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I know what I did wrong when fading the shitty road teams. Last week, there were four really shitty road teams, Tampa, Colorado, Houston and Cincinnati. At the time none of these four teams had more than 6 road wins, but only one of them Tampa, was playing away from home. Now here is where I went wrong. I faded the next two worst road teams, Kansas City and Oakland, to make a three team parley. Kansas City won 2 out of 3 AT Arizona and the A's won 2 0ut of 3 AT Atlanta. That killed everything last week but I learned an important lesson. Don't fade bad road teams that don't meet the following criteria, just to have more teams to fade.
From now on, the only road teams I will fade are teams that have lost at least THREE times as many road games as they have won. For example, on the road, Houston is 7-25. Seven times THREE is 21 and Houston has lost 25 road games. Houston gets faded. Oakland is 10-24 away. Ten times THREE is 30, but the A's have lost only 24 away games, which is less than THREE times their road wins. I don't fade Oakland. If I don't have any of the really shitty road teams to fade, then I won't have any play. No more using the next worst road team instead.
Last night I faded Colorado and Cincinnati, and my Boston to Cleveland parley won. I was too conservative last night and didn't fade Houston when I should have. So tonight I'm fading all three by playing a three team parley of Boston, Cleveland and Baltimore at +218.
Fade parleys are now
1-5
Minus 3.73 units
I have two dog plays for today and looking at the pitching matchups, it looks like I lost my mind, but I base my plays on other reasons. I'm going against Garland in one play and with Nomo in the other play. Time to see if my system can overide bad pitching matchups. I don't expect any of you will play these two dog plays, but I did. Let's see what happens.
Todays Dog Plays
Arizona +165
Tampa Bay +124
From now on, the only road teams I will fade are teams that have lost at least THREE times as many road games as they have won. For example, on the road, Houston is 7-25. Seven times THREE is 21 and Houston has lost 25 road games. Houston gets faded. Oakland is 10-24 away. Ten times THREE is 30, but the A's have lost only 24 away games, which is less than THREE times their road wins. I don't fade Oakland. If I don't have any of the really shitty road teams to fade, then I won't have any play. No more using the next worst road team instead.
Last night I faded Colorado and Cincinnati, and my Boston to Cleveland parley won. I was too conservative last night and didn't fade Houston when I should have. So tonight I'm fading all three by playing a three team parley of Boston, Cleveland and Baltimore at +218.
Fade parleys are now
1-5
Minus 3.73 units
I have two dog plays for today and looking at the pitching matchups, it looks like I lost my mind, but I base my plays on other reasons. I'm going against Garland in one play and with Nomo in the other play. Time to see if my system can overide bad pitching matchups. I don't expect any of you will play these two dog plays, but I did. Let's see what happens.
Todays Dog Plays
Arizona +165
Tampa Bay +124
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