Backing up a dog play.

[Spearit]

In tonights game with SD and Arizona-

I took Arizona +178 300 To win 534 (= Total Gain 355)
then Backed it up with a parlay of SD and SD Under 179 To Win 300.10. (=Total Gain .10 and covered the dog bet)

now please read:
SAN DIEGO - Despite being 11 games under .500, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a legitimate chance to win the National League West Division. They will continue their push when they face the first-place San Diego Padres on Tuesday.

The Diamondbacks shaved the Padres' lead to 4 1/2 games in Monday's 7-5 victory. Following a six-game losing streak, Arizona has won three consecutive contests for the first time since late May.

Javier Vazquez (10-13, 4.59 ERA) has lost four of his last five outings for the Diamondbacks. However, he has yielded just three runs in his last two starts, spanning 15 innings.

Vazquez is 3-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against San Diego. He has won both of his career starts at Petco Park, posting a 1.06 ERA.

Losers of three of their last four games, the Padres will counter with ace Jake Peavy (11-6, 2.97). The righthander is coming off last Tuesday's four-hit, 2-0 shutout against Roger Clemens and Houston.

Peavy has had difficulty against the Diamondbacks in his career, going 5-6 with a 5.57 in 13 starts.

Now understand -Peavy has an incredible 16-3 record in the situation of 7 points total at home.

However, this game is tight and 3-2 possibly in extra innings is the best guess. Anybodys game.

[Spearit]

See Sandmans thread for other dog possibilities. Any can be done similarly. For instance Cinncinati and the Houston and Over for backup.

[kanaka]

Do you know which hand Peavy hurt? Pitching hand?

[Spearit]

he hurt his left hand taking out the trash - he is a righty

[Winton]

I think it was his teeth that was hurt.

[Kaptain]

Not a bad wager---GL with it---kapt

[RJeremy]

gl buddy!

[ctt8410]

If I understand correctly, you got 'no action' on these wagers last night, spearit? If so, I'd like to make an example of this wager without any intent of attacking you..

Mathematically, covering your dog with that particular parlay makes very little sense. It's apparent that you considered the under a good value in this game. Therefore, covering your dog bet with the under would have been more favorable, for example if you instead placed a 200 to win 556 wager on Az and a 270 to win 200 wager on the under. There are 4 scenarios which were possible in the game last night (Az/o, Az/u, SD/o, SD/u).

In the case of SD/u, both of our wagers break even and in the case of SD/o, both of our wagers end up ~-470. The difference in the 2 wagers lies in the Az/u scenario, which wins me 556, and wins you 355, and the Az/o scenario, which wins you 355 and wins me 86. If the possiblity of each scenario was 25%, then you come out slightly ahead, but that was probably not the case as Az was a large dog. If the percentages work out the way the bookie wants them to, then it would go as follows: AZ/U (20.2%), AZ/O (15.5%), SD/U (36.3%), SD/O (28%), which costs you $7.38 in juice per wager and costs me $5.96 in juice per wager. BUT you handicap the under to have a higher probability of hitting than the bookie hits, which is why you place the bet. This would imply that AZ/U should actually hit at a higher % and that AZ/O should hit at a lower %. The interesting part of that argument is that if the percentages are adjusted that direction, then it actually benefits my wager as the odds increase that Az/u should hit and I win my 556 more often and you hit your 355 more often, giving me a higher relative advantage.

Once again, I don't mean to insult or attack you in any way, I oftentimes play your totals along with sandy's dogs, I just wanted to point out that betting both sides of a game (even if one is parlayed to make the juice look nice) is not a mathematically favorable scenario and it ultimately costs the bettor more juice. If we are collectively smarter bettors, then we can give less money to the books, which I think everyone agrees is a good thing.

[drugstuntman]

Vasquez pitching today - here is a stat I saw in the San Diego Tribune that is hard to ignore:

Javier Vasquez has 0.72 ERA against Padres in the last 50 innings....wow...

[Uncle Mo]

Good luck today Spearit!!!

[kanaka]

Where is Spearit today?