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WAKE FOREST (-8.0) 30 Vanderbilt 29
04:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-01 - Stats Matchup
Vanderbilt is a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more.
Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe uses deception on offense to help his team compete against more talented teams, but the Demon Deacons’ mediocre talent tends to result in competitive games against lesser teams as well. The result is a 17-9-1 ATS record as a dog in Grobe’s 4 seasons and a 4-12 ATS record when favored, as is the case here. Vanderbilt is a team with similar talent and a quarterback in Jay Cutler (a 4th year starter) who can carve up a suspect Wake Forest secondary that must replace two high-caliber cornerbacks (including NFL draft choice Eric King) and deal with the one game suspension of CB Riley Swanson, who is likely going to be the star of this year’s secondary. Cutler performed well last season (7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 5 interceptions) despite poor protection from his offensive line, but the line appears to be a bit better and Wake Forest has a very weak pass rush. With time to throw, Cutler should post good numbers against a defense that allowed 6.4 yards per pass play (against a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.9 yppp against an average defense) last season despite having two good cornerbacks (who are no longer on the team). In Wake Forest’s final scrimmage last Wednesday, the JV offense dominated the Deacons’ first team defense through the air and that bodes well for Cutler in this game. Like Wake Forest, Vanderbilt is also below average defensively (I rate them the same as Wake’s defense) and the Demon Deacons’ healthy ground attack should move the ball pretty effectively too. Wake Forest averaged a solid 4.7 yards per rushing play last season (against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average offense) and the offensive line should prove to be the best of Grobe’s tenure. Chris Barclay, a 1st Team All-ACC back, has been suspended for this game, but I actually think Barclay’s suspension could help Wake’s rushing attack in this game since he averaged a modest 4.2 ypr and backup Micah Andrews is more talented. Overall, these teams are pretty even from the line of scrimmage and it is Vanderbilt’s poor special teams and Wake Forest’s home field advantage that have my overall ratings favoring the Demon Deacons by 7 points. Aside from the line value favoring the Commodores, Wake applies to a negative 31-71-2 ATS game 1 home favorite situation (if they are favored by more than 7 points), so Vandy is certainly the side to take in this game – especially given Grobe’s history as a favorite. It’s also comforting that Wake Forest only beat one Division 1A team by more than 3 points last season and they didn’t even cover the spread in that game (a 14 point win as a 14 ½ point favorite at East Carolina). Vanderbilt, meanwhile, lost 5 games by 5 points or less last season and are 8-3 ATS recently getting 6 points or more, so they should be able to at least keep this game close.
Downgrade Vanderbilt to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 8 points
04:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-01 - Stats Matchup
Vanderbilt is a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more.
Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe uses deception on offense to help his team compete against more talented teams, but the Demon Deacons’ mediocre talent tends to result in competitive games against lesser teams as well. The result is a 17-9-1 ATS record as a dog in Grobe’s 4 seasons and a 4-12 ATS record when favored, as is the case here. Vanderbilt is a team with similar talent and a quarterback in Jay Cutler (a 4th year starter) who can carve up a suspect Wake Forest secondary that must replace two high-caliber cornerbacks (including NFL draft choice Eric King) and deal with the one game suspension of CB Riley Swanson, who is likely going to be the star of this year’s secondary. Cutler performed well last season (7.7 yards per pass attempt and only 5 interceptions) despite poor protection from his offensive line, but the line appears to be a bit better and Wake Forest has a very weak pass rush. With time to throw, Cutler should post good numbers against a defense that allowed 6.4 yards per pass play (against a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.9 yppp against an average defense) last season despite having two good cornerbacks (who are no longer on the team). In Wake Forest’s final scrimmage last Wednesday, the JV offense dominated the Deacons’ first team defense through the air and that bodes well for Cutler in this game. Like Wake Forest, Vanderbilt is also below average defensively (I rate them the same as Wake’s defense) and the Demon Deacons’ healthy ground attack should move the ball pretty effectively too. Wake Forest averaged a solid 4.7 yards per rushing play last season (against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average offense) and the offensive line should prove to be the best of Grobe’s tenure. Chris Barclay, a 1st Team All-ACC back, has been suspended for this game, but I actually think Barclay’s suspension could help Wake’s rushing attack in this game since he averaged a modest 4.2 ypr and backup Micah Andrews is more talented. Overall, these teams are pretty even from the line of scrimmage and it is Vanderbilt’s poor special teams and Wake Forest’s home field advantage that have my overall ratings favoring the Demon Deacons by 7 points. Aside from the line value favoring the Commodores, Wake applies to a negative 31-71-2 ATS game 1 home favorite situation (if they are favored by more than 7 points), so Vandy is certainly the side to take in this game – especially given Grobe’s history as a favorite. It’s also comforting that Wake Forest only beat one Division 1A team by more than 3 points last season and they didn’t even cover the spread in that game (a 14 point win as a 14 ½ point favorite at East Carolina). Vanderbilt, meanwhile, lost 5 games by 5 points or less last season and are 8-3 ATS recently getting 6 points or more, so they should be able to at least keep this game close.
Downgrade Vanderbilt to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 8 points
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