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YTD: 10-10 +2.57 units (all have been 1* plays)
Faves: 2-0 +2.0 units
Dogs: 7-10 -0.43 units
Totals: 1-0 +1.0 units
1* All Star Game OVER 9 1/2 (-105)
I received a fair amount of ridicule when I made my NFL Post Season Game of the Year (a 3* play for me) on the OVER in the Pro Bowl. The game easily went over and was a no-brainer bet as the total that was posted was way lower than recent final scores in that game. In all major sports, all-star games have become offensive contests. That's the way the leagues want it. As for this play, the final scores in the all-star game the last three years have been: 9-4, 7-6, 7-7 (the tie was the game Selig called off rather than play extra innings). That's very consistent: 13 runs twice and 14 the other game. This year's line of 9 1/2 is well under recent trends. Going back over the last 13 years(give me credit for all this work), 141 runs have been scored. That's an average of 10.9 per game, safely over this year's 9 1/2. My only reservation here is that ERAs are lower this year than in recent years but the overall All-Star trend is powerful. Sports betting is all about looking for edges against bad lines. the fact that a game is an "exhibition" doesn't make it any less of a betting proposition. In fact, these "exhibitions" often offer great wagering opportunities that purists miss out on.
Faves: 2-0 +2.0 units
Dogs: 7-10 -0.43 units
Totals: 1-0 +1.0 units
1* All Star Game OVER 9 1/2 (-105)
I received a fair amount of ridicule when I made my NFL Post Season Game of the Year (a 3* play for me) on the OVER in the Pro Bowl. The game easily went over and was a no-brainer bet as the total that was posted was way lower than recent final scores in that game. In all major sports, all-star games have become offensive contests. That's the way the leagues want it. As for this play, the final scores in the all-star game the last three years have been: 9-4, 7-6, 7-7 (the tie was the game Selig called off rather than play extra innings). That's very consistent: 13 runs twice and 14 the other game. This year's line of 9 1/2 is well under recent trends. Going back over the last 13 years(give me credit for all this work), 141 runs have been scored. That's an average of 10.9 per game, safely over this year's 9 1/2. My only reservation here is that ERAs are lower this year than in recent years but the overall All-Star trend is powerful. Sports betting is all about looking for edges against bad lines. the fact that a game is an "exhibition" doesn't make it any less of a betting proposition. In fact, these "exhibitions" often offer great wagering opportunities that purists miss out on.
Good Luck as always!
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