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Kaptains "Top Rated Totals" play
you guys all knwo by now, I don't play unders, just overs...Theres one today that I just love.....Its a 10* play for me...Caution---I'm just 2-2 on 10*s this year....Lost the last 2 by 1 run, and hit the first 2....I'm on a 2 loss in a row streak...lets break it out today....The play I like is
San Diego/Pitts OVER 8 1/2, and heres my reasons why...
Park for SD has ERA of 5.66 and gives up 299 BA....Williams/Pitts has a 4.2 ERA and gives up 262 BA....
San Diego batting 258 as a team, Pitts 252....though those are low BA's, thats against all the pitchers, aces included...these aren't exactly aces...even the combined averages 255---that alone should get you 7-8 runs....now lets look at these stats...
Park ERA as he goes through the oppositions rotation....
ERA 1st time around 3.00---2nd 4.04---3rd 11.67
Williams---ditto--1st 1.28---2nd 4.06---3rd 8.39...
To go through the Rotation is more than 3 innings, un less you are perfect...Lets use 3 inning increments....
1 st 3, at best --= 4.28 runs...quite a pace to go over....Just do the math progressively, and you'll see what I'm talking about......
Lets factor in---winds R-L at 10 MPH---87 degree temp with just 49% humidity, and 93 degree heat index---Ball will fly.....
I look for this one to go over by the 6th inning....Just my take, but I'm playing it as a 10*...kapt
San Diego/Pitts OVER 8 1/2, and heres my reasons why...
Park for SD has ERA of 5.66 and gives up 299 BA....Williams/Pitts has a 4.2 ERA and gives up 262 BA....
San Diego batting 258 as a team, Pitts 252....though those are low BA's, thats against all the pitchers, aces included...these aren't exactly aces...even the combined averages 255---that alone should get you 7-8 runs....now lets look at these stats...
Park ERA as he goes through the oppositions rotation....
ERA 1st time around 3.00---2nd 4.04---3rd 11.67
Williams---ditto--1st 1.28---2nd 4.06---3rd 8.39...
To go through the Rotation is more than 3 innings, un less you are perfect...Lets use 3 inning increments....
1 st 3, at best --= 4.28 runs...quite a pace to go over....Just do the math progressively, and you'll see what I'm talking about......
Lets factor in---winds R-L at 10 MPH---87 degree temp with just 49% humidity, and 93 degree heat index---Ball will fly.....
I look for this one to go over by the 6th inning....Just my take, but I'm playing it as a 10*...kapt
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