the best system i see is the -play on a homer 603 or better wpct off 1 exact home loss if they lost ats by 13 or more and are not favored today by 9 or more. and there opp is 672 or less.. this play is on the spurs for 5 units. game 7 finals homers are 12-3 su. as far as the total i think it will go under. this game looks to be played like game 1 every shot contested,almost like you have to plan the shot before the ball gets to you. also dont think det will shoot 46% again. 3 units if total goes to 175 or more. 2 units 174 or less for me. the crowd bettwer get into this tonight. if spurs lose they will be the biggest choke since the yankees last year. for all purposes sant should already be eliminated ,if it werent for horry 3 pointer. again the key if detroit scores less than 90. sant has the best record this year in nba when holding teams under that margin. hows 90-81 sound spursa pull away late. bol gc-
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SPURS AT HOME AFTER A LOSS:
11/10 vs. GS:.....-15/176.5 ... SA 91 GS 71 Win/Under
11/24 vs. DAL:.....-9/183 ..... SA 94 DAL 80 Win/Under
12/11 vs. CLE:...-10.5/180..... SA 116 CLE 97 Win/Over
12/23 vs. MIN:....-6/186.5..... SA 96 MIN 82 Win/Under
1/4 vs. LAL:......-11/186...... SA 100 LAL 83 Win/Under
1/12 vs. MIL:....-15/190....... SA 94 MIL 79 Push/Under
1/17 vs. WAS:....-12/188.5..... SA 101 WAS 73 Win/Under
1/27 vs. SAC:....-10/190....... SA 90 SAC 80 Push/Under
3/12 vs. DEN:.....-7/184....... SA 87 DEN 90 Loss/Under
3/14 vs. NO:....-11.5/175...... SA 112 ATL 89 Win/Over
3/25 vs. ATL:...-12.5/186...... SA 111 ATL 95 Win/Over
4/2 vs. LAL:.....-8.5/191...... SA 95 LAL 94 Loss/Under
4/16 vs. MEM:...-9.5/180.5..... SA 97 MEM 80 Win/Under
SA 9-2-2 ATS at home after a loss . 10 unders 2 overs....the overs were
March games vs. ATL and NO...not really stellar D's and SA scored 110+
on both of them...big mismatch SA at home after a loss playing a team
that doesnt care. Also Duncan didnt play in the ATL game, which lead to
this:
**** Duncan did not play in games vs. DEN,ATL & LAL on 3/12,3/25,4/2
*****
Thats were both ATS losses occured.
Spurs at home after a loss WITH DUNCAN:
8-0-2 ATS (Wins by 20,14,19,14,17,18,23,22 .... pushes were wins by
10,15)
Under is 8-2 is these games.
There were 2 playoff games that were Spurs at home after a loss (again
NOT counting game 1 of the first round)
4/27 vs. DEN (gm2) ...... -8/190 ......... SA 104 DEN 76 Win/Under
5/17 vs. SEA (gm5) ....-11.5/186.5 ....... SA 103 SEA 90 Win/Over
So that 2 wins and split on the total.
Reg Season & Playoff combined SA at HOME after a loss WITH Duncan:
SA is 10-0-2 ATS (12-0 SU)
Under is 9-3 in these games
(Note one last time I am not counting Rd1 Gm1 of the playoffs as a SA
at HOME after a loss scenario)
Some quick other stats:
DET 8u2o last 10 on the road
DET 8o13u as a road dog
SA 19o31u as a home fave
DET 20o27u when opponent is off a loss
SA 20o30u when opponent is off a win
Analysis---The Under looks like the best play. Play the game in halfs to make the most money. Both teams have been evenly matched thruout the year. So First half -Play the Under. Then get a feel for second half on inspired play down the stretch of the second quarter. Detroit gets the nod in first half, because of the closeness of a defensive game presents and the points given to one team.
Detroit also has closed out 10 straight series. 10 straight is totally amazing and dynasty material. I know Spurs are able to pour it on once hot and they just may with Horry and Gino. Waiting till second half for details on fouls, officials, injuries and the big Mo. Good Luck all. Goin to dinna. SpearitLast edited by Spearit; 06-23-2005, 06:09 PM."The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.
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