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Will defense rule NBA Finals?
If you listen to the experts, you'd think the NBA Final will be such a defensive struggle that 37-34 might be the highest-scoring game of the series.
Listening to their advice, bettors might be enticed to pile their money on the UNDER when San Antonio, the league's best defensive team, hosts the defending champion Detroit Pistons in Game 1 tonight.
There's a compelling case to be made for predicting a low-scoring series. Piston center Ben Wallace is the defensive player of the year. Spur guard Bruce Bowen was runner-up. And three other Pistons and Spurs made the league's first or second All-Defensive teams.
But here's the problem for novice bettors and those getting swept up in the hype - oddsmakers know all of this as well. With all the hype and early money going to the UNDER, an artificially low total continues to sink lower.
But is it still good value?
The number opened as high as 179 in some offshore shops. Combine the fact San Antonio is 6-2 to the OVER their past six games at home. They ran over the century mark regularly against Phoenix and Seattle with the fact that both teams feature plenty of three-point bombers. Handicapper Rich Crew thinks that number is low.
Lines Effective 6/9/2005 2:47:33 PM - EST
NBA Basketball Game Spread MLine Total Points Team Totals
Thursday, June 09, 2005 9:05 PM PREVIEW | MATCHUP | INJURIES
(ABC) NBA Championship Game 1
701 Detroit Pistons +6 ½ -110 +260 O: 175 ½ -110
702 San Antonio Spurs -6 ½ -110 -320 U: 175 ½ -110
"I have heard the theories," he said Wednesday. "The Spurs will be rusty with a week off, the Pistons are a bit tired. Defense is easier than offense when you're rusty or tired. Whatever, it's the NBA Final, I will be surprised if both teams are not on the attack right away and firing three balls."
Now consider that the number has been bet down to 175 or lower in some books. The Spurs have scored 95 or better in 10 of their past 12 at home. But before their recent 3-1 OVER run at home, just two of their prior 16 home games played OVER.
"It`s going to be very tough to score, we all know that," said Spur swingman Manu Ginobili. "It`s not going to be 110-, 115-point games."
Probably not. But how about the Pistons on the road? They have tightened up and slowed the pace lately. The UNDER is 11-1-1 their past 13 on the highway.
And do the defensive matchups in both directions favor a low total?
Wallace will defend Tim Duncan. Logic would dictate the league's best interior defender can slow down the league's premier post player.
On the perimeter, gangly Piston Tayshaun Prince can slow down flashy Ginobili's forays into the lane. Wallace looms as a further discouragement. Bowen can make life difficult for Rip Hamilton, while Chauncey Billups is strong enough and quick enough to limit Spur guard Tony Parker.
But the matchup between the past two NBA champions - the Pistons took the title last season, while the Spurs won in 2003 - has two key numbers favoring San Antonio. The Spurs are 6.5-point favorites in Game 1, while some Vegas shops have opened them as fat -270 moneyline favorites to win the series.
Both teams were the preseason favorite to win their respective conferences, but both ended the season as the second-seeded team. The Spurs suffered through an injury to Duncan and finished three games back of an unexpectedly-strong Phoenix Suns team. The Pistons slumped to start the year, and recovered only enough to end up five games back of the Shaq-boosted Miami Heat.
The two teams split their regular-season series 1-1, with the Spurs winning 80-77 in December, and the Pistons picking up a 110-101 victory in a high-scoring March matchup.
In Round 1 of the playoffs, both teams cruised to 4-1 series wins. The Spurs handled the seventh-seeded Denver Nuggets, while the Pistons defeated an overmatched Philadelphia 76ers team.
In Round 2, both teams picked up 4-2 series wins. The Spurs won Games 5 and 6 to dispatch the Seattle SuperSonics, and the Pistons won the final three games of their set with the Indiana Pacers to send Reggie Miller into retirement.
And in Round 3, both teams eliminated their conferences' top seed. However, some separation can finally be seen here.
The Spurs needed just five games to get past the Suns in the Western Conference Finals, while the Pistons needed seven games (and an injury to Dwyane Wade) to eliminate the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. That means the Spurs have been resting and practicing for a week, while the Pistons will barely have time to catch their breath before the NBA Finals start. The Spurs also feature Duncan, the best player in the series. He has twice been named the Finals MVP.
The series stays in Texas for Game 2 on Sunday night, then shifts to Detroit for Games 3, 4, and 5 before heading back to San Antonio (if required) for Games 6 and 7.
If you listen to the experts, you'd think the NBA Final will be such a defensive struggle that 37-34 might be the highest-scoring game of the series.
Listening to their advice, bettors might be enticed to pile their money on the UNDER when San Antonio, the league's best defensive team, hosts the defending champion Detroit Pistons in Game 1 tonight.
There's a compelling case to be made for predicting a low-scoring series. Piston center Ben Wallace is the defensive player of the year. Spur guard Bruce Bowen was runner-up. And three other Pistons and Spurs made the league's first or second All-Defensive teams.
But here's the problem for novice bettors and those getting swept up in the hype - oddsmakers know all of this as well. With all the hype and early money going to the UNDER, an artificially low total continues to sink lower.
But is it still good value?
The number opened as high as 179 in some offshore shops. Combine the fact San Antonio is 6-2 to the OVER their past six games at home. They ran over the century mark regularly against Phoenix and Seattle with the fact that both teams feature plenty of three-point bombers. Handicapper Rich Crew thinks that number is low.
Lines Effective 6/9/2005 2:47:33 PM - EST
NBA Basketball Game Spread MLine Total Points Team Totals
Thursday, June 09, 2005 9:05 PM PREVIEW | MATCHUP | INJURIES
(ABC) NBA Championship Game 1
701 Detroit Pistons +6 ½ -110 +260 O: 175 ½ -110
702 San Antonio Spurs -6 ½ -110 -320 U: 175 ½ -110
"I have heard the theories," he said Wednesday. "The Spurs will be rusty with a week off, the Pistons are a bit tired. Defense is easier than offense when you're rusty or tired. Whatever, it's the NBA Final, I will be surprised if both teams are not on the attack right away and firing three balls."
Now consider that the number has been bet down to 175 or lower in some books. The Spurs have scored 95 or better in 10 of their past 12 at home. But before their recent 3-1 OVER run at home, just two of their prior 16 home games played OVER.
"It`s going to be very tough to score, we all know that," said Spur swingman Manu Ginobili. "It`s not going to be 110-, 115-point games."
Probably not. But how about the Pistons on the road? They have tightened up and slowed the pace lately. The UNDER is 11-1-1 their past 13 on the highway.
And do the defensive matchups in both directions favor a low total?
Wallace will defend Tim Duncan. Logic would dictate the league's best interior defender can slow down the league's premier post player.
On the perimeter, gangly Piston Tayshaun Prince can slow down flashy Ginobili's forays into the lane. Wallace looms as a further discouragement. Bowen can make life difficult for Rip Hamilton, while Chauncey Billups is strong enough and quick enough to limit Spur guard Tony Parker.
But the matchup between the past two NBA champions - the Pistons took the title last season, while the Spurs won in 2003 - has two key numbers favoring San Antonio. The Spurs are 6.5-point favorites in Game 1, while some Vegas shops have opened them as fat -270 moneyline favorites to win the series.
Both teams were the preseason favorite to win their respective conferences, but both ended the season as the second-seeded team. The Spurs suffered through an injury to Duncan and finished three games back of an unexpectedly-strong Phoenix Suns team. The Pistons slumped to start the year, and recovered only enough to end up five games back of the Shaq-boosted Miami Heat.
The two teams split their regular-season series 1-1, with the Spurs winning 80-77 in December, and the Pistons picking up a 110-101 victory in a high-scoring March matchup.
In Round 1 of the playoffs, both teams cruised to 4-1 series wins. The Spurs handled the seventh-seeded Denver Nuggets, while the Pistons defeated an overmatched Philadelphia 76ers team.
In Round 2, both teams picked up 4-2 series wins. The Spurs won Games 5 and 6 to dispatch the Seattle SuperSonics, and the Pistons won the final three games of their set with the Indiana Pacers to send Reggie Miller into retirement.
And in Round 3, both teams eliminated their conferences' top seed. However, some separation can finally be seen here.
The Spurs needed just five games to get past the Suns in the Western Conference Finals, while the Pistons needed seven games (and an injury to Dwyane Wade) to eliminate the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. That means the Spurs have been resting and practicing for a week, while the Pistons will barely have time to catch their breath before the NBA Finals start. The Spurs also feature Duncan, the best player in the series. He has twice been named the Finals MVP.
The series stays in Texas for Game 2 on Sunday night, then shifts to Detroit for Games 3, 4, and 5 before heading back to San Antonio (if required) for Games 6 and 7.
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