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  • Trends Saturday

    MLB Baseball Trends

    Saturday, July 2nd

    National League:

    Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, 1:20 EST
    Horacio Ramirez (L) vs. Brett Myers (R)

    Ramirez - Atlanta 77-52 Over in day games over the last 3 seasons
    Myers - 23-5 TSR when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons

    Florida Marlins at New York Mets, 1:20 EST
    Brian Moehler (R) vs. Kris Benson (R)

    Moehler - 56-33 Under as an underdog since 1997
    Benson - 5-2 TSR vs. Florida with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP

    Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:05 EST
    Claudio Vargas (R) vs. Derek Lowe (R)

    Vargas - 4-19 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons
    Lowe - 24-9 Over as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons

    Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, 4:05 EST
    Tony Armas (R) vs. Jerome Williams (R)

    Armas - Washington 32-18 against right-handed starters this season
    Williams - Cubs 1-3 vs. Washington this season

    Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, 7:05 EST
    Zach Duke (L) vs. Victor Santos (R)

    Duke - Pittsburgh 20-15 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons
    Santos - 10-0 Under in night games this season

    **Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, 5:10 ESTGame 1
    Wandy Rodriguez (L) vs. Aaron Harang (R)

    Rodriguez - Houston 30-14 vs. Cincinnati over the last 3 seasons
    Harang - 25-10 Under in home games since 1997

    Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, 7:15 EST
    Jamey Wright (R) vs. Jason Marquis (R)

    Wright - Colorado 6-32 as a road underdog this season
    Marquis - St. Louis 21-5 in July over the last 2 seasons

    San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, 10:05 EST
    Jeff Fassero (L) vs. Woody Williams (R)

    Fassero - 1-5 TSR vs. San Diego with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.448 WHIP
    Williams - 39-6 TSR as a home favorite of -150 or more since 1997

    American League:

    **Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, 7:05 EST
    Gustavo Chacin (L) vs. David Wells (L)

    Chacin - n/a
    Wells - Boston 39-8 as a home favorite of -200 or more over the last 2 seasons

    Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles, 1:35 EST
    Kevin Millwood (R) vs. Daniel Cabrera (R)

    Millwood - 19-6 Under when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons
    Cabrera - 10-1 TSR against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons

    Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, 4:05 EST
    Chris Wilson (L) vs. Joel Pineiro (R)

    Wilson - Texas 28-10 on Saturday over the last 2 seasons
    Pineiro - 11-23 TSR over the last 2 seasons

    New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, 7:05 EST
    Mike Mussina (R) vs. Sean Douglass (R)

    Mussina - Yankees 8-17 with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games this season
    Douglass - Detroit 7-1 after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season

    Anaheim Angels at Kansas City Royals, 7:10 EST
    Bartolo Colon (R) vs. Jose Lima (R)

    Colon - Anaheim 15-5 when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons
    Lima - 0-12 TSR as an underdog of +150 or more this season

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Minnesota Twins, 7:10 EST
    Seth McClung (R) vs. Kyle Lohse (R)

    McClung - Tampa Bay 13-3 Over as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season
    Lohse - Minnesota 4-0 vs. Tampa Bay this season

    Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics, 9:05 EST
    Jon Garland (R) vs. Kirk Saarloos (R)

    Garland - 9-1 TSR in night games this season
    Saarloos - Oakland 16-5 Under vs. White Sox over the last 3 seasons

    Write-In Game:

    Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, 8:10 ESTGAME 2
    Ezequiel Astacio (R) vs. Ramon Ortiz (R)

    Astacio - n/a
    Ortiz - n/a


    **Denotes Time Change
    TSR = Team Start Record

  • #2
    Hot pitchers
    -- Mets are 5-1 in Benson home starts (3-1, 3.05).
    -- Ramirez is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
    -- JWilliams allowed two runs in seven IP in winning his first start for Cubs.

    -- Boston scored 47 runs in winning last six Wells starts (4-0, 3.35). Sox are 3-1 in his home starts.
    -- Millwood is 3-2, 2.33 in his last seven starts.
    -- Douglass won his first start, at Arizona, allowing one run in six IP. Mussina is 3-1, 3.29 his last four starts.
    -- Colon is 4-1, 3.60 in his last five starts.
    -- McClung lost his first '05 start 1-0 against the Marlins, tossing seven innings.
    -- Garland is 4-1, 3.57 in his last five starts. Saarloos is 3-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.


    Cold pitchers
    -- Myers is 1-1, 5.22 in his last five starts.
    -- Marlins scored total of ten runs in losing Moehler's last seven starts (0-5, 4.11)
    -- Vargas has 7.02 RA in three starts for Arizona, but Snakes scored 19 runs in winning last two starts. Lowe is 0-3, 6.57 in his last four starts.
    -- Armas is 0-4, 8.03 on the road this season.
    -- Santos is 0-4, 4.62 in his last six starts, as Brewers scored total of 11 runs for him. Duke makes first start; he was 12-3, 2.92 in sixteen AAA starts this season.
    -- Harang is 0-4, 6.83 in his last five starts. Ortiz is 2-5, 6.94 in his last nine starts. Rodriguez is 3-3, 6.86 in his seven '05 starts for Houston.
    -- Wright is 0-3, 7.08 in his last three starts; Rockies lost his last five road starts. Marquis is 0-2, 12.15 in his last three starts.
    -- WWilliams is 1-4, 3.72 in his last six starts. Fassero is 1-3, 7.11 in his last four starts.

    -- Chacin is 0-1, 9.23 in his last three starts.
    -- Cabrera is 0-3, 7.20 in his last four starts.
    -- Seattle lost last four Pineiro starts (0-1, 3.67). Wilson is 0-2, 10.80 in his first two starts this season.
    -- Lima is 1-6, 8.55 in sixteen starts this season; his one win was in his last home start.
    -- Lohse is 1-3, 5.79 in his last four starts.

    Totals
    -- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Ramirez starts.
    -- Over is 6-0-2 in last eight games at Shea Stadium.
    -- Under is 13-4 in last seventeen Dodger games.
    -- Five of last six Cub games stayed under the total.
    -- Last eleven Santos starts stayed under the total.
    -- Over is 15-3 in last eighteen Cincinnati home games
    -- Six of last seven Colorado road games stayed under.
    -- Five of last seven Petco games went over the total.


    -- Overis 8-4-1 in Wells starts this season.
    -- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cabrera starts.
    -- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Safeco games.
    -- Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen Detroit games.
    -- Six of last nine Angel road games went over total.
    -- Over is 15-3 in last 19 Tampa Bay road games.
    -- Over is 4-0-2 in last six Oakland games.


    Hot teams
    -- Braves won eleven of their last fifteen games.
    -- Marlins won four their last five road games. Mets are 7-3 in their last ten games overall.
    -- Dodgers are 9-3 in their last twelve home games.
    -- Nationals are 24-6 in their last thirty games.
    -- Brewers won five of their last six home games.
    -- Astros won ten of last thirteen games.
    -- Cardinals are 16-6 in their last 22 home games.
    -- Giants won their last four games, all on the road.


    -- Toronto is 4-1 in its last five road games.
    -- Indians won ten of last twelve road games.
    -- Angels won eleven of their last fourteen games.
    -- Twins won four of their last five games.
    -- A's are 17-3 in their last twenty home games. White Sox won eight of last ten road games, but are 3-19 in their last 22 games at Oakland. .


    Cold teams
    -- Phillies lost ten of their last twelve games.
    -- Arizona lost seven of its last nine road games.
    -- Cubs are 3-5 in their last eight games at Wrigley.
    -- Pirates are 5-16 in their last twenty-one road games.
    -- Reds were outscored 41-23 in last six games (0-5-1)
    -- Colorado is 6-32 on road, outscored 28-2 in the first inning of their road games.
    -- Padres are 7-12 in their last nineteen home games.


    -- Boston is 2-4 in its last six Fenway games.
    -- Orioles lost eight of their last nine games.
    -- Rangers lost seven of last 11 games; they're 2-9 in last 11 road games. Seattle lost their last six games, allowing a total of 39 runs.
    -- Tigers lost five of their last seven games. Bronx is 4-11 in its last fifteen road games.
    -- Royals lost eleven of their last thirteen games.
    -- Devil Rays lost six of their last seven games.


    Umpires
    -- Under is 11-5-1 in Everitt games, with the home side winning his last four (Atl-Phil)
    -- Under is 10-3-3 in Vanover games this year (Fla-NY)
    -- Underdog is 9-4 in Drake games, with over 4-1-1 in his last six games behind plate (Az-LA)
    -- Favorite is 11-2 last thirteen Onora games (Wsh-Chi)
    -- Visitor is 13-1 in Hohn games, with dog winning last four and seven of last nine staying under (Pitt-Mil)
    -- Dogs are 10-5 with Young behind plate; home side is 7-1 in last eight Cooper games (Astros-Reds DH)
    -- Favorite is 10-2 last 12 Foster games; over is 3-0-1 in his last four games behind the dish (Col-StL)
    -- Home team is 13-3 in Froemming games, with under
    7-3-1 in his last ten games behind plate (SF-SD)

    -- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Poncino games (Tor-Bos)
    -- Under is 5-2 in Hernandez ga,es with dogs winning five of his last six behind the plate (Clev-Balt)
    -- Under is 7-1 in last eight Reilly games, with dogs 5-4 in his last nine, host 6-1 in last seven (Tex-Sea)
    -- Dogs are 8-8 in Dimuro games, with three of last four staying under (NY-Det)
    -- Dogs is 7-6 in last thirteen Bucknor games, with home side winning his last four games (LA-KC)
    -- Favorite won last four Barrett games (TB-Min)
    -- Over is 11-1-2 last fourteen Montague tilts (Chi-A's)

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