this system went 20-0 for the first half

[cisco]

This system went 20-0, plus 20 units, for the first half of the season.

3 Day Chase

Play on a team that has lost their last 3 or more games as home favorite, and is again favored at home. Must be -110 or better.
Two games are pending:
Cubs
Angels

Breakdown of teams with with consecutive losses as a home favorite this year before winning:

LAA..4 (pending)
LAA..5
ARI..3
ARI..5
BAL..3 (2)
BOS..3
CLE..4
CHC..4 (pending)
CWS..3
FLA-..3
HOU..3
MIL...3
MIN...4
NYM..3 (2)
NYY..3
NYY..4
PIT...5
SDO..3
SFO..3
STL..4

[rented mule]

What am I missing here? Didn't the Angels just lose 4 in a row as a home favorite of more than -110?

If you played them after the third loss, wouldn't that be a loss for the system?

[Spearit]

I agree - And if you had bet on the teams listed - it appears your system would be far from perfect after 3 losses.

[cisco]

We play 3 games starting with game #4.
The fourth just lost. We have two to go.

[cisco]

Arizona
6/25 -170 L
6/29 -210 L
6/30 -152 L
7/8 -145 L
7/9 -165 L
7/10 –124 W

Arizona bet;
Gm #1 145 to win 100..Lose
Gm #2 145 +100 x 1.65 = 404..Lose
Gm #3 404 +100 x 1.24 =625 Win


You are +1 unit

[Spearit]

Cisco- brother- In an effort to understand what you are saying- Can you show how some of your 20 wins were won and how you played them.
I figured out that since the Cubs swept Fla- their last home venture was uneventful. So therefore your system is to play LAA and the Cubs on their next home occurance? Am I close to what you are saying.
It also appears you have lost but am chasing on the third or so effort.

[rented mule]

This seems similar to a martingale system, which we all know can kill you unless you have an unlimited bankroll.

After the break, the Cubs have a 4 game series with the Pirates. They could conceivably be -180 favorites, or better, in all of those games. What if they get swept?

[cisco]

rented mule-This is a 3 day chase. After that, it's a loss.

Games pending:
7/14 Cubs vs Pittsburg
7/18 Angels vs Oakland

Joining the chase will be:
7/18 White Sox vs Detroit
7/26 Florida vs Pittsburg

We don't set the lines

[Spearit]

Cisco - I seriously would consider using the system you have on the fades. Betting on teams that have lost 3 and four games at home, generally means bettors are on them and the odds are similar to what Rented Mule states. Another system that is popular here at B/C is to play a home team on the end of a losing homestand - this justs takes it futher and chases after it.

In Fades, I bet one unit on each play. I will not have three consecutive bad days, but if I lose, then I add 1.5, then 2, to my chase in each losing column. I pick out the plays or fades for three columns that are + 120 or better and they are the plays for me that day. I may add a parlay or an RL to the mix.

I do not consider your chase system as 20 wins- but you have stated that it is a 3 day chase. If LAA loses to Oakland on 7/18, then you have your first loss- is that correct? Then do you go on till it finally hits. This Martingale system can last as long as you have the money to pour into and even then - You would never in my opinion win as much as the fades, or dogs could bring in- which may have just as good a chance of winning as your home favorite will. Good Luck to you and thank you sincerely for sharing.

[cisco]

Spearit-
The system is to win one unit, not break even.
The chase begins on game #4 The Angels lost that game.
They need to lose the next two games where they are favored by -110 or more before it's a loss.

You need to set your unit size in a way that the last game will not overburden you. (make you piss your pants ) Even if you play for $10 a game you are up $200 and if Arizona had lost you would have lost $117.40 and you would still be up $72.60

[Spearit]

Arizona
6/25 -170 L
6/29 -210 L
6/30 -152 L
7/8 -145 L
7/9 -165 L
7/10 –124 W

Arizona bet;
Gm #1 145 to win 100..Lose
Gm #2 145 +100 x 1.65 = 404..Lose
Gm #3 404 +100 x 1.24 =625 Win

You are +1 unit

Cisco- I enjoy a good debate- but I have not been just breaking even here. If you take a loss on play 1 and you have odds of +150 and you add 1.5 units to this 2nd play - then you have made 225 from your original bet of 100. A gain of 125.
If you lose the bet - you are now down 250, whereupon, a bet play of another +150 is made with 2 units. (This has months of background of fades records and a high percentage of chance to win.) With the 2 units it would be +300 won and a net of 50 dollars.
You can go more- Since there has rarely ever been or never has loss three days in a row- and lets make the play at 2.5 units= +375 and a net win of $125
or 3 units played = +450 with a net of $200
No matter what amount you bet as just shown -it will be much less than what you show on your system in quote above. Less money out for a bet that has a better payout and hits for relatively the same percentage. Less money bet + More payout gained + about 50% bets won. If I made similar higher bets on my system, that you make, Cisco- then more profit is mine and considerably more made --than your system of favorites.

[cisco]

Spearit-This is the system. It's 20-0. I put it up so people can make money. Period. This is not a contest to see who can make the most money.

I am also going to start the same system using the RL and see what happens. Less money risk.

[rxpert]

this is a martingale. as soon as you have ONE loser, e.g. cubs at 2:1 next 3 games.
game #1 -20
game #2 -60
game #3 -140
total 3 game losses= -220. previous 20 wins = +200
you now have a system that's 20-1 w/ a negative result of $20.
not trying to bust balls & appreciate any tracking. just want to see if i understand this correctly.

[cisco]

rxpert- It's not a martingale, it's a 3 day chase.

Example:

Arizona
6/25 -170 L
6/29 -210 L
6/30 -152 L
7/8 -145 L Begin chase
7/9 -165 L
7/10 –124 W

Arizona bet;
Gm #1 145 to win 100..Lose
Gm #2 145 +100 x 1.65 = 404..Lose
Gm #3 404 +100 x 1.24 =625 Win

You are +1 unit

Had Arizona lost the chase ends as a loss and you are -1174 for the chase. Martingale continues until you get a win. Similar, I agree but this cuts the loss.

1900 minus 1174 = +726 for the 20. But it didn't lose.

[Spearit]

Cisco- I didn't mean to have a pissing contest with ya- but your breaking even statement was a bit offensive. I believe I got thru to ya as you are considering the RL side of the equation, (less money risked) at least you are open. As injuries start to mount - I believe your system suffers and would hate to see ya lose after such a great start. Know when to hold em know when to fold em. Keep us posted on how you do and remember that we are all trying to figure out new ways to beat the man. Thanks for sharing yours.