27-20. Kansas State got a win in the opener. Although, Kansas State had almost twice as many rushing attempts and had an edge in total yards 407-236. RB Thomas Clayton was the big story, with 177 rush yards on only 10 carries! The Wildcats also have QB Allen Webb, who is a run and pass threat. For the home team, this game has been designated "Bobby Pruett Day." Longtime Marshall coach Pruett stepped down and will be honored. Marshall's new coach is Mark Snyder (Ohio State's defensive coordinator last season.) Marshall (1-0) didn't look very good in its first game under the new coach, giving up 359 yards in a 36-24 win at home over Division 1AA William & Mary. Marshall trailed 24-23 late in the third quarter but came back behind backup sophomore QB Bernie Morris (15-of-23, 215 yards, 3 TDs, one INT). William & Mary tore up a suspect and rebuilding Marshall run defense for 155 rushing yards, 4.2 ypc. And now they have to face run-oriented Kansas State! Marshall played very well against Ohio State and Georgia last season (both on the road), but they have a brand new coach and a suspect run 'D', making their past successes moot in my mind. The local papers are saying that Kansas State hasn't forgotten their embarrassing loss in 2003, which was one of only two non-conference home losses since 1990. They won't be a 20-point dog and Marshall sure isn't the easiest to beat on its home field, but, there is some nice value in this short price so lets lay the number with Kansas State. They should be able to move the ball at will on the ground.
Forecast: Kansas St 28, Marshall 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON KANSAS STATE -9
TCU (1 - 0) at SMU (0 - 1)
Week 1 Saturday, 9/3/2005 8:00 PM
vs Analysis
Let down? Or blowout? This could be a once-in-a-blue moon opportunity for underdog players, who find a well-fed double-digit road favorite that won outright as a road underdog the week before. The Horned Frogs are off the the biggest upset in school history, winning 17-10 at Oklahoma as a 24-point dog. All right, so TCU had a 6-0 decision over No. 1 Texas in 1961. But who outside of Texas remembers that? There's no doubt TCU has a deep and talented offense behind QB Tye Gunn and RBs Lonta Hobbs and Bob Merrill. However, what stood out Saturday was the revamped defense which held Oklahoma to 225 total yards of offense. Sooner Heisman Trophy candidate Adrian Peterson was limited to 63 yards rushing on 22 carries (2.9 per attempt).
There is no disputing how poor SMU was last year. SMU runs a pro-style, multiple offense, but they were outscored by a 38-18 average last fall. Senior QB Jerad Romo has not played much, and this team lost 28-23 to Baylor last week. But this is a chance to reverse a prior-season, regional-rivalry, 44-0 road loss in which the 6-3, 230-pound starting QB was injured early is what coaches of low-profile, college underdogs live for. In the words of SMU head coach Phil Bennett after the TCU game last season: “On the first series of the game, we had four of our defensive starters get hurt and it really limited what we could do. There were four packages that we practiced all week that we couldn’t use…it really hurt us.” Going into that game, SMU was already the youngest 2004 defense in the nation. The only possible outcome after the injuries was for SMU replacements to be repeatedly violated and abused. New year, new situation! And four different defensive packages that weren’t used last season ready to be sprung upon TCU for the first time. Sure, TCU drops in class from Oklahoma last Saturday while SMU moves up several notches from Baylor. But SMU hates them much more than Oklahoma does, and the Tulane team now practicing at SMU can tell Bennett and staff anything else about TCU that they didn’t already know.
Simply put, I am just not interested in laying points with non-conference road favorite who’s presumably overvalued in TCU, which is stuck in its first-ever Mountain West Conference look-ahead, when next week they are home vs. the defending champ…Utah! Also Mark Lawrence is telling us that TCU is just 1-8 ATS in its second road game of the season.
Projected Score: TCU 21, SMU 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SMU +16
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