NCAA ML Parlay for Monday

[JustAGuy]

NCAA YTD 2-0 (+4.0 units)

Monday

2 units

Money line Parlay:

New Mexico
Miami,Fla

risking 2 units to win 1.71 units

Let's have a great day, everyone!
JAG

[trick4]

Good Luck JAG!

[Homer]

GL on the plays today Bud

[ChuckLazar]

GL Guy....

[Kaptain]

Thats a shrewd play---kapt

[JustAGuy]

Thanks, guys! Hope you win em all today!
JAG

[moondog22]

best of luck Guy

[griffey_mojo]

GL today JAG!

[Spearit]

GL Parlays of this magnitude 25 % chance of hitting- GL Bring it in.

[JustAGuy]

Thanks again guys!

Spearit- I'd be interested in seeing your math. I try to calculate my risks to a degree, but have never been a straight math guy. If I have a 25% chance of winning this bet, I've really made a stupid play (especially considering I'm GIVING juice). However, I would really like to know the math behind your comment. My reasoning is far simpler than a math equation. I don't doubt it could be flawed. That's why I love this forum! I love learning from you guys.

Here's my reasoning:
In handicapping the Miami/FSU game, I give Miami a solid edge. I have their defense rated extraordinarily highly. I believe they will force turnovers tonight. However, the history of these two teams suggest a close game (just over 4 pts ave margin recently). Also, FSU has home field advantage and Miami starts a young QB. Therefore, I feel more comfortable operating within a moneyline framework. A straight 2 unit bet with Miami returns only 1.25 units. Although I realize I am assuming more risk adding another game to the equation, I felt adding New Mexico was worth the risk. I see them as winning by a margin of between 14 and 20 points. Therefore, I felt adding NM (straight up!) to the equation and getting nearly a half unit in return provided good value.

I'd be interested on hearing your thoughts as to how adding a ML play with a 15 point favorite would lower my chances of winning from at least a 50% proposition (Miami IS favored) to a 25% chance. Not trying to argue, just wanting to learn from ya.
JAG

[JustAGuy]

Spearit??

GL Parlays of this magnitude 25 % chance of hitting- GL Bring it in.

I'd be interested in seeing your math. I try to calculate my risks to a degree, but have never been a straight math guy. If I have a 25% chance of winning this bet, I've really made a stupid play (especially considering I'm GIVING juice). However, I would really like to know the math behind your comment. My reasoning is far simpler than a math equation. I don't doubt it could be flawed. That's why I love this forum! I love learning from you guys.

Here's my reasoning:
In handicapping the Miami/FSU game, I give Miami a solid edge. I have their defense rated extraordinarily highly. I believe they will force turnovers tonight. However, the history of these two teams suggest a close game (just over 4 pts ave margin recently). Also, FSU has home field advantage and Miami starts a young QB. Therefore, I feel more comfortable operating within a moneyline framework. A straight 2 unit bet with Miami returns only 1.25 units. Although I realize I am assuming more risk adding another game to the equation, I felt adding New Mexico was worth the risk. I see them as winning by a margin of between 14 and 20 points. Therefore, I felt adding NM (straight up!) to the equation and getting nearly a half unit in return provided good value.

I'd be interested on hearing your thoughts as to how adding a ML play with a 15 point favorite would lower my chances of winning from at least a 50% proposition (Miami IS favored) to a 25% chance. Not trying to argue, just wanting to learn from ya.
JAG

[Spearit]

Not a problem Just a guy.
Plays are given a 50-50 chance of hitting. If you look at the figures - you might get some advantages in making a pick- however, it is proven that public conception of winning plays is generally below 50 %. Thus Vegas makes its money. Now double up on that fact and you have approximately a 25% chance of hitting your play. I play parlays and believe I have hit at roughly 35-40 % of them which makes them winners. However- I did not mean to let the steam out of your picks but to remind you of how hard parlays are to win on- no matter how much you like the plays.

[Spearit]

However, if I may add- since you are playing the ML on teams considered to be favorites to win and you parlay them- Should win. I hope the Fla Stae fade doesn't bite- but this play warrants a higher percentage than 25% since you are cutting out the odds- I figure 1-3 % points per odds you are saving. Say Miami is -3 then you must win by one ML - so your bet is 2x3 or 6 % in your favor. Thats 56% chance it hits- but you have to look at the opening line to get the true value here. GL on Miami and I mean that.

[LSUTyger]

Deep thinker. Definitely appreciate your input Spear. Only documented by my sportsbook.com account but a 1-2 dollar(only nickels were V. Tech, and G. Tech under 38)player is up almost 4 stacks of high society this weekend with Memphis -2', Miami -3 and the Stros pending.

Thanks buddy!!!