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Rather than continuing to be argumentative (and correct) in the fade factors forum, I thought I'd put up a proven, winning teaser system for the NFL. I tested this system against data from every NFL REGULAR SEASON game from 1983 to 2004.
The system is this:
Only play 6-point, 2-team teasers. If your sportsbook only offers these teasers at -110 odds (lay $110 to win $100), get a new book, because you can get these at +100 odds (Lay $100 to win $100).
When the favorite is a favorite of 1.5 to 2.5, tease that favorite. When an underdog is getting 7.5 to 8.5 points, tease that underdog.
When you are playing with +100 odds, you need to produce 70.7% winners with the extra six points in order to break even. This system produces 72.47% winners.
When I tested every possible teaser combination that this produced from week to week, it went 857-760-8. This is 53% winners, +97 units. This means that you have a 6% advantage over the house with this system. IN THE LONG TERM, expect to win $60 for every $1000 you bet.
If you don't like playing this many teasers, I have an even better system that involves far less plays. Use the exact same parameters from above, but only tease home teams. This means that you will be playing a lot less plays, and there may be several weeks that will go by without a play.
When playing only HOME teams with this system, teasers won 57.7% of the time, +72 units, from 1983 to 2004. The record was 270-198.
I want to emphasize to you that this system was tested against 22 years of data. It's a winner IN THE LONG TERM. This means that you will have losing weeks, and you will have losing seasons. Four of the most recent five seasons have been losers, and is 53-52 over those seasons (in 2002, the system went 32-7).
I encourage you to bet accordingly. If the system has you playing six teasers on four games in one weekend, reduce your unit size on those six teasers. You might be making six bets, but it's only on the outcome of four games. You don't want to overexpose yourself.
The question on everybody's mind might be why it is that this system works. It works because, in the NFL, the numbers 3 and 7 in the spread are very significant. If you look at lines at various sportsbooks right now, you will see that there are probably several games that are hung up on the #3. This is because 10% of all games in the NFL finish with a 3-point margin, and it is the most signficant number. The 7 isn't very far behind in terms of signfiicance. Using this system, you will see that we capture both the 3 and the 7 by getting the extra 6 points. This is why it works. Capturing those numbers is HUGE.
As far as I know, this doesn't work for NCAA football.
I want to attribute the idea for this system to Stanford Wong, as it pretty much came from his book Sharp Sports Betting, however, all of the testing of data is mine.
Good luck with this one. Comments are welcome. Before asking any questions about how to handle certain situations, please read this post carefully, as I'm pretty certain that everything you need to know is right here. Go shop for a book that will give you +100 on two-team, 6-point teasers.
The system is this:
Only play 6-point, 2-team teasers. If your sportsbook only offers these teasers at -110 odds (lay $110 to win $100), get a new book, because you can get these at +100 odds (Lay $100 to win $100).
When the favorite is a favorite of 1.5 to 2.5, tease that favorite. When an underdog is getting 7.5 to 8.5 points, tease that underdog.
When you are playing with +100 odds, you need to produce 70.7% winners with the extra six points in order to break even. This system produces 72.47% winners.
When I tested every possible teaser combination that this produced from week to week, it went 857-760-8. This is 53% winners, +97 units. This means that you have a 6% advantage over the house with this system. IN THE LONG TERM, expect to win $60 for every $1000 you bet.
If you don't like playing this many teasers, I have an even better system that involves far less plays. Use the exact same parameters from above, but only tease home teams. This means that you will be playing a lot less plays, and there may be several weeks that will go by without a play.
When playing only HOME teams with this system, teasers won 57.7% of the time, +72 units, from 1983 to 2004. The record was 270-198.
I want to emphasize to you that this system was tested against 22 years of data. It's a winner IN THE LONG TERM. This means that you will have losing weeks, and you will have losing seasons. Four of the most recent five seasons have been losers, and is 53-52 over those seasons (in 2002, the system went 32-7).
I encourage you to bet accordingly. If the system has you playing six teasers on four games in one weekend, reduce your unit size on those six teasers. You might be making six bets, but it's only on the outcome of four games. You don't want to overexpose yourself.
The question on everybody's mind might be why it is that this system works. It works because, in the NFL, the numbers 3 and 7 in the spread are very significant. If you look at lines at various sportsbooks right now, you will see that there are probably several games that are hung up on the #3. This is because 10% of all games in the NFL finish with a 3-point margin, and it is the most signficant number. The 7 isn't very far behind in terms of signfiicance. Using this system, you will see that we capture both the 3 and the 7 by getting the extra 6 points. This is why it works. Capturing those numbers is HUGE.
As far as I know, this doesn't work for NCAA football.
I want to attribute the idea for this system to Stanford Wong, as it pretty much came from his book Sharp Sports Betting, however, all of the testing of data is mine.
Good luck with this one. Comments are welcome. Before asking any questions about how to handle certain situations, please read this post carefully, as I'm pretty certain that everything you need to know is right here. Go shop for a book that will give you +100 on two-team, 6-point teasers.
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