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Dunkel Index - Sunday

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  • Dunkel Index - Sunday

    SUNDAY, AUGUST 7

    National League

    Washington* (Loaiza) 13.17 (1/2) San Diego (Peavy) 12.82
    Total Runs: 7 1/2

    New York Mets* (Zambrano) 12.96 (1/2) Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) 12.69
    Total Runs: 9

    Florida (Willis) 15.02 (1 1/2) Cincinnati* (Ortiz) 13.49
    Total Runs: 10 1/2

    L.A. Dodgers (Weaver) 12.19 (1/2) Pittsburgh* (Wells) 12.05
    Total Runs: 8 1/2

    Milwaukee (Ohka) 13.83 (Even) Philadelphia* (Padilla) 13.76
    Total Runs: 10

    St. Louis* (Carpenter) 14.17 (1/2) Atlanta (Sosa) 13.68
    Total Runs: 8 1/2

    Houston (Clemens) 14.85 (1 1/2) San Francisco* (Tomko) 13.36
    Total Runs: 7

    Arizona* (Vargas) 13.18 (1/2) Colorado (Wright) 12.93
    Total Runs: 10

    American League

    Cleveland (Elarton) 14.46 (2) Detroit* (Johnson) 12.51
    Total Runs: 9 1/2

    Toronto* (Towers) 13.77 (1/2) New York Yankees (Leiter) 13.36
    Total Runs: 11

    Texas* (Young) 13.03 (1) Baltimore (Ponson) 12.41
    Total Runs: 12

    Boston (Wakefield) 14.07 (1) Minnesota* (Mays) 13.12
    Total Runs: 10

    Oakland (Haren) 15.04 (3) Kansas City* (Hernandez) 11.81
    Total Runs: 9

    Chicago White Sox* (Garland) 14.86 (2 1/2) Seattle (Harris) 12.57
    Total Runs: 9

    L.A. Angels* (Colon) 14.81 (1) Tampa Bay (McClung) 13.60
    Total Runs: 9 1/2

  • #2
    Dunkel rating for each team, every day based on a variety
    of factors. then compare the two ratings to determine a margin of victory
    based on runs that are listed in increments of 1/2 runs. So, for example,
    today's Dunkel line for Oakland @ K.C. reads:

    Oakland (Blanton) 15.39 (3 1/2) Kansas City* (Lima) 11.92
    Total Runs: 9

    The 15.39 is Oakland's Dunkel rating with Blanton pitching and the 11.92 is
    Kansas City's Dunkel rating with Lima pitching. The 3 1/2 is the number of
    runs we have Oakland favored. The 9 is the number of total runs we expect
    to be scored. The * signifies that K.C. is the home team.

    Generally, teams that we have favored by 1 1/2 runs or more are strong
    straight-up plays. Games where the higher-rated team is favored by only a
    run or less are good underdog plays, especially utilizing the 1 1/2-run
    spread. Underdogs that are favored by a run or more are solid straight-ups
    in the other direction. And our run totals have been right nearly 60
    percent of the time when differing from the line.

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