Why I Don't Play Favorites in Baseball - A Lesson For Newbies

[TwoTonTony]

i agree with wayne's logic 100%......

i still play dogs here and there............most happen to be situational plays for me.......i feel much more comfortable laying -1.5 runs on the cards, angels, red sox or cws than taking a reach on a KC Royals team at +165......

this is the 1st year that i have found value in playing parlays.....i am no genius and have never picked a parlay on my own.....to do a parlay i do a few things

#1 - click on waynes picks
#2 - if there is a parlay that is a GS or HR i play it

* thats it...no more thought....

i am usually pretty good on ind. games, but i defer to waynes expertise when dealing with parlays and getting the price down!!!

i think the most important thing to recognize is your own strengths and weakenesses

[wayne1218]

Tony it's the way to go. You can take 2 teams like Minny and St Louis today and turn those big favorites into a +179 in a heartbeat. If you lose you NEVER get juiced at all and when you think about it yes, you could play them seperately but if you go 1-1 with that juice your still losing pretty much close to what you did on the parlay but 0-2 is devastating! 2-0 at +179 gets you almost what both of them would have paid on their own anyway if you played them seperately.

Sunday's have not been nice to me and today i lost some cabbage but overall it really pays off.

Chuck is excellent playing the -1 lines too, i just think some of them still end of having more juice than i want to pay. It's really whatever makes the individual feel comfortable and most importantly what makes us money.

I like going 2-2 or 2-3 and still claiming a profit if that happens. I've gone 2-4 and made money by making the wagers all nice + ones. In the old days playing bases i would go 3-2 and lose 2 units and i hated that feeling!

GL & Thanks buddy!

[TwoTonTony]

Wayne....going 2-3 and still being up units is like finding a $20 in the pocket of a pair of pants you throw on the next day after a nite of drinking.....it is a THRILL!!!!

[thesandman]

Well if nothing else this made for a good discussion. When I decided to post this, I was thinking of the guys who have cried here about how they lost playing a big favorite that should have won. I should have been more clear that I was referring to playing favorites straight. Today I parleyed St. Louis and the Angles at +168. Wayne is doing the same as I am, making all plays + ones. Of course, whatever you play you still have to pick the winning team. Today, for example, I only played one dog, Washington, which was the only dog I felt would win today. I don't recall ever seeing a day with a full card that all the favorites won.

[RJeremy]

I don't recall ever seeing a day with a full card that all the favorites won.

Well it has happened many many times. There have also been days where ALL dogs won. It's very rare, but it happens. Like we said, there will be favs. that win everyday, you just need to take one's with -140 or under and of course the easy part, pick the one's that WIN!!



GL today sandman

[rxpert]

i still think it's a great lesson for newbies. in any sport, you're better off looking for value in dogs than taking a fav. it's not my post, but i think he meant constantly taking 2:1 favs as opposed to <140 favs, or parlays, where you'll be about even $, or run lines which also drop near even $. they are NOT big favs. Also, it definitely becomes the individual's tolerance to risk level. very good thread. ty