HUGE play for Saturday

[STaylor36]

9-7-0 (+4.03 units)

9/10

Ohio St. -1 (-108) vs. Texas 10**********

I remember about 8 months ago when I first heard that these two teams were getting together in Columbus. I said to a friend of mine "I really hope that line is close to a pick'em, so I can pound the Buckeyes." I was going to wait until Saturday and post this with the rest of my card, but I saw the line move from PK to -1 and decided to pounce on it. I suggest you all do the same as well.

I have always felt that the Big 12 conference is BY FAR the most overrated conference in college football. They beat up on each other, but when the big boys from the Big 12 get together with the big boys from the other major conferences, they rarely come out on top. 7 Big 12 teams have gone to BCS Bowls in the last 4 years. Those teams have compiled records of 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, including 0-3 SU and ATS in national championship games, despite almost always being favored. Keep in mind that those games are being played on neutral fields, whereas Saturday's game will be played in front of a hostile Buckeyes crowd.

Ohio St. is absolutely loaded this season, returning 17 starters from last year's team which hammered Oklahoma St. (a Big 12 team that gave Texas a scare at home last year) in the Alamo Bowl. It is true that Vince Young and Texas beat the Big 10's Michigan in the Rose Bowl last season, but the fact is that Saturday's game will be very different than that one for the Horns. Michigan struggled terribly against mobile QBs last year (OSU's Troy Smith ate them up as well) and that game was played in California. The neutral atmosphere of that game will be a far cry from the 100,000 or so Buckeyes fan that will crowd into the Horseshoe for this one.

Ohio St. will crowd the line in this game and they should be able to keep Young in check (as best as anyone can) with their group of outstanding LBs. Young will be forced to beat Ohio St. with his arm, something that he simply cannot do. This isn't UL Lafayette folks. Kudos to Mack Brown for sacking up and scheduling a brutal out of conference game, but he will be regretting it by the time this one is over.


Ohio St. wins this one easily, 31-14.



I'll post the rest of my plays later in the week.

[mgdog96]

GL on your pick.

[phantom]

goodluck!

[orientalhawn]

good luck on saturday!!

[STaylor36]

Adding a couple plays....

9/10

Minnesota -13 (-108) vs. Colorado St. 2**

Golden Gophers RB Laurence Maroney looked like a Heisman candidate against Tulsa last week and he should be able to find some big holes in this game. Minnesota has been outstanding in out of conference play recently, posting a record of 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games outside the Big 10. That record includes a 34-18 win last season on the road against the Rams. Despite covering the spread last week against Colorado, the Rams are just 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games away from home.

Toledo -22 (-102) vs. Western Michigan 2**

I have to go with Toledo Tom Amstutz and the defending MAC champions in this one. The Rockets are an INSANE 20-5 ATS in their last 25 MAC games, and have gone 10-2 ATS in conference play at home over the last 3 seasons. Toledo beat Western Michigan 59-33 last year on the road.

Miami (OH) -22 (105) vs. Central Michigan 2*

The Redhawks could not get anything done last week in Columbus, but I am willing to bet that it was a result of an outstanding Buckeyes defense and not a poor Miami offense. QB Josh Betts and WRs Martin Nance and Ryne Robinson will no doubt be eager to prove me right against the Chippewas. Miami (OH) is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 MAC home games. This line may change as CMU's star running back Jerry Seymour was charged with 2nd degree murder today!

North Texas (+163) @ Middle Tennessee St. 1*

I feel like this a very good value play considering that North Texas has won 25 straight Sun Belt games SU. Joey Byerly will be making his first career start at QB for the Mean Green, but they should be able to control the clock with RBs Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas, the last two national rushing champs.




I will post more before Saturday.

[rocko]

glllllllllll nice write up peace

[bwade210]

GL but your info. on the Big 12 Conference is inaccurate as well as your final score prediction! IF....... Ohio State wins, it will be by 3 or less!

[keawe]

Goodluck this weekend Taylor!!!!!

[STaylor36]

GL but your info. on the Big 12 Conference is inaccurate as well as your final score prediction! IF....... Ohio State wins, it will be by 3 or less!

After seeing your post, I went back to check on the trend I posted on Big 12 teams in BCS bowl games. It checked out exactly right.


2001

Rose Bowl (Title Game) Nebraska +8 vs. Miami L 14-37
Fiesta Bowl Colorado -3 vs. Oregon L 16-38

2002

Rose Bowl Oklahoma -6 vs. Washington St. W 34-14

2003

Sugar Bowl (Title Game) Oklahoma -6 vs. LSU L 14-21
Fiesta Bowl Kansas St. -7 vs. Ohio St. L 28-35

2004

Orange Bowl (Title Game) Oklahoma +1 vs. USC L 19-55
Rose Bowl Texas -7 vs. Michigan L 38-37


Those numbers add up to 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as I posted. Also 0-3 SU and ATS in title games like I said. It's no big deal, I just don't like being told my information is inaccurate when it is right.

If Ohio St. wins by 3 I'd glady take that. A win's a win.


Good luck to you this weekend.

[frankb03]

GL this weekend

[chiser15]

appreciate all the good info, gl to you

[RJeremy]

gl buddy

[BrezzeEaze]

Good Luck with the picks this weekend Taylor

[STaylor36]

Putting the finishing touches on my NCAA Football Card....

9/10

LSU (+105) @ Arizona St. 2**

This game was moved from Baton Rouge to Tempe due to Hurricane Katrina and the line moved with it from LSU -7 to LSU +1.5. I don't have any fancy trends to share here, I just think that LSU is a better team than the Sun Devils and that they will win this game. On offense, the Tigers are returning 10 starters, and bring back QB JaMarcus Russell, who shared time with starter Marcus Randall last year. On defense, LSU brings back 8 more starters, including studs DT Kyle Williams and FS LaRon Landry. The Tigers are the better team and they will find a way to win this game on the road.

Marshall +9.5 (-107) vs. Kansas St. 1*

I think the oddsmakers are giving the Herd too many points at home in this one. Marshall has been impressive ATS against teams from major conferences recently, covering the spread @ Ohio St. and @ Georgia last year, and covering @ Tennessee and @ Kansas St. (they won that game SU) in 2003. The team does appear to be in a rebuilding mode this season, but they should have enough to cover this number against a Kansas St. team that is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 non-Big 12 games. Keep an eye on Marshall sophomore WR Marcus Fitzgerald, the younger brother of the Arizona Cardinals Larry.

Syracuse -24 (-102) vs. Buffalo 1*

Syracuse's offense had to be embarassed by their performance against West Virginia on Sunday, and I'm sure that the coaches have been ripping into them all week long. As inept as the Orange offense looked, a lot of credit has to go to a WVU defense that boasts of one of the best secondaries in the nation. Buffalo, on the other hand, appears to be an easy way for the Orange offense to get back on track. The Bulls dropped their first game of the season 38-0 to Connecticut last Thursday, and their offense might have trouble scoring again this week against a solid Syracuse defense. Despite Sunday's loss, Syracuse is 10-2 ATS over their last 12 home games, and 23-8 ATS at the Carrier Dome since 2000. Not surprisingly, Buffalo is 3-10 ATS over their last 13 road games.

Stanford @ Navy UNDER 47 (-105) 1*

I had Under 42 in the Navy-Maryland game on Saturday and was dealt a heartbreaking loss as Maryland scored late and converted a 2 point conversion to win 23-20. I am going to play the Navy Under card again this week against a Stanford team that will be playing its first game in the West Coast offense of new Head Coach Walt Harris. The UNDER is 16-5 in all Stanford games over the last 2 seasons, including 8-2 in 2004.


I don't see anything I like in Thursday or Friday night college football and decided to pass on the Pats-Raiders game.

I'll post my NFL plays before Sunday.



Good luck this weekend guys!

[STaylor36]

Week 2 Recap

Wow.

An absolutely gut wrenching loss in the Ohio St. game as my 10* play crashes and burns. I thought I did a decent job capping games this week (except for that Navy game.....what a terrible pick) and my other 8 plays went 6-2. However, I got caught with my hand in the cookie jar on the Buckeyes. As tempting as it may be to take a shot down field from time to time, it just doesn't ever seem to end the way you want it. I really thought we had that win tonight too. There were so many plays that if any of them go the Buckeyes way they win. What a heartbreaker. Anyways, the only thing I can do now is pick myself up off the floor and rebound.


After 2 weeks I find myself with a seemingly very respectable record of 16-10, but I am only up 0.08 units thanks to the 10* loser. Ouch. I'll post all my Week 3 plays again and try to get over this loss......

Congrats to the Horns bettors and to the Big 12. I grossly underestimated you.