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**Spark** · 07-10-2005, 11:27 AM

From now until close to end of July, we will do analysis on NFL teams, looking back while looking to prospects for 2005. We will go in reverse alphabet order, which means we started in our nation's capitol.....

Tomorrow, we'll look at the New York Jets.......

Oakland Raiders-- Addition of Randy Moss makes them the #1 apparel seller, and gives them an awesome passing game, with RB Jordan coming in from Jets, Oakland will light up the scoreboard. Raiders were 2-6 in first half last season, allowing 30+ points during five-game loss streak, so they better improve their defense, too. Raiders were dead last in forced fumbles, 30th in takeaways, 29th in giveaways, 29th in turnover margin. That number needs to improve, or it won't matter how many points they score.

Raiders ran second-least plays in NFL, and their defense was on field for the most. Oakland will never be a team that controls ball, but if offense scores more points, and defense can get off field by forcing turnovers, this is team that could be a sleeper in AFC. Raiders also had the #32 red zone defense. More takeaways would lessen amount of times they have to defend their end zone. No matter, if defense doesn't get better, Moss will still think he is on the Vikings, except in a warmer climate.

Philadelphia Eagles-- Eagles reached their second Super Bowl last year, then had to deal with fact that they could not run hurry up offense because QB McNabb was sick or exhausted, depending on whom you believe. Losing a Super Bowl has created problems in recent years, and the contract situations of many players, with selfish Owens in the forefront, makes Reid's job that much more ticklish.

Obviously, this is an excellent team that has played in last four NFC title games, the last three at home. They were 15-4 last year, and two of four losses were meaningless games they didn't try to win. They came out of chute fast in '04, winning first seven games, covering first five. It will be interesting to see if the Super Bowl hangover effects them. In reality, the biggest enemy the Eagles have in the NFC is themselves.

Pittsburgh Steelers-- Steelers lost their QB and a game at Baltimore in Week 2, then never lost again until playoffs, riding rookie QB Roethlisberger- they went 11-3 against spread in his 14 regular season starts. Pitt defense gave up 16 or less points in six straight games, and beat Philly and Patriots in consecutive weeks, when both hadn't lost a game. Only once in Big Ben's starts did Steelers rush ball for less than 120 yards; they allowed more than 107 yards on ground once in his fourteen starts. .

Steeler defense was only on field for 882 plays, least in NFL, because they ran ball so well; as usually, they were terrific on first drives, but were poor on offense in the red zone (29th) and on drives starting 80+ yards from paydirt (28th). In short, when Steelers had to throw ball to move chains, they didn't do so well, which is part of reason why Burress was allowed to bolt to Giants for more money. Cowher has his team close to top in AFC, but he needs Big Ben to raise his level of play, if they want to play in Detroit in February.

St Louis Rams-- Turnovers. Miscues. Delay penalties and horrible special teams play. These are hallmarks of Martz Madness, as well as maddening habit for brilliant offensive play which erases a lot of the mistakes. Last year, Rams slipped to 8-8, were lucky to make playoffs, luckier still to beat Seattle in Wild Card, then got their butts kicked by Atlanta in the second round. All in all, a disappointing season. Things need to get better.

There is hope. Replay reviews were better last year, and this spring, the Rams actually practiced special teams, a first in the post-Vermeil era. A new RT was drafted, and Marshall Faulk will now be rationed wisely, to make most of his pass catching skills, giving running load to Jackson, another wise move. But that damn turnover ratio just has to get better (they were tied for last in takeaways, last in giveaways, ugly statistics).

Rams were 21st in NFL in first drive points allowed. As good as offense is, if Rams can get early stop, they can play downhill rest of game. Personnel changes addressed defense in the offseason, and Archuleta's improved health should help. Lovie Smith was obviously a tough act to follow, as head of the defense, but Rams started just eight drives in enemy territory, a horrible fact. Coach Marmie better come up with more turnovers this year or else there will be a lot of new coaches in Rams Park in 2006.

San Diego Chargers-- Dream season last year for Bolts, who drafted young QB Rivers, but had such a good year that he never got to play, and may never, at least not for Chargers. San Diego was 3-3 after tough 21-20 loss in Atlanta, but never lost again until day after Christmas, in OT at Indy. A butchered field goal cost them their home playoff game against the Jets, but it was a great season.

Chargers led league in red zone offense, 1st drive defense and were second in 1st drive scoring margin; they were 8th in takeaways, 3rd in giveaways, 4th in TO margin. At one point during season they won five games in a row as an underdog. One red flag is that San Diego was third in NFL, recovering 58.7% of all fumbles (27 of 46) in their games, meaning the ball bounced their way more than a few times in '04. Sometimes, those things even out in the coming seasons, so San Diego could slide a little in '05.

San Francisco 49ers-- Niners beat Arizona twice in OT last year, both by 31-28 scores; they were 0-14 in their other games, thats how bad they were. 49ers were 2-8 against spread in last ten games, as only one of their last nine losses was by less than ten points. Which is why the club cleaned house in the offseason. Not sure why they gave Mike Nolan the keys to the car, but they have.

Here is part of the mess he has to clean up: last in black zone (80+ yard drives) defense, 31st in turnover margin, 31st in giveaways, 27th in takeaways, 27th in first drive scoring margin, 26th in first drive yards, 27th in 3rd down conversion offense, 23rd in defense, 31st in its red zone offense. All in all, they were terrible. The first big thing for Nolan to decide will be how quickly to play Alex Smith, the rookie QB. Anything other than a last place finish will be a pleasant surprise on Candlestick Point.

Seattle Seahawks-- 2004 was disaster for Seattle, even though they won NFC West; they allowed their star RB to lose the rushing title by a yard, then lost home playoff game to St Louis; they were 0-3 vs Rams, blowing 28-10 lead at home in final 5:35 of regular season meeting, then losing 23-12 at Dome, when they scored just six points in three drives that started in Ram territory. In the playoff tilt their pass into the end zone on game's final play failed.

Seattle was 3-0 and very hot, but after their bye in Week 4, they lost three straight games, and were 6-7, with only one win (42-27 at 49ers) by more than seven points.

Oddly, Seattle was 2nd in NFL in scoring in both red and green zone drives, but in critical spots, they failed; their defense was just 29th in third down stops, and their QB has been bit of disappointment. For 2005, Holmgren will need to mend fences with Alexander, find a way to beat both the Rams and improved Cardinals, and score more in the red zone, when the game is on the line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-- Gruden started out 0-4 a year ago, as they failed to score TD on offense in the first two games of season; after rallying with 5-3 stretch, the roof fell in again, and Bucs lost last four games, allowing 25.3 ppg, very un-Buclike. They were 1-7 on road, winning at Superdome in Week 5. Bucs were 20th in takeaways, 24th in giveaways, so that has to improve. Everything has to improve, actually; this was a bad team in 2004.

Bucs were well-prepared (7th in first drive margin) but were poor offensively after that, as they still struggle to find QB Gruden is content to work with. They were 23rd in red zone scoring, 23rd in black zone and 22nd in green zone, so at no point did offense excel, except somewhat on first drives (T9th, pts). Buc defense is still strong, but not like in the Dungy days. People are frontrunners, and there are grumblings that Gruden won Super Bowl, but with Dungy's players. Stay tuned.

Tennessee Titans-- Tennessee went for it on fourth down 27 times last year (12-27, 44%), six more times than any other team; they used three onside kicks in game vs Indy, as Fisher showed he had no faith in his defense to shut down Colt offense that scored 82 points in pair of wins over Titans. At 5-11, Tennessee never won two games in a row, and held only one team below 100 yards rushing in second half of season.

They were 25th in third down conversions, as absence of McNair hurt; he missed seven games (2-5) and it remains a question whether he will ever play full season again. The tank job pulled by defense (allowed 39.2 ppg over last 5 games, yielding 20 TD's on 60 drives, does not bode well for this season, as salary cup pain hitting Titans this year. They were 29th in black zone (drives of 80+ yards) def. last year, allowing 47 points on 21 such drives. Not good.

Washington Redskins-- Skins were 2-8 last year when they allowed more than 10 points; they are terrific on the defensive side of ball (2nd in 3rd down defense, 1st in first drive defense (yards)- only four of 15 foes ran ball for 100+ yards against them), but not good on offense, as neither Brunell or Ramsey proved capable QB, and this spring's drafting of Campbell further muddles the picture.

To say game has passed Gibbs by is stupid; Washington was fifth in league in points scored on first drive of game, first in yards allowed- they outscored foes 55-37 on the first drive, so they were well-prepared team. The thing that may have changed most for Gibbs is how much more selfish today's player is (free agency). Skins were 1-5 in the division, losing pair of three-point decisions to Dallas. Second place is best they can hope for this season.

**Spark** · 07-10-2005, 02:05 PM

Hot pitchers
-- Florida scored 26 runs to win last four Leiter starts, but he has a 6.49 RA in his last five starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.37 in three starts this season. Capuano is 4-0, 3.65 in his last four starts.
-- Martinez is 5-2, 2.32 in his last nine starts.
-- Nationals won last four Loaiza starts (3-0, 2.25)
-- Francis is 3-0, 1.33 in his last three starts.
-- Suppan is 3-1, 4.44 in his last four starts.

-- Westbrook is 4-1, 3.44 in his last five starts. Bronx is 5-1 in last six Johnson starts, scoring 50 runs.
-- Wakefield is 4-0, 1.70 in his last five starts.
-- Royals are 5-2 in last seven Carrasco starts; he is 2-0, 4.50 in his last two outings. Twins won last six Silva tilts (4-0, 4.65), scoring 43 runs for him.
-- A's won last eight Haren starts (6-0, 3.03) White Sox won last nine Garcia starts; he is 2-0, 2.35 in last three outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Maddux is 2-3, 7.86 in his last five starts.
-- KWells threw shutout in last start, after being 0-4 his previous four starts, with an 11.88 RA.
-- Lieber is 0-4, 7.23 in his last five starts.
-- Backe is 1-3, 7.56 in his last five starts. Perez is 0-4, 6.17 in his last four starts.
-- Astacio makes first start for Padres; he was 1-7, 9.00 in his last eight starts for the Rangers.
-- Lowry is 1-2, 5.00 in his last three starts.
-- Gosling makes first '05 start; he is 0-2, 7.88 in eight IP in bigs this year; he was 3-4, 6.14 in 13 AAA starts. In his last eight starts, Milton is 1-4, 8.37.

-- Lopez is 0-3, 9.56 in his last three starts; he has 4.66 RA in three '05 starts vs Boston (1-1).
-- Young is 2-2, 8.24 in his last four starts. Towers has a 1-6, 5.98 mark in his last nine starts.
-- Maroth is 2-7, 5.20 in his last ten starts. In his last 7 starts, Hendrickson is 1-3, 9.00.
-- ESantana is 2-2, 7.85 in his last four starts. Meche is 0-2, 11.74 his last two starts; Seattrle lost five of his last six starts on the road.

Totals
Keep in mind that today is getaway day before a three-day vacation for players and umpires. Don't expect a lot of long, high-scoring games like we had last night.

-- Six of last eight Maddux starts went over the total.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Atlanta home games.
-- Over is 9-3-2 in last fourteen Met games, 9-2 in last eleven games at PNC Park.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Lieber starts.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine games at Minute Maid.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Colorado games.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Cardinal games.
-- Last five Diamondback games stayed under total.

-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Bronx home games.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 games at Camden Yards.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Texas home games.
-- Over is 5-1 in last six Carrasco starts.
-- Under is 14-4 in Maroth starts this season.
-- Under is 9-5 in last 14 White Sox home games.
-- Four of last five Angel games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Braves won ten of their last twelve home games.
-- Pirates won four of their last five games.
-- Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
-- Astros won seventeen of their last twenty-two games.
-- Rockies are 9-6 in their last fifteen home games.
-- St Louis is 8-4 in its last twelve road games.

-- Bronx scored 48 runs in winning 5 of last 6 games.
-- Boston is 10-3 in its last thirteen road games.
-- Texas won seven of its last ten games.
-- Royals won their last four games.
-- Tigers won four of their last six games.
-- A's are 25-11 in last 36 games, 7-4 last 11 road tilts. White Sox won four of last six games.
-- Seattle won first three games of series in Anaheim.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins are 8-13 in their last 21 home games.
-- Brewers are 7-13 in their last twenty road games.
-- Mets are 3-5 in their last eight games.
-- Phillies lost seven of last nine home games.
-- Dodgers lost fifteen of their last 19 road games.
-- San Diego lost ten of last fifteen road games.
-- Giants lost 14 of their last twenty home games.
-- Arizona is 7-17 in its last twenty-four home games. Reds lost nine of their last 14 games, but won last two. .

-- Indians lost four their last five games.
-- Orioles lost six of their last nine games.
-- Toronto allowed 19 runs in last two games; they are 1-9 in last ten games allowing 4+ runs.
-- Twins lost four of their last five games.
-- Devil Rays lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- Angels allowed 32 runs in their last four games, losing the last three in a row.

Umpires
-- Over is 13-2-2 in Montague games. (Cubs-Fla)
-- Dogs are 7-2 in last nine BWelke games, with the last four all going over total. (Mil-Atl)
-- Four of last five Young games stayed under, with dogs 3-1 in his last four. (NY-Pitt)
-- Under is 11-5 in last 16 Hirschbeck games.(Wsh-Phil)
-- Under is 11-4-3 in Vanover games, with dogs 4-2 in his last six, visitor winning last four. (LA-Hst)
-- Rookie ump Hoye has no trends yet. (SD-Col)
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Drake games, with last three going over the total. (StL-SF)
-- Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Hohn games, with the road team winning six of his last seven. (Cin-Az)

-- Under is 8-3 in last 11 Iassogna games. (Bos-Blt)
-- Under is 6-0-1 last seven Craft games. (Cle-NY)
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Dimuro games. (Tor-Tex)
-- Under is 11-3 in last 14 Barksdale games (Min-KC)
-- Favorite is 12-1 last 13 Timmons games. (Det-TB)
-- Visitor won four of last five Foster games, with dog winning his last three. (A's-Chi)
-- Dog is 5-4 in last nine Brinkman games, with visitor winning his last four games behind the plate. (Sea-LA

**Udog** · 07-10-2005, 07:15 PM

From post 2: From now until close to end of July, we will do analysis on NFL teams

Wow! This is great!! Thank you very much, Spark!! Is this the second day for your NFL analysis? If so, I'll go back and read what I missed yesterday.

Been having a tough week but pulled a bunch of winners from your Trends today!!!! Thanks again!

**Udog** · 07-10-2005, 07:17 PM

Never mind, Spark! You have already answered my question:
We will go in reverse alphabet order, which means we started in our nation's capitol.....
Thank you!

**bsa** · 07-11-2005, 12:03 AM

Spark Where Are You

SPARK E-MAIL ME TO MEET ME AND SHARK FOR A DRINK NO ACTION FOR THREE DAYS........(EXCEPT THE ASTAR GAME BIG DEAL) WE WILL MEET IN THIS TIME FRAME I LIVE IN HOMEWOOD AND YOU SAID SOUTH SUBS OF CHICAGO NOT TOO HARD TO FIGURE OUT.. LETS DO IT -

THANKS BUDDY [email protected]

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