A couple of promising overs for Friday

[garth]

Baltimore/Cleveland over 9

ERAs last 3:
Bedard - 6.61
Elarton 4.91 (Over is 5-2-1 in his last 8 starts)
Baltimore pen - 6.06
Cleveland pen - 1.59 (Yeah, you're right. this is not good for the over)

But here's a number that, together with Bedard's numbers, makes me think the Tribe will do their part for the over. They're hitting .358 against LHP for their last 10 games. And Baltimore's been hitting the ball pretty well, coming off a sweep of the As.

I might feel stronger about the position if I had some numbers for the umpire but it's the first game of the series so I don't have those numbers.

Texas/TB over 11

ERAs last 3:
Dominguez - 6.43
McClung 9.45
Texas pen - 9.53
TB pen - 2.45

Trends:
Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers' last 10
Over is 4-1 in McClungs last 5
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings

Summary: A couple of pretty good offensive teams and some shithouse pitching. I think it could go over the big number.

As far as my record, it's been mediocre this season. I think I was 40-39-2 on the Konsensus thread, playing mostly small favorites and some dogs. But I've done much better on the totals, so I may stick to those for now. Don't know my exact record on totals, so I'm starting over documenting a record for totals.. Yesterday 1-0

Good luck.

[lowrider66]

Gl today garth!

[Spearit]

Best of luck Garth. On the Texas/ TB Over with ya. Umpires can give an edge but it really comes down to the feel of the game. I played early on Ed Montague on overs as he was solid - but now being sent in to games constantly with dueling pitchers - his ratio has declined in the past 7 games. In watching where they place their umpire behind the plate- it is interesting to note how often we see an under type Ump going to a Over type game and vice-versa. I generally play the game as seen but adjust values if we have a favorable Ump situation or not. In the beginning of a series - with no Ump to Trump - Then you are on your own wits in a game. Try using some units in your capping to give some idea to the viewers of how well you like a game. You are doing well- keep up the good work. --Spearit

[garth]

Thanks guys. Spearit, interesting observations about the umpires. And I usually just play all my games for one unit. I'll vary that amount based on bankroll, streaks, etc. So I don't get into stars or multiple unit games. I will do that occasionally, but don't seem to pick my spots very well. For example, I played 3 units on the Sooners in the Orange Bowl. Obviously wasn't a good place to stray from my "play all the games equally" strategy. Good luck today.

[garth]

Correction. I actually got the Tex/TB over at 10.5 (-115) at cascade. I'm sure it will go up when someone wakes up in Costa Rica. But I'll take that extra half point.

[Spearit]

I could learn to bet equally with much better results probably. It again comes down to one very important point - play the percentages -not the game.

[RJeremy]

gl garth

[garth]

Thanks, RJ.

[moondog22]

good luck Garth

[keawe]

Goodluck today Garth!!!!

[garth]

Thanks, moondog and keawe.

[Lsufan]

Good Luck Garth!!!

[garth]

Thanks, LSU. What do you think of Les Miles? I've heard the Tigers are going to be really good this year.

[phantom]

goodlucks!

[garth]

Thanks, phantom. Good luck to you, my friend.