3 Wise Men Report Wednesday 6/8/05

[frankb03]

Frank,

Just wondering about this strategy. If you go 2-2 on the four plays, you lose 5 parlays and hit just 1. Because these were all high lines, the winning parlay would pay only a bit more than even money (a little more if the two smaller favs hit). This is different in football or hoops as at least your winning parlay would pay 13/5 and help offset the other 5 losses. While you are right in that going 3-1 makes it a winning proposition, would the 3WM ever release a round robin as an official play knowing that a 2-2 or 1-3 day makes it a net 4 (depending on the lines) to 6 unit loss or is this just something you do on your own? Thanks.

Coverboy and I were talking about this strategy. IMO it minimizes the risk.

If all 4 teams win I'll win a good amount but less than one 4-team parlay. If 3 of 4 win I'll show I nice profit while I'd lose a 4-team parlay. If I split I win one parlay losing money but I would get killed. If 3 of 4 loss I loss all parlay bets but It's the same loss as if only 1 team lost.

[Kaptain]

Frank B---in lieu of a 4 teamer, a 2 team round robin is the way to go...agree with you there...You can stand 3 out of 4 that way....

Melon---Lat nights Scores and odds---early lines at 11:52 PM EST was indeed Florida -140...This is the lines we use to utilize our K-factor Dunkel formula, the use our own (Pinnacle for me) when wagering...kapt

Thanks for the good eye---Like CB said, the line at -170 definitely changes things...kapt

[BAMABOY]

GL Wisemen ! TY for your hard work !

[BackDoorCvr]

Coverboy and I were talking about this strategy. IMO it minimizes the risk.

If all 4 teams win I'll win a good amount but less than one 4-team parlay. If 3 of 4 win I'll show I nice profit while I'd lose a 4-team parlay. If I split I win one parlay losing money but I would get killed. If 3 of 4 loss I loss all parlay bets but It's the same loss as if only 1 team lost.

Thanks Frank but what do you mean by "If 3 of 4 loss I loss all parlay bets but It's the same loss as if only 1 team lost." If one team loses in a bird you still make some money, if one team loses in a 4 team parlay you only lose your wager (assuming 1 unit) but if you lose 3 of 4 in a bird you lose all 6 parlays totaling 6 units. Maybe I'm not catching your point here.

[ctt8410]

I think the idea is that if you play a round-robin instead of a parlay then each individual bet of the round robin is for 1/6 of what the parlay bet would risk. So you still stand to lose at most 1 unit.

[BackDoorCvr]

I think the idea is that if you play a round-robin instead of a parlay then each individual bet of the round robin is for 1/6 of what the parlay bet would risk. So you still stand to lose at most 1 unit.

So you'd have to bet a $17 round robin instead of a $100 4 team parlay to have the same $100 risk if you happen to go 1-3? Should you hit all 4 the payoff is significantly less than the 4 teamer at $100 would be. Just curious is all. Thanks.

[CoverBoy]

With the public betting Dontrell and The Marlins like they have tomorrow's newspaper in their hands I'm reiterating that I like Seattle +185 on the ML for a light snack. ( Regardless of the error by Scores and Odds last night )

The game will be closer than anticipated ( 1* Seattle on the RL is a Starred Play ... The posted O/U is 7 1/2 )

[scla99]

CB,

Could you try to play this with Fla ML in parlay with SD and a straight Sea RL play? Thanks again. You guys have been great. I was visitng my parents in NY last week and it was hotter in NY than in LA on Sunday.

[CoverBoy]

scla99

Hiya SC -- Damn near 100 degrees here today on the North Shore of Long Island .

No opinion on S.D / Cleveland.

A Florida (-200) and Seattle (+1 1/2 -125) Middle Attempt is not unreasonable, especially with the Hi / Low at 7 1/2. You cant get hurt with that procedure so I'm not opposed to it.

Let me know what you wind up doing .

Best of Luck US

-cb

[frankb03]

Neil, I'm liking the Brewers more and more. As the betting public keeps chasing the Yanks figuring they have to win sooner or later we've been cleaning up fading the Yanks. We've had plays on KC (RL), Minny and now Milw. We've really have padded our bankroll. Thanks to the Yanks and the betting public driving the line to our advantage.

[scla99]

CB,

I am going to try a Fla/SD parlay with Sea on RL. There have been days where I will parlay two huge favs for $200 and attempt to hedge it with a ML play on the dog like Sea just to be safe. If I win I the parlay then I make about $100 and if I lose the parlay and hit dog then lose only $20. Is this a stupid play?

[CoverBoy]

FrankieB

We betting against the Yanks until they tell us to stop.

Later on this season we will make dough on them when everyone is avoiding them because they will hate them.

They're still in Spring Training .. Sooner or later Jeter will call a team meeting ... they'll wink at one another ... and then reel off 17 or 18 wins out of 20. Hopefully we'll be right there with them.

( I'm not a Yankee fan ... I'm not a fan of any player or any sports team ... OK maybe Jim Edmonds ... LOLOLOLOL I know you know that )

[CoverBoy]

scla99

Not sure of what you're planning ...

a 2 Team Parlay Fla / SD

and

a separate play Seattle RL


OR

3 teamer ... Fla ML / SD ML / Seattle RL

If it's a 3 Teamer you're looking at , then you'll HAVE to middle the Fla / Seattle game to hit the Parlay. I don't like that option.

Please clarify.

Thanks

Neil

[scla99]

Neil,

Sorry about that. What I meant was a 2-teamer with Fla and SD. Then a Sea RL play.

[CoverBoy]

No Problem SC ... just know that you can lose both propositions if SD loses and Florida wins by 2 or more.

When we get hot ( right now we're warm ) there will be lots of Fazools on your doorstep by playing the Star Rated Sides.

If you want to dabble a little with the hook ups ... ok but please dont allow them to dilute your profits from the Stars.

Nail this one tonight Ok !!

As Always, Good Luck