Interesting trend/situation, please give input

[chinto]

Hey guys,

I noticed an interesting trend the past seven days. The home dog getting 120-130 not lower or higher is 15-0 from last thursday through last night. The line I used was based on the road favorite. I mentioned this to a few on the forum when it was 9-0 and I agree with there opinion that playing strictly by a trend is a bad idea. I agree but this might be something to look into.
My feelings are this. When the line is above 130 obviously you have a more dominant team and when the line is below 120 you have 2 teams that are close. I'm thinking when the line is between 120 and 130 favoring the road team it is because of the starting pitcher only. I believe the teams are evenly matched and the edge goes to the starter. Most of the general population plays based on the starting pictcher. If this is the case it may be something to look at.
I maybe totally off base here, but anything to give us an edge can't hurt.

Thanks,
Peter

[moondog22]

I'll have to keep a eye on this.Thanks Chinto

[BigWeiner]

I totally agree with that, always take the home team in what should be a close game, the starting pitchers usually won't come into play, and besides, most starters are better at home than on the road over the course of the season. Good research Chinto.

[BigWeiner]

We'll see how the Reds do tonight

[underdog51]

Personally I think 15 games is much to small a data base. I think you'll find this will reverse itself soon and become no more than a 50/50 prop especially given how well favorites usually do in baseball. It may work better when there is less of mismatch. Plus interleague play has occured recently where the home team may have an edge due to the DH factor? I believe I've seen some web sites where it lists records for different prices. If I come across it I'll post.

[chinto]

Good point. I didn't even consider the home advantage during IL play.
Thanks