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What I Did Wrong When Fading Shitty Road Dogs

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  • What I Did Wrong When Fading Shitty Road Dogs

    I know what I did wrong when fading the shitty road teams. Last week, there were four really shitty road teams, Tampa, Colorado, Houston and Cincinnati. At the time none of these four teams had more than 6 road wins, but only one of them Tampa, was playing away from home. Now here is where I went wrong. I faded the next two worst road teams, Kansas City and Oakland, to make a three team parley. Kansas City won 2 out of 3 AT Arizona and the A's won 2 0ut of 3 AT Atlanta. That killed everything last week but I learned an important lesson. Don't fade bad road teams that don't meet the following criteria, just to have more teams to fade.

    From now on, the only road teams I will fade are teams that have lost at least THREE times as many road games as they have won. For example, on the road, Houston is 7-25. Seven times THREE is 21 and Houston has lost 25 road games. Houston gets faded. Oakland is 10-24 away. Ten times THREE is 30, but the A's have lost only 24 away games, which is less than THREE times their road wins. I don't fade Oakland. If I don't have any of the really shitty road teams to fade, then I won't have any play. No more using the next worst road team instead.

    Last night I faded Colorado and Cincinnati, and my Boston to Cleveland parley won. I was too conservative last night and didn't fade Houston when I should have. So tonight I'm fading all three by playing a three team parley of Boston, Cleveland and Baltimore at +218.

    Fade parleys are now
    1-5
    Minus 3.73 units

    I have two dog plays for today and looking at the pitching matchups, it looks like I lost my mind, but I base my plays on other reasons. I'm going against Garland in one play and with Nomo in the other play. Time to see if my system can overide bad pitching matchups. I don't expect any of you will play these two dog plays, but I did. Let's see what happens.

    Todays Dog Plays
    Arizona +165
    Tampa Bay +124

  • #2
    Good Luck SandMan!!!
    "Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant'
    is like calling a drug dealer an 'unlicensed pharmacist'"

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    • #3
      Looks good Sandman, I think you'll be more successful by being more selective.. I will point out, however, that no team finished the 2004 season with 3 times as many losses as wins on the road. The closest was Arizona at 22-59. GL

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      • #4
        bol sandman

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        • #5
          ctt8410. Thanks. I know none did and I haven't figured out what to about that. I either need to adjust this a bit later on in the season or stop these fades altogether. If I need to adjust it too much, then I would lose the edge these fades are supposed to have. I think I could adjust it down to double the wins and still be OK, but not less than that. Even then, I would be adding only Seattle and Kansas City based on last year.

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          • #6
            Haha

            Originally posted by thesandman
            For example, on the road, Houston is 7-25. Seven times THREE is 21.
            Sandman, thank you for breaking this down, I was a little confused.

            ~~~ Tigger


            J/k buddy, keep up the good work.

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            • #7
              Best

              of Luck to you sandman!!! Maybe look for the crap road teams to WIN a road game THEN ADD 1.5 to your NEXT play against them! 2X if two of them win the same night!

              I played the Cleve/LAA parlay
              (WHY I WOULD EVER MAKE ANOTHER PLAY ON THE SORRY INDIANS IS BEYOND ME but even THEY should screw up completely vs the Rickets!!

              For the heck of it I added I added a play which is an OVER 11 at +118 for the TEXAS/ATL game
              with Chin Blows Dorks going against Davies who has been figured out now and is getting rocked after two great first starts.

              The 3rd play is the PALE PANTIES -1 R/L -127

              BEST OF LUCK TO YOU TONIGHT (but I must admit I usually play the home team to avoid the sweep EXCEPT for the DRAYS who are just that bad!

              GOOD LUCK SANDY!! Goldv
              I am NOT schizophrenic......and NEITHER am I! Just paranoid that fear may overcome my insanity!

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              • #8
                Good

                CaLL ON THE DRAYS! Sandy!!! Now watch for them to hit the road again and rack em in again reverse style!!! Keep tweaking the good system!!

                GOOOOOOOO ANGELS!!!!!! Like a nice sweep here myself although the Nataly Woods are downing me right now 1-0!

                BEST OF LUCK TOMORROW!! Gv
                I am NOT schizophrenic......and NEITHER am I! Just paranoid that fear may overcome my insanity!

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                • #9
                  GV. Pale Panties? I didn't figure this one out, unless you mean the White Sox. If you did, then you hit it because Arizona was my only loss tonight. Up 6-2 and a 10 run inning for the Chisox. Incredible. Before that inning, I was thinking both my dog plays, as bad as they looked, had a chance to win. At least I got my 3 team road fade parley, thanks to Cleveland showing some heart for a change.

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