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  • Trends Monday

    MLB Baseball Trends

    Monday, July 18th

    National League:

    Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, 7:05 EST
    Byung-Hyun Kim (R) vs. Tony Armas (R)

    Kim - Colorado 2-18 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season
    Armas - Washington 10-2 Under vs. Colorado over the last 3 seasons

    Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 EST
    Brandon Backe (R) vs. Dave Williams (L)

    Backe - 11-3 TSR in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons
    Williams - 0-4 TSR vs. Houston with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.448 WHIP

    Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 EST
    Jerome Williams (R) vs. Brandon Claussen (L)

    Williams - Cubs 42-25 Under when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons
    Claussen - 0-2 TSR vs. Cubs with a 10.38 ERA and a 1.961 WHIP

    Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:10 EST
    Victor Santos (R) vs. Matt Morris (R)

    Santos - 0-8 TSR vs. teams with a winning record this season
    Morris - St. Louis 12-0 after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season

    Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 EST
    Jason Vargas (L) vs. Mike Gosling (L)

    Vargas - Florida 12-2 Over in July
    Gosling - Arizona 23-53 against left-handed starters over the last 2 seaso

    Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 EST
    Jorge Sosa (R) vs. Kevin Correia (R)

    Sosa - Atlanta 52-38 Under against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons
    Correia - San Francisco 5-1 at home vs. Atlanta over the last 3 seasons

    American League:

    Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians, 7:05 EST
    Daniel Carrasco (R) vs. Cliff Lee (L)

    Carrasco - Kansas City 5-22 in road games in night games this season
    Lee - 30-16 TSR on a grass field over the last 2 seasons

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Boston Red Sox, 7:05 EST
    Scott Kazmir (L) vs. Wade Miller (R)

    Kazmir - 2-11 TSR in night games this season
    Miller - Boston 67-12 as a home favorite of -200 or more over the last 3 seasons

    Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, 8:05 EST
    Sean Douglass (R) vs. Orlando Hernandez (R)

    Douglass - Detroit 1-7 vs. White Sox this season
    Hernandez - White Sox 30-5 against division opponents this season

    New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, 8:05 EST
    Kevin Brown (R) vs. Ricardo Rodriguez (R)

    Brown - Yankees 14-23 when the total is 10 or higher this season
    Rodriguez - Texas 42-28 against right-handed starters this season

    Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins, 8:10 EST
    Erik Bedard (L) vs. Carlos Silva (R)

    Bedard - Baltimore 8-24 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons
    Silva - Minnesota 93-55 when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons

    Oakland Athletics at Anaheim Angels, 10:05 EST
    Kirk Saarloos (R) vs. Ervin Santana (R)

    Saarloos - 6-1 TSR as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season
    Santana - Angels 28-30 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons


    **Denotes Time Change
    TSR = Team Start Record

  • #2
    Hot pitchers
    -- Morris is 2-1, 2.05 his last three starts; Cardinals are 9-2 in his last eleven starts.
    -- Gosling shut Reds out for 5.2 IP in his first '05 start.
    -- Braves are 5-1 in Sosa starts (2-1, 3.13). Giants won both of Correia's starts (1-0, 3.60).

    -- Carrasco is 4-2, 3.51 in last nine starts, but has injury issues and may or may not start here.
    -- Red Sox are 4-1 in last five Miller home starts.
    -- Douglass is 2-0, 3.71 in three starts, all won by visitor
    -- Twins won last seven Silva starts, scoring 46 runs in his last four outings (4-0, 4.13). Bedard was 5-0, 1.23 in his last six starts before injuring knee; he is making first start since May 21 here.
    -- Texas is 4-1 in Rodriguez starts this season.
    -- Saarloos is 4-1, 2.77 in his last six starts.

    Cold pitchers
    -- Kim is 2-4, 7.71 in eight starts. Armas is 1-3, 6.65 in his last four starts.
    -- DWilliams has 8.00 RA in his last four starts. Backe is 1-3, 7.55 in his last six starts.
    -- JWilliams is 1-3, 5.00 in six starts this season. In his last three starts, Claussen is 0-2, 4.08.
    -- Santos is 0-5, 5.63 in his last eight starts.
    -- JVargas is Marlin rookie who made 18 minor league starts and was 7-4, allowing 76 hits in 108 IP, striking out 118 batters, so he's a good prospect.

    -- Lee has a 7.00 RA in his last three starts.
    -- Tampa is 1-7 in last eight Kazmir starts; he has a 7.20 mark in his last two starts.
    -- Hernandez has 9.47 RA in his last four starts.
    -- KBrown makes first start since June 10; he was 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts.
    -- ESantana is 2-3, 8.86 in his last five starts.

    Totals
    -- Seven of Kim's eight starts stayed under the total.
    -- Over is 6-2 in DWilliams' last eight starts.
    -- Over is 8-2 in last ten Cincinnati home games.
    -- Under is 14-1-1 in last sixteen Santos starts.
    -- Last six Arizona home games all stayed under.
    -- Last five San Francisco home games stayed under.

    -- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Lee starts.
    -- Over is 19-8 in last 27 Tampa Bay road games.
    -- Last four Hernandez starts all went over the total.
    -- Over is 5-2 in last seven Baltimore road games.
    -- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Texas home games.
    -- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve Saarloos starts.


    Hot teams
    -- Colorado is pathetic 7-36 on road this season.
    -- Reds are 17-10 in last 27 home games. Cubs won six of their last seven games.
    -- Brewers won five of their last six games. Cardinals are 9-3 in their last dozen home games.
    -- Giants are 6-3 in their last nine games.


    -- White Sox won their last ten games that weren't with the A's (1-5 vs Oakland); they're 11-5 in last 16 at home
    -- Tigers won five of their last six road games.
    -- Bronx won ten of their last twelve games. Texas won 18 of its last 24 home games.
    -- A's are 8-3 in last eleven road games, and are 30-12 since Bobby Crosby got healthy.


    Cold teams
    -- Nationals lost seven of their last nine games.
    -- Houston is 0-3 since All-Star break, scoring five runs. Pirates lost four of their last five games.
    -- Arizona lost eight of last ten home games. Florida lost six of last seven games, allowing 64 runs.
    -- Braves are 2-4 in their last six games.

    -- Indians lost their last six home games. Royals lost ten of last thirteen road games.
    -- Tampa is 11-36 on road, but did just win three of four in Toronto over weekend.
    -- Orioles lost nine of last eleven road games.
    -- Red Sox lost seven of last ten home games.
    -- Twins lost seven of their last ten games.
    -- Angels lost their last four home games, yielding 33 runs

    Comment


    • #3
      Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Boston Red Sox
      Scott Kazmir (3 - 7, 4.59 ERA) v. Wade Miller (2 - 3, 5.03 ERA)
      Wade Miller is 8 - 0 against fly ball-hitting team as a favorite at home.
      Wade Miller is 9 - 1 against a poor run-creating team (≤ 4.5 rc/g) as a favorite at home.
      Wade Miller is 37 - 20 overall as a favorite at home.

      Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
      D.J. Carrasco (4 - 3, 3.57 ERA) v. Cliff Lee (9 - 4, 3.89 ERA)
      D.J. Carrasco has 5 overs, 2 unders, and 0 pushes as dog on the road.
      Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates
      Brandon Backe (7 - 6, 5.06 ERA) v. Dave Williams (7 - 6, 4.38 ERA)
      When Dave Williams is starting, his team is 0 - 5 versus HOU.
      Dave Williams has 7 overs, 3 unders, and 0 pushes as a favorite at home.
      Brandon Backe has 8 overs, 5 unders, and 0 pushes as dog on the road.

      Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
      Byung-Hyun Kim (2 - 7, 5.46 ERA) v. Tony Armas Jr. (4 - 4, 4.97 ERA)
      Washington Nationals are 6 - 0 against a poor base-stealing (≤ .65 sb/attempts) team as a favorite at home.
      Colorado Rockies are 8 - 55 against a poor base-stealing (≤ .65 sb/attempts) team as a dog on the road.
      Byung-Hyun Kim has 0 overs, 5 unders, and 1 pushes as dog on the road.
      Tony Armas Jr. has 2 overs, 4 unders, and 0 pushes against total ≥ 8 and total ≤ 8.5 in the current park.

      Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
      Jerome Williams (0 - 2, 6.48 ERA) v. Brandon Claussen (4 - 6, 3.61 ERA)
      Jerome Williams is 7 - 2 against ground ball-hitting team as a dog on the road.
      Jerome Williams has 6 overs, 3 unders, and 0 pushes as favorite on the road.
      Brandon Claussen has 4 overs, 1 unders, and 1 pushes against total ≥ 9.5 and total ≤ 10 in the current park.
      Jerome Williams is 11 - 6 overall as a dog on the road.

      Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
      Sean Douglass (2 - 0, 2.65 ERA) v. Orlando Hernandez (7 - 2, 4.88 ERA)
      When Orlando Hernandez is starting, his team is 4 - 1 versus DET.

      New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
      Kevin Brown (4 - 6, 5.48 ERA) v. Ricardo Rodriguez (2 - 1, 3.90 ERA)
      When Kevin Brown is starting, his team is 2 - 4 versus TEX.

      Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
      Victor Santos (2 - 9, 3.50 ERA) v. Matt Morris (10 - 2, 3.10 ERA)
      Victor Santos is 3 - 9 against a good run-creating team (≥ 5 rc/g) as a dog on the road.
      Matt Morris is 17 - 6 against ground ball-hitting team as a favorite at home.
      Matt Morris has 5 overs, 2 unders, and 0 pushes against MIL at home.
      Matt Morris is 54 - 23 overall as a favorite at home.
      Victor Santos is 7 - 16 overall as a dog on the road.
      When Matt Morris is starting, his team is 9 - 4 versus MIL.
      Wash. D.C. 8 sq. miles surrounded by REALITY

      Comment


      • #4
        Monday, 7/18/2005


        KANSAS CITY (32 - 59) at CLEVELAND (47 - 45) - 7:05 PM
        DJ CARRASCO (R) vs. CLIFTON LEE (L)
        Top Trends for this game.
        KANSAS CITY is 90-163 (-37.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        KANSAS CITY is 38-89 (-26.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
        KANSAS CITY is 5-22 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
        KANSAS CITY is 41-96 (-32.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        CLEVELAND is 56-36 (+18.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
        CLEVELAND is 120-112 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
        CLEVELAND is 93-80 (+17.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        LEE is 32-19 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
        LEE is 30-16 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
        CLEVELAND is 15-25 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
        CLEVELAND is 252-233 (-56.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
        CLEVELAND is 7-14 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        KANSAS CITY is 3-2 (+2.0 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)



        DJ CARRASCO vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
        No recent starts.



        CLIFTON LEE vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
        LEE is 3-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.97 and a WHIP of 1.170.
        His team's record is 3-3 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.4 units)




        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        TAMPA BAY (31 - 62) at BOSTON (50 - 41) - 7:05 PM
        SCOTT KAZMIR (L) vs. WADE MILLER (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        TAMPA BAY is 7-33 (-19.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
        TAMPA BAY is 31-62 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        TAMPA BAY is 11-36 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
        TAMPA BAY is 8-29 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
        TAMPA BAY is 6-27 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
        KAZMIR is 2-11 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
        BOSTON is 18-24 (-11.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
        BOSTON is 76-67 (-26.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
        BOSTON is 50-44 (-31.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 since 1997.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        BOSTON is 4-2 (+0.6 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)



        SCOTT KAZMIR vs. BOSTON since 1997
        KAZMIR is 1-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 1.125.
        His team's record is 2-2 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)



        WADE MILLER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
        No recent starts.




        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        DETROIT (44 - 46) at CHI WHITE SOX (61 - 29) - 8:05 PM
        SEAN DOUGLASS (R) vs. ORLANDO HERNANDEZ (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        DETROIT is 29-40 (-13.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 44-17 (+23.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 28-13 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 61-29 (+26.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 30-5 (+25.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 55-26 (+23.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 39-18 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
        CHI WHITE SOX are 43-20 (+19.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        CHI WHITE SOX is 7-1 (+6.2 Units) against DETROIT this season
        7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.9 Units)



        SEAN DOUGLASS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
        No recent starts.



        ORLANDO HERNANDEZ vs. DETROIT since 1997
        HERNANDEZ is 6-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.222.
        His team's record is 6-1 (+4.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (+0.1 units)




        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        NY YANKEES (49 - 41) at TEXAS (47 - 43) - 8:05 PM
        KEVIN BROWN (R) vs. RICARDO RODRIGUEZ (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        NY YANKEES are 49-41 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        NY YANKEES are 66-60 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
        NY YANKEES are 45-36 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
        NY YANKEES are 31-27 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
        NY YANKEES are 33-28 (-12.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
        TEXAS is 62-54 (+16.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
        TEXAS is 43-32 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        TEXAS is 136-116 (+28.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        TEXAS is 78-48 (+25.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
        TEXAS is 130-108 (+30.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
        TEXAS is 90-78 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
        TEXAS is 42-29 (+13.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        TEXAS is 2-1 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
        2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)



        KEVIN BROWN vs. TEXAS since 1997
        BROWN is 2-4 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.12 and a WHIP of 1.640.
        His team's record is 2-5 (-5.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.5 units)



        RICARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
        No recent starts.




        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        BALTIMORE (49 - 42) at MINNESOTA (49 - 41) - 8:10 PM
        ERIK BEDARD (L) vs. CARLOS SILVA (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        BALTIMORE is 8-24 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        BALTIMORE is 62-63 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
        BALTIMORE is 21-11 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
        BALTIMORE is 90-82 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        MINNESOTA is 43-46 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.


        Head-to-Head Series History
        BALTIMORE is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
        2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)



        ERIK BEDARD vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
        BEDARD is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
        His team's record is 0-2 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)



        CARLOS SILVA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
        SILVA is 1-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.385.
        His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)




        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


        OAKLAND (47 - 44) at ANAHEIM (55 - 37) - 10:05 PM
        KIRK SAARLOOS (R) vs. ERVIN SANTANA (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        OAKLAND is 95-113 (-36.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
        OAKLAND is 5-15 (-9.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
        ANAHEIM is 41-24 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
        ANAHEIM is 43-24 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
        ANAHEIM is 55-37 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        OAKLAND is 45-37 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
        OAKLAND is 28-20 (+9.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
        SAARLOOS is 11-4 (+9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)


        Head-to-Head Series History
        OAKLAND is 3-3 (+0.4 Units) against ANAHEIM this season
        4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)



        KIRK SAARLOOS vs. ANAHEIM since 1997
        SAARLOOS is 1-0 when starting against ANAHEIM with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.305.
        His team's record is 3-0 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)



        ERVIN SANTANA vs. OAKLAND since 1997
        No recent starts.

        Comment


        • #5
          13) Ratings are better when Eldrick Woods wins, but the tournament has so much less suspense when he is the frontrunner, since he never gives up the lead, with 32 wins in 35 tries when he leads after 54 holes.

          12) Did anyone really think Colin Montgomerie was going to withstand 36 holes with Mr Woods? He beat Eldrick Saturday, but faded badly Sunday.

          11) The greens at the BC Open looked a little beat up by pro tour standards. 24-under was winning score, at only course on Tour with no driving range onsite.

          10) A win is a win on Tour; it comes with cherished two-year exemption, so the competition was fierce at the BC Open, a lot more intense than British Open, because guys are playing for their careers.

          9) Lee Trevino said, "The real meaning of pressure is putting for $100, when you have $50 in your pocket."

          8) You wonder why the Mets take Pedro Martinez out after only 62 pitches, when he is tossing a shutout. Is he hurt? It is a siituation worth watching.

          7) Red Sox win 17-1 Friday night, and still lose three of four vs the poor, injury-riddled Bronx team. Don't you feel sorry for them, with their bad starting pitchers and their injuries? Nah, neither do I.......

          6) White Sox went into Cleveland and squashed Tribe by winning four straight. This is a very good Pale Hose squad that could get stronger if they get AJ Burnett.

          5) Padres are looking like sure thing in west, but only because the division is so pathetic. They'll need to get Adam Eaton back at 100%, to be threat in playoffs.

          4) Nationals are 2-7 in last nine games, as naysayers start to come out of woodwork. NL East could very well be a five-team race to wire, but until Braves are ousted, they are always the team to beat.

          3) Roger Clemens has allowed six runs in 52 innings on the road this season. Astros have been shut out in five of his starts.

          2) The whole Larry Brown/Pistons/Knicks scenario is incredibly goofy. Pistons don't want him, but also they don't want to pay him off. He wants to run a team, but he has to get out of the Detroit contract, and he'd like to get paid to leave. Meanwhile, Isiah Thomas waits for a coach, one whose wife says will not be coaching in New York next season. What a mess.

          1) We're off to Florida on Wednesday, for eight days of AAU basketball in sunny Florida. Be sure to log on every day for reports from the Sunshine State.

          Comment

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