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I'm typically not big on trends. There are some that you read that leave you wondering why it would matter. The trends that I do like tend to be more universal and apply to all of the NFL teams, rather than just a few. Trends dealing with specific teams, by the time they develop, are almost always useless as it's time to get to next season by that time. Also, I like trends that have developed over a long period of time, like these below, which have been good over 13 seasons. All trends are against the spread. I received these trends from another gambling board that I post on.
When a team allows 30 or more points in consecutive games, they are 108-134 in the next game.
When a team scores 0 points, they are 59-36 in the next game.
When a team starts a season 0-4 STRAIGHT UP, they are 300-246 ATS for the remainder of the season.
When a team starts a season 4-0 STRAIGHT UP, they are 187-234 ATS for the remainder of the season.
When a team is playing 4 out of 5 games on the road, in the 5th game, they are 59-76.
A home dog of 7+ is 120-93
When a team registers an ATS win and goes under the total in consecutive games, 170-144 in the next game.
SINCE 1983, Home teams at a PK up to +2.5 are 278-237-3.
If you're on the right side of all of these trends taken together, they are 1371-1110-3, which is just a little over 55% winners.
Keep in mind that this record may be a little better than it appears, as no doubt, a good deal of these games overlapped and had 2 or more trends involved.
I love these trends because you can see the reasoning behind them.
A team lets up a bunch of points and the public just sees the losses, and doesn't see the margin.
A team gets shut out and the public sees they couldn't score the week before, and therefore, an undervalued line is posted.
A team starts 0-4 straight up and are undervalued for the rest of the season in terms of the line. This may be valid with regard to the first few games after the 0-4 stretch.
A team starts 4-0 straight up and are overvalued for the rest of the season in terms of the line. Same as the last one... maybe more valuable right after this stretch.
4 out of 5 road stretches can't be good for a team, and this is the type of thing that the public rarely looks for in the NFL.
Home dogs are a winning trend overall, but if you isolate BIG home dogs and slight home dogs, they win more.
When a team registers ATS win and goes under the total in consecutive games, 170-144 next game -- this one was difficult to understand to me at first. I couldn't find the logic behind it. It was explained to me that when these things happen, they're a good indicator that a team is very much under control of their game plan, and they will be playing with confidence.
Thoughts on any of these?
When a team allows 30 or more points in consecutive games, they are 108-134 in the next game.
When a team scores 0 points, they are 59-36 in the next game.
When a team starts a season 0-4 STRAIGHT UP, they are 300-246 ATS for the remainder of the season.
When a team starts a season 4-0 STRAIGHT UP, they are 187-234 ATS for the remainder of the season.
When a team is playing 4 out of 5 games on the road, in the 5th game, they are 59-76.
A home dog of 7+ is 120-93
When a team registers an ATS win and goes under the total in consecutive games, 170-144 in the next game.
SINCE 1983, Home teams at a PK up to +2.5 are 278-237-3.
If you're on the right side of all of these trends taken together, they are 1371-1110-3, which is just a little over 55% winners.
Keep in mind that this record may be a little better than it appears, as no doubt, a good deal of these games overlapped and had 2 or more trends involved.
I love these trends because you can see the reasoning behind them.
A team lets up a bunch of points and the public just sees the losses, and doesn't see the margin.
A team gets shut out and the public sees they couldn't score the week before, and therefore, an undervalued line is posted.
A team starts 0-4 straight up and are undervalued for the rest of the season in terms of the line. This may be valid with regard to the first few games after the 0-4 stretch.
A team starts 4-0 straight up and are overvalued for the rest of the season in terms of the line. Same as the last one... maybe more valuable right after this stretch.
4 out of 5 road stretches can't be good for a team, and this is the type of thing that the public rarely looks for in the NFL.
Home dogs are a winning trend overall, but if you isolate BIG home dogs and slight home dogs, they win more.
When a team registers ATS win and goes under the total in consecutive games, 170-144 next game -- this one was difficult to understand to me at first. I couldn't find the logic behind it. It was explained to me that when these things happen, they're a good indicator that a team is very much under control of their game plan, and they will be playing with confidence.
Thoughts on any of these?
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